Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.     

A simulation model to study land use strategies in swidden agriculture systems

Development has ended isolation in many parts of Kalimantan, Indonesia, and provides previously isolated communities with the opportunity for greater involvement in a market economy. This paper describes the use of a simulation model to study the possible impacts of greater involvement in cash cropping in swidden agricultural systems. The model uses both individual-based and rule-based modelling approaches. The model formulation is based on a previous report of the social structure, culture and agricultural production system of the Kantu’ in West Kalimantan [Dove, M.R., 1985. Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantu’. Mouton Publishers, Berlin]. The model simulates: (1) births, deaths, marriage, household formation and dissolution; (2) land use decisions on the type, number and location of swidden cultivation; and (3) tracks the consequences of those decisions at a landscape level as well as the economic welfare of the households. The model deals with swidden cultivation of rice and the planting and tapping of rubber. The paper presents a simulation ‘experiment’ that compares different land use strategies under a scenario of fluctuating rubber price. An important finding is that maintaining swidden cultivation as ‘an option’ in the farming system, rather than permanently replacing swidden cultivation with cash cropping, appears to be a safer strategy to moderate the impact of commodity price fluctuations.     

论我国农业机械化的几个关系

论述了我国农业机械化进程中发生的农业机械化与合作化、人多地少、精耕细作、生态农业、包产到户等关系的争论与实践;对农业机械化与社会进步和经济发展,机电动力与劳力、畜力,农机与农艺,农业机械化与经济效益、规模经营、地区差别等关系进行了研究,提出了正确处理的原则或方针。还根据市场经济体系的建设和农村经济的发展,提出了农业机械化的新特点与新任务。     

Identification and selection of technology for a specific agricultural region: A case study of sheep husbandry and dryland farming in the northern Negev of Israel

The chances that innovative technology will succeed in a given agricultural region are difficult to determine in advance. Information that would point to the likely or optimum course of development would be very useful for development planning and applied agricultural research administration. An approach is presented whereby the diffusion of new technology can be analysed in the context of a developing region. The development of sheep husbandry and wheat cultivation systems in a semi-arid agropastoral region in the northern Negev of Israel is used as a case study. The approach employed involves defining the input/output relations of a set of technologies based on wheat cultivation and on an increasingly intensive range of sheep production systems. The region is defined by its borders, land classes, physical and financial capital, available labour, plant and animal genetic stock and climatic conditions. An optimum mix of technologies over a development period is determined by using a multiperiod linear programming routine. The technology assessment is then conducted by varying the future socio-economic scenarios of the region and analysing the response of the model.The results indicated that the most fertile sheep breed, the Finn cross, would be selected only if labour were plentiful and cheap. It would also be selected whenever the demand for sheep created high shadow prices—especially at the beginning of a development period. The local, relatively extensive, breed of sheep (Awassi) is maintained over a long period even when meat: grain price ratios are high. Eventually, it tends to phase out in favour of a more intensive breed, the German Mutton Merino. The high price ratio did not result in massive transfer to confined, intensive husbandry but increased the use of improved pasture on cultivable land.     

社会化服务发达条件下粮食生产农户土地流转意愿研究:以山东省平度市为例

运用有序多分类Logistic回归分析法对社会化服务发达条件下粮食生产农户的土地流转意愿及影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明，不同兼业条件下的农户土地流转意愿存在显著差异，纯农户希望保持不变的意愿比较强烈，二兼农户希望流出土地的意愿表现较强。影响兼业农户不同流转意愿的因素主要有户主年龄、受教育程度、非农收入所占比例、兼业用工所占比例和农用生产资料费用。      

