The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Context

Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.

Objectives

We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.

Methods

We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.

Results

Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.

Conclusions

We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.

Recommendations

Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.

     

Vertebrate distributions relative to clear-cut edges in a boreal forest landscape

Clearcutting is the main method of harvesting boreal forests, to some extent mimicking natural disturbances by fire and wind-felling. Effects of clearcutting on vertebrate fauna in managed forests was examined by small mammal trapping in spring and autumn, winter censuses of mammal snow tracks and censuses of birds in spring and summer in one central and one edge (125 m) section of large clearcuts and mature forests, respectively. There was a separate clearcut fauna, at least on large clearcuts, that was well distinguished from the forest fauna. There was not any physiognomic ecotone but the forest fauna showed a marked edge effect with larger numbers of many species in the peripheral parts of the forest. In the forests examined, with a Western European bird fauna, there were no typical interior forest species, in contrast to northern taiga forests. The present forest species easily changed distributions seasonally and according to variations in snow conditions and food abundance. Such generalist species in the boreal forest will therefore vary considerably in local density according to landscape composition but will also show large-scale persistence. They may have been selected for as a result of man's restructuring of temperate and boreal landscapes, e.g. by forest management. Edge effects seem to arise for several reasons but will probably only apply to generalist species.     

Utility of landscape mosaics and boundaries in forest conservation decision making in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

We evaluated changes in the Atlantic Forest landscape over the last 40 years based on changes in boundaries and mosaics, including the hypothetical landscape resulting from the application of Brazilian laws for forest protection. Mosaics were identified as sets of land-use patches with a similar pattern of boundaries. Landscapes of different years, therefore, can be distinguished by differences in mosaics. We developed a technique to identify boundaries between patches from land-use maps using ArcGis^® and to build the patch x boundary matrix required for mosaic identification by means of a factorial and cluster analysis. The mosaics were characterized by some key uses as well as by their boundaries with other land uses. The mosaics were scored for forest conservation according to five issues: landscape permeability, cover, availability, quality, and fragmentation of forest. The values were based on land use and boundary patterns. Although Brazilian laws regarding forest protection have promoted conservation and the hypothetical legal landscape has presented the highest forest habitat availability, this expansion perpetuates a boundary pattern that complicates conservation and management, thus increasing the pressure on forest patches and favoring the further fragmentation of protected forest patches. These conclusions cannot be reached by simply recording changes in land uses.     

The potential to restore native woody plant richness and composition in a reforesting landscape: a modeling approach in the Ecuadorian Andes

Context

Natural regenerating forests are rapidly expanding in the tropics. Forest transitions have the potential to restore biodiversity. Spatial targeting of land use policies could improve the biodiversity benefits of reforesting landscapes.

Objective

We explored the relative importance of landscape attributes in influencing the potential of tree cover increase to restore native woody plant biodiversity at the landscape scale.

Methods

We developed land use scenarios that differed in spatial patterns of reforestation, using the Pangor watershed in the Ecuadorian Andes as a case study. We distinguished between reforestation through natural regeneration of woody vegetation in abandoned fallows and planted forests through managed plantations of exotic species on previously cultivated land. We simulated the restoration of woody plant biodiversity for each scenario using LANDIS-II, a process-based model of forest dynamics. A pair-case comparison of simulated woody plant biodiversity for each scenario was conducted against a random scenario.

Results

Species richness in natural regenerating fallows was considerably higher when occurring in: (i) close proximity to remnant forests; (ii) areas with a high percentage of surrounding forest cover; and (iii) compositional heterogeneous landscapes. Reforestation at intermediate altitudes also positively affected restoration of woody plant species. Planted exotic pine forests negatively affected species restoration.

Conclusions

Our research contributes to a better understanding of the recolonization processes of regenerating forests. We provide guidelines for reforestation policies that aim to conserve and restore woody plant biodiversity by accounting for landscape attributes.

