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1.

Context

Animal movements are inherently linked to landscape structure. Understanding this relationship for highly-mobile species requires documenting their responses to spatiotemporal variability of resources. To that end, characterizing movement behaviors and resource distributions using the principles of habitat connectivity facilitates coordinated landscape planning efforts within highly modified landscapes.

Objectives and methods

We tracked locations and movements for 156 dunlin (Calidris alpina) and 109 long-billed dowitchers (Limnodromus scolopaceus) overwintering in two regions with distinct water distributions in California’s Central Valley. We then compared residency rates, functional connectivity to other regions, and associations between movement distances and average habitat availability and structural connectivity of habitat at multiple temporal and spatial scales.

Results

A widespread yet highly variable regional water distribution was associated with lower residency rates and substantially higher functional connectivity to nearby regions when compared to a stable regional water distribution characterized by a large, contiguous wetland complex. Longer movements were associated with decreasing average availability and spatial aggregation of surface water. Movement models suggested shorebirds primarily responded to habitat availability at smaller scales (<?10 km) and structural connectivity at larger scales (≥?10 km).

Conclusions

Differences in movement behaviors suggested that wintering shorebirds will avoid long distance movements and remain resident within a wetland region when possible. Conservation and management efforts should reliably flood individual wetlands and agricultural lands from November to April and prioritize locations that maximize structural wetland connectivity and limit spatiotemporal variability of surface water throughout the Central Valley.
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2.

Context

The Rainwater Basin region in south-central Nebraska supports a complex network of spatially-isolated wetlands that harbor diverse floral and faunal communities. Since European settlement, many wetlands have been lost from the network, which has increased distances among remaining wetlands. As a result, populations of wildlife species with limited dispersal capabilities may have become isolated and face greater local extinction risks.

Objectives

We compared the pre-European settlement and current extent of the Rainwater Basin network to assess the effects of wetland losses on network connectivity for a range of maximum dispersal distances.

Methods

We constructed network models for a range of maximum dispersal distances and calculated network metrics to assess changes in network connectivity and the relative importance of individual wetlands in regulating flow.

Results

Since European settlement, the number of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin has decreased by?>?90%. The average distance to the nearest neighboring wetland has increased by 150% to ~?1.2 km, and the dispersal distance necessary to travel throughout the whole network has increased from 3.5 to 10.0 km. Last, relative importance of individual wetlands depended on the maximum dispersal distance. Which wetlands to preserve to maintain connectivity might therefore depend on the dispersal capabilities of the species or taxa of interest.

Conclusions

To preserve a broad range of biodiversity, conservation efforts should focus on preserving dense clusters of wetlands at fine spatial scales to maintain current levels of network connectivity, and restoring connections between clusters to facilitate long-range dispersal of species with limited dispersal capabilities.
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3.

Context

Playa wetlands are the primary habitat for numerous wetland-dependent species in the Southern Great Plains of North America. Plant and wildlife populations that inhabit these wetlands are reciprocally linked through the dispersal of individuals, propagules and ultimately genes among local populations.

Objective

To develop and implement a framework using network models for conceptualizing, representing and analyzing potential biological flows among 48,981 spatially discrete playa wetlands in the Southern Great Plains.

Methods

We examined changes in connectivity patterns and assessed the relative importance of wetlands to maintaining these patterns by targeting wetlands for removal based on network centrality metrics weighted by estimates of habitat quality and probability of inundation.

Results

We identified several distinct, broad-scale sub networks and phase transitions among playa wetlands in the Southern Plains. In particular, for organisms that can disperse >2 km a dense and expansive wetland sub network emerges in the Southern High Plains. This network was characterized by localized, densely connected wetland clusters at link distances (h) >2 km but <5 km and was most sensitive to changes in wetland availability (p) and configuration when h = 4 km, and p = 0.2–0.4. It transitioned to a single, large connected wetland system at broader spatial scales even when the proportion of inundated wetland was relatively low (p = 0.2).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that redundancy in the potential for broad and fine-scale movements insulates this system from damage and facilitates system-wide connectivity among populations with different dispersal capacities.
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4.

Context

Amphibian metapopulations have become increasingly fragmented in the Midwestern United States, with wetland-breeding salamanders being especially dependent on intact, high-quality forested landscapes. However, the degree to which amphibian populations are isolated, the factors that influence dispersal and, ultimately, functional connectivity remain areas in need of investigation.

