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1.
Climatic warming is affecting oceanic circulation patterns in coastal upwelling areas, but the impact of this climatic change on pelagic fish populations remains unclear. From juvenile landings collected over 38 years, the thresholds of environmental factors were determined that limited the optimal environmental window (OEW) for sardine (Sardina pilchardus recruitment success in the northwestern Iberian peninsula. The environmental factors considered were: water column stability in February, offshore water transport in March–April (QxMA), upwelling intensity in the preceding year from May to August (QxMJJA), and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. From 1875 to the mid‐1920s, the mean number of years within the OEW was relatively constant. However, since the mid‐1920s, there have been oscillations and alternating decades with high and low number of years within the OEW, which were related to oscillations in sardine landings. From 1906 to 2000, there were four record, low sardine catches in the 1920s, 1950s, 1970s and 1990s, related to a high number of successive years with prevailing conditions out of the OEW. From 1875 to the present, a high year‐to‐year variation of the NAO, QxMJJA and water stability in February was observed, although with mean values usually within the OEW. The collapse in the 1950s was related, partly, to successive years with low QxMJJA. Successive years with high NAO values may be related to the collapse of the sardine fishery in the 1990s. QxMA has been the most significant factor controlling SRS in this area, being the factor related to the low catches observed in the 1920s, 1950s and 1970s. Water stability was not responsible for any of the collapses observed, but since the 1920s, there has been a significant trend toward decreasing water column stability before the onset of the spring bloom. 相似文献
2.
Clia M. Teixeira Priscila M. Silva Rita Gamito Sandra Amoroso Nuno Lopes Catarina Freitas Henrique N. Cabral Jos L. Costa 《Fisheries Oceanography》2020,29(3):276-289
The beach‐seine fishery is a commercial fishing activity on the Portuguese coast, with reports dating as far back as the early 15th century. The main target species of this fishery are small pelagic fish such as Atlantic chub mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel and sardine. To identify the best conditions for fishing the target species, catches of beach seine (2007–2017) were used and generalized linear models were applied, using a binomial and gamma distributions. The logistic model explained between 36.3% and 45.7% of the catches variability; the gamma model explained 9.1% and 46.9% of the catches variability, being month and wind direction the best covariates for the occurrence and/or abundance of the three small pelagic fishes in analysis. If the effort is directed to the days that meet the conditions found for each species (sardine: between May and October, wind NW, daytime; Atlantic horse mackerel: May, NW/NE wind, 800 m from the coastline; Atlantic chub mackerel: from July to August, NW moderate wind), a reduction in bycatch and discards can be achieved. This approach can have a positive economic and social impact, since it provides information for turning fisheries more efficient. 相似文献
3.
A paradigm of fisheries science holds that spawning stock biomass (SSB) is directly proportional to total egg production (TEP) of fish stocks. This “SSB–TEP proportionality” paradigm has been a basic premise underlying the spawner–recruitment models for fisheries management and numerous studies on recruitment mechanisms of fish. Studies on maternal effects on reproductive potential of a stock have progressed during the last few decades, leading to doubt concerning the paradigm. Nonetheless, a direct test of the paradigm at multidecadal scales has been difficult because of data limitations in the stock assessment systems worldwide. Here, we tested the paradigm for marine fish based on a novel combination of two independent 38‐year time series: fishery‐dependent stock assessment data and fishery‐independent egg survey data. Through this approach, we show that the SSB–TEP proportionality is distorted by density dependence in total egg production per spawner individual (TEPPS) or spawner unit weight (TEPPSW) at a multidecadal scale. The TEPPS/TEPPSW exponentially declined with biomass and thus was density‐dependent for Japanese sardine, a small pelagic species exhibiting a high level of population fluctuation, in the western North Pacific. By contrast, the TEPPS/TEPPSW was sardine‐density‐dependent for Japanese anchovy, another small pelagic species exhibiting a moderate level of population fluctuation well‐known for being out of phase with sardine. Our analysis revealed intraspecific (sardine) and interspecific (anchovy) density dependence in TEPPS/TEPPSW, which was previously unaccounted for in spawner–recruitment relationships. Such density‐dependent effects at the time of spawning should be considered in fisheries management and studies on recruitment mechanisms. 相似文献
4.
