Survival of Escherichia coli and Salmonella Typhimurium in slurry applied to clay soil on a Danish swine farm

A pilot study was carried out on a Danish swine farm infected with multi-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (MRDT104). We aimed to (1) investigate to which degree the decline of Escherichia coli and Salmonella in swine slurry applied to farmland depended on the application method; (2) estimate the survival times of E. coli and Salmonella in the soil surface following deposition of naturally contaminated pig slurry; and (3) simulate survival of Salmonella in different infection levels using E. coli data as input estimates. Slurry was deposited by four different methods: (1) hose applicator on black soil followed by ploughing and harrowing; (2) hose applicator on black soil followed only by harrowing; (3) hose applicator on a field with winter-wheat seedlings without further soil treatment; (4) slurry injector on a field with winter-wheat seedlings without further soil treatment. E. coli and Salmonella could not be detected at all in soil following treatment 1. Following the other treatments, E. coli was not detected in soil samples after day 21 and Salmonella was no longer detected after day 7. Simulation results showed that clinical (4 log CFU g⁻¹) and sub-clinical Salmonella levels (2500 CFU g⁻¹) would fall below the detection limit within 10 or 5 days, respectively. Analysis of samples from 62 Danish MRDT104-infected swineherds showed that nearly 75% of these herds had low levels of MRDT104 (<10 CFU g⁻¹) in their slurry. Our results show that ploughing and harrowing of soil amended with contaminated pig slurry was an effective means to reduce environmental exposure to E. coli and Salmonella on this clay-soil farm.     

Prevalence of multidrug resistant (MDR) Salmonella in bovine dairy herds in western France

As a part of our effort in quantitative risk analysis of food-borne diseases, we carried out an epidemiologic study to estimate the prevalence of multidrug resistant (MDR) Salmonella in dairy herds situated in western France. The study population consisted of 489 farms in the region and manure or slurry was sampled from these operations and tested for the Salmonella spp. All strains isolated during the study were serotyped and tested for their antimicrobial susceptibility. Salmonella spp. was isolated from 8.1% (95% confidence interval (CI 95%): 4.5–13.3%) of the sampled herds. The herd prevalence of MDR Salmonella among the sampled herds was 1.9% (CI 95%: 0.5–5.4%). Spatial statistics were used to check for sampling representativeness and to determine if infected herds were clustered spatially.     

Herd-level risk factors for Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica in U.S. market pigs

Midwest U.S. herds (n = 63) were studied to identify risk factors for harboring Salmonella enterica among slaughter-weight pigs. Samples collected on farms (feces) and at slaughter (distal colonic content, cecal content and ileocolic lymph nodes) were cultured using conventional means. Approximately 15 pigs were studied per herd, for a total of 3754 samples. The proportion of pigs positive in one or more samples was calculated for each herd. Herd characteristics were described by a combination of interview and written survey. Logistic regression was used to detect relationships between the detection of Salmonella and potential herd-level risk factors. The mean individual pig prevalence was 5% for feces, 4% for distal colonic content, 15% for ileocolic lymph nodes, and 17% for cecal contents. One or more Salmonella isolates were detected in at least one sample type in every herd. The five most common serovars were S. Agona, S. Derby, S. Schwarzengrund, S. Typhimurium and S. Senftenberg, with 25 additional serovars detected. Salmonella prevalence estimates were positively correlated among all samples except distal colonic content and ileocolic lymph nodes. Pigs with culture positive fecal samples were at increased odds of being detected positive for each of the slaughter-collected samples examined, namely distal colonic content (OR = 30.5), ileocolic lymph nodes (OR = 12.9) and cecal content (OR = 23.2). Herds with positive fecal sample(s) had increased odds of having positive cecal content (OR > 1.5), distal colonic content (OR = 15.3) and ileocolic lymph nodes (OR = 12.7). Pigs from herds with at least some bowl drinkers had eight-fold higher odds of testing Salmonella positive than did pigs from herds with only nipple drinkers. Pigs from herds with only dry feeders had five-fold higher odds of testing Salmonella positive when compared with pigs from herds with combinations of wet/dry style feeders. Interventions at these two points should be considered when designing growing pig facilities to reduce Salmonella shedding.     

