Analysis of Demand and Its Elasticity and Forecasting About Chinese Automobile Market

By the monthly economic date about Chinese automobile and other relevant date,an analysis is first conducted that whether the automobile stock of China can significantly adjust the demand of automobile market or not.Second,a regression model and a time-series model which are used to forecast the demand of automobile of China are founded.Third,the income elasticity and price elasticity about the monthly demand of automobile of China are also analyzed.Conclusions are that automobile stock of China can't significantly adjust the automobile demand,that lag-two income of consumer and automobile price significantly affect the monthly demand of automobile,and that the price elasticity of automobile demand is big than lag-two income elasticity.At last,some proposal is put forward.     

Influence of Population Size on Characteristicof Water Demand in Small Towns

Different population size is differentin consumption of water resources,different town scale have effect on water demand to a great extent.So studying on influence of population size on characteristic of water using is important to reveal characteristic of water consumption.This paper makes small town into three grades as large,medium,small-sized,according to township population of small town,chooses typical town to investigate,and receives water demand level of typical town through statisticcalculation.Also,to study the relationship between population size and the change of water consumption by analogism,and suggestthat coefficient of daily variation is from 1.75 to 1.95,while hourly variation is from 2.0 to 2.4,and higher as population size is smaller.     

Estimation of Output Elasticity of Labor of Production Function

For the desire of Chinese computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the output elasticity of labor by using the econometric method and the method that the output elasticity of labor equal to the share of labor income in value added by the sector, and compare our results with the output elasticity of labor of other developing countries. The conclusion is that the output elasticity of labor is between the upper limit and the lower limit of the output elasticity of labor of other developing countries. So ,our results have higher reliability.     

Urban Water Demand Forecasting by Combining Improved BP Neural Network and Grey Model with Optimum Weight

Prediction of water demand is a complex system affected by a mass of data and influencing factors together. Nowadays, most of the forecasting methods are single model ones. They reflect only part of the system. In view of this situation, a combined model     

Analysis of Game on Layoff Mechanism for Human Resource in Enterprise

Under the conditions of shortage of demand on goods, the prices of goods and the economic benefit of enterprise will fall. The enterprise should adjust management and decision-making and some employees whose output values are lower than their wages from the enterprise will be fired. The layoff mechanism from the enterprise can provide an efficient way for these employees to leave voluntarily. As long as the total value of reword outward of the enterprise can exceed their total output values, the layoff mechanism can be put in practice. There is the economic game on the final price for the layoff during the process. In the cases of reaching consistent agreement on it or not between the employees and the enterprise, the results of game such as Nash equilibrium and stratagem are respectively discussed. The degree of uncertainty of the faith on the price from the arbitrator will affect largely the equilibrium when the arbitrator is involved.     

A calculation method for the optimal water flow of closed-loop water source heat pump systems (WSHP）at Yangtze River

The water flow of closed-loop heat exchanger coil influences the overall performance of water source heat pump systems(WSHP). Energy consumption model of water source heat pump systems and calculation method of optimal water flow are both established. Through the theoretical calculations of water source heat pump systems performance, the theoretical relationship between overall coefficient of performance(COP）and percentage of cooling water flow and temperature of the water source heat pump systems is gotten. In the given temperature conditions, the value of the system COP is optimal under a percentage of cooling water flow. A closed-loop water source heat pump test bench is established in Yangtze River. Then, the variable flow conditions experiments are both done in summer and winter, experimental results and theoretical results are consistent. The calculation method can provide a reference for further research of the performance of closed-loop water source heat pump systems.     

An Aggregate Demand Forecasting Model on the Residence of Chongqing Main City Zone

Developing of real estate industry is one of the important ways to optimize Chongqing's industry structure and develop Chongqing's economy based on the relative theory. This paper brings forward an aggregate demand forecasting model on the residence of Chongqing main city zone according as data of the level of residence and relative factors in a certain period of Chongqing main city zone,by the way of gradually regressing and compounding forecasting. The model indicates that, according with the characteristic of residence,the aggregate demand of the residence is positive correlation to the polulation of Chongqing main city zone.     

