Dispersal dynamics of post-larval blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, within a wind-driven estuary

We examined how post‐larval blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) dispersal occurs within Pamlico Sound, NC, USA, a predominantly wind‐driven system. We sampled during multiple 24‐h periods over 2 years (2000–01) to relate the spatial distribution of post‐larvae in the water column with circulation patterns. A hydrodynamic model of the region was used to recreate dispersal trajectories and to assess potential transport mechanisms and pathways that link near‐inlet and across‐Sound nursery habitats. Most post‐larval blue crabs were collected in surface waters at night, and were consistently distributed within the north‐western region of Pamlico Sound. Particle‐tracking simulations suggested that dispersal from the inlets to across‐Sound nursery habitats only resulted from the combination of tidal and wind‐driven currents. Our simulation results further indicated that the northernmost inlet (Oregon Inlet) was the primary supplier of post‐larval blue crabs throughout the northern basin of Pamlico Sound, as crabs ingressing through Hatteras Inlet to the south were not retained within our study area. A dispersal pathway connecting Oregon Inlet and across‐Sound settlement habitats was evident from field observations. Collectively, our results indicate how multiple forcing agents, coupled with post‐larval vertical positioning within the water column, drive estuarine dispersal and connect spatially separated nursery habitats.     

Multiple spawning events promote increased larval dispersal of a predatory fish in a western boundary current

Transport of larvae by ocean currents is an important dispersal mechanism for many species. The timing and location of spawning can have a large influence on settlement location. Shifts in the known spawning habitat of fish, whether due to climate or the discovery of new spawning stock, can influence the distribution of juveniles and our understanding of connectivity. The globally distributed species; Pomatomus saltatrix, is one such example where a previously unrecognised summer spawning event and a more southern latitudinal extent was recently reported for the southwest Pacific population. Although restrictions are in place to protect the traditional spawning event, the importance of the newly recognised summer spawning event is uncertain. Here, we investigate larval dispersal of P. saltatrix using particle tracking simulations to identify the contributions of the different spawning events to settlement. By modelling dispersal of larvae released in northern and mid‐latitude regions over the Austral spring and summer, we show that the newly recognised mid‐latitude summer spawning event contributes over 50% of the larvae reaching southern latitudes. This is due to a reduced (1–2 days) pelagic larval duration (associated with temperature), resulting in reduced larval mortality, and the seasonal (summer) strengthening of the East Australian Current (EAC) transporting particles ~50 km further south. These findings demonstrate that in dynamic boundary current systems such as the EAC, the final settlement location of larvae that are transported by ocean currents can vary considerably depending on the timing and location of spawning and that multiple spawning events are important for maximum dispersal.     

Decreasing shrimp (Pandalus borealis) sizes off Newfoundland and Labrador – environment or fishing?

During the 1990s, carapace length statistics including minimum size caught (L_min), mean male and female lengths, size at sex transition (L₅₀) and maximum size (L_max) of northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) decreased in commercial and survey catches off Newfoundland and Labrador. Decreased growth rates caused by decreases in per‐capita food availability due to large population increases, exacerbated by increased metabolic demands from higher water temperatures in the mid‐1990s, appear to be the main cause of the size decrease. Fishing could have had an accelerating effect on environmentally driven decreases in shrimp growth and size by ‘cropping’ the largest shrimp from the population. The greatest decreases in shrimp size occurred in Hudson Strait and the adjacent northern shelf, the area which also has the highest densities and largest shrimp. We hypothesize that the greater size decrease here resulted from decreased primary production from decreased nutrient flux into the euphotic zone, caused by increased atmospheric warming, freshwater runoff and stratification during the warming trend of the 1990s.     