Objectives and methods

We combined population demographic and genetic approaches to assess how a landscape fragmented by agriculture influences functional connectivity and metapopulation dynamics of a locally threatened salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum).

Results

We found that the allelic richness and heterozygosity of this species was significantly related to the level of connectivity with other occupied breeding wetlands and that decreased connectivity resulted in increased genetic differentiation. We also found that effective population size appears to be declining and, while correlative, our focal landscape has experienced significant losses of forested upland habitats and potential wetland breeding habitats over the last 200 years.

Conclusions

By combining population and landscape genetic analyses with an assessment of regional wetland occupancy, our study has uniquely synthesized genetic and metapopulation processes, while also incorporating the effects of the landscape matrix on dispersal, connectivity, and population differentiation. The significant relationship between connectivity with heterozygosity, allelic richness, and genetic divergence observed in this study reinforces empirical observations of long distance dispersal and movements in ambystomatid salamanders. However, our results show that protection of core habitat around isolated wetlands may not sufficiently minimize genetic differentiation among populations and preserve critical genetic diversity that may be essential for the long-term persistence of local populations.
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5.

Context

Primates are an important component of biodiversity in tropical regions. However, many studies on the effects of habitat change on primates ignore the relative influence of landscape composition and configuration.

Objectives

This study addresses the question: how important are landscape-scale forest area and composition relative to patch-scale (1–1080 ha) and site-scale (transect of 1 km) habitat variables for the occupancy and abundance of four primate species in the Colombian Llanos.

Methods

Using a randomly stratified survey design, 81 fragments were surveyed for primate occupancy and abundance. We used zero-inflated models to test the relative influence of landscape-scale, patch-scale and site-scale variables on occupancy and abundance for each species. A 95% confidence set of models was constructed using the cumulative Akaike weight for each model and the relative importance of each set of variables calculated for each primate species.

Results

Occupancy was determined by a combination of site-scale, patch-scale and landscape-scale variables but this varied substantially among the primate species.

Conclusion

Our study highlights the importance of managing primates at a range of scales that considers the relative importance of site-, patch- and landscape-scale variables.
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6.

Context

Hoverflies are often used as bio-indicators for ecosystem conservation, but only few studies have actually investigated the key factors explaining their richness in woodlands.

Objectives

In a fragmented landscape in southwest France, we investigated the joint effects of woodland area, structural heterogeneity, connectivity and history on the species richness of forest-specialist hoverflies, and whether there was a time lag in the response of hoverflies to habitat changes, and tested the effect of spatiotemporal changes.

Methods

Current species richness was sampled in 48 woodlands using 99 Malaise traps. Structural variables were derived from a rapid habitat assessment protocol. Old maps and aerial photographs were used to extract past and present spatial patterns of the woodlands since 1850. Relationships between species richness and explanatory variables were explored using generalized linear models.

Results

We show that current habitat area, connectivity, historical continuity and the average density of tree-microhabitats explained 35 % of variation in species richness. Species richness was affected differently by changes in patch area between 1979 and 2010, depending on woodland connectivity. In isolated woodlands, extinction debt and colonization credit were revealed, showing that even several decades are not sufficient for hoverflies to adapt to landscape-scale habitat conditions.

Conclusions

These findings emphasise the importance of maintaining connectedness between woodlands, which facilitates the dispersion in a changing landscape. Our results also highlight the benefits of using a change-oriented approach to explain the current distribution patterns of species, especially when several spatial processes act jointly.
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7.

Context

Habitat loss and habitat fragmentation negatively affect amphibian populations. Roads impact amphibian species through barrier effects and traffic mortality. The landscape variable ‘accessible habitat’ considers the combined effects of habitat loss and roads on populations.

Objectives

The aim was to test whether accessible habitat was a better predictor of amphibian species richness than separate measures of road effects and habitat loss. I assessed how accessible habitat and local habitat variables determine species richness and community composition.

Methods

Frog and tadpole surveys were conducted at 52 wetlands in a peri-urban area of eastern Australia. Accessible habitat was delineated using a highway. Regressions were used to examine relationships between species richness and eleven landscape and local habitat variables. Redundancy analysis was used to examine relationships between community composition and accessible habitat and local habitat variables.

Results

Best-ranked models of species richness included both landscape and local habitat variables. There were positive relationships between species richness and accessible habitat and distance to the highway, and uncertain relationships with proportion cover of native vegetation and road density. There were negative relationships between species richness and concreted wetlands and wetland electrical conductivity. Four species were positively associated with accessible habitat, whereas all species were negatively associated with wetland type.