Associations between the proportion of Salmonella seropositive slaughter pigs and the presence of herd level risk factors for introduction and transmission of Salmonella in 34 Danish organic, outdoor (non-organic) and indoor finishing-pig farms

This paper evaluates the association between herd level risk factors for introduction and transmission of Salmonella in farms with three different production systems: organic, outdoor (non-organic) and indoor finishing-pig farms, and the presence of seropositive animals in the herds. Potential risk factors for Salmonella in the three pig production systems were identified through a literature review, and management information as well as serological data were collected in 34 pig farms: 11 organic farms, 12 outdoor farms, and 11 indoor farms. There were no general differences in the proportion of Salmonella seropositive animals in the organic, outdoor, and indoor pig farms. Correspondence analysis showed that the occurrence of seropositive animals in the herds was mostly associated to the risk of introducing Salmonella in the herds by purchasing and transporting growing pigs. No associations between herd risk factors for transmission and survival of Salmonella and seropositive animals in the herds were found.     

The range of influence between cattle herds is of importance for the local spread of Salmonella Dublin in Denmark

The objective of the study was to estimate the range of influence between cattle herds with positive Salmonella Dublin herd status. Herd status was a binary outcome of high/low antibody levels to Salmonella Dublin in bulk-tank milk and blood samples collected from all cattle herds in Denmark for surveillance purposes. Two methods were used. Initially, a spatial generalised linear mixed model was developed with an exponential correlation function to estimate the range of influence simultaneously with the effect of potential risk factors. An iteratively reweighted generalised least squares procedure was used as a second method for verifying the range of influence estimates. With this iterative procedure, deviance residuals were calculated based on a generalised linear model and the range of influence was estimated based on the residuals using an exponential semivariogram. The range of influence was estimated for six different regions in Denmark using both methods. The analyses were performed on data collected during 1 year after initiation of the Salmonella Dublin surveillance program providing herd classifications for the 4th year-quarter of 2003 and 2 years later for the 4th year-quarter of 2005. The prevalence of dairy herds with a positive Salmonella Dublin herd classification status in this period had decreased from 22.1 to 17.0%. In non-dairy herds, the prevalence was nearly unchanged during the same period (3.4 and 3.7% in 4th quarter of 2003 and 2005, respectively). For all cattle herds, the range of influence was 2.3–6.4 km in 2003 and 1.5–8.3 km in 2005. There seemed to be no association between the range of influence and the density of herds in the different regions.     

Towards incorporating spatial risk analysis for Salmonella sero-positivity into the Danish swine surveillance programme

An increased incidence of pork-related human salmonellosis in Denmark led to the development of a national control programme for Salmonella in Danish swine herds in 1993. The aim of the programme has been met and now the issue of cost-effectiveness is receiving greater attention. An appropriate way to address this is to bring a risk-based focus to the programme.

We describe a practical approach to risk-based surveillance through spatial risk assessment using serological and questionnaire data from 2280 herds in 1995. A mixed effects logistic regression model was fitted and both first- and second-order spatial properties of the random effects were investigated. We identified wet-feeding (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.54–0.75) and SPF health status (OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.52–0.81) as protective factors for Salmonella sero-positivity. Purchasing feed (OR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.61–2.04) was a risk factor. The west of the study area generally, and the north of Jutland in particular, experienced the greatest disease risk after controlling for the covariates. There was some evidence for spatial dependency between farms at distances of 6 km (95% CI: 2–35 km) on the Jutland peninsula.

We conclude that when farm location details are analysed in conjunction with routinely recorded surveillance information (such as that collected by the Danish swine Salmonella control programme) and targeted industry surveys (such as those conducted by slaughterhouse co-operatives), our knowledge of the behaviour of disease in animal populations is enhanced and this provides a more informed framework for designing efficient, risk-based surveillance strategies.     

Prevalence of Salmonella spp. on Canadian pig farms using liquid or dry-feeding

The objective of this study was to determine whether the shedding and antibody titre to Salmonella was lower for pig herds provided liquid-feed compared to those on traditional dry rations. Twenty liquid-feeding farms and 61 dry-feeding farms were selected. The amount of antibodies to Salmonella in sera from 15 finisher pigs on each of 80 Ontario swine farms was analyzed by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, the presence of Salmonella on the 20 liquid-feeding farms and 21 of the dry-feeding farms was assessed by culture of 15 fecal samples taken directly from finisher pigs and five pooled pen-fecal samples at each farm.