水资源与经济要素匹配对农业用水效率的影响——基于新疆的经验分析

为了探讨新疆水资源与经济发展要素的匹配程度及其对新疆农业水利用效率的而影响。通过统计2004-2013年新疆水资源、经济发展水平、人口增长和耕地面积等数据,运用基尼系数、农区水利用综合系数和时间序列模型进行了实证检验,结果表明新疆水资源与经济发展和耕地面积的匹配度处于"相对平均"的阶段,而新疆水资源与人口增长的匹配度处于"两极分化"阶段。新疆水资源匹配度与新疆农业水利用之间存在着长期稳定的关系,新疆水资源和耕地面积的匹配度与新疆农业水利用效率呈双向因果关系,但是新疆农业水利用效率与新疆水资源和经济发展、人口增长的匹配度之间只存在着单向的因果关系。     

2BM-2免耕播种机的设计及试验研究

随着人类农业生产活动的不断进行,人口的迅速膨胀,要求粮食生产的总产量不断地提高,以满足人口增长的需求.为满足人类对粮食的消耗,掠夺式地开发土地资源,毁林开荒,毁草开荒的现象非常严重.保护性耕作是相对于传统耕作的一种新的耕作技术,是作物茎秆还田和免耕、少耕技术的结合.免耕播种机是保护性耕作能否推广的关键性机具.为此,研究设计了2BM-2免耕播种机,并在不同地表条件下进行了试验,试验收到了良好的效果,为保护性耕作的进一步推广提供了保证.     

社会化服务发达条件下粮食生产农户土地流转意愿研究

本文运用有序多分类Logistic回归分析法对社会化服务发达条件下粮食生产农户的土地流转意愿及影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,不同兼业条件下的农户土地流转意愿存在显著差异,纯农户希望保持不变的意愿比较强烈,二兼农户希望流出土地的意愿表现较强。影响农户不同流转意愿的因素主要有户主年龄、受教育程度、非农收入所占比重、兼业用工所占比重、农用生产资料费用。     

Analysis of information systems and communication networks for organic and conventional hazelnut producers in the Samsun province of Turkey

This research presents an analysis of the agricultural information systems and communication networks for organic and conventional hazelnut producers in the Samsun province of Turkey. Structured interviews were used to collect data from 64 randomly selected conventional and all 39 organic hazelnut producers living in the study area. Information systems for organic and conventional producers were found to be different. Organic producers benefited from more information sources than conventional producers. In addition, the contract farming approach to organic agriculture had initially isolated organic producers from conventional producers. Furthermore, dissatisfaction from the organic marketing company and its organic production project resulted in further separation among organic producers and led some of them to establish their own union. The lack of access to information and support from the organic project-related sources, professional institutions and mass media sources was evident. This resulted in the development of social sources to exchange information among the producers within their villages. However, this information is mainly based on traditional practices rather than scientific applications. Thus, more functional cooperation and professional communication between personal and institutional information sources are needed to enhance the diffusion of information and technology among farmers.     

Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa

The East African region exhibits considerable climatic and topographic variability. Much spatial and temporal variation in the response of different crops to climate change can thus be anticipated. In previous work we showed that a large part of this variation can be explained in terms of temperature and, to a lesser extent, water effects. Here, we summarise simulated yield response in two crops that are widely grown in the region, maize and beans, and investigate how the impacts of climate change might be addressed at two levels: the agricultural system and the household. Regionally, there are substantial between-country and within-system differences in maize and bean production responses projected to 2050. The arid-semiarid mixed crop-livestock systems are projected to see reductions in maize and bean production throughout most of the region to 2050. Yields of these crops in the tropical highland mixed systems are projected to increase, sometimes substantially. The humid-subhumid mixed systems show more varied yield responses through time and across space. Some within-country shifts in cropping away from the arid-semiarid systems to cooler, higher-elevation locations may be possible, but increased regional trade should be able to overcome the country-level production deficits in maize and beans caused by climate change to 2050, all other things being equal. For some places in the tropical highlands, maize and bean yield increases could have beneficial effects on household food security and income levels. In the other mixed systems, moderate yield losses can be expected to be offset by crop breeding and agronomic approaches in the coming decades, while more severe yield losses may necessitate changes in crop types, movement to more livestock-orientated production, or abandonment of cropping altogether. These production responses are indicative only, and their effects will be under-estimated because the methods used here have not accounted for increasing weather variability in the future or changes in the distribution and impacts of biotic and other abiotic stresses. These system-level shifts will take place in a context characterised by high population growth rates; the demand for food is projected to nearly triple by the middle of this century. Systems will have to intensify substantially in response, particularly in the better-endowed mixed systems in the region. For the more marginal areas, the variability in yield response, and the variability in households’ ability to adapt, suggest that, even given the limitations of this analysis, adaptation options need to be assessed at the level of the household and the local community, if research for development is to meet its poverty alleviation and food security targets in the face of global change.     

