Exploiting host resistance to reduce the use of fungicides to control potato late blight

Field trials in 1996, 1997 and 1998 with six potato cultivars differing in levels of foliar and tuber race-nonspecific resistance to late blight were treated with 100, 50 and 33% of the recommended dose of the fungicide fluazinam at application intervals of 7, 14 and 21 days. Using a mixed inoculum of six or seven indigenous isolates of Phytophthora infestans small potato plots were inoculated via infector plants. A foliar blight model for the relationship between the effects of resistance, fungicide application and disease pressure was developed using multiple regression analysis. Cultivars with a high level of quantitative resistance offered the greatest potential for fungicide reduction. The model showed that the effect of resistance on integrated control increased exponentially with increasing cultivar resistance. Reducing fungicide input by lowering the dose resulted in less foliar disease than extending application intervals. The higher the disease pressure, the greater the risk associated with reducing fungicide input by extension of application intervals. The field resistance of cultivars to tuber blight mainly determined the frequency of tuber infection. Exploiting high foliar resistance to reduce fungicide input carried a high risk when cultivar resistance to tuber blight was low. When field resistance to tuber blight was high, a medium level of resistance in the foliage could be exploited to reduce fungicide dose to c . 50%, provided application was at the right time. At a high level of field resistance to both foliar and tuber blight, application intervals could be extended.     

中国马铃薯晚疫病监测预警系统“China-blight”的组建及运行

马铃薯晚疫病是严重威胁世界马铃薯生产和粮食安全的重要病害之一,同时也是植物病害中流行速度最快的病害之一。由于品种多不抗病,目前国内外主要依靠化学防治控制该病害。为了提高用药的时效性,将信息技术与植物病害流行学原理相结合,设计并组建了中国马铃薯晚疫病监测预警系统"China-blight"(www.china-blight.net)。该系统由"中国晚疫病实时分布"、"未来48小时不同区域晚疫病菌侵染危险性预测"和"晚疫病化学防治决策支持系统"等子系统构成,此外还包括"晚疫病防治方法"、"品种抗病性"、"化学药剂库"、"其他病虫害"、"问题与经验交流"和"用户田间管理电子档案"等知识信息与服务功能。通过对2009年我国北方马铃薯一作区6-7月份病害侵染时段出现次数与晚疫病实际发生情况进行比较,预测信息与病害实际发生程度相符,该系统可以用于对马铃薯晚疫病田间防治的指导。     

Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GIS-linked disease forecast models

Global severity of potato late blight was estimated by linking two disease forecast models, Blitecast and Simcast, to a climate data base in a geographic information system (GIS). The disease forecast models indirectly estimate late blight severity by determining how many sprays are needed during a growing season as a function of the weather. Global zonation of estimated late blight severity was similar for both forecast models, but Blitecast generally predicted a lower number of sprays. With both forecast models, there were strong differences between potato production zones. Zones of high late blight severity include the tropical highlands, western Europe, the east coast of Canada and northern USA, south-eastern Brazil and central-southern China. Major production zones with a low late blight severity include the western plains in India, where irrigated potato is produced in the cool dry season, north-central China, and the north-western USA. Using a global GIS data base of potato production, the average number of sprays was calculated by country. These averages were compared with estimates of current fungicide use. The results using Blitecast and Simcast were correlated but only Blitecast estimates correlated with observed data for developed countries. The estimated number of sprays, whether from Blitecast or Simcast, did not correlate with the observed number of sprays in developing countries, and in a number of developing countries the predicted optimal number of sprays was much higher than the actual number observed. In these countries, increased access to host resistance and fungicides could have a strong economic impact.     

INDO-BLIGHTCAST – a model for forecasting late blight across agroecologies

A late blight forecasting model “INDO-BLIGHTCAST” has been developed at the Central Potato Research Institute, Shimla, India using meteorological data and late blight appearance dates at four locations in the Indo-Gangetic plains. The model involves computation of physiological days (P-days) and mean relative humidity (RH) of the night, accrued over seven consecutive days. Late blight was predicted to appear within 15 days if moving cumulative effective temperature (P-days) and RH exceeded 52.5 and 525, respectively for seven consecutive days. The developed model was also tested against independent data sets at three locations in the plains, two in plateau region and three in the hills. Statistical comparisons of observed and predicted dates of late blight appearance showed that the mean absolute error was 10.48, while the residual mean square error was only 13.17 indicating that the errors were quite low. The Willmott D index was 0.84 which is quite close to unity thus indicating high accuracy of model predictions and its applicability across regions and seasons. Receiver operating characteristic analysis also confirmed the superiority of this combination (accuracy of 73.6%, AUC of 0.725) to predict late blight appearance as well as its non-appearance in unfavourable years.     

