Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ipspini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km² and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.     

我国栓皮栎分布及其生态学研究

栓皮栎作为广泛分布的树种之一,在全球气候变化的大环境下,成为研究树木生长应对气候变化的重要树种。文中分析了我国栓皮栎水平分布和垂直分布的特点及其与气候的关系,栓皮栎在不同地区的森林类型,主要包括栓皮栎纯林、松栎混交林、栎类混交林等类型;综述了我国对栓皮栎生态学、群落结构、更新等研究的最新进展和主要结论;提出今后开展栓皮栎研究的重点和方向,以期为栓皮栎生理生态学及其对气候变化响应研究提供参考。     

Drought and fire suppression lead to rapid forest composition change in a forest-prairie ecotone

Altered fire regimes and increased drought can lead to major vegetation changes, especially in ecotones. A decrease in fire can lead to woody species encroachment in prairies and increasing forest stand density. The threat of global climate change raises questions about potential increases in the length, severity, and incidence of droughts substantially altering species composition. Re-measured upland forests in south-central North America's midcontinent forest-prairie ecotone exhibited major changes in woody species composition and structure over fifty years and successional trajectories appeared to favor invasive Juniperus virginiana L. over the previous dominant Quercus species. The objective of this study was to determine whether climate and fire exclusion affected the recruitment history of dominant woody species in these upland forests located near the xeric western edge of the eastern deciduous forest biome of North America. We removed cores and cross-sections from 992 J. virginiana, Quercus marilandica Münchh. and Q. stellata Wangenh. trees from eleven forest stands located across central and northwest Oklahoma, and determined their ages using standard dendrochronological methods. Recruitment of all species increased following a severe mid-20th century drought, but a rapid increase in J. virginiana recruitment and decrease in Quercus recruitment appeared to be linked to a decrease in fire. Future fire regime changes and increased drought due to global climate change could lead to widespread shifts from Quercus- to Juniperus- dominated forests and cause substantial changes to ecosystem services.     

Should we respect the historical reference as basis for the objective of forest restoration? A case study from Northeastern China

Under climate change, the adoption of historical reference as the objective of forest restoration is being questioned. In this study, the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to analyze how the forest landscape in the upper Hun River area of Liaoning province in northeast China would be affected under current climate trends and future climate change; and to explore whether the historical reference should be the objective of restoration efforts. The results showed that (1) the area percentage (AP) of Quercusmongolica under climate change is always higher than that under the current climate regime, while the AP of Pinuskoraiensis is lower than that under current climate; and (2) the competitive ability of Q. mongolica and Populus davidiana increases, while that of other species decreases under climate change. As interspecies competition shifts under climate change, the historical reference appears in appropriate to serve as the objective of forest restoration. In addition, although Q. mongolica would likely benefit from a warmer and drier climate, use of this species for forest restoration under climate change still requires further research.     

Photosynthetic temperature adaptation of Pinus cembra within the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps

? Temperature is suggested to determine the upper limit of tree life. Therefore, future climate warming may be of importance for tree distribution within the European Alps, where low temperatures limit carbon metabolism.

? We focused on the effects of air and soil temperature on net photosynthesis (P _n) of Pinus cembra an evergreen climax species of the timberline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps. Light response and temperature response curves were estimated along an altitudinal gradient ranging from the forest limit up to the krummholz limit in both summer and fall.

? In general, P _n was significantly lower in fall as compared to summer. Nevertheless, independent from season mean P _n values tended to increase with elevation and were positively correlated with root zone temperatures. The specific leaf area by contrast declined with increasing elevation. Furthermore, the temperature optimum of net photosynthesis declined with increasing elevation and was positively correlated with the mean maximum air temperature of the 10 days prior the date of measurement.

? Thus, our findings appear to reflect a long-term adaptation of the photosynthetic apparatus of Pinus cembra to the general temperature conditions with respect to elevation combined with a short term acclimation to the prevailing temperature regime.

     

The pollen record of a 20th century spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak in a Colorado subalpine forest,USA

The frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbance, including outbreaks of forest insects and forest fires, is expected to increase in the future as a result of higher temperatures and prolonged drought. While many studies have concentrated on the future climatic impacts on fire, little is known about the impact of future climate on insect infestation. Paleoecological techniques are important in this regard in identifying the potential relationships between climate and insect outbreaks in the past, as a predictive tool for the future. We examine a high-resolution 20th century record of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) infestation from a small, subalpine lake, comparing the paleoecological record to the historical and tree-ring record of the event. An extensive spruce beetle outbreak occurred in northwestern Colorado during the 1940s and 1950s, causing widespread mortality of mature Picea engelmannii. Pollen analysis of this period documents the decline of Picea and its replacement locally by Abies lasiocarpa, paralleling age and composition studies of modern forest stands in the region. This study is a proof of concept that, when applied to longer sedimentary records, could produce a detailed record of infestation for the Late Holocene or older time periods. This information will be useful to forest managers in efforts to plan for the effects of D. rufipennis infestations, and subsequent succession within high elevation conifer forests.     

Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey: future evaluation

This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability.     

Growth responses of West-Mediterranean Pinus nigra to climate change are modulated by competition and productivity: Past trends and future perspectives

Positive and negative effects of climate change on forest growth have been observed in different parts of the world. However, much is still unknown about how forest structure and productivity might affect climate-growth relationships in the future. We examined the effects of climate, site quality, and competition on tree basal area growth of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) between 1964 and 2005 in 21 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. We used a new approach to simultaneously account for climate-growth relationships, inter-annual growth variability, and stand structural changes, by fitting a linear mixed effects model (LMEM) for basal area increments (BAI) using climate data, tree-ring chronologies, and repeated forest inventory data. This approach showed the potential to improve our understanding of climate effects on tree growth and to include climate in empirical forest growth models. We used the LMEM to make projections of BAI growth under two CO₂ emission scenarios and two global circulation models (GCM). The main climate drivers for growth were precipitation from previous autumn to summer and winter temperature with a positive effect, and temperature in spring-summer which had a negative effect. Tree response to climate was modulated by stand conditions, tree competition, and productivity. The more productive stands showed greater ability to either maintain or increase growth at warmer spring-summer temperatures under different levels of autumn-summer precipitation. Growth projections showed important regional differences. In general, growth under future climate is predicted to decrease although moderate growth increases might be expected in the northern region for highly and moderately productive stands.     

Process-based modelling of the severity and impact of foliar pest attack on eucalypt plantation productivity under current and future climates

We examined the impacts of a defoliating pest, Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), on rotation-length Eucalyptus globulus plantation productivity under current and future climates by using the ecoclimatic species niche model CLIMEX to generate severity, frequency and seasonality scenarios for MLD for specific E. globulus sites. These scenarios were used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. Climate projections from two global climate models were used to drive CABALA with either no or full acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated atmospheric CO₂ assumed. In addition we varied water and nitrogen availability to examine the impacts of different severities of MLD on plantation productivity across environmental gradients. We predicted that, under current climatic conditions, rotation-length reductions in V associated with MLD damage would be no greater than 12%, with an across-site average of 6%. There was considerable between-site variation in predictions that reflected variation in site productivity. Under future climates, we predicted that MLD may reduce rotation length V by as much as 42%, although the reduction averaged across all sites was 11%. The predicted impact of MLD on V was greatest at lower productivity sites. The importance of N and water availability in recovery following MLD attack was highlighted. Uncertainty in model predictions revolved around the climate models used and assumptions of degree of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO₂. Large differences in predicted impact of MLD were associated with this uncertainty. Our results suggest that the effects of defoliation due to pests on plantation productivity should not be ignored when considering future management of forest plantations. The approach developed here provides managers with a tool to appraise risk and examine possible impacts of management interventions designed to reduce or manage risk.     

Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

Modelling the management of fragmented forests: Is it possible to recover the original tree composition?: The case of the Maulino forest in Central Chile

In the fragmented Maulino forest (in Central Chile), differences in the relative frequencies of species between seedlings and mature trees are strong indicators of a changing replacement dynamics in the community. Stationary Markov chain models predict that the future tree composition such Maulino forest fragments will differ from that of continuous, intact forest. We found that the persistence probability was highest for Aristotelia chilensis and lowest for Nothofagus glauca. These two tree species are the most affected by fragmentation, and changes in their abundances appear to be the main drivers of the long-term change in stand composition. The aim of our study was to test if the management of just these two species would be sufficient to avoid long-term changes in the composition of forest fragments or would recover their composition toward a state more similar to the continuous forest. For this purpose, we constructed a Markov matrix model from published information, and calculated the future stable stand composition under different management simulations: (1) reduction of A. chilensis recruitment, (2) increased recruitment of N. glauca, and (3) a combined treatment. To evaluate the effectiveness of management treatments, the future composition of fragments was compared with the composition expected for continuous (i.e., undisturbed) Maulino forest. We performed a sensitivity analysis of the stable composition in order to assess the intensity of changes in the future composition driven by the treatments, and to determine to what extend the recruitment of other coexisting species contributes to changes in relative frequencies of A. chilensis and N. glauca.     