     

Landscape planning: a working method applied to a case study of soil conservation

A working method for landscape planning is proposed. There are 11 steps in this method. In step one, an issue (or set of related issues) is identified as posing a problem or an opportunity to people and/or the environment. In step two, a goal (or several goals) is established to address the problem. In steps three and four, ecological inventories and analyses are conducted at two scales, first at the regional level (drainage basins are suggested as an appropriate unit) and then at the landscape level (watersheds are recommended). These inventories and analyses consider human ecology as well as bio-physical processes. Step five involves detailed studies, such as suitability analyses, that link inventory and analysis information to the problem(s) and goal(s). In step six, concepts are developed that lead to a landscape (watershed) master plan in step seven. During step eight, the plan is explained through a systematic educational effort to the affected public. In step nine, detailed designs are developed. In step 10 the plan and designs are implemented. Step 11 involves administering and monitoring the plan. The method is explained through an example of soil conservation planning. The case study was undertaken in the Missouri Flat Creek watershed of the Palouse region in the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) to help achieve the goals for erosion control established by the federal Food Security Act of 1985 and state clean water legislation.     

Effects of forest regeneration on songbird movements in a managed forest landscape of Alberta,Canada

Recent studies have shown that barrier effects exist even in relatively vagile species such as forest songbirds. The objectives of this study were to determine whether a 560 × 100 m riparian buffer strip of mature forest was used as a movement corridor by forest songbirds and, if so, to what extent corridor effects persisted as woody vegetation regenerated in the adjacent clearcut. Over a 4-yr period, juvenile movement rates decreased in the riparian buffer strip and increased in the regenerating clearcut. Adult movement rates increased in the riparian buffer strip in the first year after logging, then gradually decreased, while still increasing in the regenerating clearcut. However, both juvenile and adult movement rates were higher in the buffer strip than in an undisturbed control site. Results suggest that most adults we captured held territories in the vicinity of the net lanes,and that most of the juveniles captured were dispersing away from their natal territory. Four years after harvest, juvenile movement rates were higher in the regenerating clearcut than in the riparian buffer strip, but several species had not yet been captured or detected in the regeneration. Our results suggest that the use of the riparian buffer strip as a movement corridor decreased with forest regeneration for both adults and juveniles. However, the buffer strip still acted as a movement corridor for the following species: Philadelphia and Red-eyed Vireos, Red-breasted Nuthatch, and Ovenbird. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Governing the landscape: potential and challenges of integrated approaches to landscape sustainability in Indonesia

Landscape Ecology - In recent years, landscape sustainability, the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in landscapes, has become a core objective...     

Sensitivity of ecosystem goods and services projections of a forest landscape model to initialization data

Projections of indicators of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) based on process-based landscape models are critical for adapting forest management to climate change. However, the scarcity of fine-grained, spatially explicit forest data means that initializing these models is both a challenge and a source of uncertainty. To test how different initialization approaches influence the simulation of forest dynamics and EGS indicators we initialized the forest landscape model LandClim with fine resolution empirical data, coarse empirical data, and simulation-derived data, and evaluated the results at three spatial scales (stand, management area and landscape). Simulations were performed for a spruce (Picea abies) dominated landscape in the Black Forest, Germany, under current climate and a climate change scenario. We found that long-term (>150 years) projections are robust to initialization uncertainty. In contrast, shorter-term projections are sensitive to initialization uncertainty, with sensitivity increasing when EGS are assessed at smaller spatial scales, and when the EGS indicators depend on the spatial distribution of individual species. EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by interactions between the density, species composition, and age structure of initialized forests and simulated forest management. If EGS dynamics are strongly influenced by climate change, such as when climate change induces mortality in drought-sensitive species, some of the initialization uncertainty can be masked. We advocate for initializing landscape models with fine-grained data in applications that focus on spatial management problems in heterogeneous landscapes, and stress that the scale of analysis must be in accordance with the accuracy that is warranted by the initialization data.     

Not all forests are alike: the role of commercial forest in the conservation of landscape connectivity for the giant panda

Context

The downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species.

Objectives

We evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions.

Methods

We applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches.

Results

We found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda.

Conclusions

We recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.