Invasion of Phytophthora infestans at the landscape level: how do spatial scale and weather modulate the consequences of spatial heterogeneity in host resistance?

Strategic spatial patterning of crop species and cultivars could make agricultural landscapes less vulnerable to plant disease epidemics, but experimentation to explore effective disease-suppressive landscape designs is problematic. Here, we present a realistic, multiscale, spatiotemporal, integrodifference equation model of potato late blight epidemics to determine the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and disease spread, and determine the effectiveness of mixing resistant and susceptible cultivars at different spatial scales under the influence of weather. The model framework comprised a landscape generator, a potato late blight model that includes host and pathogen life cycles and fungicide management at the field scale, and an atmospheric dispersion model that calculates spore dispersal at the landscape scale. Landscapes consisted of one or two distinct potato-growing regions (6.4-by-6.4-km) embedded within a nonhost matrix. The characteristics of fields and growing regions and the separation distance between two growing regions were investigated for their effects on disease incidence, measured as the proportion of fields with ≥1% severity, after inoculation of a single potato grid cell with a low initial level of disease. The most effective spatial strategies for suppressing disease spread in a region were those that reduced the acreage of potato or increased the proportion of a resistant potato cultivar. Clustering potato cultivation in some parts of a region, either by planting in large fields or clustering small fields, enhanced the spread within such a cluster while it delayed spread from one cluster to another; however, the net effect of clustering was an increase in disease at the landscape scale. The planting of mixtures of a resistant and susceptible cultivar was a consistently effective option for creating potato-growing regions that suppressed disease spread. It was more effective to mix susceptible and resistant cultivars within fields than plant some fields entirely with a susceptible cultivar and other fields with a resistant cultivar, at the same ratio of susceptible to resistant potato plants at the landscape level. Separation distances of at least 16 km were needed to completely prevent epidemic spread from one potato-growing region to another. Effects of spatial placement of resistant and susceptible potato cultivars depended strongly on meteorological conditions, indicating that landscape connectivity for the spread of plant disease depends on the particular coincidence between direction of spread, location of fields, distance between the fields, and survival of the spores depending on the weather. Therefore, in the simulation of (airborne) pathogen invasions, it is important to consider the large variability of atmospheric dispersion conditions.     

Forecasting the spread of aerially transmitted crop diseases with a binary classifier for inoculum survival

The risk of between‐field spread of disease is typically omitted from crop disease warning systems, as it is difficult to know the number and location of inoculum sources and thus predict the abundance of inoculum arriving at healthy crops. This study explores the utility of a simple approach to predicting risk of between‐field spread, based on the estimated probability that inoculum will survive the transportation process. Using potato late blight as a case study, the effect of solar radiation on the viability of detached Phytophthora infestans sporangia was assessed. A model to estimate the probability of spore survival was derived using a binomial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and cross‐validation were used to evaluate the global performance of the model as a binary classifier for discriminating between viable and nonviable sporangia. The model yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.92 (95% CI = 0.90–0.93), signifying an excellent classification algorithm. Inspection of the curve provided a number of suitable decision threshold (or cut‐off) probabilities for discriminating between viable and nonviable sporangia. The classifier was tested as a forecasting system for potato late blight outbreaks using 10 years of outbreak data from across Great Britain. There was a marked differentiation among the cut‐offs, but the best prediction outcome was an accuracy of 89% with an alert frequency of 1 in 7 days. This model can be easily modified or the methodology replicated for other pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum.     

Untersuchungen zur Befallsentwicklung und Ertragswirkung der Dürrfleckenkrankheit (Alternaria spp.) in Kartoffelsorten unterschiedlicher Reifegruppe

Early blight is a major disease of potatoes which has established in most potato growing areas as a destructive disease. The integration of several factors like weather conditions, nutrition, the use of potent fungicides as well as the cultivation of tolerant varieties are essential parts of an integrated control strategy and can be effective in preventing early blight disease. Cultivar resistance to early blight disease has become more important due to losses in fungicide sensitivity. Nevertheless, little research has been directed towards this area. Several, perennial field trials were carried out in order to investigate disease susceptibility for varieties out of different maturity groups. Early maturing varieties have shown to be more susceptible. The disease intensity (AUDPC) was much more expressed in early varieties contrary to medium and late maturing varieties. However, a stronger impact on potato yield has been found in the medium to late maturing varieties. We discuss the relevance of time and amount of leaf damage for formation of tuber yield.     