On the Extension of the Stock Model

Stock model of economical order batch is established under the objective of maximum total profit according to the hypotheses of constant demand rate.Based on these facts,the author suggests that the stock model of economical order batch is established under the objective of maximum total profit in system according to the hypotheses of demand rate's relying on selling price.From which one extended a model can be deduced.By using extreme-value theory,the model is proven mathematically and the method of solution is deduced for optimal order batch,optimal selling price and how to define optimal order cycle,and the sensitivity analysis has been made.One applied example is also given.     

A Study on Artificial Neural Networks-based Medical Equipment Demand Forecast

In order to uncover the complex relation in the inventory data and lower the inventory level, based on the idea of black box method, all factors that influence demand are identified firstly. Then an initial forecast model of BP neural networks that adopt LM algorithm is established, and is trained using hospital inventory's history data. The interrelation's information of each factor that influences demand is stored in the link weights matrix W dispersedly. The final forecast model is obtained. We use the model to forecast the demand of medical equipment in Daping hospital. Based on it, the inventory cost is reduced enormously. The theory for the inventory system can be used to make management decision.     

Experimental research on dynamical characterristics of rock in fei xianguan northeast in sichuan

Rock(sandstone, ash stone) in fei xian guan northeast Sichuan was used as rock sample,Experimental research on elasticity wave in room was done by testing technology of sound wave. The speed of elasticity wave and the dynamical elasticity parameter is calculated by the experiment. After the experiment, the physics mechanic character of rock is analyzed by experiment data.     

Preliminary Study on Eco-environmental Water Demand in Taohuajiang Valley, Guilin

Eco-environmental water demand in Taohuajiang Valley of Guilin is defined as the minimum water volume required by the valley to maintain the eco-environmental quality not to be degraded over time.By using the site survey data,the eco-environmental water demand in Taohuajiang valley is studied preliminarily.The results calculated indicate that: the out-stream eco-environmental water demand is about 14.9 million m3 per year,about 4 percent of annual runoff of the valley;and the in-stream eco-environmental water requirement is about 109.8 million m3 per year,about 30 percent of annual runoff.This study provides scientific basis for local sustainable water resources use and management as well as for eco-environmental water requirement study in similar regions in terms of Karst geological condition and climate.     

Comparison between Calibration Procedure and Econometric Estimation

The two methods of estimating parameter in computable general equilibrium(CGE) model are introduced and compared:the calibration procedure and econometric estimation. The conclusions are:the estimation of parameter in CGE model must use the calibration procedure coupled with the econometric estimation method;the elasticity of output with respect to labor input,the marginal expenditure share for households and price elasticity of export demand are estimated by econometric estimation method;and other parameters of the CGE model can be get by calibration procedure.     

Recovery of Waste Glass by a Method of Water Flushing Selection

In this paper,a new method of water flushing recovery of waste glsss is presented. The equipment of separation of glass from waste materials and it' s mechanisms are described.The relationship between the efficiency of separation of glass from waste materials and the physical and mechanical properties of these waste materials is analyzed. The experimental results of recovery of waste glass are given. It is found that the efficiency of recovery of glass is more than 90%.     

An Application of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation in Optimal Investment

The simple portfolio investment model is given, with the HJB equation. The optimal portfolio investment problem is discussed under some given supposition, the quantitative relations are gotten between the investment strategies and riskless investment income rate and risk investment income rate are gotten. And with the quantitative relations, we study the qualitative relations between the investment strategies and riskless investment income rate and risk investment income rate. This also accounts for the effect of the falling interest rate of RMB on the national economy.     

Empirical Analysis of the Demand of Rail Freight Transport in China on Basis of VAR Model

With the rapid development of road and other transport modes in China, the railway freight transport is confronted with great challenge. So, the relations of rail freight transport, development of national economy and extension of railway become focuses. This paper makes a cointegreting VAR model according to the data from Chinese Statistical Year Book. On the basis of the model of the long-run and short-run equilibrium of rail freight demand are analyzed, The result shows that the rail freight transport in China has a stable and low elastic coefficient of income and a high but unstable elastic coefficient of supply in long-run. In short dynamics, the national economy is the first factor affecting rail freight demand and in the second term the innovation reaches a top point. Extension of railway has little effect on rail freight transport. The innovations from rail freight transport and railway extension has little impulse on national economy. Rail freight is the important factor affecting extension of rail-way with a third-term top, but GDP has a little impulse on it. Further analysis on the result and suggestion on policy are made.     