京津冀地区耕地质量空间分布分形机制研究

为了进一步推进京津冀耕地规划统筹和协调配置,实施耕地质量空间管制与全面提升机制,保障京津冀协同发展的耕地资源需求,采用GIS技术、分形理论、灰色关联度分析相结合的方法,系统研究京津冀耕地质量空间分布分形特征及其机制。主要结论为:京津冀耕地质量在空间上呈现规律分布的态势,具有南北差异明显、南高北低、区域边缘低、中间高的特征;分形理论可以用于京津冀耕地质量空间分布的结构特征研究,分形特征反映了京津冀耕地质量类型的空间形态复杂性和空间占据度。京津冀高等地空间结构最简单,形态最稳定,空间占据度在自然质量水平上最高,在经济质量水平上最低;中等地的空间结构和稳定性居中,但空间占据度最大;低等地空间结构复杂度、空间形态稳定性和空间占据度与高等地完全相反。影响京津冀耕地质量分形特征的主要因素是光温/气候等自然条件,农业生产条件和社会经济条件在此基础上进一步扰动了其分形特征。     

Patterns and determinants of agricultural systems in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Against the backdrop of environmental degradation and poverty caused by traditional agricultural systems in the mountain regions, this study classified agricultural systems in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh and analyzed their determinants, with the objective of seeking policies for environmentally compatible and economically viable agricultural systems. Information was collected from 36 tribal villages of Bandarban district through household survey, group discussion, observation, key informant interview, and secondary sources. In view of the complex heterogeneity of prevailing agricultural systems in the surveyed villages, systems were classified into three major groups – extensive, semi-extensive and intensive – using cluster analysis. The factors determining these three types of agricultural systems were analyzed using factor analysis. Discriminant analysis was performed to explore the relative influence of these predicted factors. Institutional support, including land tenure, extension services and credit facilities, productive resource base and the distance to the market and service centres were found to be the major factors influencing agricultural systems in the study area. Provision of appropriate institutional support, including a secure system of land tenure, is indispensable for enabling poor mountain farmers to adopt environmentally and economically sound intensive agricultural systems such as plantation, agroforestry and livestock husbandry. Emphasis is also laid on linking mountain regions to other regions through the development of infrastructure such as roads.     

Pathways to breaking the poverty trap in Ethiopia: Investments in agricultural water, education, and markets

Investments in agricultural water management should complement or strengthen the livelihood and coping systems of the rural poor, and should thus be instrumental for breaking the poverty trap in Ethiopia. Underdeveloped water resources constrain progress towards poverty reduction. We examine linkages and complementarities between agricultural water, education, markets and rural poverty through an empirical study using household level data from selected villages in southern Ethiopia. We show that investments in irrigation can contribute to poverty reduction, but the poverty reducing impacts of irrigation water are greater when human capital and rural markets are well developed. The size of landholding, access to irrigation water, on-farm land and water conservation practices, literacy of the household head, and years of education of adults are all significant determinants of household welfare, and thus potential pathways for reducing poverty. Expansion of cultivated land, particularly irrigated land, universal literacy, and an extra school year for adults all reduce poverty, but reductions in poverty are greater when irrigation is combined with universal literacy. These findings call for simultaneous investments in agricultural water, education, markets and related policy support measures for reducing poverty in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia.     

