南方型杨树人工林直径和断面积预估模型的研究

对南方型杨树的主栽无性系I-63杨、I-69杨、I-72杨的直径生长过程进行了差异性检验,结果3个无性系的平均相对误差分别为0.34%、-3.89%和4.23%,直径生长过程表现出良好的相似性。采用不分无性系的混合建模方法建立了南方型杨树人工林断面积直径预估模型-Dg=0.968 1H01.361 4N-0.032H00.540 2,从而得到林分断面积预估模型G=0.000 073 607N02.722 8N1-0.064H00.540 2。     

A review of stand basal area growth models

Growth and yield modeling has a long history in forestry. The methods of measuring the growth of stand basal area have evolved from those developed in the U.S.A. and Germany during the last century. Stand basal area modeling has progressed rapidly since the first widely used model was published by the U.S. Forest Service. Over the years, a variety of models have been developed for predicting the growth and yield of uneven/even-aged stands using stand-level approaches. The modeling methodology has not only moved from an empirical approach to a more ecological process-based approach but also accommodated a variety of techniques such as: 1) simultaneous equation methods, 2) difference models, 3) artificial neural network techniques, 4) linear/nonlinear regres-sion models, and 5) matrix models. Empirical models using statistical methods were developed to reproduce accurately and precisely field observations. In contrast, process models have a shorter history, developed originally as research and education tools with the aim of increasing the understanding of cause and effect relationships. Empirical and process models can be married into hybrid mod-els in which the shortcomings of both component approaches can, to some extent, be overcome. Algebraic difference forms of stand basal area models which consist of stand age, stand density and site quality can fully describe stand growth dynamics. This paper reviews the current literature regarding stand basal area models, discusses the basic types of models and their merits and outlines recent progress in modeling growth and dynamics of stand basal area. Future trends involving algebraic difference forms, good fitting variables and model types into stand basal area modeling strategies are discussed.     

A first-approximation simple dynamic growth model for forest teak plantations in Gujarat state of India

Tectona grandis (teak) is one of the most important tropical timber species occurring naturally in India. In India, teak is the single most important commercial timber species. Scientifically sound growth models, based on advanced modelling techniques, are often not available, although they are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country. Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a dynamic growth model based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 15 teak sample plots in Gujarat state of India. A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model is presented, which uses the state-space approach for modelling rates of change of dominant height, stand density and stand basal area. A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularly well suited to situations where available data are scarce.     

A basal area increment model for individual trees growing in even- and uneven-aged forest stands in Austria

Because of the gradual shift from pure even-aged forest management in central Europe, existing yield tables are becoming increasingly unreliable for forest management decisions. Individual tree-based stand growth modeling can make accurate stand growth predictions for the full range of conditions between pure even-aged and mixed-species uneven-aged stands. The central model in such a simulator is basal area increment for individual trees. Spatial information is not needed, and age and site index are intentionally not used to gain generality for all possible stand conditions. A basal area increment model is developed for all the main forest species in Austria: spruce (Picea abies), fir (Abies alba), larch (Larix decidua), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), black pine (Pinus nigra), stone pine (Pinus cembra), beech (Fagus silvatica), oak (Quercus robur, Quercus petraea and Quercus cerris), and for all other broadleaf species combined. The Austrian National Forest Inventory provided 5-year basal area increment from 44 761 remeasured trees growing on 5416 forested plots in the 1980s. This large sample is representative of forest conditions and forest management practices throughout Austria and therefore provides an excellent data base for the development of an increment model. The resulting increment model explained from 20 to 63% of the variation for all nine species and from 33 to 63% of the variation if the minor species Pinus cembra is excluded. These results compared quite closely with those of Wykoff for mixed conifer stands in the Northern Rocky Mountains. In the Austrian model, size variables (breast height diameter and crown length) accounted for 14–47% of the variation in basal area increment, depending on tree species. The best competition measure was the basal area of larger trees, which provides a tree-specific measure of competition without requiring spatial information; crown competition factor provided only minor improvement. Competition variables accounted for 9% of the variation on average, and up to 15% for some species. Topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect) explained up to 3% of the variation, as did soil factors. Remaining site factors; such as vegetation type and growth district accounted for a maximum of 3% of the variation in increment. In total, site factors explained from 2 to 6% of the variation. Even though site factors account for a small percentage of the variation, they are not only significant, but serve to localize a particular prediction. These species-specific interrelationships between basal area increment and the various size, competition, and site varibles correspond quite well with ecological expectations and silvicultural understanding of these species in Austria. Because the sample base is so strong, the resulting growth models can be recommended not only for all of Austria but for surrounding regions with similar growth conditions.     

