农民资金互助社中关系型贷款技术应用的研究

为了检验新农村金融组织--农民资金互助组织,在发放农户贷款过程中关系型贷款技术的运用情况。以苏北L村农村农户调查数据为基础,运用有序Logistic回归模型和多元回归模型检验了是否拥有互助会业务以及业务龄长这两个“软信息”代理变量对农户贷款金额与频率的影响。实证结果显示：农户“软信息”代理变量与农户从资金互助组织获得贷款的金额和频率有显著的正向影响。表明农民资金互助组织在农户贷款决策中使用了以“软信息”为基础的关系型贷款技术,这有利于增加农户贷款的可得性,缓解农户融资难题。     

The Shifting Destinations of Metropolitan Migrants in the U.S., 2005–2011

Recent estimates that central cities are growing faster than their suburbs in the U.S. have captured the attention of both academics and the popular media. Many commentators have used these numbers to claim that internal migration trends in the U.S. have reached a turning point, in which migrants increasingly prefer urban residences to suburban locales. However, these assertions often rely on problematic definitions of city and suburb, and pay too little attention to demographic variations among migrants. This paper examines whether recent internal migrants in the U.S. are choosing closer‐in destinations, drawing from microdata samples from the American Community Survey since 2005. During this period, there is an overall trend of migrants to the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. choosing to migrate closer to the metropolitan core. However, this trend varies significantly among major demographic groups; whereas younger, single, educated, and white‐collar migrants show evidence of a return to the core, migrants who are blue‐collar, less‐educated, older, and with families remain more suburban. In turn, this analysis suggests that overall trends of “back to the city” migration are producing considerable divergence in the metropolitan destinations of different demographic groups.     

Growth and Change in U.S. Cities and Suburbs

Differential rates of growth and decentralization are processes that characterized U.S. urban areas over the past three decades. This paper examines the determinants of growth in cities and suburbs during the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 1990s. The modeling approach adopted in the study allows for simultaneity between population and employment, and between cities and suburbs, while also taking into account a range of other explanatory factors. Results indicate that population and employment growth in cities tend to be jointly determined, but that growth of employment in the suburbs tends to drive growth of suburban population. Results also suggest that suburban and city growth are interrelated, but that the nature of these interrelationships varies over time: suburban growth promoted city growth during the 1970s and 1980s, while city and suburban growth were jointly determined during the 1990s. Other factors that consistently explain variation in city growth include demographics, population density, crime rates, and income inequality. Factors consistently explaining suburban growth include regional location and climate.     

Does a Rising Tide Lift All Metropolitan Boats? Assessing Poverty Dynamics by Metropolitan Size and County Type

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between U.S. metropolitan county employment growth and poverty. Differential job growth–poverty linkages are found across metropolitan size and type of county. Own‐county employment growth significantly reduces central‐county poverty in large metropolitan areas relative to suburban county poverty. Compared with larger metropolitan areas, broader metropolitan‐wide job growth has more poverty reducing benefits in medium and smaller metropolitan areas, suggesting fewer metropolitan‐wide job‐accessibility constraints. The results suggest that targeted place‐based efforts to spur job growth may help reduce poverty.     

The Impact of City/Suburban Location on Moving Plans: A Cincinnati Study

ABSTRACT In order to improve the ability of central-city policymakers to retain middle-income families, this paper tests for the importance of city/suburban location as well as other background characteristics in explaining variations in moving plans. Stepwise discriminant analysis is applied to a mailed questionnaire sample of 1,738 households who purchased homes in Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Ohio, during the first half of 1986. The city buyers’ greater propensity to move reflected compositional effects, with younger households purchasing modest homes. Contrary to what was expected, recent city buyers with urban tastes did not have strong attachments to their location. The implications of these and other results to stem outmigration flows are discussed.     