Experimental Analysis on Power Consumption of Chilled Water Pump by Constant Pressure Difference Method with Bypass Valve

The power consumption of frequency conversion chilled water pump of an office building regulated by constant pressure difference method with bypass valve is studied experimentally. A model of power consumption of chilled water pump is proposed. The effects of pressure difference set point of bypass valve on instantaneous and annual power consumption of chilled water pump are analyzed. The simulation results are validated experimentally, which shows that there is a maximum water flow rate which increases with the increase of the pressure difference set point of bypass valve at equilibrium state. There are three pressure operation regions of the bypass valve: under pressure region, constant pressure region and over pressure region. The power consumption of frequency conversion chilled water pump is affected by the pressure difference set point of bypass valve significantly, and it would be minimized as the pressure difference set point of bypass valve is equal to the pressure difference between supply water and return water of the farthest user.     

Analysis of the Type of Contract Price in Construction Projects

In the construction projects, the contract, which is the most important behavior norm, determines the rights and responsibilities of client and contractor. All engineering activities aim at implementing and carrying out the articles of the contract. However, as the key component of the contract, the type of contract price determines the distribution mode of most of the engineering risk between client and contractor. In this paper, the most popular types of contract price used in the international construction projects are introduced. The advantages and disadvantages of each type and the distribution mode of the engineering risk between client and contractor are analyzed. At the end, some advice are given to the clients that they should choose the proper type of contract price and have innovation according to the characteristics of certain project and the situation of themselves.     

Energy Efficiency of Water Transportation System for Surface Water Source Heat Pump

The forms of water transportation, arrangement and operation of pumps contribute to the water transportation energy consumption, which influences the energy-saving effect of surface water source heat pump. The relation between the pumping height and energy consumption of pumps is found by analyzing the model of pump energy consumption. The concept and calculation of critical pumping height is presented considering the limited rate of system energy efficiency. Based on the principle that the pump power changes with water flow rate, the determination of pumps arrangement of one or two stage pumps is described with a concrete example. The influence of water flow rate on heat pumps and water pumps is analyzed, and the energy efficiency of constant and variable water volume are compared. The operation way of this example is concluded for the optimal system energy efficiency. It is found that there is a critical pumping height for the energy-saving effect of surface water source heat pump compared with the traditional system. Moreover, the operation strategies should be determined by the system optimal model since the energy consumptions proportions of heat pumps and water pumps are variable.     

Design of Information Terminal in the Water Supply Industry

A information terminal is designed , which is applied to administration and service management in the water supply industry of city. The situation of administration, service management and demand of reform about tradition technology are researched. Combining the advantages of information-processing and movable operation of the pocket PC, a communication model of terminal which can collect data in the field and a processing software are developed . It has the characteristics such as acquisitioning data , service , management, movable operation to traditional water meters, smart card water meters and remote water meters. It has been applied to housing estate and water supply industry at present ,with the widely used ,it improves the situation of management in the water supply .     

Game Analysis of Vertical Cooperative Advertising with Price Discount

This paper studies the problem of cooperative advertising of two-echelon supply chain when the manufacturer offers a price deduction to consumers. And the equilibrium outcomes in a two-stage game and a coordinated co-op game are discussed and compared respectively. The results demonstrate that, under a certain condition, the retailer will increase local advertising effort if the manufacturer offers more price discount to customers directly. For any given price discount, the total profit for the supply chain with cooperative scheme is always higher than that with the non-cooperative scheme, and we find that the price discount will only be suitable for the merchandise with price sensitive demand. Then the Nash bargaining model is utilized to determine the allocation of the entire system profit gain. Finally, a numerical example is given to confirm the above conclusion.