Comment on "Phylogenetic MCMC algorithms are misleading on mixtures of trees"

Mossel and Vigoda (Reports, 30 September 2005, p. 2207) show that nearest neighbor interchange transitions, commonly used in phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perform poorly on mixtures of dissimilar trees. However, the conditions leading to their results are artificial. Standard MCMC convergence diagnostics would detect the problem in real data, and correction of the model misspecification would solve it.     

基于误差修正的电线覆冰厚度贝叶斯模型及分析

通过对已有的电线覆冰厚度数据进行分析，建立了电线覆冰厚度时间序列模型，对覆冰厚度进行贝叶斯统计推断，然后运用基于Gibbs抽样的MCMC方法对推断模型进行参数估计，并对MCMC模型进行误差修正.在此基础上，运用WINBUGS软件，对Gibbs抽样得到的预测结果与极大似然估计的预测结果进行比较.比较分析结果表明：通过误差修正的贝叶斯推断方法在电线覆冰厚度预测上具有更高的准确性.     

基于ARIMA模型的湘江流域DO和NH4+–N含量贝叶斯预测

为实时把控湘江流域水质的变化趋势,采用污染比较严重的湘江流域长沙段和益阳段水质指标溶解氧(DO)和氨氮(NH_4~+-N)含量的监测数据,用贝叶斯方法推断经典的ARIMA时间序列模型,并用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)模拟方法对DO和NH_4~+-N含量进行贝叶斯预测。结果表明,该模型的贝叶斯预测能实现对湘江流域长沙段和益阳段水质指标DO和NH_4~+-N含量的精确点预测、区间预测和概率预测。     

基于贝叶斯面板平滑转换模型的房价阈值效应研究

针对经济变量之间普遍存在的非线性关系,导致线性模型拟合失效的问题,构建面板数据平滑转换模型,刻画变量之间关系的非对称性。采用贝叶斯方法进行模型的参数估计,避免非线性最小二乘算法难以收敛,参数估计不确定。通过分析模型结构,选择参数先验分布,设计相应的Metropolis-Hasting-Gibbs混合抽样算法,据此估计模型参数;在此基础上,利用省域面板数据分析房价阈值效应问题。研究结果表明：参数的动态迭代轨迹收敛,MH-Gibbs混合抽样算法能够准确地估计模型各参数,解决了非线性最小二乘无法收敛的问题,证明了贝叶斯面板数据平滑转换模型的有效性;同时也验证了房价波动的阈值效应以及房价与城市化、城乡收入差距之间的非线性关系。     

Molecular Phylogenetic Analysis of the Main Lineages of Nymphalinae (Nymphalidae: Lepidoptera) Based on the Partial Mitochondrial COI Gene

The phylogenetic relationships of the subfamily Nymphalinae (sensu Chou 1994) were analyzed based on 1488bp of mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequence data obtained from 24 individuals, along with those of eight species obtained from GenBank. The base compositions of this COI fragment varied among the individuals as follows: T 39.9%, C 14.6%, A 32.2%, and G 13.4%, with a strong AT bias (72.1%), as usually found in insect mitochondrial genomes. The A T contents of the third, second, and first codon positions of the COI fragments in this study was 92.4, 62.2, and 61.4%, respectively. The phylogenetic trees were reconstructed by neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayesian methods by using Byblia anvatara as outgroup. Phylogenetic analyses based on the COI gene sequence data created very similar topologies, which were producing trees with two main clades A and B, and five subclades. The data indicated that the tribes Nymphalini and Hypolimni (sensu Chou 1994) are not monophyletic groups, and the genus Junonia should be removed from Nymphalini to Hypolimni (=Junoniini). On the basis of the data, the Symbrenthia and Araschnia had a relative distant relationship with the rest of Nymphalini. The relationships of species in the Nymphalini were confirmed via the NJ, ML, and Bayesian methods, namely ((((Nymphalis Kaniska) Polygonia) Aglais) Vanessa) (Symbrenthia Araschnia). This investigation provides a little novel information for Chinese researches of butterflies.     