高原城市贵阳市臭氧浓度的多尺度变化特征及与气象条件的关系

摘 要：相较于中东地区,贵阳市大气环境较为清洁,且O3的变化有待开展深入研究。笔者通过对贵阳市环境保护局设置在市内和郊区的10个环境空气质量监测国控点近5年（2013年1月—2017年12月）的O3逐小时浓度资料及气象、地理资料分析了贵阳市O3浓度的时空分布特征,并探讨典型气象因素对O3浓度变化的作用。本文主要针对贵阳市大气污染物O3相对于其他污染物偏高,以及郊区比市区夜间的O3浓度明显偏高现象,主要从盆地特殊地形及风的作用对O3时空变化进行分析。结果表明：（1）贵阳市年平均O3浓度变化为逐年增加趋势,与排放源增加有关。O3的季节变化主要受天气气候条件影响,O3日变化与太阳辐射、气温等气象因子显著相关。（2）郊区O3浓度明显高于城区,且出现的时段多在夜间。这一现象与城区与郊区的排放源差异、下垫面性质和地形小气候特征有关。（3）在排放源一定的条件下,影响贵阳市城区和郊区O3浓度变化的主要因素是特殊的盆地地形构造和风速风向。冬半年和夏半年城区的O3小时浓度变化与风速显著正相关。冬半年郊区O3小时浓度变化与风速也呈正相关,但是在夏半年,郊区的O3小时浓度与风速呈显著性正相关,这是由郊区的谷地地形构造和风向造成。     

Education and Household Location in Chicago

This paper examines the choice of residential location in the city of Chicago versus its suburban areas. Data from the 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample from the 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing are used. Particular attention is given to the effects of educational attainment. Place of work continues to dominate the residential location decision. However, conditioning on place of work, demographics, and income, educational attainment is found to be statistically significant in residential choice of the city versus the suburbs in 2000 for non‐Hispanic whites, especially those with graduate degrees. In contrast, more educated African‐Americans and Hispanics tend to locate in suburban areas.     

近郊与远郊农户耕地投入偏好差异研究——基于云南省512户农户调查

农户对耕地投入的偏好,关系到耕地可持续利用与粮食安全。采用参与式农村评估方法,对云南省5对典型的近、远郊村512农户进行随机问卷调查,定量对比分析近、远郊村农户对耕地投入的偏好差异。结果表明：无论是劳动、机械、资金还是总投入,近郊村户均投入明显低于远郊村而地均投入则高于远郊村,近郊村耕地利用集约度比远郊村高;在耕地投入结构中,近、远郊村劳动投入均占绝大部分,但近郊村农户对劳动投入偏好强于远郊村而对资金投入偏好则弱于远郊村;对于耕地进一步投入意愿,大部分农户基本保持不变,但农户总体倾向于减少劳动力投入而增加资金投入,且远郊村比近郊村更为突出;农户总体趋向增加“好”质量耕地投入而减少“差”质量耕地投入,且远郊村比近郊村更为突出。应尽快采取措施促使农村特别是远郊村耕地顺利流转而扩大耕地流转规模,尽早实现耕地的规模经营与可持续性投入。     

水产养殖业正规贷款差异性研究——以鲆鲽类养殖业中小型养殖生产者为例

以鲆鲽类养殖企业随机抽样数据为样本,采用方差分析研究了我国水产养殖生产者的贷款途径、难以获得贷款的原因和贷款的来源机构的差异性。研究发现：养殖生产者是否通过个人或企业信用向金融机构获得贷款在地区间存在显著差异;不同文化程度的养殖生产者是否了解相关金融政策存在明显差异;而贷款是否来自于中国邮政储蓄银行所存在的显著差异是养殖规模的不同引起的。研究结果同时表明,金融产品单一、担保缺乏与抵押品价值不足、金融机构放贷手续繁琐、利率过高、养殖生产者文化程度偏低、部分金融机构对该产业存在规模歧视是制约水产养殖生产者获得正规贷款的重要因素。最后提出改善水产养殖企业正规贷款困难的政策建议。     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Land Values Based on Kriging and GIS Method

In order to know how and why the land values changed inside the city,the land-value patterns of Beijing during the period from 1998 to 2005 were studied based on Kriging and GIS Method.The land-value data of Beijing had a second order trend,so the Ordinary Kriging(OK) method was used after removing the trend surface.The results showed that there was a positive relationship between land-value and ring roads.The patterns of land values were clearly affected by the eradiating function of the city centre,and there was no independent sub-centre formed.In addition to the impact of city center,the main reasons for the land value increase were the influence of city planning,the expected appreciation,and improvement of infrastructure and transportation.In the process of suburbanization of Beijing,the land values showed a significant growth pattern from the near suburban to the city centre,which caused by the restraint of land resources.     