     

Seeing the oakscape beyond the forest: a landscape approach to the oak regeneration in Europe

Context

Intensification and specialisation of agriculture and forest use has led to profound structural and compositional changes in European landscapes. In particular, sharp, narrow edges adjacent to relatively homogenous vegetation types progressively replace transitional habitats, crucial for a plethora of species and ecological processes. Quercus robur and Q. petraea regeneration niches make them best adapted to such transitional habitats. However, contemporary oaks’ importance, including their regeneration, is usually considered within limits of forest habitats.

Objective

Defining habitats, landscape patterns and processes fostering oak regeneration and ‘oakscape’ development.

Methods

We assessed the state-of-the art of the topical literature with respect to various aspects of oak regeneration based on a refined list of 234 titles from the Web of Science database.

Results

The review confirmed that the vast majority of studies focus on forest habitats, disregarding the fact that substantial part of acorns are being carried away and seeded by birds in non-forest habitats.

Conclusions

The common acceptance of the simplistic landscape mosaic model, based on segregated homogenous vegetation categories and clear-cut lines separating patches, impedes proper assessment of landscape changes, referring to ‘untypical’, transitional habitats—the true oaks’ domain. Hence, restoring and sustaining European ‘oakscape’ should result from the overall landscape management, based on a better adapted gradient approach to landscape studies. Applying such an approach, we identified a set of habitats fostering successful oak regeneration and recruitment without direct human support, contributing to the contemporary ‘oakscape’, represented mostly by non-forest, either natural or anthropogenic habitats.

     

Extinction risk of wood-living model species in forest landscapes as related to forest history and conservation strategy

Dead wood is a critical resource for biodiversity in boreal forests. We analysed the persistence of five model species inhabiting dead wood. By parameterising a metapopulation model (the incidence function model), the model species were all assigned characteristics that makes it likely that they have disappeared from some (20%) forest landscapes with a long history of forest management. In the metapopulation model, a forest stand (5 ha) was regarded as a habitat patch. The amount of habitat in each patch was obtained from models of dead wood dynamics of Norway spruce in central Sweden. Dead wood generated by altered management over the entire landscape was found to be less efficient in reducing extinction risks in comparison to the same amount of dead wood generated by protecting reserves. Because generation of dead wood by altered management is often less expensive than setting aside reserves, it is difficult to determine which conservation measure is most cost-efficient. In a landscape subjected to forestry for the first time, it was better to preserve a few large reserves than many small ones. However, in a managed, highly fragmented forest landscape it was better to set aside many small reserves. The reason for this was that small plots with high habitat quality could be selected, while large reserves originally contained habitats both of high and low quality, and the rate of habitat quality increase was low. A strategy for biodiversity conservation in a managed forest landscape should include information about the history of the landscape, the current amount and spatial distribution of forest habitats, and the potential for rapid restoration of forest habitats, both on managed and unmanaged forest land.     

Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Habitat corridors and the conservation of small mammals in a fragmented forest environment

At Naringal in south-western Victoria, Australia, clearing of the original forest environment has created an agricultural landscape dominated by grazed pastures of introduced grasses. Remnant forest vegetation is re-stricted to small patches of less than 100 ha in size, that are loosely linked by narrow forested strips along road reserves and creeks. Six native and two introduced species of small terrestrial mammal (< 2 kg) occur within this environment. The native mammals, being dependent upon forest vegetation, were less tolerant to forest fragmentation than were the introduced species that also persist in farmland and farm buildings. The native mammals displayed an increasing frequency of occurrence in successively larger size-classes of forest patches. Those species with the greatest body-weight were the most vulnerable to habitat loss. All species of small mammal occurred in narrow habitat corridors of forest vegetation on roadsides. The resident status, seasonal variation in relative abundance, patterns of reproduction, and movements of each species were monitored in two habitat corridors during a 25-month trapping study. The corridors were found to facilitate continuity between otherwise-isolated populations of small mammals in this locality in two ways: firstly, by providing a pathway for the dispersal of single animals between patches; and secondly, by enabling gene flow through populations resident within the corridors. The small size of forest remnants at Naringal, and the vulnerability of species with low population sizes, emphasize the importance of preserving a mosaic of numerous habitat patches that together will support regional populations of sufficient size for longer-term persistence. The continuity between remnant habitats that is provided by a network of habitat corridors is an essential, and critical, component of this conservation strategy.     

