稻麦“双套”轻型简化栽培技术的研究及应用(Ⅰ) ——淮北地区稻棵套播麦的生育特点及栽培对策

系统论述了淮北地区稻棵套播麦播期提前，利于早发壮苗；群体大，高峰苗提前，利于足穗形成；幼苗发育进程提前，利于大穗形成的生育特点，及限制穗、粒、重三因素协调发展相关影响机理，提出了选用抗病品种、适期适量播种、“少食多餐”的平衡施肥方式、冬前保持地表土壤良好环境等配套轻型简化栽培技术，在生产实践中应用，取得了较好的经济效益和社会效益。     

基于随机前沿分析的不同粮食生产规模农户生产技术效率差异及影响因素分析

本文以陕西省关中地区高陵县、泾阳县、岐山县三个地区不同经营规模农户为研究对象,运用超越对数生产函数对农户粮食生产的生产效率进行测度,并对影响农户生产技术效率的外生变量进行Tobit回归分析。结果表明:中等经营规模农户生产效率高于小规模农户和较大规模的农户;在影响因素中,劳动力年龄、农户家庭非农收入、农业与非农收入比例、农户播种面积、粮地租出比例、规模这些因素均对粮食生产技术效率有显著影响,而劳动力受教育年限和土地租出率均对生产技术效率无显著影响。     

基于随机前沿分析的不同粮食生产规模农户生产技术效率差异及影响因素分析--以陕西关中农户为例

为研究陕西关中地区粮食种植农户的粮食生产技术效率和种植规模之间的关系,以陕西省关中地区高陵县、泾阳县、岐山县3个地区农户为研究对象,运用随机前沿分析方法测算生产技术效率,并对外生影响因素变量进行Tobit回归分析。结果表明：中等经营规模农户生产效率高于小规模农户和较大规模的农户;在影响因素中,劳动力年龄、农户家庭非农收入、农业与非农收入比例、农户播种面积、粮地租出比例、规模这些因素均对粮食生产技术效率有显著影响,而劳动力受教育年限和土地租出率均对生产技术效率无显著影响。因此,从生产技术效率较高的角度来看,陕西关中地区粮食种植应该以中规模为主,通过对不同影响因素的调节,可以提高农户的生产技术效率,进而有效率的提高粮食产量。     

影响农户借贷需求的因素分析——基于江苏农户调查的经验数据

农户是中国农业经营的主体,也是农村金融市场的需求主体。随着农村经济的市场化和农户经营的多元化,借贷资本对农业及农户经济发展的作用日益重要。农户的借贷需求将影响农村金融市场的规模和结构,也将影响农户的生产、生活现金支出,进而影响农户生产投资的规模和农户商品需求的规模。因此,分析影响农户借贷需求的因素,研究农业信贷需求的决定规律具有实际意义。本文将首先描述影响农户借贷的因素,构建理论假说;然后运用农户数据和计量分析方法（Tobit模型）,对影响农户借贷需求的因素进行研究;最后得出农户收入水平、自有资金,生产经营规模以及自身特征对农户借贷需求都有着显著影响。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区农户土地流转行为的实证研究——基于273户农户的调研

为了探讨鄱阳湖生态经济区农地流转的影响因素及其影响机理,笔者以该区273户农户调查数据为基础,利用Logistic模型对农户土地流入和流出的影响因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）户主年龄、户主文化、非农收入比重、农田面积、水利设施年代、有合作组织、是否雇工和补贴政策认知与农户土地流入呈显著的正相关,家庭劳动力、规模认知和借贷难易度与农户土地流入呈显著的负相关,而土地平整状况、水利设施年代、补贴政策认知和销售方式与农户土地流入无关;（2）与农户土地流出呈显著正相关的因素有户主年龄、户主文化、家庭劳动力、非农收入比重、有合作组织和规模认知,水利设施年代、补贴政策认知和销售方式与农户土地流出呈显著的负相关,而农田面积、土地平整状况和是否雇工与农户土地流出无关。农户户主特征及家庭特征对土地流入或流出的决策均有重要的影响,需要引起特别关注。     