Inequity on suburban campuses: University students disadvantaged in self-improvement travel

Many new university campuses have been built in suburban areas where transit and service facilities are negligible. However, few studies explore the educational and transportation equity issues related to campus location. Based on a 2017 survey comprising 1673 students on 37 campuses in Shanghai, this study applied multilevel models to examine the association between the built environment around campuses and university students' travel behaviors. In particular, we focused on the travel that students undertake for self-improvement activities (e.g., internships and education-related activities) because this type of travel plays an important role in improving students' abilities and promoting their career development. We found that students on suburban campuses, which are characterized by being farther away from the city center, being single land use, and having fewer transit services, engage in fewer and longer trips to self-improvement destinations. However, students studying on urban campuses, which are characterized by mixed land use and greater accessibility to the city center and subway service, engage in more frequent and shorter trips to self-improvement destinations. Therefore, students on suburban campuses are at a disadvantage regarding educational opportunities and access to transportation to engage in self-improvement activities off campus.     

Fragmentation and Sprawl: Evidence from Interregional Analysis

Recent years have witnessed widespread expansion of state and regional planning programs in the United States. A major purpose of these efforts is to reduce urban sprawl—low density, discontinuous, suburban–style development, often characterized as the result of rapid, unplanned, and/or uncoordinated growth— by promoting jurisdictional cooperation and regulatory consistency across metropolitan areas. This paper evaluates the efficacy of this approach by examining the relationship between governmental fragmentation and several measurable outcomes of urban development: density, urbanized land area, property value, and public expenditures on infrastructure. The four dimensions are modeled in a simultaneous equations framework, providing substantive evidence on how fragmentation and other exogenous factors affect metropolitan growth patterns. Fragmentation is associated with lower densities and higher property values, but has no direct effect on public service expenditures; less fragmented metropolitan areas occupy greater amounts of land due to the extensive annexation needed to bring new development under the control of a central municipality. The findings of the analysis lend support to state and regional planning efforts aimed at increasing cooperation among local governments, but also suggest that further research is needed in order to evaluate whether or not they produce their intended effects.     

The Interaction of Economic Reforms,Socio‐economic Structure and Agriculture in Mexico

National policydecisions in developing countries contribute to the increasing integration of agriculture into national and world economies. The spatial consequences of national policies, however, vary across regions and agricultural systems. Employing and adapting a methodology first proposed by King (1970), this study explores the relationship between national policy, agriculture, and population characteristics at the regional level in Mexico during the presidency of Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988–94). Statistical analyses corroborate the hypothesis that the impact of policy reforms on the agricultural sector in Mexico is mediated by the characteristics of the population. Results suggest that government credit for agriculture and federal funding of rural development during the Salinas de Gortari administration were mediated by factors associatedwith the level of urbanization. The provision of commercial credit at the regional level, however, does not appear to depend on population characteristics. Disparities in the impact of national policies are attributed to a historical urban bias, the differential ability of more highly urbanized states to attract government funding, manage and implement programs, and the existence of highly profitable, commercial agriculture in more developed states.     

Programs for Suburban Leisure Tourism Development in Line with Conditions of Linpan in Western Sichuan: A Case Study of Huayuan Town in Xinjin County

At present, suburban leisure tourism in China is in full swing, but the phenomenon of homogenization is widespread. This paper took suburban leisure tourism of Huayuan Town in Xinjin County, Chengdu, Sichuan for example and summarized the characteristics of Linpan in western Sichuan and market conditions to explore programs for suburban leisure tourism development in line with conditions of Linpan in western Sichuan, with a view to providing a reference for suburban leisure tourism development of Linpan in western Sichuan and suburban leisure tourism development in China.     

Innovation in suburban development zones: Evidence from Nanjing,China

While suburban areas have been typically related with urban sprawl, low density, cheap land price and low‐end manufacturing industries, relatively little attention has been paid to the spatial organization of innovation in suburban areas. In some Chinese cities, development zones (kai fa qu) in their suburban areas which are generally regarded as major spaces for traditional manufacturing industries have been transforming into spaces for innovation. This paper provides a case study of Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu province in Eastern China by investigating and explaining the learning and innovation processes in suburban development zones. Drawing upon a unique database on 733 state‐certified high‐tech firms in Nanjing from 2008 to 2012 which contains detailed information on their addresses and number of patents, we observe strong spatial disparity in the distribution of innovation. Suburban districts of Nanjing where its three national‐level development zones and many provincial‐level development zones are located have become major spaces for innovation of the city. The planning of industrial clusters in development zones, the place‐based investment in the suburbs, and the suburbanization of universities are three major mechanisms behind the learning and innovation processes in Nanjing’s suburban development zones.     

