The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 1: Characteristics and control

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland comprised 177 infected premises (IPS) in 24 geographical clusters, and ran from March 1 until May 23, 2001. Initial seeding of infection was by livestock (predominantly sheep) that had passed through Longtown Market in adjacent Cumbria. Thereafter, spread within existing, and to new, clusters was associated with the movement of personnel and vehicles, with further transmission by Longtown Market contacts and across common boundaries. Sheep and cattle premises were equally affected. After the peak of the epidemic at the beginning of the third week of March, the upper possible limit of attack rates for premises contiguous to IPS, and premises within 3 km, remained around 10 per cent, with new clusters emerging more distantly. Control procedures included traditional methods of slaughter of all animals on IPS and, elsewhere, of animals considered by veterinary assessment to be Dangerous Contacts; movement restrictions; enhanced biosecurity; tracing of potential sources and spread of virus; and surveillance of premises subsequently considered at risk. These methods were supplemented by the novel pre-emptive slaughter, without veterinary assessment, of all susceptible livestock on all premises contiguous to IPS, and of small ruminants and pigs within a 3 km radius (known as the Protection Zone) around IPS. In total, approximately 80,000 cattle, 564,000 sheep, 2600 pigs and 500 goats were slaughtered, the novel methods accounting for 29 per cent of all cattle and 75 per cent of all sheep killed. Limitations of existing national databases necessitated the development of local databases to administer control procedures.     

Comparison of different control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease: a study of the epidemics in Canada in 1951/52, Hampshire in 1967 and Northumberland in 1966

The measures used to control the epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease in Canada in 1951/52 (29 outbreaks) were compared with those used in the epidemic in Hampshire in 1967 (29 outbreaks). In both epidemics the disease spread more from premises where the disease was reported late and the imposition of quarantine or restrictions on infected premises was delayed. In Hampshire, area restrictions were imposed, susceptible livestock on infected premises and on premises in direct contact were slaughtered, and contacts were traced. In Canada, the initial diagnosis was vesicular stomatitis, no area restrictions were imposed, no tracing was carried out and the animals on infected premises were allowed to recover. However, apart from the disease's spread through infected meat and by unknown or airborne routes, it did not spread from infected premises once quarantine was imposed, partly owing to the low population density of livestock in the area. The effects of the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts in the Fareham area of Hampshire in 1967 and in the Chathill area of Northumberland in 1966 were compared with what might have happened if, in addition, culling on contiguous premises or culling on premises within 3 km or emergency vaccination had been put into effect. The slaughter of cattle, sheep, goats and pigs on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would have resulted in fewer outbreaks and a shorter period to complete slaughter, but more animals would have been slaughtered. In the Chathill area, the slaughter of sheep, goats and pigs only on premises within 3 km two days after confirmation of the first outbreak would not have resulted in fewer outbreaks and more animals would have been slaughtered. Fewer premises and animals would have been slaughtered by a contiguous cull than by a 3 km cull but more than by the slaughter of infected premises and direct contacts. Emergency vaccination within 3 km, providing protection at four days (but not to animals already infected before the development of immunity), would have resulted in the fewest animals being slaughtered and could have reduced the number of outbreaks in the Fareham area by one and in the Chathill area by two or three. All the procedures would have had a greater effect the sooner they were introduced. However, with many foci of infection, priorities for action would have had to have been established. Earlier tracing of the last outbreak in the Fareham area could have shortened the Hampshire epidemic. Surveillance of a farm identified as at risk through animal movements and by the use of an airborne-prediction model could have eliminated the source of further outbreaks in the Chathill area.     

Relationship of speed of slaughter on infected premises and intensity of culling of other premises to the rate of spread of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

During the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001, two major control policies were the rapid identification of cases and the culling of animals on infected premises and on dangerous contact premises. Dangerous contact premises were divided into two groups, premises contiguous to an infected premises and non-contiguous premises. In England, the largest numbers of geographically clustered infected premises were in Cumbria, the South West (Somerset, Devon and Cornwall) and the Settle/Clitheroe area straddling the Yorkshire-Lancashire border. In each of these clusters, the rate of spread of the disease, the average time from the first lesion to slaughter on infected premises, and the intensity of culling of contiguous premises and non-contiguous premises were calculated for seven-day periods. Linear regression analysis was used to look for relationships between these factors and the rate of spread of the disease. The average time from the first lesion to slaughter had a statistically significant relationship in two of the three clusters and the intensity of culling of non-contiguous premises had a significant relationship in one. The intensity of culling of contiguous premises had no significant relationship in any of the three clusters.     