Modelling dominant height growth in plantations of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Spain

A model for predicting dominant height growth and site index of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Spain was constructed. Data from stem analysis of 117 site trees were used. Four dynamic equations using the algebraic difference approach (ADA) and its generalisation (GADA), which have provided good results in previous studies, were evaluated. The model parameters were estimated with the base?age?invariant method of dummy variables, which considers both global (common to all sites) and local parameters (specific to each site). A GADA equation based on the Bertalanffy–Richards base model yielded the best results. The model provides polymorphic curves with multiple asymptotes. A base age of 20 years is proposed to reference site index.     

林分动态生长模型的研究

The stand growth and yield dynamic models for Larch in Jilin Province were developed based on the forest growth theories with the forest continuous inventory data. The results indicated that the developed models had high precision, and they could be used for the updating data of inventory of planning and designing and optimal decision of forest management.     

基于哑变量的湿地松林分断面积生长模型

[目的]为更好地估测福州市湿地松人工林林分断面积生长情况,同时为湿地松人工林的经营提供参考依据.[方法]基于样地调查数据选用理查德方程、逻辑斯蒂、Mitscherlich和Schumacher等基础模型,引入优势木平均高和年龄因子为自变量并将林分密度指数作为密度指标加入到基础断面积模型中.在最优基础模型中引入哑变量,建...     

A site index model for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. var. latifolia) in northern Sweden

A model was developed for predicting site index (SI) values and top height growth of lodgepole pine in northern Sweden. Data on 169 experimental plots from 61 experiments were used for model construction. Six dynamic site equations derived using the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) were tested. All of the equations estimate height and SI values on the basis of a known height and total age, and are base-age invariant. Unbiased parameter estimates were obtained by non-linear modelling without accounting for autocorrelation of residuals. The special formulation of the Hossfeld model and the GADA-transformed logistic function produced the most reliable SI curves. The Hossfeld model is recommended as it did not produce extreme outlying estimates for young stands. The developed model is polymorphic with variable asymptotes and can predict SI and dominant height growth for lodgepole pine between 20 and 50 years old.     

抚育间伐对辽东山区3种林型林分总断面积和总收获量的影响

利用几十年的定位观测数据,分析了抚育间伐对辽东山区红松人工林、天然次生蒙古栎林和人工诱导的阔叶红松林3种林型林分总断面积和总收获量的影响。结果表明:与对照区相比,抚育间伐没有提高红松人工林的林分断面积和蓄积总生长量,但极强度和强度间伐能提高红松人工林的林分断面积生长率。林分总断面积随着间伐强度的增加先升高后降低,各间伐强度均能提高林分总断面积,极强度间伐除外。抚育间伐能提高红松人工林林分蓄积生长率,弱度区除外;红松人工林林分总收获量随着间伐强度的增加先升高后降低,各间伐强度均能提高林分总收获量,中度间伐效果最好。抚育间伐能提高蒙古栎林林分断面积和蓄积总生长量、生长率以及林分总断面积和总收获量,各指标随着间伐强度的增加先升高后降低,中度间伐效果最好。抚育间伐能提高人工诱导的阔叶红松林林分断面积和蓄积总生长量、生长率以及林分总断面积和总收获量,林分断面积和蓄积总生长量、林分总断面积和林分总收获量随着间伐强度的增加而升高,林分断面积和蓄积生长率随着间伐强度的增加先升高后略有降低,强度间伐效果最好。可见,合理的间伐强度能够提高3种林型的林分总断面积和总收获量。     