Classifying genotype by environment interactions for targeted germplasm deployment with a focus on Eucalyptus

A novel methodology for describing genotype by environment interactions estimated from multi-environment field trials is described and an empirical example using an extensive trial network of eucalypts is presented. The network of experiments containing 65 eucalypts was established in 38 replicated field trials across the tropics and subtropics of eastern Australia, with a selection of well-tested species used to provide a more detailed examination of productivity differentials across environmental gradients. By focusing on changes in species’ productivity across environmental gradients, the results are applicable for all species established across the range of environments evaluated in the trial network and simultaneously classify species and environments so that results may be applied across the landscape. The methodology developed was able to explain most (93 %) of the variation in the selected species relative changes in productivity across the various environmental variables examined. Responses were primarily regulated by changes in variables related to water availability and secondarily by temperature related variables. Clustering and ordination can identify groups of species with similar physiological responses to environment and may also guide the parameterisation and calibration of process based models of plant growth. Ordination was particularly useful in the identification of species with distinct environmental response patterns that would be useful as probes for extracting more information from future trials.     

北京郊区自然资源与社会经济信息管理平台研发与建设

为提升北京郊区农村信息化和都市型现代农业水平,依据郊区农村和农业现状,利用Oracle数据库、ArcSDE和3S等相关技术手段构建了北京郊区自然资源与社会经济信息管理平台。从前期准备、系统平台开发、平台测试、平台培训、平台运行与维护和数据更新等角度讨论了该系统平台的研发与建设工作,同时指出了系统平台建设的主要特点及需要注意的几个方面。实践证明,该系统平台可以实现北京郊区自然资源与社会经济信息的空间一体化管理,为各级政府农村和农业管理部门决策提供数据依据和分析工具,对首都社会主义新农村建设具有重要的意义,有一定的推广价值。     

Re‐examining the Neighborhood Distribution of Higher Priced Mortgage Lending: Global versus Local Methods

This paper demonstrates the application of the local geographically weighted regression (GWR) method to mortgage studies, using the Philadelphia metropolitan statistical area (MSA) as a case study. Previous related studies widely employed the global, ordinary least square (OLS) method to examine the spatial distribution of subprime/higher priced mortgages. The OLS method, however, masks the spatial variations in mortgage distributions. The innovative GWR method not only provides a significant improvement in model fitness but also reveals that the statistical relationships between neighborhood characteristics and the prevalence of higher priced mortgage shares are spatially varied. In addition, the GWR method can bring forward potential implications for place‐based policy making. Improving upon previous methodologies in mortgage studies, this paper shows that the GWR method can advance our understanding of how neighborhood environments are associated with mortgage lending patterns.     

The Appreciative System of Urban ICT Policies: An Analysis of Perceptions of Urban Policy Makers

ABSTRACT Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become an important tool to promote a variety of public goals and policies. In the past years much attention has been given to the expected social benefits from deploying ICTs in different urban fields (transportation, education, public participation in planning, etc.) and to its potential to mitigate various current or emerging urban problems. The growing importance of ICTs in daily life, business activities, and governance prompts the need to consider ICTs more explicitly in urban policies. Alongside the expectation that the private sector will play a major role in the ICT field, the expected benefits from ICTs also encourage urban authorities to formulate proper public ICT policies. Against this background, various intriguing research questions arise. What are the urban policy‐makers’ expectations about ICTs? And how do they assess the future implications of ICTs for their city? A thorough analysis of these questions will provide a better understanding of the extent to which urban authorities are willing to invest in and to adopt a dedicated ICT policy. This study is focusing on the way urban decision‐makers perceive the opportunities of ICT policy. After a sketch of recent development and policy issues, a conceptual model is developed to map out the driving forces of urban ICT policies in cities in Europe. Next, by highlighting the importance of understanding the decision‐maker's “black box,” three crucial variables are identified within this box. In the remaining part of the paper these three variables will be operationalized by using a large survey comprising more than 200 European cities. By means of statistical multivariate methods (i.e., factor and cluster analysis), the decision‐makers were able to be characterized according to the way they perceive their city (the concept of “imaginable city”), their opinion about ICT, and the way they assess the relevance of ICT policies to their city. Next, a solid explanatory framework will be offered by using a log‐linear logit analysis to test the relationships between these three aspects.