Conclusions

Barrier effects caused by the highway and habitat loss have negatively affected the amphibian community. Local habitat variables had strong relationships with species richness and community composition, highlighting the importance of both availability and quality of habitat for amphibian conservation near major roads.
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8.

Context

The analysis of individual movement choices can be used to better understand population-level resource selection and inform management.

Objectives

We investigated movements and habitat selection of 13 bobcats in Vermont, USA, under the assumption individuals makes choices based upon their current location. Results were used to identify “movement-defined” corridors.

Methods

We used GPS-collars and GIS to estimate bobcat movement paths, and extracted statistics on land cover proportions, topography, fine-scale vegetation, roads, and streams within “used” and “available” space surrounding each movement path. Compositional analyses were used to determine habitat preferences with respect to landcover and topography; ratio tests were used to determine if used versus available ratios for vegetation, roads, and streams differed from 1. Results were used to create travel cost maps, a primary input for corridor analysis.

Results

Forested and scrub-rock land cover were most preferred for movement, while developed land cover was least preferred. Preference depended on the composition of the “available” landscape: Bobcats moved?>?3 times more quickly through forest and scrub-rock habitat when these habitats were surrounded by agriculture or development than when the available buffer was similarly composed. Overall, forest edge, wetland edge and higher stream densities were selected, while deep forest core and high road densities were not selected. Landscape-scale connectivity maps differed depending on whether habitat suitability, preference, or selection informed the travel cost map.

Conclusions

Both local and landscape scale land cover characteristics affect habitat preferences and travel speed of bobcats, which in turn can inform management and conservation activities.
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9.

Context

Protecting wetlands in cities is challenging. A cost-effective spatial prioritization approach taking into account stakeholder motivations is needed to identify wetlands of conservation interest.

Objectives

This study aims to optimize the efficiency of a systematic conservation planning (SCP) approach to protect nine urban wetland ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity.

Methods

First, we mapped ES supply and demand to capture their spatial variation as they occur at the wetland scale. Secondly, using wetland property value as cost data, we compared the efficiency of SCP to two multicriteria scoring approaches. Thirdly, we compared SCP alternatives by changing the planning unit scale and conservation objectives (i.e. emphasizing ES demand and focusing on the most important ES).

Results

The total cost of the scoring approach networks was minimally 13 times higher, when compared to the SCP approaches. Consequently, the scoring approaches were at least five times less efficient than SCP per unit of network area ($/m2). Decreasing the size of planning units resulted in further cost reduction, with networks that were up to 92% less costly. We also highlighted that beneficiary demand fulfillment in networks could be optimized without a loss in efficiency. Finally, SCP secured nine ES for the same expenditure as that required to protect four public safety related ES. However, planning solely for these four important ES failed to represent those of other ES.

Conclusions

Our results may provide a tool to better inform land use decision planning in order to mitigate the impacts of urban growth on ES.
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10.

Context

The roosting habits of many temperate zone bats are well documented at microhabitat scales, but fewer studies have included multi-scale assessments of landscape patterns in bat roost site selection.

Objectives

To identify and assess at the landscape-scale the location of spring and early season maternity roosts of female northern long-eared bats (Myotis septentrionalis) from 2015 to 2016 at Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky, USA.

Methods

We used mist-nets and radiotelemetry to catch and track bats to roost trees across the landscape of MACA. Data on roosting sites were evaluated using spatial point pattern analysis to examine distributional trends of roosts. A variety of spatial covariates were used to model the effect of landscape pattern, including: forest type, elevation, and proximity to hibernacula, water, and road corridors.

Results

Data indicate that roost locations of female northern long-eared bats in MACA were typically situated within 2000 m of known winter hibernacula, occurring more often at higher elevations in mesic upland deciduous forests, and in close proximity to water sources and roads. We present hypotheses to account for the patterns observed in relation to landscape features and habitat resources in the Park.

Conclusions

Our data indicate that a more comprehensive understanding of habitat requirements which includes empirically-based, landscape-scale patterns, and not solely considerations at stand or local levels, could lead to better informed management policies targeting conservation of maternity habitat of forest-dwelling bats, including the northern long-eared bat, a species in decline throughout much of its distribution in North America.
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11.

Context

Landscape-scale population dynamics are driven in part by movement within and dispersal among habitat patches. Predicting these processes requires information about how movement behavior varies among land cover types.