In the Abrolhos Bank (Southwest Atlantic), multidimensional indicators were used in sustainability assessments of data‐poor reef fisheries. Potential impacts, risks and stocks vulnerabilities were evaluated based on biological, environmental, social and economic aspects by combining both adapted productivity and susceptibility analysis (PSA) and scale intensity consequence analysis (SICA). Data were obtained from local surveys with stakeholders and experts and from literature. A value chain map revealed final consumers at many locations and middleman presence. Vulnerability to overexploitation ranged from low (Cephalopholis fulva (L.), Lutjanus synagris (L.) and Ocyurus chrysurus (Bloch)) to moderate (Lutjanus jocu (Bloch & Schneider), Epinephelus morio (Val.) and Mycteroperca bonaci Poey). While moderate consequences of the catches were observed to C. fulva, major consequences were identified to the other five stocks. The main threat to coral reef habitats was found to be mining wastes. Poor governance may constrain fisheries sustainability in the region, while the empowerment of fishers in both governance and post‐harvest processes should enhance it. 相似文献
5.
Eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems are highly productive and sustain the world’s largest fisheries, usually dominated by sardine and anchovy species. Stock size is highly variable from year to year due to the impact of the unstable physical environment on fish early stages. Biophysical models of early life‐stage dispersal of marine organisms have been built by coupling (i) hydrodynamic models and (ii) life history models (i.e. egg and larva stages), and are therefore useful tools to investigate physical–biological interactions. Here, we review biophysical models of anchovy and sardine ichthyoplankton dispersals developed in the Benguela, Humboldt and Canary Current upwelling ecosystems. We also include a similar study conducted in the California Current upwelling on zooplankton. We then integrate this information into a comparative analysis of sardine and anchovy reproductive strategies in the different systems. We found that the main spawning periods match the season of (i) maximal simulated ichthyoplankton retention over the continental shelf in the northern Benguela, southern Humboldt and Canary (for sardine); (ii) maximal food concentration in the southern Benguela, California and Canary (for anchovy); and (iii) maximal shelf retention of ichthyoplankton and food concentration in the northern Humboldt (for both anchovy and sardine). This specificity of the northern Humboldt ecosystem could explain why it sustains the largest small pelagic fish stock. Finally, the possible effects of climate change on these patterns are discussed. 相似文献
6.
Shuyang Ma Caihong Fu Jianchao Li Peng Sun Yang Liu Zhenjiang Ye Yoshiro Watanabe Yongjun Tian 《Fish and Fisheries》2023,24(1):40-55
Non-stationary driver-response relationships are increasingly being recognized by scientists, underlining that a paradigm shift out of conventional stationary relationships is crucial. Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus, Clupeidae) is a typical small pelagic fish in the northwestern Pacific with considerable fluctuations in productivity, bringing about great economic and ecological concerns. Numerous studies suggest that the population dynamics of Japanese sardine is an integrated process affected by multiple density-dependent, fishing and climatic drivers. However, little has hitherto been done to incorporate the non-stationary effects of multiple drivers, impeding progresses in understanding the population dynamics and in developing management strategies. In this study, we adopted variable coefficients generalized additive models to reveal the non-stationary effects of density dependence, fishing pressure and climatic conditions on the population dynamics of Japanese sardine. Results suggest that the dynamics of Japanese sardine from 1976 to 2018 could be divided into four periods: the 1980s when suitable climatic conditions from strong Siberian High pressure system sustained high abundance; the 1990s when negative density-dependent effects and degrading climatic conditions due to temperature increase led to population collapse; the 2000s when negative triple effects, particularly high fishing pressure, restricted the population increase; and the 2010s when favourable climatic conditions with re-strengthening Siberian High pressure system accompanied by low fishing pressure contributed to the population recovery. The study highlights that precise identifications of population status and climatic conditions are helpful to achieve good trade-offs between resource exploitation and protection and to facilitate ecosystem-based management for Japanese sardine fisheries. 相似文献
7.
小型中上层鱼类是北太平洋海域重要的渔业资源,具有生命周期短、生长速度快、高集群性等特点,其资源年间波动显著,且受气候-海洋变化的影响。本文围绕秋刀鱼（Coloabis saira）、鲣（Katsuwonus pelamis）、鲐（Scomber japonicus）、鳀（Engraulis japonious）、竹䇲鱼（Trachurus japonicus）、沙丁鱼（Sardinops sagax）6种主要的小型中上层鱼类,回顾了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño/La Niña-southern oscillation,ENSO）、太平洋年代际振荡（the Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）、黑潮-亲潮（Kuroshio-Oyashio,KR-OY）等关键气候-海洋指数的特点及对鱼类栖息地环境和资源变动的影响。概括了气候-海洋变化对小型中上层鱼类的洄游分布和资源丰度的直接影响过程,以及对亲体繁殖产卵、仔稚体成活率和资源量波动间接的滞后影响过程。建议：（1）在多种气候-海洋指数基础上添加种群动态过程、捕捞方式系数、自然死亡率等参数构建生物量动态模型,揭示气候-海洋变化对渔业资源量的影响过程;（2）结合北太平洋涛动（North Pacific oscillation,NPO）、北极涛动（Arctic oscillation,AO）、北太平洋环流振荡（North Pacific gyre oscillation,NPGO）等其他北太平洋主要气候,基于物理海洋模型及空间耦合水动力学模型研究大尺度海流、中尺度涡旋对小型中上层鱼类影响。 相似文献
8.