黑石顶自然保护区巨蚓科蚯蚓系统发育分析

巨蚓科蚯蚓是我国的主要蚯蚓类群,运用分子系统学方法研究其系统发育具有重要价值。本研究采用测定的线粒体COI、12S与16S基因序列,分析其序列特征,构建了广东黑石顶自然保护区的巨蚓科蚯蚓的最大似然树与贝叶斯树,确定该区域物种间的分子系统发育关系,明确远盲蚓属与腔蚓属均非单系群。研究还基于松散分子钟估算了不同物种之间的分化时间。该保护区的巨蚓科祖先进行物种分化起于始新世中期[42.88百万年前(Ma)],其腔蚓属蚯蚓约起源于中新世前期。     

Molecular Phylogenetic Analysis of the Main Lineages of Nymphalinae （Nymphalidae： Lepidoptera） Based on the Partial Mitochondrial COI Gene

The phylogenetic relationships of the subfamily Nymphalinae （sensu Chou 1994） were analyzed based on 1 488 bp of mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I （COI） gene sequence data obtained from 24 individuals, along with those of eight species obtained from GenBank. The base compositions of this COI fragment varied among the individuals as follows： T 39.9%, C 14.6%, A 32.2%, and G 13.4%, with a strong AT bias （72.1%）, as usually found in insect mitochondrial genomes. The A ＋T contents of the third, second, and first codon positions of the COI fragments in this study was 92.4, 62.2, and 61.4%, respectively. The phylogenetic trees were reconstructed by neighbor-joining （NJ）, maximum likelihood （ML）, and Bayesian methods by using Byblia anvatara as outgroup. Phylogenetic analyses based on the COI gene sequence data created very similar topologies, which were producing trees with two main clades A and B, and five subclades. The data indicated that the tribes Nymphalini and Hypolimni （sensu Chou 1994） are not monophyletic groups, and the genus Junonia should be removed from Nymphalini to Hypolimni （=Junoniini）. On the basis of the data, the Symbrenthia and Araschnia had a relative distant relationship with the rest of Nymphalini. The relationships of species in the Nymphalini were confirmed via the NJ, ML, and Bayesian methods, namely （（（（Nymphalis ＋ Kaniska） ＋ Polygonia） ＋Aglais） ＋ Vanessa） ＋ （Symbrenthia ＋Araschnia）. This investigation provides a little novel information for Chinese researches of butterflies.     

基于SSR标记和单拷贝核基因的蔷薇属植物系统发生分析

目的通过深入分析中国产野生蔷薇属植物的遗传背景，为其品种演化、系统分类提供分子学依据，也为种间杂交亲本的选择提供一定的指导，从而为进一步开发我国丰富的野生蔷薇属植物资源提供理论基础。方法本研究以50份蔷薇属植物样本、42个种或品种为研究对象，运用SSR标记及单拷贝核基因GAPDH对其遗传多样性进行分析。利用MAC-PR理论预测不同倍性蔷薇属植物的SSR基因型。结果在29个SSR位点上共计检测出382个等位基因变异，多态性信息含量介于0.413 9至0.934 0之间，平均值为0.798 9。计算Bruvo遗传距离并构建了邻接树，解决了SSR标记在不同倍性样本之间应用困难的问题。同时基于GAPDH基因序列片段构建了50个样本的贝叶斯树。基于SSR标记构建的系统发生树显示，50个样本聚成了6个分类群，月季组、桂味组样本聚类效果较好，而其他种类与现有分类系统差异较大。通过测序及克隆成功获得了所有样本的GAPDH基因序列片段，其中，比对后的序列长度为841 bp，变异位点数164个；基于GAPDH基因的聚类结果与现有的分类系统也有较大的差异。结论蔷薇属植物基于遗传关系的分类体系与现有的植物学分类系统有较大的差别。月季组、合柱组间遗传关系十分紧密；芹叶组、桂味组没有形成单系类群，这两组间可能存在着基因交流事件；小叶组中两个种没有很近的亲缘关系。      