浙江省现代农业园区农户特征和生产经营状况分析——基于对安吉、遂昌、庆元3县毛竹现代园区的调查

为了推动浙江省省级现代农业园区又好又快发展,为浙江省毛竹现代林业园区的健康发展提供依据,笔者采用参与式乡村快速评估（PRRA）法对浙江省安吉、遂昌、庆元3县17个毛竹现代林业园区进行调查,对园区农户特征和生产经营状况进行分析。结果表明：（1）农户收入方式正发生结构性变迁,从传统以竹林经营为主要收入来源逐渐向工资性收入为主的生产方式转变。（2）农户兼业特征明显,大量农村劳动力从林地经营转移为产业工人（占90%以上）或从事农家乐等服务业,林地流转成为现代林业发展的一个新趋势。（3）现有的林业科技推广主要是政府主导、技术为主体,并从上而下的主要依靠行政推进;农户对实用新技术的需求大,但很大程度上缺少对技术选择的自主权,技术断层现象明显。（4）农民专业合作社建设处于初级阶段,但已成为提高林农组织化程度,推动小农生产与大市场的有效对接的重要手段。     

河南省2011年农户存粮售粮情况调查分析

通过对2010年4月1日～2011年3月31日河南省农户存粮售粮情况的调查,结果表明：调查期内农户存粮数量略有上升,农户售粮数量增加,收入增长明显。     

兼业农户、现代农户与国家食物安全

摘要：我国目前的食物安全研究多是从政策、市场、技术和资源等“大而单”宏观视角来研究食物安全,忽视了农业生产的微观主体--农户的重要地位和作用。本文从农户“小而全”微观视角研究食物安全,比较分析兼业农户和现代农户对食物安全的不同影响,认为兼业农户过多会导致劳动力流失、耕地抛荒、食物播种结构单一、农业物质投入少以及加剧小生产和大市场之间的矛盾,并以中国改革开放以来农户兼业程度变化和粮食产量变化的数据为例进行了实证分析,从而得出结论：兼业农户的摇摆心态不利于国家的食物安全,而具有适度规模经营,规范化生产,吸纳现代要素能力强,资本技术集约度和组织化程度高的现代农户从源头保证了食物的数量和质量安全。所以,在当前的农业生产条件下、农业比较效益差的情况下,要保证国家食物安全,必须对我国目前的兼业农户进行合理引导,打破制约现代农户发展的资源和制度瓶颈。     

农户家庭特征与农村主要闲置地相关性研究

以问卷的形式调查走访了湖南省长沙市、株洲市、岳阳市及湘西地区的八个村,在调查数据的基础上,以农户家庭特征为主要对象,通过建立Logistic模型,探讨了造成农村闲置耕地、宅基地的可能因素,分析了农户家庭特征与农村闲置耕地、宅基地的相关性。结果表明:农户经济收入及农用地类型对耕地闲置有显著影响(Sig.分别为0.034和0.041,P0.05),农户经济收入越高,耕地闲置的可能性越大,农户家中有养殖,果、林、渔等其他用地时,面积越大,耕地闲置的可能性越大;农户年收入、家庭成员文化程度高低及务农人数占家庭成员比例对宅基地闲置有显著影响(Sig.分别为0.015、0.036和0.026,P0.05),文化程度越高,宅基地闲置可能性越小,农户家庭务农成员越多,宅基地闲置的可能性越大。研究结论可为在新型城镇化过程中解决农村土地闲置问题提供参考。     

农户种植张杂谷影响因素实证分析

依据对张杂谷种植农户的调查资料,运用两项logistic模型,对采用张杂谷技术意愿影响因素作了实证研究。结果表明：文化程度、张杂谷增长效果、产量、劳动力占家庭人口数、用工数对农户是否继续采用张杂谷有显著性正向影响,年龄和家庭主要收入来源对农户是否继续采用张杂谷有显著性负向影响。张杂谷应该重点向文化程度水平高,以种植业为主要收入,劳动力比较多的家庭倾斜。提出对种植张杂谷进行补贴,加大张杂谷科研力度,对农民进行种植张杂谷培训等建议。     

江西双季稻机插的典型模式及其效果研究

基于江西省双季稻区10个县30个乡镇农户、合作社以及农机大市场的调查数据,通过对合作社的两种典型模式（合作模式和服务模式）的研究及合作社农户和散户的对比分析,探索合作社对江西双季稻机插推广的促进作用。研究结果表明:合作社农户的成本要低于散户,收益要高于散户,合作社的生产效果比散户的要好;合作社农户的年龄比散户的年龄要低,文化、土地规模、资金要高于散户;合作社农户的机插比例高于散户;目前江西合作社机插典型模式中比较受欢迎的模式是农机大户和种田大户合作模式及“订单式”服务模式;未来种田大户、农机大户和养殖大户是发展江西农民合作生产的主要对象,重点发展的模式是合作社提供水稻生产全程社会化服务模式。     

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.     