A biophysical model to assess the trade‐off between larval recruitment and catch in southern Australia's largest prawn fishery

Data from stock assessment surveys, published research and climate sensors were linked to model the interaction between fishing, physical‐oceanographic processes and spatial patterns of larval settlement for western king prawn [Penaeus (Melicertus) latisulcatus]. This information was used to evaluate the trade‐off between larval recruitment and catch during fishing periods that demand high prices but coincide with spawning. Total rates of larval settlement were maximized when tidal currents and atmospheric physical‐forcing components were coupled with simulations of larval swimming behaviour under average gulf temperatures. Average gulf temperatures sustained longer larval durations and increased larval settlement rates by over 12% compared with warmer gulf conditions simulated under a scenario of global warming. Reproductive data coupled with outputs from the biophysical model identified consistent inter‐annual patterns in the areas contributing to larval settlement success. Areas located in the north‐east, and central‐west of the fishery, consistently contributed to over 40% of all larvae reaching a settlement in each year. Harvest sensitivity analyses indicated that changes in the spatial patterns of pre‐Christmas fishing could lead to improvements in overall rates of the larval settlement while maintaining or improving the levels of catch. Future studies to refine the model inputs relating to physical processes, larval behaviour and mortality rates for P. latisulcatus coupled with surveys of juvenile prawn abundance to ground truth the modelled predictions, would allow stock recruitment relationships to be more closely examined and inform adaptive management of the fishery in the future.     

Towards a more complete understanding of the life cycle of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon): modelling passive larvae and juvenile transport in combination with physically forced vertical juvenile migration

In this study we developed and utilized a complex model approach to investigate the impact of stage‐specific transport processes on the development and spatial distribution of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) post‐larvae and juveniles in the German Bight. First, we focused on drift processes during the pelagic larval stage by coupling an individual‐based model for egg and larval development ‘off‐line’ to a 3D hydrodynamic model utilizing the Lagrangian method. Secondly, we investigated tidal‐induced transport processes after juvenile settlement. To determine the tidal cycle, the model coupling was accomplished ‘on‐line’ by resolving the individual‐based model and hydrodynamic model with the same time step. The vertical migration of juveniles, a prerequisite for the selective tidal stream transport (STST), was modelled as a sub‐grid scale physical process (balance of forces: gravitation, buoyancy, Stoke’s friction and dynamic uplift) and considered complex particle dynamics. We applied the model to test temperature and salinity cues as possible tidal indicators utilized by juvenile brown shrimp. Our results indicated that transport processes could significantly change the timing and spatial distribution of post‐larval abundance. We also showed that the small‐scale hydrodynamic forcing acting on the bodies of juvenile brown shrimps was sufficient to account for the vertical migration required to use STST. For both investigated tidal cues STST performing juvenile brown shrimp were transported on‐shore. A faster and more continuous STST was calculated for the salinity cue, resulting in larger abundances of brown shrimp in estuarine areas.     

Larval dispersal and population connectivity among a network of marine reserves

A major challenge in marine ecology is describing patterns of larval dispersal and population connectivity, as well as their underlying processes. We used a biophysical model to simulate dispersal of eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, larvae and connectivity among a network of 10 no‐take reserves in a shallow, wind‐driven estuary to assess the relative importance of spawning location, spawning date, larval behavior, larval mortality, and adult reproductive output to predicted dispersal and connectivity patterns. The location (i.e., natal reserve) and date of spawning relative to physical processes, particularly frequency of wind reversals, were the dominant drivers of dispersal and connectivity patterns. To a lesser extent, larval behavior (i.e., 3D vertical advection and ontogenetic depth regulation) and mortality modified dispersal and connectivity, whereas spatiotemporal variability in adult reproductive output was of minimal importance. Over a 21‐day larval duration, mean dispersal distance of passive surface particles ranged from 5 to 40 km. Reserves were too small (1 km²) relative to mean dispersal distances to promote extensive local retention (median 2%) and spaced too far apart (typically ~50 km) to promote extensive inter‐reserve connectivity (median 2%). Limited connectivity and local retention may preclude the network from being self‐sustainable, thereby limiting its long‐term conservation and management benefits. In reserve systems characterized by limited connectivity, management efforts should focus on increasing connectivity by increasing the number or size of reserves to realize the benefits of improved adult demographics within reserves.     