Objectives

We investigated how butterfly movement in a heterogeneous landscape varies within and between habitat and matrix land cover types, and the implications of these differences for within-patch residence times and among-patch connectivity.

Methods

We empirically measured movement behavior in the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton) in three land cover classes that broadly constitute habitat and two classes that constitute matrix. We also measured habitat preference at boundaries. We predicted patch residence times and interpatch dispersal using movement parameters estimated separately for each habitat and matrix land cover subclass (5 categories), or for combined habitat and combined matrix land cover classes (2 categories). We evaluated the effects of including edge behavior on all metrics.

Results

Overall, movement was slower within habitat land cover types, and faster in matrix cover types. Butterflies at forest edges were biased to remain in open areas, and connectivity and patch residence times were most affected by behavior at structural edges. Differences in movement between matrix subclasses had a greater effect on predictions about connectivity than differences between habitat subclasses. Differences in movement among habitat subclasses had a greater effect on residence times.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the importance of careful classification of movement and land cover in heterogeneous landscapes, and reveal how subtle differences in behavioral responses to land cover can affect landscape-scale outcomes.
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12.

Context

Management of wintering waterfowl in North America requires adaptability because constant landscape and environmental change challenges existing management strategies regarding waterfowl habitat use at large spatial scales. Migratory waterfowl including mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) use the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) for wintering habitat, making this an important area of emphasis for improving wetland conservation strategies, while enhancing the understanding of landscape-use patterns.

Objectives

We used aerial survey data collected in the Arkansas portion of the MAV (ARMAV) to explain the abundance and distribution of mallards in relation to variable landscape conditions.

Methods

We used two-stage, hierarchical spatio-temporal models with a random spatial effect to identify covariates related to changes in mallard abundance and distribution within and among years.

Results

We found distinct spatio-temporal patterns existed for mallard distributions across the ARMAV and these distributions are dependent on the surrounding landscape structure and changing environmental conditions. Models performing best indicated seasonal surface water extent, rice field, wetland and fallow (uncultivated) fields positively influenced mallard presence. Rice fields, surface water and weather were found to influence mallard abundance. Additionally, the results suggest weather and changing surface water affects mallard presence and abundance throughout the winter.

Conclusions

Using novel datasets to identify which environmental factors drive changes in regional wildlife distribution and abundance can improve management by providing managers additional information to manage land over landscapes spanning private and public lands. We suggest our analytical approach may be informative in other areas and for other wildlife species.
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13.

Context

Forest landscape models (FLMs) are important tools for simulating forest changes over broad spatial and temporal scales. The ability of FLMs to accurately predict forest changes may be significantly influenced by the formulations of site-scale processes including seedling establishment, tree growth, competition, and mortality.

Objective

The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of site-scale processes and interaction effects of site-scale processes and harvest on landscape-scale forest change predictions.

Methods

We compared the differences in species’ distribution (quantified by species’ percent area), total aboveground biomass, and species’ biomass derived from two FLMs: (1) a model that explicitly incorporates stand density and size for each species age cohort (LANDIS PRO), and (2) a model that explicitly tracks biomass for each species age cohort (LANDIS-II with biomass succession extension), which are variants from the LANDIS FLM family with different formulations of site-scale processes.

Results

For early successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were small (mostly less than 5 %). For mid- to late-successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were relatively large (10–30 %). The differences in species’ biomass predictions were generally larger than those for species’ distribution predictions. Harvest mediated the differences on landscape-scale predictions.

Conclusions

The effects of site-scale processes on landscape-scale forest change predictions are dependent on species’ ecological traits such as shade tolerance, seed dispersal, and growth rates.
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14.

Context

Land-use change can reduce and isolate suitable habitat generating spatial variation in resource availability. Improving species distribution models requires a multi-scale understanding of resource requirements and species’ sensitivities to novel landscapes.

Objectives

We investigated how the spatial distribution of supplementary habitats (permanent wetlands), urbanization, water depths, and distribution of a key prey species (muskrat; Ondatra zibethicus) influence occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison). Although mink are widespread across North America and a destructive invasive species in Europe, South America, and Asia, we have a limited understanding of factors affecting their spatial distribution.

Methods

We used 6 years of presence–absence data (2007–2012) to evaluate occupancy dynamics of mink at 58–90 stream sites along an urbanization gradient in Illinois, USA. We predicted negative relationships between stream occupancy and urban land cover and distance from permanent wetlands, and positive associations with muskrat presence, water depth, and riparian zone width.