Small mammals in a mosaic of forest remnants and anthropogenic habitats—evaluating matrix quality in an Atlantic forest landscape

The matrix of altered habitats that surrounds remnants in human dominated landscapes has been considered homogeneous and inhospitable. Recent studies, however, have shown the crucial role of the matrix in maintaining diversity in fragmented landscapes, acting as a mosaic of units with varying permeability to different species. Inclusion of matrix quality parameters is especially urgent in managing fragmented landscapes in the tropics where agriculture frontiers are still expanding. Using standardized surveys in 23 sites in an Atlantic forest landscape, we evaluated matrix use by small mammals, the most diverse ecological group of mammals in the Neotropics, and tested the hypothesis that endemic species are the most affected by the conversion of original forest into anthropogenic habitats. By comparing species distribution among forest remnants and the predominant adjacent habitats (native vegetation in initial stages of regeneration, eucalyptus plantations, areas of agriculture and rural areas with buildings), we found a strong dissimilarity in small mammal assemblages between native vegetation (including initial stages) and anthropogenic habitats, with only two species being able to use all habitats. Endemic small mammals tended to occupy native vegetation, whereas invading species from other countries or open biomes tended to occupy areas of non-native vegetation. Our results highlight that future destruction of native vegetation will favor invading or generalist species which could dominate highly disturbed landscapes, and that some matrix habitats, such as regenerating native vegetation, should be managed to increase connectivity among populations of endemic species.     

The efficacy of protected areas and private land for plant conservation in a fragmented landscape

Context

Protected areas are a cornerstone of the global strategy for conserving biodiversity, and yet their efficacy in comparison to unprotected areas is rarely tested. In the highly fragmented forests of temperate regions, landscape context and forest history may be more important than protection status for plant species diversity.

Objectives

To determine whether there are differences in plant diversity between protected areas and private lands while controlling for landscape context, forest age, and other important factors.

Methods

We used a database of 156 one-hectare forest plots distributed over 120,000 km² in the fragmented forests of southern Ontario to test whether protected areas and private forests differed in native species richness, relative abundance of exotic species, and the probability of finding species of conservation concern.

Results

Plots with more forest on the surrounding landscape had higher native species richness, lower abundance of exotic species, and greater probability of supporting at least one species of conservation concern. Young forests tended to have higher abundance of exotics, and were less likely to support species of conservation concern. Surprisingly, privately owned forests had greater native species richness and were more likely to support species of conservation concern once these other factors were accounted for. In addition, there were significant interactions between ownership type, forest history, and landscape context.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of privately owned forests in this region, and the need to consider forest history and landscape context when comparing the efficacy of protected areas versus private land for sustaining biodiversity.

     

Occupancy pattern of a long-horned beetle in a variegated forest landscape: linkages between tree quality and forest cover across spatial scales

Context

Interactions between landscape-scale processes and fine-grained habitat heterogeneity are usually invoked to explain species occupancy in fragmented landscapes. In variegated landscapes, however, organisms face continuous variation in micro-habitat features, which makes necessary to consider ecologically meaningful estimates of habitat quality at different spatial scales.

Objectives

We evaluated the spatial scales at which forest cover and tree quality make the greatest contribution to the occupancy of the long-horned beetle Microplophorus magellanicus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in a variegated forest landscape.

Methods

We used averaged data of tree quality (as derived from remote sensing estimates of the decay stage of single trees) and spatially independent pheromone-baited traps to model the occurrence probability as a function of multiple cross-scale combinations between forest cover and tree quality (with scales ranging between 50 and 400 m).

Results

Model support and performance increased monotonically with the increasing scale at which tree quality was measured. Forest cover was not significant, and did not exhibit scale-specific effects on the occurrence probability of M. magellanicus. The interactive effect between tree quality and forest cover was stronger than the independent (additive) effects of tree quality and particularly forest cover. Significant interactions included tree quality measured at spatial scales ≥200 m, but cross-scale interactions occurred only in four of the seven best-supported models.