黄土高原马铃薯晚疫病发生发展与气象条件关系的研究—以甘肃定西市为例

应用1991-2005年马铃薯晚疫病发生地点、面积、发展趋势等资料,结合气象要素观测资料,采用数理统计方法,分析马铃薯晚疫病发生发展及其与气象条件的关系。结果表明:研究区域马铃薯晚疫病历年发病面积比例呈显著上升趋势,发病面积比例以每年3.5437%的速度增加。马铃薯晚疫病发病面积比例与5~10月马铃薯生长季相对湿度、降水量、气温等呈正相关,而与日照时数、平均风速呈负相关。当可控条件一定时,气象条件是马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的主导因素。本文建立了马铃薯晚疫病发病面积比例气候预测模型,为马铃薯晚疫病的积极防治及科学决策提供了依据。     

Late-blight epidemics on potato in Finland, 1933–2002; increased and earlier occurrence of epidemics associated with climate change and lack of rotation

Changes in the incidence and onset of potato late-blight epidemics in Finland were investigated and compared with possible changes in climate, presence of soil-borne inoculum, and aggressiveness of Phytophthora infestans populations. Datasets were constructed from leaf blight assessments in cultivar trials or fungicide tests carried out at eight experimental sites during the periods 1933–1962 and 1983–2002. Additional data were obtained from late-blight monitoring projects carried out from 1991 to 2002. From 1998 to 2002, the risk of blight outbreak was 17-fold higher compared with the periods 1933–62 and 1983–1997. Simultaneously, the outbreaks of the epidemics began 2–4 weeks earlier. The changes observed were associated with a climate more conducive to blight in the late 1990s. Lack of rotation also advanced blight epidemics by an average of 9 days in 1998–2002, but it did not have this effect in 1992–1997, suggesting that soil borne inoculum may not have been a significant threat to potato until the late 1990s. The aggressiveness of the P. infestans isolates seemed to have only minor effect on the onset of the epidemics after 1991, as the apparent infection rate remained unchanged despite weather conditions more favourable to late blight in the late 1990s. As a consequence of the more frequent and earlier epidemics, the sales of fungicides used against late blight in Finland increased 4-fold from the 1980s to 2002.     

马铃薯与致病疫霉互作研究进展与展望

马铃薯是重要的粮食作物, 由致病疫霉侵染引发的晚疫病长期严重制约马铃薯产业的健康发展, 因此, 国内外均将马铃薯晚疫病列为重大病害。目前, 抗病品种选育栽培、晚疫病预测预报和化学防治等相结合的晚疫病综合防治手段已得到普遍推广, 但晚疫病局部大流行在全世界范围内仍时有发生, 给粮食安全和生态安全带来巨大挑战。本文回顾了我国晚疫病的部分研究历史, 集中关注致病疫霉与寄主的互作机制领域, 梳理了近年来关于致病疫霉侵入机理、效应蛋白毒力功能、病原菌变异规律、马铃薯抗病机理等方面的重要研究结果并展望未来主要的研究方向, 以期为晚疫病基础研究和防治技术革新提供参考。     

Potato cultivars from the mexican national program: sources and durability of resistance against late blight

ABSTRACT The Mexican National Potato Program has produced several cultivars with high levels of field resistance. We evaluated the durability of resistance to potato late blight of a selection of 12 such cultivars using data from 1960 to the present. Data were extracted from the field notebooks located in the archives of the Mexican National Potato Program in the John S. Niederhauser Library in Toluca, Mexico. There was a trend indicating that field resistances to potato late blight of Mexican cultivars released between 1965 to 1999 were durable. At least two of the cultivars, namely 'Sangema' and 'Tollocan', have been grown on at least 4 to 5% of the potato acreage and over long periods of time without decay in levels of field resistance. Pedigrees of the 12 cultivars indicate that most of the field resistance was introgressed from Solanum demissum. Field resistance might also be derived from commonly grown land-race cultivars such as 'Amarilla de Puebla' and 'Leona'. These have been grown in Mexico since about the 1780s. They have the appearance of S. andigena-derived material but their genetic background is unknown.     

Metalaxyl resistance in Phytophthora infestans on greenhouse tomatoes in Greece

In winter/spring 1984 resistance to metalaxyl developed in Phytophthora infestans within tomato greenhouses in Preveza, Greece. The appearance of resistant isolates followed continuous applications of metalaxyl and prevalence of weather conditions favourable for late blight. The majority of resistant isolates grew on tomato leaf discs floated on solutions containing 100 μg/ml metalaxyl whereas sensitive isolates were inhibited at concentrations of 0.1 μg/ml.
In trials within polyethylene tunnels metalaxyl had no effect on the development of the late blight induced by resistant strains but both a mixture of this fungicide with mancozeb and mancozeb alone, gave satisfactory control of the disease when applied in a 7-day schedule.     