Results

Contrary to our hypothesis, stream sites closer to permanent wetlands had lower occupancy and colonization rates for mink. Occupancy and colonization rates were higher at sites with deeper water, and colonization rates were related negatively to urbanization. Mink were more likely to leave stream habitat if muskrats were not present and permanent wetlands were nearby.

Conclusion

Factors interplaying across multiple scales influenced occupancy dynamics of mink in stream habitat in a highly modified landscape. Our results highlight the importance of considering both direct measures of prey availability and the spatial distribution of supplementary habitats to improve habitat-selection models for carnivores.
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15.

Context

Mosquito-borne diseases in the United States are notorious for their seemingly erratic temporal and spatial outbreak patterns in humans. Identifying linkages between fine-scale phenomenon and macroscale outbreak patterns can improve the understanding of these complex socio–ecological systems.

Objectives

Using West Nile virus (WNV) as a model system, we examine whether fine-scale wetland characteristics—wetland size, connectivity, and inundation regime—have an important effect on macroscale human disease outbreak in the northeastern and midwestern United States.

Methods

We take a spatially explicit GIS-based approach, derive new macroscale wetland metrics based on fine-scale wetland characteristics, and use county-level annual human WNV incidence data over 11 years to evaluate linkages between the fine and macroscales (1.6 million km2).

Results

In regions dominated by the Culex tarsalis WNV vector, U.S. counties with a small average wetland size had more than 100 % higher human WNV incidence than counties with a large average wetland size. In regions dominated by the Cx. pipiens and Cx. restuans vectors, a low proportional area of connected wetland was associated with at least 50 % higher human WNV incidence than a high proportional area of connected wetland. Finally, Cx. tarsalis-dominated counties with a high proportional area of semi-permanent wetland that were experiencing drought conditions had over 300 % higher annual WNV incidence than drought-affected counties with a low proportional area of semi-permanent wetland.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that phenomena occurring at the individual wetland scale may aggregate to influence macroscale human WNV outbreak patterns and may be mediated by the interplay of other factors such as vector species-specific traits and climate.
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16.

Context

Invasive Burmese pythons are altering the ecology of southern Florida and their distribution is expanding northward. Understanding their habitat use is an important step in understanding the pathways of the invasion.

Objectives

This study identifies key landscape variables in predicting relative habitat suitability for pythons at the present stage of invasion through presence-only ecological niche modeling using geographical sampling bias correction.

Methods

We used 2014 presence-only observations from the EDDMapS database and three landscape variables to model habitat suitability: fine-scale land cover, home range-level land cover, and distance to open freshwater or wetland. Ten geographical sampling bias correction scenarios based on road presence and sampling effort were evaluated to improve the efficacy of modeling.

Results

The best performing models treated road presence as a binary factor rather than a continuous decrease in sampling effort with distance from roads. Home range-level cover contributed the most to the final prediction, followed by proximity to water and fine-scale land cover. Estuarine habitat and freshwater wetlands were the most important variables to contribute to python habitat suitability at both the home range-level and fine-scale. Suitability was highest within 30 m of open freshwater and wetlands.

Conclusions

This study provides quantifiable, predictive relationships between habitat types and python presence at the current stage of invasion. This knowledge can elucidate future targeted studies of python habitat use and behavior and help inform management efforts. Furthermore, it illustrates how estimates of relative habitat suitability derived from MaxEnt can be improved by both multi-scale perspectives on habitat and consideration of a variety of bias correction scenarios for selecting background points.
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17.

Context

Biodiversity in arid regions is usually concentrated around limited water resources, so natural resource managers have constructed artificial water catchments in many areas to supplement natural waters. Because invasive species may also use these waters, dispersing into previously inaccessible areas, the costs and benefits of artificial waters must be gauged and potential invasion- and climate change-management strategies assayed.

Objectives

We present a network analysis framework to identify waters that likely contribute to the spread of invasive species.

Methods

Using the Sonoran Desert waters network and the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus)—a known predator, competitor, and carrier of pathogens deadly to other amphibians—as an example, we quantified the structural connectivity of the network to predict regional invasion potential under current and two future scenarios (climate change and management reduction) to identify waters to manage and monitor for invasive species.