Sap flow characteristics and whole-tree water use of Pinus cembra across the treeline ecotone of the central Tyrolean Alps

Whole-tree water use of nine Pinus cembra trees was estimated in the treeline ecotone of the Central Austrian Alps. Sap flow density using Granier-type thermal dissipation probes and environmental parameters was monitored along an elevational gradient from the forest limit up to treeline and finally mediating the krummholz limit throughout two growing seasons. Normalized sap flow density (Q _s) was significantly correlated with solar radiation (R _s) and vapor pressure deficit (D) throughout the treeline ecotone. Multiple regression analysis indicated that at the forest limit and at treeline, D had a similar effect on Q _s than R _s. At the krummholz limit by contrast, D had a greater effect on Q _s than R _s due to partially stomatal closure and wind-induced clustering of the needles, which impaired their response to available irradiance. Whole-tree water use scaled to crown surface area estimated for an entire growing (172 days) declined from 449 mm at the forest limit to 274 mm at treeline and was 251 mm at the krummholz limit, which is within the values estimated for other European forest ecosystems. Nevertheless, the observation above the forest limit in the central Tyrolean Alps tree transpiration scaled to crown surface area is comparable to the water use of adjacent low-stature vegetation, which should also be taken into account when forecasting potential effects of global change on the water balance of the treeline ecotone.     

Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China

Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species composition and size structure. In this study, the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain, which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, under three climate change scenarios. The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla, Tsuga chinensis, and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios, as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis, which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change, three responses of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed, such as dieback of today’s forest at 2200 and 3150 m, gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m, and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty, in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest, but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climate change.     

Driving factors for natural tree rejuvenation in anthropogenic pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests of NE Germany

The rejuvenation ecology of three main tree species in anthropogenic pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests is explored in our study. We focus on the scale of micro-plots, which provide the safe sites for tree rejuvenation. We thrive on the multi-factorial relationship of tree establishment and driving ecological factors using a large dataset from pine stands in NE Germany and applying multivariate analyses. The success of the establishment of the investigated focal tree species Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea Liebl. and Pinus sylvestris L. is, on general, mostly affected by three factors, i.e. water balance of the upper soil layers, browsing pressure, and diaspore sources. Our investigations on the micro-plot scale revealed species-specific differences. For beech saplings <50 cm growth height, primarily the availability of water, indicated by available water capacity (AWC), thickness, quality, and structure of the organic layer, silt and humus content in the topsoil, and the lack of a dense competitive herb layer, were identified as most important factors. On the contrary, oak seems hardly be restricted by hydrologic and/or trophic deficits in the topsoil or humus layer. In conclusion and comparison to Fagus sylvatica L., we assume for Quercus petraea Liebl. advantages in natural regeneration processes under sub-continental climate conditions and thus under the scenarios of climate change. Pinus sylvestris L. regeneration in our investigation area occurs only in a narrow niche. We conclude with regard to future forest development and the objective of stand conversion with low management intensity that oak should be favoured within natural stand regeneration.     

Increased mortality can promote evolutionary adaptation of forest trees to climate change

Forecasts of rapid climate change raise the question how quickly species can evolutionarily adapt to future climates. The adaptability of forest trees to environmental changes is generally promoted by high levels of genetic diversity and gene flow, but it can also be slowed down by long generation times and low mortality of established trees. Here, we investigate the adaptation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Silver birch (Betula pendula) to climate change induced prolongation of the thermal growing season. We use quantitative genetic individual-based simulations to disentangle the relative roles of mortality, dispersal ability and maturation age for the speed of adaptation. The simulations predict that after 100 years of climate change, the genotypic growth period length of both species will lag more than 50% behind the climatically determined optimum. This lag is reduced by increased mortality of established trees, whereas earlier maturation and higher dispersal ability had comparatively minor effects. The evolutionary lag behind environmental change shown in our simulations stresses the importance of accounting for evolutionary processes in forecasts of the future dynamics and productivity of forests. Sensitivity of the adaptation speed to mortality suggests that species experiencing high mortality rates as well as populations subject to regular disturbances such as storms or fires might be the quickest to adapt to a warming climate.     

Climate-sensitive modelling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

The aim of the presented research project is to fit a site index model capable for predicting changes in site-productivity in a changing climate. A generalized additive model is used to predict site index as a function of soil and climate variables. The climate parameter values are estimated using the regional climate model WETTREG, based on global climate simulations with the global circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM for the reference period from 1961 to 1990. The climate values are further regionalized on a 200 m × 200 m grid. The generalized additive model quantifies the partial linear and non-linear effects of the predictor variables on site index. The model is parameterized for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Lower Saxony, Germany. Two case studies investigate the model's ability to generate information in order to support forest management planning decisions under a changing climate. One example analyzes the possible shift in site index of spruce along a precipitation gradient under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario A1B in the period from 2041 to 2050. The other case study shows possible future changes in site index of beech along a temperature gradient.     