养殖场生物安全体系的构建

本文简要介绍了养殖场生物安全体系的内涵和作用,并叙述了构建养殖场良好的生物安全体系应注意的基本方面。     

An empirical analysis of risk in conventional and organic arable farming in The Netherlands

This paper assesses and compares risk in conventional and organic arable farming in The Netherlands with respect to family farm income and underlying price and production variables. To investigate the risk factors the farm accountancy data network was used containing unbalanced panel data from 196 conventional and 29 organic representative Dutch arable farms (for the period 2002 up to and including 2011). Variables with regard to price and production risk were identified using a family farm income analysis scheme. Price risk variables are input and output prices, while yield volatility of different crops is the main production risk variable. To assess risk, an error components implicit detrending method was applied and the resulting detrended standard deviations were compared between conventional and organic farms. Results indicate that the risk at the level of family farm income is higher in organic farming. The underlying variables show higher risk for organic farms in crop yields, crop prices and variable input costs per crop.     

Combining the simulation crop model AquaCrop with an economic model for the optimization of irrigation management at farm level

Water resources used in irrigated agriculture are increasingly scarce, particularly in many countries where irrigation has undergone recent expansion. To optimize the limited resources available, optimization models provide useful tools for technical and economic analyses. One of the key inputs of these models is the yield response to water which is often simulated with empirical water production functions. At present, dynamic crop simulation models, such as AquaCrop (Steduto et al., 2009) offer alternative predictions of crop responses to different irrigation strategies as inputs to economic optimization. A model at farm scale was developed and applied to an area in South-western Spain to assist farmers in pre-season decision making on cropping patterns and on irrigation strategies. Yield predictions were obtained from the AquaCrop model which was validated for four different crops. The model simulated the impact on farm income of: (a) irrigation water constraints; (b) variations in agricultural policies; (c) changes in product and water prices; and, (d) variations in the communication to farmers of the specific level of irrigation water allocation. The applications of the models to the study area showed that currently, the changes in cropping patterns induced by the agricultural policy will encourage water savings more than an increase in water prices. Under water restrictions, the best strategy combines planting of low water use crops in part of the area to release water to grow more profitable crops with greater water needs. The model predicted a strong negative impact on farm income of delaying a decision on the level of seasonal water allocation by the water authority, reaching up to 300 € ha⁻¹ in the case of the study area.     

“十一五”农产品加工发展展望

介绍了发达国家农产品加工业的发展历程及我国农产品加工业和农业的发展历史与现状,分析了农产品加工中存在的问题。指出坚持发挥区域比较优势、坚持适度规模和产业化经营,以安全和健康食品为主线,以市场为导向,以稳定农业和增加农民收入为目标,以畜牧、蔬菜、林果和杂粮四大主导产业发展为重点,对“十一五”期间农产品加工发展方向与发展对策进行了展望。     

河南黄泛区农场建设对产业集聚发展的影响度研究

通过利用区位熵指数、农业GDP份额和集中系数来描述河南省黄泛区农场产业集聚状况,以判断黄泛区是否存在产业集聚的现象;同时分析黄泛区农场产业集聚特征和并指出农场影响产业集聚发展所存在问题。     

长江农场水稻病虫害综合防治系统研究

摘 要：为提高上海长江农场水稻病虫害防治水平和管理人员工作效率,节省人力物力,构建了长江农场水稻病虫害综合防治系统。系统以.NET 2.0为开发平台,以SQL SERVER 2000为数据库管理系统,合理设计系统框架,实现了用户需要的各种功能。本研究结合上海市长江农场水稻病虫害防治实际需求,首先对水稻病虫害数据进行常规采集,在数据采集的基础上对病虫害的发生进行预测和预警,在发现病虫害症状时可以进行诊断,并根据诊断结果提供防治建议和方案,构建了一个采集—预测—诊断—防治一体化的水稻病虫害综合防治平台。系统基于B/S模式构建,较好的解决了长江农场水稻生产中的病虫害防治问题。     

Analysis of reasonable wind farm energy storage capacity range

The wind farm output power fluctuations caused by changing wind speed can be improved by configuring the appropriate storage energy capacity .For the problem that how to select the storage capacity more economical, two indicators for the judgment of the optimization wind power output are mentioned, which is based on a method calculating storage energy capacity. By detailed analysis of the all kinds of factors that can influence the reasonable value of storage capacity, and by using the cost of storage capacity and the smoothing effect of wind farm output as assistant criterion, a reasonable storage capacity range is discussed.