Modelling the dispersal of Calanus finmarchicus on the Newfoundland Shelf: implications for the analysis of population dynamics from a high frequency monitoring site

We investigated the drift of passive particles on the Newfoundland Shelf and western Labrador Sea using numerical simulations to assess the possible sources of plankton collected at a high frequency sampling site (S27; 47.55°N, 52.59°W) located near the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. We also summarized data detailing the seasonal stage succession of Calanus finmarchicus at that site, as well as along three oceanographic sections sampled in the spring, summer and autumn across the adjacent continental shelf. Simulations indicated that the Labrador and Newfoundland Shelves represent the major sources of particles transiting through the S27 site, with relatively minor contributions from the western Labrador Sea which are significant during a few months each year. The latter point may be affected by uncertainty in the representation of cross‐shelf transport associated with seasonal or short‐term variations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing, which may also affect the strength and location of bifurcation of the inner branch of the Labrador Current around the Grand Banks. Nevertheless, our results indicated that drift along the inner shelf is likely to be the primary source of copepods collected at S27 throughout most of the year. This in turn suggested that there may be a higher degree of connectivity between conditions in coastal areas of Newfoundland and those in Baffin Bay and west Greenland than with the southern half of the Labrador Sea.     

Dispersal of black sea bass (Centropristis striata) larvae on the southeast U.S. continental shelf: results of a coupled vertical larval behavior – 3D circulation model

In the marine environment, pelagic dispersal is important for determining the distribution and abundance of populations, as well as providing connections among populations. Estimates of larval dispersal from spawning grounds are important to determining temporal and spatial patterns in recruitment that may have significant influences on the dynamics of the population. We present a case study of the dispersal of Centropristis striata (black sea bass) larvae on the southeast U.S. continental shelf. We use a coupled larval behavior – 3D circulation model to compare the effects of the timing and location of spawning against that of larval vertical migration on larval dispersal. Using the results of field data on larval vertical distributions, we compare the dispersal of virtual 'larvae' which have ontogenetic changes in vertical behavior with that of particles fixed near the surface and near the bottom. Larvae were released at potential spawning sites four times throughout the spawning season (February through May) for 3 yr (2002–04) and tracked for the assumed larval duration (from 27 to 37 days including the egg stage). Results indicate that adult behavior, in the form of spawning time and location, may be more important than larval vertical behavior in determining larval dispersal on the inner- and mid- continental shelves of this region.     

Modelling giant red shrimp larval dispersal in the Sardinian seas: density and connectivity scenarios

The connectivity and three‐dimensional (3D) dispersion of the larvae of giant red shrimp, potentially released from known spawning areas along the Sardinia slope in the western Mediterranean Sea, were assessed using Lagrangian simulations forced by a 3D submesoscale permitting a regional ocean model. Biophysical simulations using the hydrodynamic conditions of the year 2012 were run to track propagules released from known spawning areas during the spawning period (May to September). Passive transport (PT) and vertical migration (VM) scenarios were tested, each with two possible pelagic larval durations (PLDs) of 21 or 42 days. Dispersion of propagules in the PT and VM scenarios differed in terms of travelled distance, export out of the domain (larger for VM), and depth distribution (shallower and bimodal for VM due to the larger variability of encountered currents). Connectivity patterns were investigated among eight release areas, and four predetermined Eco‐Regions, and results showed strong connectivity among the North‐Western (NW), Western (W), and Southern (S) regions of Sardinia, whereas the Eastern region was more segregated. Differences in connectivity patterns among scenarios were related mainly to the tendency of greater retention of propagules in the release area for the PT scenarios. This finding, together with existing hypotheses of vertical migration likely occurring during first egg‐larval phases, suggest that the VM scenarios are the most probable of the two hypotheses tested. Strong connectivity between the W and S sides of Sardinia and the relative isolation of the E side could have significant implications for the protection of this important resource.     