中国马铃薯Y病毒的检测鉴定及CP基因的分子变异

【目的】查明马铃薯Y病毒（Potato virus Y,PVY）病在中国的发生情况,及时、准确地鉴定出PVY并对其分子变异进行分析。【方法】采用ELISA 方法对采自中国14个省（直辖市）马铃薯种植区疑似受PVY感染的样品进行了检测,并对其中的部分材料镜检验证,然后根据CP基因序列设计1对简并引物针对随机选择感染PVY的14个省（直辖市）代表样品进行CP基因扩增克隆,将测序得到的序列进行分子变异分析,并使用贝叶斯法（Bayesian inference,BI）重建系统发育关系。【结果】ELISA检测结果表明,691份样品中220个样品与PVY抗体呈阳性反应,其余呈阴性反应;ELISA检测的阳性材料在透射电镜下均可观察到明显的风轮状内含体,14个PVY分离物均成功扩增出预期大小（约800 bp）的特异性片段,CP基因的核苷酸序列与已报道PVY不同株系的核苷酸序列一致性均在88%以上;在14个PVY分离物CP基因中共发现有29个多态性位点,其中6个简约信息位点,23个单一变异位点。系统发育分析结果显示,14个PVY分离物与PVYN:O株系相聚成簇,表明其在系统发育关系上,与PVYN:O株系的亲缘关系最近。【结论】PVY CP基因高度保守,但不同地区分离物也存在一定的分子变异,本研究可为今后了解PVY病毒病流行、变异趋势及其防治提供依据。     

20种溪蟹线粒体COI基因比较分析及系统发育研究

【目的】比较分析20种溪蟹的线粒体COI基因序列,并基于COI基因序列构建溪蟹科系统发育进化树分析不同种类间的亲缘关系,探究COI基因作为分子标记在溪蟹物种鉴定中的适用性,同时为溪蟹科的物种鉴定及系统发育研究提供理论依据。【方法】测定2种龙溪蟹属（Longpotamon）代表种的线粒体COI基因全序列,结合GenBank中已公布的18种溪蟹科COI基因全序列,利用MEGA X计算其碱基组成、保守位点和遗传距离,采用MatGAT 2.02进行多序列相似性比较分析,并以PhyloSuite构建贝叶斯树（BI）和最大似然树（ML）,探究溪蟹科物种内部的亲缘关系。【结果】20种溪蟹的COI基因序列全长1534~1539 bp,连续编码511~512个氨基酸残基,所有物种均以ATG为起始密码子;碱基含量略有不同,分别为35.9%~40.7%（T）、16.4%~20.2%（C）、26.8%~28.9%（A）和14.7%~17.2%（G）,呈明显的AT偏向性。COI基因核苷酸序列及其推导氨基酸序列比较分析结果显示分别有577和98个变异位点,表明密码子存在简并性。20种溪蟹的线粒体COI基因遗传距离、序列相似性及系统发育进化分析结果均显示,长安龙溪蟹（Longpotamon changanense）与龙溪蟹未定种（Longpotamon sp.）的亲缘关系最近。虽然采用不同方法基于不同数据集构建的系统发育进化树在拓扑结构上有所不同,但所有树型均显示龙溪蟹属（Longpotamon）的小龙溪蟹（L.parvum）并未与该属其他物种聚类在一起,华溪蟹属（Sinolapotamon）、近溪蟹属（Potamiscus）和小石蟹属（Tenuilapotamon）物种也散布在系统发育进化树不同分支中,暗示这些物种在分类鉴定上为非单系群,还需进一步研究确定。【结论】20种溪蟹的线粒体COI基因序列平均种间遗传距离为0.173,均具有区别于其他种类的特异位点,即线粒体COI基因序列可作为溪蟹科物种鉴定的分子标记。     

沥青路面预养护方法多属性灰色模糊决策

确切的操作风险损失分布保障了风险度量的准确性。对银行操作风险损失数据的分析,国外学者一致认为操作风险分布近似泊松分布或负的贝奴里分布。基于中国商业银行1994~2008年的操作风险损失数据,通过对操作风险损失分布的检验、贝叶斯马尔科夫蒙特卡洛频率分析,发现中国商业银行操作风险损失分布近似服从广义极值分布（Generalized Extreme Value）。     