Risk of foot-and-mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled.     

Evaluation of the application of veterinary judgement in the pre-emptive cull of contiguous premises during the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Cumbria in 2001

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the application of contiguous culling in Cumbria between May 1 and September 30, during the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2001. The analysis shows that the application of veterinary risk assessment and judgement identified and removed groups of susceptible stock which were at risk of direct transmission of infection and avoided infected animals being left that might have spread the disease. When compared with an automatic contiguous cull, fewer culls were made and some of these were reduced in scale, providing economies in the use of resources. The data suggest that farms contiguous to an infected premises faced a 5 per cent risk of infection by direct transmission and a 12 per cent risk of infection by indirect transmission.     

Evaluation of the benefit of emergency vaccination in a foot-and-mouth disease free country with low livestock density

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.     

The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in domestic pig herds lead to the implementation of standard control measures according to legislative regulations. Ideal outbreak control entails the swift and efficient culling of all pigs on premises detected positive for CSF virus. Often all pig holdings around the detected cases are pre-emptively destroyed to exclude transmission into the neighbourhood. In addition to these measures, zones are defined in which surveillance and protection measures are intensified to prevent further distant disease spread. In particular, all movements are prohibited within standstill areas. Standstill also excludes the transport of fattened pigs to slaughter. Historical outbreaks provide evidence of the success of this control strategy. However, the extent to which the individual strategy elements contribute to this success is unknown. Therefore, we applied a spatially and temporally explicit epidemic model to the problem. Its rule-based formulation is tailored to a one-by-one model implementation of existing control concepts. Using a comparative model analysis the individual contributions of single measures to overall control success were revealed. From the results of the model we concluded that movement restrictions had the dominant impact on strategy performance suggesting a reversal of the current conceptual thinking. Additional measures such as pre-emptive culling only became relevant under imperfect compliance with movement restrictions. The importance of movement restrictions for the overall control success illustrates the need for explicit consideration of this measure when contingency strategies are being amended (e.g. emergency vaccination) and associated risks assessed.     

Monte Carlo simulation of classical swine fever epidemics and control. I. General concepts and description of the model

A Monte Carlo simulation has been developed to describe the spread of classical swine fever virus between farms within a certain region. The data of the farms can be imported and considered individually. Transmission occurs via the infection routes direct animal and indirect person and vehicle contact, as well as by contaminated sperm and local spread. Parameters, such as incubation period and probability of detection, can be varied by the user and their impact on disease spread can be studied. The control measures stamping-out, movement control and pre-emptive slaughter in circular restriction areas as well as contact tracing can be applied and their effect on disease spread can thus be analysed. The numbers of culled and restricted farms and animals per epidemic and per day within an epidemic, the epidemic duration and the total length of restrictions per restricted farm are given. In an example, simulation runs were performed under the condition of application of all four-control measures. Because no real farm data were available, a test area was generated stochastically with a farm density of 1.3 farms/km(2). The distributions of the number of infected farms per epidemic and the epidemic length are shown.     

Disease conditions diagnosed in culled adult cattle sent to an abattoir either with or without a veterinary certificate

Lesions were detected in 208 culled cattle examined at a slaughterhouse. Eighty-two of them had a veterinary certificate, and 30 of these had been slaughtered on the farm. The principal diagnoses included lameness (88 cases), mastitis (35), chronic infections (32), complications of parturition (20) and fractures and dislocation (14). Most of the 126 animals sent for slaughter by farmers without a veterinary certificate were suffering from lameness (71), mastitis (29) or chronic infections (18). Over 90 per cent of the animals with complications of parturition or traumatic injury had a veterinary certificate. The carcases of 33 (26 per cent) of the animals sent for slaughter without a veterinary certificate were rejected by the meat inspector, and 29 (35 per cent) of those with a veterinary certificate were rejected; the difference was not statistically significant.     

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.     