Neue Ansätze zur Optimierung der Kraut- und Knollenfäulebekämpfung im ökologischen Kartoffelanbau

Potato late blight is still an unsolved problem in organic farming. Up to now the disease can only be controlled by copper fungicides. Our project is aiming to reduce the application of copper-containing pesticides by introduction of a blight forecasting system based on meteorological parameters. Primary stem infections should be reduced by seed treatment with copper fungicides thus to postpone the beginning of the blight epidemic as well as the start of spraying. To control secondary infections on the foliage, fungicide strategies should be elaborated to achieve best efficacy with reduced amounts of pesticides. Therefore copper amounts and spraying intervals should be adjusted to the infection pressure. Based on the biological and epidemiological conditions for primary and secondary infections with special emphasis on soil moisture, the potato blight forecast system ÖKO-SIMPHYT should be developed.     

Multi‐scale modelling of infection pressure from Phytophthora infestans*

Management of potato late blight could benefit from prediction of the risk posed to potato fields from external inoculum sources of Phytophthora infestans. Influx of inoculum depends on a complex interplay of population biological, atmospheric and spore survival processes, and is difficult to predict. This research aims at building tools for such prediction. BLIGHTSPACE is a spatio‐temporal model (parameterized for potato late blight) that has been developed and utilized to study the progress of epidemics in individual fields and networks of fields. A quasi‐Gaussian plume model was developed to provide long‐range transport of spores within BLIGHTSPACE. Numerical results compared favorably with experimental data. A further submodel for the survival of spores during long‐range transportation has been added. Integration of these three submodels will create an experimental arena for comparing control options for potato late blight.     

Spread risk of Eutypella canker of maple in Europe1

Eutypella canker of maple, caused by the pathogen Eutypella parasitica, has recently been reported for the first time in Europe. A rule‐based model of Eutypella parasitica spread risk in Europe is presented. This model incorporates the effects of spatial and temporal variability of multiple variables on pathogen spread and establishment. Model predictions are based on current knowledge of host susceptibility, pathogen reproduction and pathogen transmission, with particular regard to the host species’ distribution and climate suitability. Maps of host species’ distributions and monthly weather conditions were spatially analyzed in a Geographic Information System using the magnitude and direction of each variable's effect on disease spread. Spread risk predictions were computed for each month and averaged to generate a cumulative risk map. The model was calibrated using data on the natural distribution of Eutypella canker in North America. Extensive areas covering the natural distribution of maples in Europe are at considerable risk from the Eutypella parasitica infection. The most endangered regions are broad areas of the Balkans, the Apennines, France, Central and Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.     

Diversity of populations of Phytophthora infestans in relation to patterns of potato crop management in Latvia and Lithuania

Potato crop losses can be substantial when conditions for late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development and spread are favourable. In this study, drivers of differences between the P. infestans population structures in Latvia and Lithuania, two neighbouring countries with similar potato-growing traditions, were investigated. Genotypes of P. infestans and population genetic diversity were analysed using a 12-plex simple sequence repeat (SSR) marker assay. High genetic diversity was demonstrated in both populations, with population diversity being higher in Latvia. It would appear that local populations established from soilborne oospores early in the season are well adapted to the conditions in the region. However, somewhat greater spread and survival of local clones was detected in Lithuania, suggesting that potato cropping there is more vulnerable to clonal invasion than in Latvia. For effective disease management, current strategies should be adjusted according to the specific pathogen populations in the region, considering the reproduction and survival of the pathogen. Potato growers should implement late blight preventive measures such as longer field rotation to prevent oospore infections, especially in Latvia, and should use more disease resistant cultivars and high-quality seed potatoes.     

Integrated control of potato late blight: predicting the combined efficacy of host resistance and fungicides

Integrating cultivars that are partially resistant with reduced fungicide doses offers growers an opportunity to decrease fungicide input but still maintain disease control. To use integrated control strategies in practice requires a method to determine the combined effectiveness of particular cultivar and fungicide dose combinations. Simple models, such as additive dose models (ADM) and multiplicative survival models (MSM), have been used previously to determine the joint action of two or more pesticides. This study tests whether a model based on multiplicative survival principles can predict the joint action of fungicide doses combined with cultivars of differing partial host resistance. Data from eight field experiments on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) were used to test the model; the severity of foliar blight was assessed and scores used to calculate the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC). A subset of data, derived from the most susceptible cultivar, King Edward, was used to produce dose–response curves from which parameter values were estimated, quantifying fungicide efficacy. These values, along with the untreated values for the more resistant cultivars, Cara and Sarpo Mira, were used to predict the combined efficacy of the remaining cultivar by fungicide dose combinations. Predicted efficacy was compared against observations from an independent subset of treatments from the field experiments. The analysis demonstrated that multiplicative survival principles can be applied to describe the joint efficacy of host resistance and fungicide dose combinations.     