Conclusions

M. magellanicus respond to the high-quality trees available in the landscape rather than to the amount of forest per se. Conservation of viable metapopulations of M. magellanicus should consider the quality of trees at spatial scales >200 m.

     

The importance of functional connectivity in the conservation of a ground-dwelling mammal in an urban Australian landscape

The distribution of the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), a medium-sized ground-dwelling marsupial, was examined in habitat fragments within the urban landscape of the city of Brisbane, Australia. From surveys conducted in 68 fragments, bandicoots were found to be present in 33 (49%) despite widespread habitat loss and fragmentation. Logistic regression analysis revealed that of 13 measured independent variables, functional connectivity was the only factor that significantly predicted the presence of bandicoots within fragments, with connectivity positively correlated with the likelihood of occupation. Functional connectivity was equated to the likelihood of bandicoot immigration into the focal fragment from the nearest occupied fragment, based on the estimated resistance to movement offered by the intervening matrix. Within Brisbane, riparian habitat fragments typically have a relatively high level of functional connectivity, as thin strips of vegetation fringing waterways serve as corridors between larger riparian areas and facilitate the movement of bandicoots between patches. Analyses based on the Akaike Information Criterion revealed that the optimal model based on landscape context variables was convincingly better supported by the data than the optimal model produced from fragment characteristics. However, it is important to examine both internal attributes of habitat fragments and external features of the surrounding landscape when modelling the distribution of ground-dwelling fauna in urban environments, or other landscapes with a highly variable matrix. As urban centres throughout the world expand, it is crucial that the ecology of local wildlife be considered to ensure functional connection is maintained between habitat patches, especially for the conservation of species that are highly susceptible to fragmentation.     

The impact of typhoon on post-volcanic-eruption forest landscape recovery: a study in Changbai mountain through 300 years of historic landscape reconstruction

Landscape Ecology - Study of interplay of disturbance and forest succession is key to understand forest landscape dynamics, especially under changing climate and disturbance regimes. However, most...     

Living on the edge: quantifying the structure of a fragmented forest landscape in England

Forest ecosystems have been widely fragmented by human land use, inducing significant microclimatic and biological changes at the forest edge. If we are to rigorously assess the ecological impacts of habitat fragmentation, there is a need to effectively quantify the amount of edge habitat within a landscape, and to allow this to be modelled for individual species and processes. Edge effect may extend only a few metres or as far as several kilometres, depending on the species or process in question. Therefore, rather than attempting to quantify the amount of edge habitat by using a fixed, case-specific distance to distinguish between edge and core, the area of habitat within continuously-varying distances from the forest edge is of greater utility. We quantified the degree of fragmentation of forests in England, where forests cover 10 % of the land area. We calculated the distance from within the forest patches to the nearest edge (forest vs. non-forest) and other landscape indices, such as mean patch size, edge density and distance to the nearest neighbour. Of the total forest area, 37 % was within 30 m and 74 % within 100 m of the nearest edge. This highlights that, in fragmented landscapes, the habitats close to the edge form a considerable proportion of the total habitat area. We then show how these edge estimates can be combined with ecological response functions, to allow us to generate biologically meaningful estimates of the impacts of fragmentation at a landscape scale.     

Effects of habitat fragmentation on Eurasian red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) in a forest landscape

We studied the effects of habitat fragmentation, measured as forest stand size and isolation, on the distribution of Eurasian red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris). Squirrel density was surveyed during four years in 46 forest stands (0.1–500 ha) in a forest landscape in south-central Sweden. The only factor that significantly influenced a density index was the proportion of spruce within a habitat fragment. Neither fragment size nor degree of isolation were significant. Furthermore, none of the interactions with year were significant, suggesting the same pattern in all four years. Thus, the effect of habitat fragmentation in this study seems to be only pure habitat loss, i.e. halving the proportion of preferred habitat in the landscape should result in a halving of the red squirrel population. Therefore, the landscape can be viewed as functionally continuous for the squirrels, although the preferred habitat was divided into fragments. The most likely explanation for the difference between this study and other studies on squirrels that found effects due to habitat fragmentation is a combination of shorter distances and less hostile surroundings in our study area. To identify landscape effects requires multiple studies because single studies usually consider only one landscape.