Rod Fujita Daniel J Thornhill Kendra Karr Cara H Cooper Laura E Dee 《Fish and Fisheries》2014,15(4):661-675
Coral reefs support numerous ornamental fisheries, but there are concerns about stock sustainability due to the volume of animals caught. Such impacts are difficult to quantify and manage because fishery data are often lacking. Here, we suggest a framework that integrates several data‐poor assessment and management methods in order to provide management guidance for fisheries that differ widely in the kinds and amounts of data available. First, a resource manager could assess the status of the ecosystem (using quantitative metrics where data are available and semi‐quantitative risk assessment where they are not) and determine whether overall fishing mortality should be reduced. Next, productivity susceptibility analysis can be used to estimate vulnerability to fishing using basic information on life history and the nature of the fishery. Information on the relative degree of exploitation (e.g. export data or ratios of fish density inside and outside no‐take marine reserves) is then combined with the vulnerability ranks to prioritize species for precautionary management and further analysis. For example, species that are both highly exploited and vulnerable are good candidates for precautionary reductions in allowable capture. Species that appear to be less vulnerable could be managed on a stock‐specific basis to prevent over‐exploitation of some species resulting from the use of aggregate catch limits. The framework could be applied to coral reef ornamental fisheries which typically lack landings, catch‐per‐unit‐effort and age‐size data to generate management guidance to reduce overfishing risk. We illustrate the application of this framework to an ornamental fishery in Indonesia. 相似文献
9.
The western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) tuna fishery is one of the world's largest in terms of both catch volume and value, providing over half of global tuna catch with a landed value of US $5.84 billion in 2017. Fishing is conducted by both large‐ and small‐scale fleets, with fisheries subsidies disproportionately benefiting the former. The primary objective of this study was to determine the optimal distribution of effort between two large‐scale fisheries (LSF) and two small‐scale fisheries (SSF) in the WCPO under three scenarios: to maximize industry benefits, minimize subsidization or maximize food supply. The objective was approached using a bioeconomic game‐theoretic model. Results indicate opposite distributions of effort to maximize industry benefits (all fishing conducted by LSF) or to minimize subsidization (all fishing by SSF), with more balanced effort distributions to maximize food supply. Total value of capacity‐enhancing subsidies in optimal scenarios ranged from $1.4 billion when industry benefits were maximized to $0.2 billion when subsidization was minimized. Investigation of suboptimal scenarios reveals the flexibility of these results, with wide ranges in outputted state variables for a given goal. Difficulty was encountered in modelling the SSF sector due to data deficiencies, a well‐recognized issue in managing SSF. Investments towards “data equity” to help ensure that management decision‐making can properly account for the SSF sector would be useful. This study has implications for the objectives we set in fisheries management, and the potential trade‐offs, often value‐driven in nature, that we must make explicit in that management. 相似文献
10.
Understanding of density‐dependent effects is key to achieving sustainable management of self‐regulating biological resources such as fish stocks. Traditionally, density‐dependent effects on population abundance in fish have been considered to occur from hatching to recruitment, based on the paradigm of proportionality between spawning stock biomass and total egg production. Here, we demonstrate how the existence of intraspecific and interspecific density dependence in egg production changes the current understanding of density‐dependent processes in the life history of fish, by disentangling density‐dependent effects on egg production and survival from egg to recruitment, using sardine (Sardinops melanostictus, Clupeidae) and anchovy (Engraulis japonicus, Engraulidae) as model species. For sardine, strong intraspecific density‐dependent effects occurred in egg production, but no density‐dependent effects occurred or if any they were weak enough to be masked by environmental factors from hatching to recruitment. In contrast, for anchovy, interspecific density‐dependent effects occurred in egg production. In the survival after hatching, anchovy experienced stronger intraspecific density‐dependent effects than currently recognized. This analysis could overturn the current understanding of density‐dependent effects in the life history, highlighting contrasts between the effects on individual quality and population abundance and between the model species. We propose to reconsider the basis of fisheries management and recruitment studies based on the revised understanding of density‐dependent effects in the life history of the respective species. 相似文献
11.