Dispersal of Eastern King Prawn larvae in a western boundary current: New insights from particle tracking

Patterns in larval transport of coastal species have important implications for species connectivity, conservation, and fisheries, especially in the vicinity of a strengthening boundary current. An Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator particle tracking model was used to assess the potential dispersal of Eastern King Prawn (EKP) larvae Melicertus (Penaeus) plebejus, an important commercial and recreational species in Eastern Australia. Particles were exposed to a constant natural mortality rate, and temperature‐dependent growth (degree‐days) was used to determine the time of settlement. Forward and backward simulations were used to identify the extent of larval dispersal from key source locations, and to determine the putative spawning regions for four settlement sites. The mean dispersal distance for larvae was extensive (~750–1,000 km before settlement), yet the northern spawning locations were unlikely to contribute larvae to the most southern extent of the EKP range. There was generally great offshore dispersal of larvae, with only 2%–5% of larvae on the continental shelf at the time of settlement. Our particle tracking results were combined with existing site‐specific reproductive potentials to identify the relative contributions of larvae from key source locations. Although mid‐latitude sites had only moderate reproductive potential, they delivered the most particles to the southern coast and are probably the most important sources of larval EKP for the two southern estuaries. Our modelling suggests that mesoscale oceanography is a strong determinant of recruitment success of the EKP, and highlights the importance of both larval dispersal and reproductive potential for understanding connectivity across a species’ range.     

Use of satellite data to identify critical periods for early life survival of northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine

The northern shrimp Pandalus borealis is at its southern limit in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), and recruitment success is higher in years with relatively cool water temperature. However, the mechanisms for the temperature effect are not clear. We used rolling window analysis of daily satellite data to identify critical periods for early life survival of the 1998–2012 northern shrimp year‐classes and to investigate the importance of the phenology of the hatch and bloom. Survival was negatively correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) during a 6‐week period around the time of larval emergence (late winter) and during a 4‐week period in late summer when SST and stratification reached annual maxima. Survival was negatively correlated with chlorophyll‐a concentration (chl‐a) during two 5‐week periods centered approximately a month before the hatch midpoint and around the time of settlement to the benthos. A small‐magnitude winter bloom occurred around the time of the hatch in many years, but our results did not reveal a link between survival and bloom‐hatch phenology. The timing of winter and spring blooms were correlated with SST during the preceding 10 months. A survival model including SST and chl‐a during the critical periods explained 73% of the variance in survival. Summer SST increased significantly during the study period; the other critical variables showed no trend. The rolling windows approach revealed sensitive periods in early life history that may not have otherwise been hypothesized, providing a foundation for research towards a greater understanding of processes affecting recruitment.     

Variation in the distribution of ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits: links with coastal upwelling and climate change

In this analysis, an atypical northward shift in the distribution of age‐1 ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) recruits off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–2004 was linked to anomolously strong coastal upwelling winds off southern Oregon (42°N latitude) in April–July of the year of larval release (t?1). This is the first clear evidence that strong upwelling winds can depress local recruitment of ocean shrimp. Regression analysis confirmed a long‐term negative correlation between log_e of ocean shrimp recruitment and April sea level height (SLH) at Crescent City, California, in the year of larval release, for both northern and southern Oregon waters. The regional pattern of ocean shrimp catches and seasonal upwelling winds showed that, although the timing of the spring transition as reflected in April SLH drives ocean shrimp recruitment success off Oregon generally, the strength and consistency of spring upwelling limits the distribution of large concentrations of ocean shrimp at the southern end of the northern California/Oregon/Washington area. A northward shift in 1999 and 2001–03 in the northern edge of this ‘zone of maximum upwelling’ is the likely cause of the weak southern Oregon recruitment and resulting atypical distribution of ocean shrimp observed off Oregon in 2000 and 2002–04, with a return to a more typical catch distribution as spring upwelling moderated in subsequent years. It is noted that a northward shift in the conditions that produce strong and steady spring upwelling winds is consistent with many predictions of global climate models under conditions of global warming.     