发达国家农业规模化生产发展经验及对我国农业发展的思考

随着乡村振兴战略的实施,农业规模化生产经营已经成为农业现代化发展的必由之路。该文通过分析发达国家的农业规模化发展特点、发展现状、政府扶持政策以及新型经营主体建设和管理,总结发达国家农业规模化发展的先进经验,并结合我国人多地少的现状,在土地流转与集中政策、标准化与专业化种植、社会化服务组织、职业化农民培育和农业经营主体建设等方面对我国农业规模化生产经营提出发展建议,以促进我国农业现代化发展。      

Changing patterns of water distribution under the influence of land reforms and simultaneous WUA establishment

In 2005 the Uzbek government accelerated the dissolution process of collective farms through full-scale land reform. As the central production unit, the collective enterprise was supplanted by a private, family-based enterprise. Simultaneously Water Users Associations (WUAs) were established that operate and maintain the irrigation and drainage infrastructure of the former collective farms. Though these land-cum-water reforms could in principle initiate enormous changes, there is still a strong continuity due to the state-regulated agricultural system. Although officially only cotton and wheat production are still subject to a state order system, the whole agricultural production is still under strict state control. This paper builds on research conducted during the spring and summer of 2005 and 2006 in the oasis of Khorezm, Uzbekistan. Through field walks in combination with semi- and non-structured interviews, two cases of water management at former collective farm (FCF) level were distinguished: one at the onset of reform and one two years after full-scale reforms. The former shows the strong interlinkage at FCF level between the control of agricultural production and water management. However, the second case shows that even in the post-reform context, where the co-ordination of production and the control of cropping areas are formally no longer arranged at this level, these functions are informally reproduced through the new institutions. The WUA forms a crucial link between privatised producers and a state preoccupied with control.     

Role of root and tuber crops in food production strategy for semi-subsistence agriculture

Persistent population pressure on agricultural land in the tropics has led to the evolution of food production strategies heavily weighted towards increasing productivity per unit of land. In many of these same areas, tropical root crops represent a major item in the national food economies. Given this scenario, this paper examines the potential role of tropical root crops in meeting domestic food needs. First, the present contribution of root crops to food production is briefly summarised and used to provide simple guidelines for allocating research resources. These guidelines are somewhat deficient in that they overlook a number of energetic considerations of importance at both the individual producer and national level. To illustrate, a two-goods model of a semi-subsistence agricultural production unit is constructed and some conclusions drawn which lend weight to the opinion that tropical root crop research should receive high priority.     

重庆市永川区水稻生产全程机械化技术实践

2017年,重庆市永川区组织实施了农业部主要农作物生产全程机械化示范项目（水稻生产全程机械化）。通过精心组织实施,全面完成了项目各项建设任务,达到预期效果。通过项目的实施,示范区内水稻生产在耕地、播种、植保、机收、烘干和秸杆处理关键环节实行了全程机械化作业,经济效益、社会效益和生态效益明显,示范区水稻生产耕种收综合机械化水平达到98.5%,形成了一套适合永川区水稻生产全程机械化的技术模式及农机装备配置模式。      

鄄城县农机化发展的调查与思考

随着我国政府的惠农政策的加大,鄄城县农机事业得到长足发展.但是,目前从事农业生产的人员大部分是妇女儿童,农机合作社程度不高,以家庭为单位的农业生产占较大比重,严重影响了农业的机械化程度.农业生产中所急需的新形农机具还需要加快研发推广应用.随着土地自由流转政策的成熟,鄄城县农业机械化程度将会更普及,农业生产将会发生重大变...     

唐县未利用地转型的生态风险变化研究

开展县域生态风险评价可为县域生态风险防控与生态环境保护提供科学依据.以河北省唐县为研究区域,基于2000年、2007年和2018年3期土地利用数据,从风险源、风险受体暴露度、风险效应三个方面构建生态风险评价模型,对唐县未利用地转型前后的生态风险及其时空变化、影响因素进行分析.研究结果表明:20002018年,提供生态空...