不同改造措施对马尾松低效林土壤活性有机碳的影响

通过马尾松低效林改造试验,研究了不同改造措施(全砍重造(QKCZ)、封山育林(FSYL)和补植混交(BZHJ))对土壤有机碳和活性有机碳的影响.结果表明:马尾松低效林改造后土壤有机碳(SOC)、微生物量碳(MBC)、水溶性有机碳(DOC)和易氧化碳(EOC)含量分别比未改造的马尾松低效林(对照,CK)增加了1.06～3.30 g·kg-1、16.81～142.29 mg·kg-1 (P ＜0.05)、12.83～43.71 mg· kg-1(P＜0.05)和0.16 g～0.54 g·kg-1(P＜0.05);不同改造措施马尾松林土壤活性有机碳占土壤有机碳的比例大小顺序,微生物量碳/有机碳(MBC/SOC)为FSYL＞ CK＞ QKCZ＞ BZHJ,易氧化碳/有机碳(EOC/SOC)为CK＞ BZHJ＞ FSYL＞ QKCZ,水溶性有机碳/有机碳(DOC/SOC)为BZHJ＞ CK＞ FSYL＞ QKCZ.说明3种马尾松低效林改造措施中QKCZ的土壤有机碳稳定性最好,更有利于土壤有机碳固存.     

Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.     

Pertinence of reactive,active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management under climate change

Key message

Pertinence of alternative adaptation strategies to business as usual, namely reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies, can be evaluated by incorporating the expected costs and benefits of adaptation, climate change uncertainty, and the risk attitudes of decision-makers.

Context

Forest management is used to coping with risky and uncertain projections and estimates. However, climate change adds a major challenge and necessitates adaptation in many ways.

Aims

This paper highlights the dependency of the decisions on adaptation strategies to four aspects of forest management: (i) the costs of mitigating undesirable climate change impacts on forests, (ii) the value of ecosystem goods and services to be sustained, (iii) uncertainties about future climate trajectories, and (iv) the attitude of decision-makers towards risk (risk aversion level).

Methods

We develop a framework to evaluate the pertinence of reactive, active, and robust adaptation strategies in forest management in response to climate change.

Results

Business as usual may still be retained if the value of the forest and cost of climate impacts are low. Otherwise, it is crucial to react and facilitate the resilience of affected forest resources or actively adapt in advance and improve forest resistance. Adaptation should be robust under any future climate conditions, if the value of the ecosystem, the impacts from climatic changes, and the uncertainty about climate scenarios are very high.

Conclusion

The decision framework for adaptation should take into account multiple aspects of forest management under climate change towards an active and robust strategy.

     

Quantifying the sources of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions of insect disturbances in an uncertain climate

Key message

Natural disturbance can disrupt the anticipated delivery of forest-related ecosystem goods and services. Model predictions of natural disturbances have substantial uncertainties arising from the choices of input data and spatial scale used in the model building process, and the uncertainty of future climate conditions which are a major driver of disturbances. Quantifying the multiple contributions to uncertainty will aid decision making and guide future research needs.

Context

Forest management planning has been able, in the past, to rely on substantial empirical evidence regarding tree growth, succession, frequency and impacts of natural disturbances to estimate the future delivery of goods and services. Uncertainty has not been thought large enough to warrant consideration. Our rapidly changing climate is casting that empirical knowledge in doubt.

Aims

This paper describes how models of future spruce budworm outbreaks are plagued by uncertainty contributed by (among others): selection of data used in the model building process; model error; and uncertainty of the future climate and forest that will drive the future insect outbreak. The contribution of each to the total uncertainty will be quantified.

Methods

Outbreak models are built by the multivariate technique of reduced rank regression using different datasets. Each model and an estimate of its error are then used to predict future outbreaks under different future conditions of climate and forest composition. Variation in predictions is calculated, and the variance is apportioned among the model components that contributed to the epistemic uncertainty in predictions.

Results

Projections of future outbreaks are highly uncertain under the range of input data and future conditions examined. Uncertainty is not uniformly distributed spatially; the average 75% confidence interval for outbreak duration is 10 years. Estimates of forest inventory for model building and choice of climate scenario for projections of future climate had the greatest contributions to predictions of outbreak duration and severity.

Conclusion

Predictions of future spruce budworm outbreaks are highly uncertain. More precise outbreak data with which to build a new outbreak model will have the biggest impact on reducing uncertainty. However, an uncertain future climate will continue to produce uncertainty in outbreak projections. Forest management strategies must, therefore, include alternatives that present a reasonable likelihood of achieving acceptable outcomes over a wide range of future conditions.