Results

We identified important and vulnerable waters based on connectivity metrics under scenarios representing current conditions, projected climate-limited conditions, and conditions based on removal of artificial waters. We identified 122,607 km2 of land that could be used as a buffer against invasion and 67,745 km2 of land that could be augmented by artificial water placement without facilitating invasive species spread.

Conclusions

Structural connectivity metrics can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies for invasive species and climate mitigation.
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18.

Context

The relative importance of habitat area and connectivity for species richness is often unknown. Connectivity effects may be confounded with area effects or they may be of minor importance as posited by the habitat-amount hypothesis.

Objectives

We studied effects of habitat area and connectivity of linear landscape elements for plant species richness at plot level. We hypothesized that connectivity of linear landscape elements, assessed by resistance distance, has a positive effect on species richness beyond the effect of area and, further, that the relative importance of connectivity varies among groups of species with different habitat preferences and dispersal syndromes.

Methods

We surveyed plant species richness in 50 plots (25 m2) located on open linear landscape elements (field margins, ditches) in eight study areas of 1 km2 in agricultural landscapes of Northwest Germany. We calculated the area of linear landscape elements and assessed their connectivity using resistance distance within circular buffers (500 m) around the plots. Effects of area and connectivity on species richness were modelled with generalised linear mixed models.

Results

Species richness did not increase with area. Resistance distance had significant negative effects on total richness and on the richness of typical species of grasslands and wetlands. Regarding dispersal syndromes, resistance distance had negative effects on the richness of species with short-distance, long-distance and aquatic dispersal. The significant effects of resistance distance indicated that species richness increased with connectivity of the network of linear landscape elements.

Conclusions

Connectivity is more important for plant species richness in linear landscape elements than area. In particular, the richness of plant species that are dispersal limited and confined to semi-natural habitats benefits from connective networks of linear landscape elements in agricultural landscapes.
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19.

Context

Land use change and forest degradation have myriad effects on tropical ecosystems. Yet their consequences for low-order streams remain very poorly understood, including in the world´s largest freshwater basin, the Amazon.

Objectives

Determine the degree to which physical and chemical characteristics of the instream habitat of low-order Amazonian streams change in response to past local- and catchment-level anthropogenic disturbances.

Methods

To do so, we collected field instream habitat (i.e., physical habitat and water quality) and landscape data from 99 stream sites in two eastern Brazilian Amazon regions. We used random forest regression trees to assess the relative importance of different predictor variables in determining changes in instream habitat response variables.

Results

Multiple drivers, operating at multiple spatial scales, were important in determining changes in the physical habitat and water quality of the sites. Although we found few similarities in modelled relationships between the two regions, we observed non-linear responses of specific instream characteristics to landscape change; for example 20 % of catchment deforestation resulted in consistently warmer streams.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of local riparian and catchment-scale forest cover in shaping instream physical environments, but also underscore the importance of other land use changes and activities, such as road crossings and upstream agriculture intensification. In contrast to the property-scale focus of the Brazilian Forest code, which governs environmental regulations on private land, our results reinforce the importance of catchment-wide management strategies to protect stream ecosystem integrity.
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20.

Context

Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the major drivers of population declines and extinction, particularly in large carnivores. Connectivity models provide practical tools for assessing fragmentation effects and developing mitigation or conservation responses. To be useful to conservation practitioners, connectivity models need to incorporate multiple scales and include realistic scenarios based on potential changes to habitat and anthropogenic pressures. This will help to prioritize conservation efforts in a changing landscape.

Objectives

The goal of our paper was to evaluate differences in population connectivity for lions (Panthera leo) across the Kavango-Zambezi Trans-frontier Conservation Area (KAZA) under different landscape change scenarios and a range of dispersal distances.

Methods

We used an empirically optimized resistance surface, based on analysis of movement pathways of dispersing lions in southern Africa to calculate resistant kernel connectivity. We assessed changes in connectivity across nine landscape change scenarios, under each of which we explored the behavior of lions with eight different dispersal abilities.

Results

Our results demonstrate that reductions in the extent of the protected area network and/or fencing protected areas will result in large declines in the extent of population connectivity, across all modeled dispersal abilities. Creation of corridors or erection of fences strategically placed to funnel dispersers between protected areas increased overall connectivity of the population.

Conclusions

Our results strongly suggest that the most effective means of maintaining long-term population connectivity of lions in the KAZA region involves retaining the current protected area network, augmented with protected corridors or strategic fencing to direct dispersing individuals towards suitable habitat and away from potential conflict areas.
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