基于COI条形码的根口水母科Rhizostomatidae水母分子系统进化研究

为探讨DNA条形码基因COI序列在根口水母科Rhizostomatidae水母物种鉴定中的有效性,分析了根口水母科3属6种水母及口冠水母科1属1种共计265条线粒体COI基因同源序列,利用MEGA 3.0计算根口水母科种内与种间的遗传距离,并基于邻接法(Neibour-Joining,NJ)、最大似然法(Maximum Likelihood,ML)和贝叶斯法(Bayesian,BI)构建了其分子系统进化树。结果表明:4个属7种水母种类COI基因同源序列长度为482 bp,种间遗传距离为0.065~0.235,平均遗传距离为0.198,种内遗传距离为0~0.032,平均为0.006,其中种间平均遗传距离(0.198)显著大于种内平均遗传距离(0.006),种间遗传距离是种内遗传距离的33倍;根口水母科水母种间遗传距离均大于Hebert推荐区分物种的最小种间遗传距离(0.02);采用NJ法、ML法和BI法构建的分子系统树拓扑结构基本一致,同一物种不同个体间均能聚成独立的单系群,表明COI基因可作为根口水母科水母种类准确鉴定的有效条形码基因;系统进化树显示,海蜇属为单系群,系统进化分析结果与形态分类学的观点并不十分一致。研究表明,COI基因序列在根口水母科不同阶元间变异较大,适合于根口水母科水母种类鉴定及群体水平的分子标记。     

Cytb、12SrRNA基因进化速度对构建系统进化树的影响

[目的]论证线粒体Cytb和12SrRNA基因不同进化速率影响构建的系统树拓扑结构。[方法]从GenBank下载了蛇亚目12科15种蛇线粒体全序列,提取Cytb和12SrRNA基因序列,选用GTR＋I＋G核苷酸替代模型,基于最大似然法,用PAUP4.0软件分别构建2个基因的系统关系树。[结果]在选用相同的软件、建树方法和研究物种的情况下,构建的系统树拓扑结构差异主要是因为线粒体Cytb和12SrRNA基因进化速率不同产生的。[结论]在分子系统进化研究中,要针对不同的研究物种和研究目的,选择合适的基因构建系统进化树。     

境外对公职人员收受礼品行为的规制及其启示

鉴于美式期权的定价具有后向迭代搜索特征,本文结合Longstaff和Schwartz提出的美式期权定价的最小二乘模拟方法,研究基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛算法对回归方程系数的估计,实现对美式期权的双重模拟定价.通过对无红利美式看跌股票期权定价进行大量实证模拟,从期权价值定价误差等方面同著名的最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行对比分析,结果表明基于MCMC回归算法给出的美式期权定价具有更高的精确度.模拟实证结果表明本文提出的对美式期权定价方法具有较好的可行性、有效性与广泛的适用性.该方法的不足之处就是类似于一般的蒙特卡洛方法,会使得求解的计算量有所加大.     

Molecular Phylogeny of the ＂True Citrus Fruit Trees＂ Group （Aurantioideae,Rutaceae） as Inferred from Chloroplast DNA Sequence

The genus Citrus L.has a long controversial taxonomy history,and a well-resolved molecular phylogeny of the "true citrus fruit trees" group in the future will provide new information for advancing breeding techniques and developing better conservation strategies.In the present study,three cpDNA fragments(TrnL-TrnF,PsbH-PetB,and TrnS-TrnG)of 30 genotypes chosen from the six genera of the "true citrus fruit trees" group were analyzed.A molecular phylogenetic tree of the "true citrus fruit trees" group was reconstructed based on plastid DNA sequences.The results confirmed that the "true citrus fruit trees" group was monophyletic,and thereby the group was divided into genera as previously suggested based on morphological characters.The cpDNA data also suggested that Poncirus might be the first genus separated from the other five genera in the group.The genus Fortunella were of hybrid origin and Citrus might be as its putative paternal parent.The genera Microcitrus,Eremocitrus,and Clymenia were possibly monophyletic and their common ancestor might branch out from Citrus.Furthermore,the phylogenetic relationships within the Citrus genus were discussed.     