A cut-off of OD% 10 was used. The Salmonella sero-prevalence differed between the two groups of farms. At least one pig tested sero-positive on 98% of the dry-feeding farms and 84% of the liquid-feeding farms (P < 0.05). A multi-variable mixed linear regression model with the farm as a random variable and farm factors as the fixed effects was fitted. Crude optical density (OD) of the individual pig was considered as the continuous dependent variable. Dry-feeding and antimicrobial daily usage was associated with crude OD (P < 0.05). In addition, crude OD increased with increasing herd size (P < 0.05).

Salmonella was isolated from 25 out of 420 fecal samples (6%) from dry-feeding farms compared to three out of 400 samples (0.8%) from liquid-feeding farms. Eight of the dry-feeding farms (38%) tested positive compared to only three of the liquid-feeding farms (15%). Salmonella was also recovered from the pen environment on five dry-feeding farms but were not isolated from the facilities using liquid-feeding. Salmonella Typhimurium was isolated from four farms in the dry-feed group and on one farm with liquid-feeding. The one S. Typhimurium isolate from the liquid-feeding farm exhibited no antimicrobial resistance, but those from dry-feeding farms were resistant to four or more antimicrobial agents. The results of the logistic regression, with farm as a random effect showed that dry-feeding [OR = 2.7 (1.1–15.1)] and continuous flow system [OR = 2.3 (1.2–12.7)] increased risk of finding Salmonella in the individual pig.

These findings indicate that liquid-feeding and all-in all-out management of the grower–finisher barns can reduce the Salmonella prevalence.     

Factors associated with variation in bulk-tank-milk Salmonella Dublin ELISA ODC% in dairy herds

Our objective was to determine factors that contribute to variation in bulk-tank-milk Salmonella Dublin enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) corrected optic-density measurements (ODC%) in dairy herds. We constructed hierarchical mixed models with repeated bulk-tank-milk ELISA ODC% in 31 Danish dairy herds. Four models included different combinations of explanatory factors, and we compared how well these models described the variation in the data. Herd was included as a random effect nested within Salmonella status and barn type.

Detection of Salmonella Dublin or Salmonella Typhimurium by bacteriological culture of individual faecal samples or of slurry samples was associated with higher bulk-tank-milk ELISA ODC%, as was apparent Salmonella prevalence, the mean ELISA ODC% or mean-yield-corrected ELISA ODC% in milk samples collected from all individual cows. However, combinations of risk factors that included number or prevalence of cows with a very high ELISA ODC% provided better models, indicating that the effect of the cow-level explanatory variables on the bulk-tank-milk ELISA ODC% was related to the activity of the infection in the herd. Barn type (loose housing or tie stalls) was not associated with the variation in bulk-tank-milk ELISA ODC% in these models, which might be useful in planning of surveillance programs and intervention strategies.     

Salmonella enterica level in French pig farms effluents: Experimental and field data

The study aimed to (1) validate the mini-MSRV-MPN method to quantify Salmonella enterica in pig slurry, (2) estimate the effect and interaction on temperature, time and initial Salmonella load on the survival of the 2 strains of Salmonella typhimurium (PF 1690 and DT104 100/706/037) during slurry storage and (3) identify Salmonella contaminated finishing pig batches and assess the level of contamination of their slurry. The mini-MSRV-MPN method was compared to direct isolations on brilliant green agar supplemented with rifampicin to quantify Salmonella in pig slurry. Doelhert uniform shell design was used to study the effect of different parameters on the survival of the 2 strains of Salmonella in pig slurry. Environmental samples of faecal material and a sample of the slurry of 50 batches of finishing pigs were analysed by bacteriological classical method to identify Salmonella. Quantification was performed on pools of faeces and in slurry using the mini-MSRV-MPN technique. This method proved to be suited to quantify Salmonella in pig slurry. Temperature, time of slurry storage and their interaction influenced Salmonella decrease. 12 batches of pigs tested Salmonella positive. Quantification was possible in 5 batches of faecal samples (2.4–350 MPN g^− 1 of Salmonella). Quantification was achieved in 2 out of 6 positive samples of slurry (1.6 and 110 MPN mL^− 1 of Salmonella).     

Prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella on midwest and northeast USA dairy farms

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among Salmonella isolated from dairy herds in New York, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, USA. Serogroup and antimicrobial susceptibility characteristics were determined for Salmonella from cattle and environmental samples collected during August 2000–October 2001 as part of a longitudinal study where 129 herds were visited at 2-month intervals. Salmonella isolates were tested (using a broth microdilution method) for susceptibility to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, ampicillin, ceftiofur, ceftriaxone, cephalothin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, kanamycin, nalidixic acid, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, tetracycline, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. Of the 1506 isolates tested for minimum inhibitory concentrations to these 14 antimicrobial agents, 81.2% were pan-susceptible and for most herds (81.6%) the predominant antimicrobial resistance pattern was pan-susceptible. At least 1 Salmonella isolate resistant to 5 or more antimicrobial agents was found on 23.6% of herds. This resistance phenotype was most common among serogroups B and E1 and among samples from calves and farmer-designated sick cows. Resistant samples most frequently exhibited resistance to tetracycline, streptomycin, and/or ampicillin. No samples were resistant to ceftriaxone (though 13 were in the intermediate range), and very few samples were resistant to ciprofloxacin (n = 1), nalidixic acid (n = 5), or trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (n = 7).     

Effect of previous antimicrobial treatment on fecal shedding of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serogroup B in New York dairy herds with recent clinical salmonellosis

The association of herd- and sample-level factors with the isolation of Salmonella group B from cattle fecal samples was analyzed. Study farms were 65 dairy herds with a recent history of laboratory-confirmed clinical salmonella infections. Herds were visited once per month for three months to collect data and samples for bacteriological culture. Herd size varied widely from 34 to 3700 total cattle on the farm (median=370). Salmonella serogroup B was isolated from 270 of 2726 samples tested. The predominant serotypes identified were S. Typhimurium and S. Typhimurium var. Copenhagen. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between potential risk factors and isolating Salmonella serogroup B. The only herd-level factor which was significantly associated with fecal shedding was total herd size (hundreds of cattle OR=1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.14). The probability of a positive sample decreased substantially for longer intervals between the initial clinical case and sampling (interval in months OR=0.5; 95% CI: 0.3, 0.6). The presence of diarrhea increased the risk of shedding (OR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.4, 3.0). The effect of recent treatment with antimicrobial agents depended on age group. For heifers and cows, recent antimicrobial treatment increased the probability of isolating Salmonella (heifers OR=11.8; 95% CI: 2.9, 48.8; cows OR=4.1; 95% CI: 2.0, 8.4), but this effect was not statistically significant for calves before weaning. Among animals without recent antimicrobial treatment, preweaned calves were more likely to have positive samples than cows (OR=3.5; 95% CI: 1.8, 6.9; heifers OR=4.7; 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6).     

Accuracy of two commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for the detection of antibodies to Salmonella spp. in slaughter pigs from Canada

Large discrepancies are usually found when different ELISAs for the diagnosis of pig salmonellosis are compared. Thus, our main goal was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy through Bayesian approaches of two commercial assays (Svanovir™ “test A” and HerdCheck™ “test B”) for the detection of antibodies to Salmonella spp. in slaughter pigs. Previously, we estimated the agreement between both tests and their relative sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) with respect to bacteriology on caecal content and ileocaecal lymph nodes. Test A, at a cut-off OD% ≥20%, indicated higher prevalence than test B (OD% ≥10%) (14.6% vs. 8.6%). Relative Se with respect to overall bacteriology was low (≈30%) and similar for both tests, but the relative Sp was significantly lower for test A compared to B (88% vs. 95%). Both tests failed to detect some pigs infected with Salmonella serogroups B and C₁, which they were supposed to identify. In general, tests showed only fair-to-moderate agreement when they were compared (kappa: 0.41). In the Bayesian models, Se of test A varied between 63% and 77%, while Se of test B was 73%. Sp of A was always lower than that of test B (89% vs. 95%). The implications derived from the use of these imperfect serological tests will have to be accounted for in large-scale Salmonella-control programs.     