Spawning success and early life history of longnose suckers in Great Lakes tributaries

Fish eggs and larvae are often subject to very high mortality, and variation in early life survival can be important for population dynamics. Although longnose suckers (Catostomus catostomus) are widespread in northern North America, little is known about their early life history. We examined fecundity and early larval survivorship during sucker spawning events in three small Lake Michigan tributaries. Although egg deposition varied 25% among spawning events, estimated larval export to the lake varied over 25,000‐fold from around 1000 to 26 million. Based on variation in environmental conditions across years, it appears that spring flow and temperature may be important determinants of egg survival to larval outmigration. Larval age data suggest that most individuals that survived to outmigration hatched during a 2‐day period despite adult spawning across at least 10 days. Most larvae spent <2 weeks in the stream and emigrated around the time of transition from endogenous to exogenous feeding before substantial growth occurred. In two of three cases, larvae drifted exclusively at night; however, high drift rates occurred during both day and night in the case where larvae were very abundant, suggesting density‐dependent drift behaviour. Our results indicate that survival in tributary streams from egg deposition to larval export is highly variable in longnose suckers. These large differences in early life survival may translate into variability in recruitment, thereby influencing population structure and dynamics.     

Environmental influences on the recruitment of Newfoundland/Labrador Cod*

This paper investigates possible linkages between the environment and year-class success of Newfoundland/ Labrador cod. Aspects of the physical environment relevant to recruitment are reviewed and the current knowledge of the patterns of spawning and larval occurrence is summarized. A critical review of investigations aimed at correlating recruitment with climactic fluctuations is made and concludes that these studies have been largely fruitless. A series of numerical simulations of particle drift are presented to investigate the potential importance of storms and to try to identify nursery grounds. These simulations suggest that Labrador Shelf eggs and larvae are segregated from Grand Banks eggs and larvae. Favorable storm tracks appear to be required for significant numbers of eggs and larvae to reach the bays of Northeast Newfoundland.     

Latitudinal shifts in coral reef fishes: why some species do and others do not shift

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of many tropical fish species, but it is equally apparent that some fishes are failing to exhibit expected shifts in their geographical distribution. There is still little understanding of the species‐specific traits that may constrain or promote successful establishment of populations in temperate regions. We review the factors likely to affect population establishment, including larval supply, settlement and post‐settlement processes. In addition, we conduct meta‐analyses on existing and new data to examine relationships between species‐specific traits and vagrancy. We show that tropical vagrant species are more likely to originate from high‐latitude populations, while at the demographic level, tropical fish species with large body size, high swimming ability, large size at settlement and pelagic spawning behaviour are more likely to show successful settlement into temperate habitats. We also show that both habitat and food limitation at settlement and within juvenile stages may constrain tropical vagrant communities to those species with medium to low reliance on coral resources.     

Ocean climate effects on the relative abundance of short-finned (Illex illecebrosus) and long-finned (Loligo pealeii) squid in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

An unusually high abundance of long‐finned squid (Loligo pealeii) was observed around southern Newfoundland in August–September 2000. The prevalence of maturing females and mature males, along with the collection of a single viable egg mop, provide the first evidence of spawning of this species at the northern limit of its geographic range of distribution. Northward expansion of the long‐finned squid population may be related to a general warming trend in Newfoundland near‐shore waters. However, trends in size and abundance of short‐finned squid (Illex illecebrosus) suggest that this expansion may also be related to reduced competition. We hypothesize that these two squid species share, to a large extent, a common niche on the eastern USA shelf and that opposing responses to ecosystem variation affect their relative abundance. We address this hypothesis by applying time‐series analysis of species‐specific fishery‐ and survey‐based abundance indices with biologic and environmental input variables. Our models indicate that direct competition is not important, but that variation in atmospheric forcing, as well as latitudinal position of the Shelf‐Slope Front (SSF), are closely related to direct oceanographic processes that exert opposing effects on these two species. While the direct oceanographic mechanisms that regulate year‐class strength remain unknown, we present a hypothesis to account for opposing population responses to oceanographic variation that operates early in the life history of both species. For the oceanic and highly migratory short‐finned squid, variation in the latitudinal position of the SSF is related to efficiency of downstream dispersal by the Gulf Stream and survival of young stages. For the neritic long‐finned squid, variation in local inshore temperature affects the time exposed to intense predation through its effect on rates of embryonic development and growth. The expansion of long‐finned squid population abundance in 2000 was associated with both warm local water temperatures and an unusual eastward displacement of the atmospheric features associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These conditions may have resulted in an unfavorable oceanic regime for short‐finned squid but a favorable regime for long‐finned squid on the continental shelf as far north as southern Newfoundland.     