家蚕分子系统学研究之中外群的作用与影响

以33个家蚕品种、10个不同导区的野桑蚕、5个柞蚕品种AFLP分子数据为例,分析探讨了家蚕分子系统学研究中外群对构建系统发生树的作用与影响。结果表明：⑴不同的构树方法中外群的作用是不同的;⑵同一构树方法研究,因外群规模不同对构建的系统发生树有较大影响,而不同规模的复合外群所构建得系统发生树几乎没有差异;⑶以亲缘关系不同对野桑蚕和柞蚕作外群对照,在对照规模相同（或相近）时,其两种外群对系统发生树的重建几乎没有影响。     

Phylogenetic signal in the eukaryotic tree of life

Molecular sequence data have been sampled from 10% of all species known to science. Although it is not yet feasible to assemble these data into a single phylogenetic tree of life, it is possible to quantify how much phylogenetic signal is present. Analysis of 14,289 phylogenies built from 2.6 million sequences in GenBank suggests that signal is strong in vertebrates and specific groups of nonvertebrate model organisms. Across eukaryotes, however, although phylogenetic evidence is very broadly distributed, for the average species in the database it is equivalent to less than one well-supported gene tree. This analysis shows that a stronger sampling effort aimed at genomic depth, in addition to taxonomic breadth, will be required to build high-resolution phylogenetic trees at this scale.     

福建黄兔线粒体基因组全序列测定与分析

福建黄兔是中国优良的小型兼用品种，从线粒体水平分析福建黄兔在兔形目动物中的系统发育地位，对探究其起源、进化和种群分类具有重要意义。利用PCR高保真扩增技术和生物信息学软件对福建黄兔线粒体基因组进行获取、拼接与注释。结果发现福建黄兔线粒体基因组全长17 000 bp(Genbank No.MN518689)，主要包括tRNA基因（22个）、rRNA基因（2个）、蛋白编码基因（13个）和控制区（1个）4 部分，基因排列紧密。除控制区，共存在37个编码基因，有9个基因由轻链（L链）编码，其余28个编码基因均由重链（H链）编码。22个tRNA基因中，除 tRNA-Ser(AGY)基因由于缺失DHU臂不能形成三叶草结构外，其余21种tRNA基因均可折叠形成经典的三叶草结构。控制区含有3种结构域：延长终止序列区（ETAS1和ETAS2）、中央保守区、保守序列区（CSB1、CSB2和CSB3），其中，CSB1和CSB2间存在200 bp的短重复序列，CSB3和tRNA-Phe间存在306 bp的长重复序列。基于线粒体基因组控制区序列构建10 种兔形目动物的系统进化树，结果表明福建黄兔起源于穴兔，支持将福建黄兔划归为穴兔属。     

Inferential structure determination

Macromolecular structures calculated from nuclear magnetic resonance data are not fully determined by experimental data but depend on subjective choices in data treatment and parameter settings. This makes it difficult to objectively judge the precision of the structures. We used Bayesian inference to derive a probability distribution that represents the unknown structure and its precision. This probability distribution also determines additional unknowns, such as theory parameters, that previously had to be chosen empirically. We implemented this approach by using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Our method provides an objective figure of merit and improves structural quality.     

Gene trees and the origins of inbred strains of mice

Extensive data on genetic divergence among 24 inbred strains of mice provide an opportunity to examine the concordance of gene trees and species trees, especially whether structured subsamples of loci give congruent estimates of phylogenetic relationships. Phylogenetic analyses of 144 separate loci reproduce almost exactly the known genealogical relationships among these 24 strains. Partitioning these loci into structured subsets representing loci coding for proteins, the immune system and endogenous viruses give incongruent phylogenetic results. The gene tree based on protein loci provides an accurate picture of the genealogical relationships among strains; however, gene trees based upon immune and viral data show significant deviations from known genealogical affinities.