Relationship of trade patterns of the Danish swine industry animal movements network to potential disease spread

The movements of animals were analysed under the conceptual framework of graph theory in mathematics. The swine production related premises of Denmark were considered to constitute the nodes of a network and the links were the animal movements. In this framework, each farm will have a network of other premises to which it will be linked. A premise was a farm (breeding, rearing or slaughter pig), an abattoir or a trade market. The overall network was divided in premise specific subnets that linked the other premises from and to which animals were moved. This approach allowed us to visualise and analyse the three levels of organization related to animal movements that existed in the Danish swine production registers: the movement of animals between two premises, the premise specific networks, and the industry network. The analyses of animal movements were done using these three levels of organisation. The movements of swine were studied for the period September 30, 2002 to May 22, 2003. For daily movements of swine between two slaughter pig premises, the median number of pigs moved was 130 pigs with a maximum of 3306. For movements between a slaughter pig premise and an abattoir, the median number of pigs was 24. The largest percentage of movements was from farm to abattoir (82.5%); the median number of pigs per movement was 24 and the maximum number was 2018. For the whole period the median and maximum Euclidean distances observed in farm-to-farm movements were 22 km and 289 km respectively, while in the farm-to-abattoir movements, they were 36.2 km and 285 km. The network related to one specific premise showed that the median number of premises was mainly away from slaughter pig farms (3) or breeder farms (26) and mainly to an abattoir (1535). The assumption that animal movements can be randomly generated on the basis of farm density of the surrounding area of any farm is not correct since the patterns of animal movements have the topology of a scale-free network with a large degree of heterogeneity. This supported the opinion that the disease spread software assuming homogeneity in farm-to-farm relationship should only be used for large-scale interpretation and for epidemic preparedness. The network approach, based on graph theory, can be used efficiently to express more precisely, on a local scale (premise), the heterogeneity of animal movements. This approach, by providing network knowledge to the local veterinarian in charge of controlling disease spread, should also be evaluated as a potential tool to manage epidemics during the crisis. Geographic information systems could also be linked in the approach to produce knowledge about local transmission of disease.     

How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals (‘stamping out’), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.     

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control

In this paper, we simulate outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, USA - after the introduction of a state-wide movement ban - as they might unfold in the presence of mitigation strategies. We have adapted a model previously used to investigate FMD control policies in the UK to examine the potential for disease spread given an infection seeded in each county in Pennsylvania. The results are highly dependent upon the county of introduction and the spatial scale of transmission. Should the transmission kernel be identical to that for the UK, the epidemic impact is limited to fewer than 20 premises, regardless of the county of introduction. However, for wider kernels where infection can spread further, outbreaks seeded in or near the county with highest density of premises and animals result in large epidemics (>150 premises). Ring culling and vaccination reduce epidemic size, with the optimal radius of the rings being dependent upon the county of introduction. Should the kernel width exceed a given county-dependent threshold, ring culling is unable to control the epidemic. We find that a vaccinate-to-live policy is generally preferred to ring culling (in terms of reducing the overall number of premises culled), indicating that well-targeted control can dramatically reduce the risk of large scale outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease occurring in Pennsylvania.     

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies

Using the spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model InterCSF, several alternative pre-emptive slaughter strategies that could have been applied in the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–1998 were evaluated. Furthermore, effects of changes in some disease-spread and disease-control parameters were studied. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and contacts (animals, transport and persons). Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms (e.g. depopulation of infected farms, pre-emptive slaughter, movement control). The starting point for the evaluation of strategies was a simulated basic scenario, which mimicked the real epidemic. Strategies were compared using epidemiological as well as economic results. Economic results were generated by a separate model (EpiLoss) that calculated the direct losses and consequential losses for farmers and related industries. The comparison of the different alternatives to the basic scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF-epidemic. Pre-emptive slaughter seemed to be an effective strategy to reduce the size of an epidemic, if started at an early stage. Economically, pre-emptive slaughter was not as expensive as expected; the resulting smaller size of the epidemic, combined with less welfare slaughter, led to much lower overall losses. Furthermore, although large movement control areas seemed effective in reducing the size of the epidemic, the total losses were relatively high because of subsequent welfare slaughter. If infection probabilities could be reduced, for example by improved biosecurity, the resulting epidemics would be much smaller.     