D. Belhabib D. Hellebrandt Da Silva E. H. Allison D. Zeller D. Pauly 《Fisheries Management and Ecology》2016,23(2):119-132
Despite a scarcity of pertinent information, it has been possible to reconstruct time series of marine fisheries catches for Equatorial Guinea from 1950 to 2010 using per capita fish consumption and population numbers for small‐scale fisheries, catch rates and number of vessels for industrial fisheries and discard rates to estimate the discarded bycatch. Small‐scale fisheries, industrial large‐scale fisheries, domestic and legal and illegal foreign fisheries and their discards are all included. Total catches were estimated at 2.7 million tonnes over the time period considered, of which 653 000 t were caught domestically compared to 187 000 t reported by FAO. This shows that fisheries have more importance for Equatorial Guinea's food security than the official data suggest. In contrast to what is suggested by official figures, fisheries were shown to be strongly impacted by civil and political unrest; notably, they declined overall because of civil and political conflicts, socio‐demographic dynamics, and a growing role of the newly discovered oil resources, which directly and indirectly threaten the food security of the people of Equatorial Guinea. 相似文献
12.
Analyses of climate effects often ignore differences in life history for individual species. We analyzed a 34‐year time series of eastern Bering Sea fish surveys to evaluate changes in distribution by length and between cold and warm shelf‐wide average water temperatures for 20 species over inhabited depth, temperature, and location. All species showed evidence of ontogenetic migration. Differences in distribution between years with warm and years with cold shelf‐wide water temperatures varied among species and within species at different lengths. For species where shelf‐wide temperature effects were detected, the mid‐sized fish were most active in changing spatial distribution. For aquatic organisms ontogenetic migration occurs because life history stages have different environmental requirements. This study illustrates the need to consider species responses to climate change over different life history stages, and that studies on ecosystem responses should take ontogenetic differences into consideration when assessing impacts. 相似文献
13.
Michelle‐María Early‐Capistrán Andrea Sáenz‐Arroyo José‐Gilberto Cardoso‐Mohedano Gerardo Garibay‐Melo Volker Koch 《Fish and Fisheries》2018,19(1):57-77
Evaluating historical changes in the exploitation of marine organisms is a key challenge in fisheries ecology and marine conservation. In the Eastern Pacific, marine turtles were exploited for millennia before systematic monitoring began <50 years ago. Using ethnographic and historical data, we generated a detailed reconstruction of the East Pacific green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) fishery in Mexico's Baja California peninsula from 1700 to 1990. Sea turtles from the region's important feeding areas were a staple food source from the earliest phases of human occupation, dating back at least 12,000 years. In contrast with regions such as the Caribbean, small human populations and limited market access resulted in apparently sustainable turtle harvests until the second half of the 20th century. We found that the estimated annual catches between 1960 and 1980 exceeded the estimated annual catches of the previous 250 years by an order of magnitude, leading to the collapse of the fishery and the depletion of the green turtle population. A total ban on sea turtle captures in 1990, comprehensive nesting beach protection, and significant conservation efforts resulted in increases in breeding females on nesting beaches and catch rates in scientific monitoring on main feeding grounds since the early 2000s. This provides a positive outlook for this once‐depleted population segment. Although further research is needed to evaluate current conservation status, we have identified a date, between 1950 and 1960, which can serve as a reliable temporal reference for future evaluations of historical baseline abundance in this region. 相似文献
14.
Steven Canty Manuela Funes Stephen Box Kyrstn Zylich Brittany Derrick Esther Divovich Alasdair Lindop Daniel Pauly Dirk Zeller 《Fisheries Management and Ecology》2019,26(3):249-259
Declining fisheries catches are a global trend, with management failing to keep pace with growth in fishing effort and technological advances. The economic value of Honduras’ catches was estimated within the industrial and artisanal sectors. Catches were found to be 2.9 times greater than the official statistics between 1950 and 2015. The merging of industrial and artisanal catch data masked the decline in industrial catches and hid the strong growth of artisanal fisheries. In 1996, annual artisanal fisheries landed catches surpassed the industrial fishery sector, and in 2000, the annual net value of artisanal fisheries eclipsed the value of the industrial fisheries. These data highlight the importance of artisanal fisheries in Honduras and challenge the long‐held belief that the industrial sector contributes more to the national economy. The global paucity of fisheries data highlights the need for comprehensive strategies to collect more detailed and accurate fisheries data. 相似文献
15.