Herd prevalence of Salmonella enterica infections in Danish slaughter pigs determined by microbiological testing

As a part of a nationwide programme to survey and control salmonella in pig herds, a microbiological survey of 1363 pig herds was performed in Denmark. A total of 13 468 slaughter pigs were examined at slaughter by culture of 5 g of caecal contents. Overall, 30 different serotypes of Salmonella enterica were isolated from 832 pigs (6.2%). The predominant serotype was S. Typhimurium, comprising 536 (64.4%) of the isolates. Four hundred and forty-eight isolates of S. Typhimurium were examined by phage typing, resulting in detection of 17 different phage types (definitive types, DT) with DT12 being the most frequent (49.1%).

Salmonella enterica was found in 302 herds (22.2%), S. Typhimurium was found in 61.1% of these. 279 (23.1%) large herds (producing more than 2600 slaughter pigs per year) were found to be salmonella positive compared with 23 (14.7 %) small herds (annual production of 500 to 550 slaughter pigs). Practical constraints in the study design did not allow for a firm conclusion on the interplay among herd size, geographical location and occurrence of salmonella.

In 284 of 302 infected herds (94.0%) only one serotype was detected. Infections with two different serovars were seen in 18 herds (6.0%).     

Risk factors for clinical salmonellosis in Virginia, USA cattle herds

Veterinarians working in several Virginia, USA counties noticed an increase in clinical salmonellosis in cattle herds during 1994. We conducted a case–control study to identify potential risk factors for salmonellosis in cattle herds in this region. The potential impact of exposure to poultry-related factors was of particular interest because of the close proximity of poultry and cattle operations in this part of the state. Information was collected from 23 case farms and 23 control farms matched by herd veterinarian, type of enterprise (beef vs. dairy), and location. Faecal and environmental samples were collected during herd visits for bacteriologic culture.

Salmonella was isolated from 4.7% of 531 faecal, feed, water, and environmental samples collected. Salmonella Typhimurium was the serotype found most frequently in clinical cases in participating herds and from samples collected during study visits. Case herds had a higher percentage of study samples positive for Salmonella. Potential risk factors were screened using methods for pair-matched data and then analyzed in individual conditional logistic-regression models to estimate odds ratios with 95% profile likelihood confidence intervals. Significant factors included: the number of mature cows in the herd (OR=1.01; CI 1.00, 1.03), percent change in the number of mature cows during 1994 (OR=0.68; CI 0.11, 0.96), having calves usually born in a building rather than outdoors (OR=0.17; CI 0.01, 0.98), poultry manure spread on bordering property (OR=4.00; CI 1.00, 26.50), signs of rodents in cattle-housing or feed-storage areas (OR=2.75; CI 0.94, 9.92), and contact of wild geese with cattle or feed (OR=4.5; 1.16, 29.51).     

Nation-wide Salmonella enterica surveillance and control in Danish slaughter swine herds

A nation-wide Salmonella enterica surveillance and control programme was initiated in Danish finishing herds over the first quarter of 1995. In Denmark, all swine for slaughter are identifiable by a unique herd code. For each herd code, and depending on the herd's annual kill, random samples ranging from four to more than 60 swine are obtained quarterly at the abattoir. A meat sample from each pig is frozen, and meat juice (harvested after thawing) is examined for specific antibodies against S. enterica using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The ELISA combines several S. enterica O-antigens, and allows detection of antibody response after a variety of different S. enterica serovar infections. Results are transferred to a central database, which each month (based on meat-juice tests obtained in the previous 13 weeks) assigns all herds into three S. enterica infection levels: Level 1, in which the S. enterica prevalence is deemed low and acceptable; Level 2, where there is a moderate prevalence of S. enterica seroreacl.ors (from > 50% in the smallest to > 10% in the largest herds); Level 3, in which S. enterica seroreactor prevalence is clearly unsatisfactory ( > 50% for most herd sizes). Irrespective of Salmonella level, all herds receive a monthly update on the current results of the S. enterica test results. If a herd is categorized in Level 2 or 3, it must receive an advisory visit by a practising veterinarian and a local swine extension specialist, and certain management hygiene precautions must be taken. If a herd is categorized in Level 3, the finishers from the herd must additionally be slaughtered under special hygiene precautions. This is supervised by the veterinary authorities.