印度热带干旱地区沙漠柚木(Tecomella undulata)同龄林极限林分密度与基面积模型

对用于评价印度拉贾斯坦邦热带干旱区沙漠柚木极限林分密度的公式进行了研究。对5个不同密度的林分基面积预测模型进行测试和比较,这些模型属非线性生长函数的轨迹不变量代数差形式。这些模型可根据林分变量,如优势高／公顷、立木数／公顷,预测林分基面积,还可用于评估不同造林方案。利用所收集的22块样地的数据建立模型。使用各种可能的树龄数据结构,用定性和定量标准比较了这些替代模型。使用Akaike信息准则差异统计来分析各种模型的预测能力。结果表明：Hui和Gadow提出的模型预测效果最好,推荐在本研究区域内使用该模型来预测沙漠柚木林分基面积。但是,此模型并未使用间伐林分数据,因此,不能准确地预测林木有明显自然死亡的林分基面积。     

Development of a linear mixed-effects individual-tree basal area increment model for masson pine in Hunan Province,South-central China

ABSTRACT

An individual-tree basal area increment model was developed for masson pine based on 26276 observations of 13,138 trees in 987 sample plots from the 7th (2004), 8th (2009), and 9th (2014) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Hunan Province, South-central China. The model was built using a linear mixed-effects approach with sample plots included as random effects since the data have a hierarchical stochastic structure and biased estimates of the standard error of parameter estimates could be a consequence of applying ordinary least square (OLS) for regression. In addition, within-plot heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation were also considered. The final mixed-effects model was determined according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), log-likelihood (Loglik), and the likelihoodratio test (LRT). The results revealed that initial diameter (DBH), the sum of the basal area (m²/ha) in trees with DBHs larger than the DBH of the subject tree (BAL), number of trees per hectare (NT), and elevation (EL) had a significant impact on individual-tree basal area increment. The mixed-effects model performed much better than the basic model produced using OLS. Additionally, the variance structure of the model errors was successfully modeled using the power function. However, the autocorrelation structures were not defined because there was no autocorrelation amongst the data. It is believed that the final model will contribute to the scientific management of the masson pine.     

基于混合效应的湖南马尾松次生林单木生长模型

[目的]建立湖南省马尾松次生林单木断面积与材积生长模型,为林木的生长预估提供理论依据.[方法]以湖南省2014年一类清查样地中的20块马尾松次生林为研究对象,选取5个具有生物学意义的生长方程,建立马尾松断面积和材积随年龄变化的基础模型,在此基础上,加入以样地为随机效应的随机参数,构建基于混合效应的湖南马尾松次生林单木断...     

A simple step-wise procedure for predicting stand development of Acacia mangium plantations based on the maximum size–density line in South Sumatra, Indonesia

A simple step-wise procedure for predicting the course of stand development on log–log coordinates of stand density and quadratic mean diameter was presented based on a distance of measurement from the maximum size–density line of Acacia mangium. This procedure first predicts annual increment of diameter with a multiple linear regression having the distance, site index, and current diameter as independent variables, and then the associated mortality is calculated with the rate of reduction in stand density to the diameter growth derived from a fitted trend with the distance. The cumulative predictions, starting at 3 years after planting until 9 years of age, agreed well with the observations of group-age means of measurements calculated for the three levels of initial density. Contrasting trend of basal area growth between the three levels of initial density and those for their site index: the differences were decreasing in the former while they remained constant in the latter, was clearly illustrated with the procedure indicating a good potential for use in yield prediction. The simulations for stand growth under different spacing and thinning options were demonstrated in a stand density control diagram suggesting reasonable flexibility for practical application.