Forecasting of Fusarium head blight and deoxynivalenol content in winter wheat with FusaProg*

Fusarium head blight is one of the most serious cereal diseases of the world. Epidemics of Fusarium head blight can lead to a decline in grain quality and yield. In addition, grains often become contaminated with mycotoxins, which are harmful to humans and animals. In a field survey of winter wheat in Switzerland, Fusarium graminearum proved to be the most prevalent species responsible for head blight and deoxynivalenol the most common mycotoxin. To elucidate and quantify single or combined effects of cropping factors on F. graminearum infestation and to reduce the risk of mycotoxin contamination of wheat under conservation tillage, we developed the decision support system FusaProg. Our model takes into account the effects of cropping factors, previous crops, soil and straw management, as well as the F. graminearum susceptibility of the planted variety. These factors are used as driving variables and are combined with the prevailing weather conditions and growth stage in order to predict the deoxynivalenol content of a specific wheat plot before harvest. To use FusaProg as a threshold‐based tool to control F. graminearum with optimized timing of fungicide applications, forecasts of deoxynivalenol contents are conducted during the flowering period. FusaProg is an Internet‐based decision support system which not only provides information about the local and regional F. graminearum infection risks; it also forecasts plot‐specific deoxynivalenol contamination of winter wheat. In 2006, the system was evaluated by Swiss cantonal plant protection officers, and in 2007, the system will be made available to Swiss wheat producers.     

Spatiotemporal variation in airborne sporangia of Phytophthora infestans: characterization and initiatives towards improving potato late blight risk estimation

This study investigated the value of using real‐time monitoring of Phytophthora infestans airborne inoculum as a complement to decision support systems (DSS). The experiment was conducted during the 2010, 2011 and 2012 potato production seasons in two locations in New Brunswick, Canada. Airborne sporangia concentrations (ASC) of P. infestans were monitored using 16 rotating‐arm spore samplers placed 3 m above the ground. The first cases of late blight (2010 and 2011) were detected 6–7 days after the first ASC peak, and all samplers captured their first sporangia within the same week (at 3‐ and 9‐day periods). The cumulative ASC curve and the risk curves from two DSS (PLANT‐Plus and Pameseb Late Blight) had the same shape but different magnitudes. In both locations, the negative binomial distribution fitted the data better than the Poisson distribution, which is indicative of heterogeneity, and based on Taylor's power law, the heterogeneity increased with increasing ASC. Therefore, the present results suggest that spore‐sampling network devices may be a suitable approach for early detection of incoming inoculum and, when combined with DSS, represent a potential aid for targeting the optimal time to apply a disease‐control product. In this context, cumulative ASC can be a counterweight to the DSS risk estimate: a high risk combined with significant ASC will trigger fungicide spraying. Moreover, spore sampling can be used to assess the efficiency of management strategies by means of examining the area under the inoculum progress curve.     

DON content in oat grains in Norway related to weather conditions at different growth stages

High concentrations of the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON), produced by Fusarium graminearum have occurred frequently in Norwegian oats recently. Early prediction of DON levels is important for farmers, authorities and the Cereal Industry. In this study, the main weather factors influencing mycotoxin accumulation were identified and two models to predict the risk of DON in oat grains in Norway were developed: (1) as a warning system for farmers to decide if and when to treat with fungicide, and (2) for authorities and industry to use at harvest to identify potential food safety problems. Oat grain samples from farmers’ fields were collected together with weather data (2004–2013). A mathematical model was developed and used to estimate phenology windows of growth stages in oats (tillering, flowering etc.). Weather summarisations were then calculated within these windows, and the Spearman rank correlation factor calculated between DON-contamination in oats at harvest and the weather summarisations for each phenological window. DON contamination was most clearly associated with the weather conditions around flowering and close to harvest. Warm, rainy and humid weather during and around flowering increased the risk of DON accumulation in oats, as did dry periods during germination/seedling growth and tillering. Prior to harvest, warm and humid weather conditions followed by cool and dry conditions were associated with a decreased risk of DON accumulation. A prediction model, including only pre-flowering weather conditions, adequately forecasted risk of DON contamination in oat, and can aid in decisions about fungicide treatments.