Yi‐Jay Chang Kuo‐Wei Lan William A. Walsh Jhen Hsu Chih‐hao Hsieh 《Fisheries Oceanography》2019,28(3):291-304
We developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for two size classes of Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Environmental data, including sea surface temperature, sea surface height, salinity, and net primary production, and catch and effort data from Taiwanese distant‐water stick‐held dip net fisheries during the main fishing season (August–October) during 2002–2015 were used. Habitat preferences and suitable habitat area differed between size classes. The suitable habitat was located between 40–47.5°N and 145–165°E for large‐sized Pacific saury but encompassed a greater area (35–47°N and 140–165°E) for medium‐sized Pacific saury. Both size classes were affected by substantial interannual variation in the environmental variables, which in turn can be important in determining the potential fishing grounds. We found a significant negative relationship between the suitable habitat area and the Niño3.4 indices with a time‐lag of 6 months for the large‐sized (r = ?0.68) and medium‐sized (r = ?0.42) Pacific saury, respectively, as well as the total landings of Pacific saury by all fishing fleets (r = ?0.46). As remotely‐sensed environmental data become increasingly available, HSI models may prove useful for evaluation of possible changes in habitat suitability resulting from climate change or other environmental phenomena and in formulating scientific advice for management. 相似文献
16.
Modou Thiaw Pierre‐Amaël Auger Fambaye Ngom Timothée Brochier Saliou Faye Ousmane Diankha Patrice Brehmer 《Fisheries Oceanography》2017,26(5):583-601
The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management. 相似文献
17.
Loren McClenachan Jonathan H. Grabowski Madison Marra C. Seabird McKeon Benjamin P. Neal Nicholas R. Record Steven B. Scyphers 《Fish and Fisheries》2019,20(6):1111-1123
Climate‐driven warming has both social and ecological effects on marine fisheries. While recent changes due to anthropogenic global warming have been documented, similar basin‐wide changes have occurred in the past due to natural temperature fluctuations. Here, we document the effects of rapidly changing water temperatures along the United States’ east coast using observations from fisheries newspapers during a warming phase (1945–1951) and subsequent cooling phase (1952–1960) of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which we compared to similar recent observations of warming waters (1998–2017). Historical warming and cooling events affected the abundance of species targeted by fishing, the prevalence of novel and invasive species, and physical access to targeted species. Fishing communities viewed historical cooling waters twice as negatively as they did warming waters (72% vs. 35% of observations). Colder waters were associated with a decrease in fishing opportunity due to storminess, while warming waters were associated with the potential for new fisheries. In contrast, recent warming waters were viewed as strongly negative by fishing communities (72% of observations), associated with disease, reductions in abundances of target species, and shifts in distributions across jurisdictional lines. This increasing perception that warming negatively affects local fisheries may be due to an overall reduction of opportunity in fisheries over the past half century, an awareness of the relative severity of warming today, larger changes in American culture, or a combination of these factors. Negative perceptions of recent warming waters’ effects on fisheries suggest that fishing communities are currently finding the prospect of climate adaptation difficult. 相似文献
18.
Fishers’ perceptions of changes in grouper size and abundance were compared with scientific data collected via underwater visual censuses (UVCs) before (1995) and after (2006 and 2011) the establishment of the Mafia Island Marine Park. Perceptions on changes in the size structure of groupers differed among communities due to differences in fishing capacities. Fishers in one village had mixed perceptions, while in another village the majority (66%) perceived a decline in size, with small groupers dominating the catch. Similarly, UVCs indicated that size structure was dominated by small groupers at all times surveyed. Consistent with fishers’ perceptions, UVC indicated that biomass and abundance of groupers declined in both no‐take zones (NTZs) and specified‐use zones (SUZs) between 1995 and 2006, with no substantial changes between 2006 and 2011. The NTZs had higher density and diversity of grouper species than SUZs, as would be expected from the differences in bottom topography in these two types of areas. The idea that NTZs could increase the biomass and abundance of groupers to benefit fished zones was not found, thus indicating that NTZs are not necessarily the best option for managing reef fisheries. 相似文献
19.
Ignacio A. Cataln Dominik Auch Pauline Kamermans Beatriz Morales‐Nin Natalie V. Angelopoulos Patricia Reglero Tina Sandersfeld Myron A. Peck 《Fish and Fisheries》2019,20(3):501-517
An amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish. 相似文献
20.
Ana M Queirós José Fernandes Lily Genevier Christopher P Lynam 《Fish and Fisheries》2018,19(4):613-621
Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO2 emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure. 相似文献