Connectivity of the bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) in Buzzards Bay,Massachusetts, U.S.A.

The harvest of bay scallops (Argopecten irradians) from Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, U.S.A. undergoes large interannual fluctuations, varying by more than an order of magnitude in successive years. To investigate the extent to which these fluctuations may be due to yearly variations in the transport of scallop larvae from spawning areas to suitable juvenile habitat (settlement zones), a high‐resolution hydrodynamic model was used to drive an individual‐based model of scallop larval transport. Model results revealed that scallop spawning in Buzzards Bay occurs during a time when nearshore bay currents were principally directed up‐bay in response to a persistent southwesterly sea breeze. This nearshore flow results in the substantial transport of larvae from lower‐bay spawning areas to settlement zones further up‐bay. Averaged over the entire bay, the spawning‐to‐settlement zone connectivity exhibits little interannual variation. However, connectivities between individual spawning and settlement zones vary by up to an order of magnitude. The model results identified spawning areas that have the greatest probability of transporting larvae to juvenile habitat. Because managers may aim to increase scallop populations either locally or broadly, the high‐connectivity spawning areas were divided into: (i) high larval retention and relatively little larval transport to adjoining settlement areas, (ii) both significant larval retention and transport to more distant settlement areas, and (iii) little larval retention but significant transport to distant settlement areas.     

The role of environmental conditions and exploitation in determining dynamics of redfish (Sebastes species) in the Northwest Atlantic

The six stocks of redfish (Sebastes spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic have been fished for the past 60 years, during which time they have also experienced considerable variability in environmental conditions. Despite their close proximity and with life‐history features characteristic of many deep‐sea fishes (long‐lived, slow‐growing, late‐maturing, relatively low fecundity), each redfish stock has displayed quite different dynamics. Some have been able to support apparently sustainable fisheries, whereas others have been forced to close. The causes of such differences are unclear. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine the relative impacts of exploitation (days fishing for redfish, days fishing for shrimp, days fished by all fisheries, catch in the redfish fishery, total redfish catch) and environment (North Atlantic Oscillation, surface temperature, salinity, shallow, middle, and deep bottom temperatures) on trends of abundance in each stock over the years 1960–2004. The results showed that a mix of exploitation and environmental variability, with various and different lag times, accounted for observed trends. The Gulf of St. Lawrence stock was affected most by exploitation. Flemish Cap and northern Newfoundland‐Labrador stocks were mostly affected by environmental factors with longer time lags than more southerly stocks. We conclude that management of redfish must take into account individual responses to exploitation and environment over the time periods during which such factors operate, often decades or more, as opposed to the usual practice of reviewing only dynamics of the past few years. Deep‐sea populations cannot be managed on the same scales as shelf fisheries.     

Understanding imperfect detection in a San Francisco Estuary long‐term larval and juvenile fish monitoring programme

Imperfect detection can present a significant challenge when monitoring for a rare and imperilled species. Here, a long‐term larval and early‐juvenile fish monitoring programme in the upper San Francisco Estuary was examined to evaluate its overall reliability in detecting various fish species, including the imperilled delta smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus McAllister, for which the programme was designed. Using occupancy modelling, detection probability of species with pelagic larval or juvenile life stages was found to be generally high (≥.95) based on the current sampling effort of three larval net tows per site. However, detection probability can vary considerably from year to year depending on the species’ level of larval production. Water temperature and turbidity were identified as important predictors of occurrence for young‐of‐year delta smelt, longfin smelt Spirinchus thaleichthys (Ayres) and striped bass Morone saxatilis (Walbaum), and there was evidence for fish size selectivity by the sampling gear in all three species. These results highlight the need to consider adaptively managing detection probability by increasing sampling effort in years when young‐of‐year delta smelt abundance is expected to be low, especially when information on the species’ occurrence at a particular region is critical.     

Effect of environmental conditions on the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of small pelagic fish abundance off North‐West Africa: The case of both Senegalese sardinella

The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.