Factors associated with the early detection of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

An essential objective of an effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) eradication campaign is to shorten the infectious period by rapidly detecting and destroying cases of disease. The purpose of our investigation was to identify factors associated with the early detection of clinical FMD during the 2001 outbreak in the United Kingdom. We performed a logistic regression analysis, using early versus late detection of disease as the outcome of interest.During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom, infected premises were more likely to be detected early under the following circumstances: 1) cattle (particularly dairy) were infected rather than sheep; 2) a recently confirmed infected premises was within 3 km of the new case; and 3) the case was initially reported by the farmer, rather than a Local Disease Control Centre-initiated surveillance activity (patrol, tracing, pre-emptive cull). Our findings suggest that reporting by farmers and initiatives that increase farmer education and awareness should be encouraged.     

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic of 2001 in the UK: implications for the USA and the "war on terror"

While there is no evidence to suggest that the recent epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (Fmd) in the Uk and its subsequent spread to continental Europe were caused by bioterrorism, the extent of the epidemic shows that Fmd could be a very powerful weapon for a bioterrorist wishing to cause widespread disease in livestock and economic disruption for the targeted country. This paper describes the epidemic. It then examines the contentious issues that arose through the use of extensive slaughter to control the epidemic and explores how, in turn, the concerns of society are being translated into a radical change in policy within the European Union with respect to the control of Fmd and other foreign animal diseases. The crisis generated by the Fmd epidemic in Europe in 2001 provides many lessons to be learned for the US and highlights the need for creative thinking in research and teaching within colleges of veterinary medicine to more effectively address the threat of epidemic diseases under the "new world order." There is general agreement that the veterinary profession in the US plays a unique role in protecting the nation against epidemic livestock diseases, whether caused naturally or through bioterrorism. The profession also has a significant role in protecting the public's health, since several epidemic diseases of animals, such as rift valley fever, are zoonotic. However, improved financial support at the federal and state levels is urgently needed to support epidemic-diseases research and teaching in colleges of veterinary medicine.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

The classical swine fever epidemic 1997-1998 in The Netherlands: descriptive epidemiology

The objective of this paper is to describe the severe epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands in 1997–1998 under a policy of non-vaccination, intensive surveillance, pre-emptive slaughter and stamping out in an area which has one of the highest pig and herd densities in Europe.

The primary outbreak was detected on 4 February 1997 on a mixed sow and finishing pig herd. A total of 429 outbreaks was observed during the epidemic, and approximately 700 000 pigs from these herds were slaughtered. Among these outbreaks were two artificial insemination centres, which resulted in a CSF-suspect declaration of 1680 pig herds (mainly located in the southern part of The Netherlands). The time between introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) into the country and diagnosis of CSF in the primary outbreak was estimated to be approximately 6 weeks. It is presumed that CSFV was spread from The Netherlands to Italy and Spain via shipment of infected piglets in the beginning of February 1997, before the establishment of a total stand-still of transportation. In June 1997, CSFV is presumed to be introduced into Belgium from The Netherlands.

Pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located in close vicinity of infected herds, was carried out around the first two outbreaks. However, this policy was not further exercised till mid-April 1997, when pre-emptive slaughter became a standard operational procedure for the rest of the epidemic. In total, 1286 pig herds were pre-emptively slaughtered. (approximately 1.1 million pigs). A total of 44 outbreaks (10%) was detected via pre-emptive slaughter.

When there were clinical signs, the observed symptoms in infected herds were mainly atypical: fever, apathy, ataxia or a combination of these signs. In 322 out of 429 outbreaks (75%), detection was bases on clinical signs observed: 32% was detected by the farmer, 25% by the veterinary practitioner, 10% of the outbreaks by tracing teams and 8% by screening teams of the veterinary authorities. In 76% of the outbreaks detected by clinical signs, the farmer reported to have seen clinical symptoms for less than 1 week before diagnosis, in 22% for 1–4 weeks before diagnosis, and in 4 herds (1%) the farmer reported to have seen clinical symptoms for more than 4 weeks before diagnosis.

Transportation lorries played a major role in the transmission of CSFV before the primary outbreak was diagnosed. It is estimated that approximately 39 herds were already infected before the first measures of the eradication campaign came into force.

After the first measures to stop the spread of CSFV had been implemented, the distribution of the most likely routes of transmission markedly changed. In most outbreaks, a neighbourhood infection was indicated.

Basically, there were two reasons for this catastrophe. Firstly, there was the extent of the period between introduction of the virus in the region and detection of the first outbreak. As a result, CSFV had opportunities to spread from one herd to another during this period. Secondly, the measures initially taken did not prove sufficient in the swine- and herd-dense region involved.     

Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte–Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1–10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.