During 1995, 604000 samples were tested for S. enterica, corresponding to 3.0% of the total kill. In December 1995, 15522 herds (representing > 90% of the national production) were categorized into one of the three levels: 14551 herds (93.7%) in Level 1; 610 herds (3.9%) in Level 2; 361 herds (2.3%) in Level 3. The proportion of serologically positive meat-juice samples collected during 1995 ranged from a mean of 2.9% in smaller herds (101–200 swine slaughtered per year) to 6.1% in relatively large herds (more than 5000 swine slaughtered per year).     

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for human salmonellosis due to multi-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 from consumption of Danish dry-cured pork sausages

Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (DT104) is unwanted in products for human consumption due to its antibiotic resistance and ability to cause disease. We intended to set up an improved monitoring and management program to aid in deciding when to use pork contaminated with DT104 for production of sausages without jeopardizing consumer safety. We started by carrying out two assessments of the risk for human health associated with consumption of sausages produced by: (1) Danish pork from average slaughter days; (2) imported pork (IMP) with average prevalence of DT104. The assessments showed that, if Salmonella is present, it is usually in lower numbers (≤50 per 400 cm² surface). Additionally, during processing, the numbers will be reduced by at least 2 log-units. In Danish (DK) pork, DT104 constitutes 0.2–1.0% of the Salmonella isolates reported, while in imported pork (IMP), 18%. We estimated that out of one million, 25 g servings of DK dry-cured sausages, up to two DT104 bacteria could be found in each of 245 servings. Out of one million servings of 25 g IMP dry-cured sausages, up to two DT104 bacteria would occur in each of 19,260 servings.     

A modeling study on the sustainability of a certification-and-monitoring program for paratuberculosis in cattle

Certification-and-monitoring programs for paratuberculosis are based on repetitive herd testing to establish a herd's health status. The available tests have poor sensitivity. Infected but undetected herds may remain among certified "paratuberculosis-free" herds. The objective was to determine if truly free herds acquire a certified status and keep it over time when infected but undetected herds remain. The Dutch program was used as a basis to construct a mechanistic deterministic model of the evolution over 25 years of the number of herds per health status. Three health states for herds were defined: not detected as infected in the certification process to obtain a free status; not detected as infected by any of the repetitive tests for monitoring the certified free status; detected as infected. Among undetected herds, two types were defined: truly free versus undetected but infected. Transitions between states were due to the purchase of an infected animal, infection via the environment, clearance via culling or sales, detection of an infected animal, and certification. A sensitivity analysis was carried out. We showed that--for a 100% specific test only--most of the truly free herds at the beginning of the program got a certified free status and kept it over time. Most infected herds were either detected as infected or cleared. The number of certified truly free herds increased with a decrease in the animal-level prevalence or in the risk of purchasing an infected cattle, for example by restricting purchases to cattle from herds at the highest level of certification.     

The unrecognised French BSE epidemic

In France, implementation of systematic screening programs in 2000, as a complement to the mandatory reporting of animals with clinical signs of BSE (passive surveillance), revealed certain limitations of the mandatory system. Indeed, systematic screening showed that some BSE cases were not detected by the clinical surveillance system, implying considerable BSE case under-reporting throughout the epidemic. As the most likely explanation for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) is exposure to the aetiologic agent of BSE, it is essential to reconstruct the French BSE epidemic pattern accounting for this under-reporting. We estimated age- and year-specific incidence rates of BSE by using a back-calculation method. This approach relies on the principle that the number of clinical BSE cases is the consequence of the number of BSE-infected animals after a known incubation time, defined as the time between infection and clinical onset. We generalized this model to take into account epidemiological characteristics of BSE, such as French cattle mortality, BSE case reporting probability, and age-dependent susceptibility and/or exposure to the BSE agent. We confirmed that the average BSE incubation period is five years and that the peak risk of bovine infection occurs between 6 and 12 months of age. The results also showed that the proportion of underreporting is the most influential parameter in the model, and that BSE was substantially underreported until rapid tests were introduced. Indeed, only 103 BSE cases were detected by passive surveillance up to June 2000, while we estimated that there was 301 200 (95% confidence interval (CI) [27 600-837 600]) cattle infected by the BSE agent. Despite uncertainty over the beginning of the epidemic, we showed that the French BSE epidemic in the late 1980s was completely undetected, and only the second wave, after 1990, was observed.     

Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, R_h (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When R_h > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when R_h < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and R_h at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, R_h was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of R_h was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.