Linking land- and sea-based activities to risk in coastal ecosystems

The emerging science and policy arena of marine ecosystem-based management is beset with the challenging question of how to assess the urgency of problems influencing different ecosystem components. In this paper, we introduce a synthetic and efficient framework to identify land- or sea-based activities that pose the greatest risk to valued members of marine ecosystems, including mammals, fishes, and invertebrates. Ecosystem-based risk is scored along two axes of information: the exposure of a population to an activity, and the sensitivity of the population to that activity, given a particular level of exposure. Risk is illustrated in a variety of ways, including two-dimensional contour plots and maps showing regional variation in risk. We apply this risk assessment framework to regional populations of indicator species in Puget Sound, WA, USA. This case study provides insight into how risk varies for particular activity–species combinations, and, because it is applied to indicator species, it also provides an estimate of how different activities influence risk to overall ecosystem structure and function. More generally, the risk assessment approach highlights the linkages between land-based activities and risk to marine species and can be used to evaluate the potential impacts of a diversity of human activities on coastal oceans. The framework is scalable, transparent, and repeatable and can be used now to facilitate the implementation of ecosystem-based management, including integrated ecosystem assessments and coastal and marine spatial planning.     

昌黎黄金海岸国家级自然保护区土地利用生态风险评价

根据2010年昌黎黄金海岸国家级自然保护区遥感影像图、实地调查及资料收集,应用相对风险模型(relative risk model,RRM)对保护区进行了生态风险评价.基于该模型的评价可得到一种相对风险关系,适用于区域内不同评价小区间生态风险程度比较.为比较保护区内各部分的相对风险关系,在风险评价过程中依据保护区功能分区,将生态风险小区确定为核心区、缓冲区、七里海实验区、滦河口实验区和赤洋口实验区,与此同时将人为开发引起生态压力的风险源确定为养殖用地、人工岸线、建筑用地、旅游人数、公路沟渠和农业用地,通过风险源、生境、风险暴露与生态受体响应模型的建立与数据计算,得到了5个生态风险小区和6类风险源各自的相对风险值.结果表明,3个实验区的生态风险值均较高,且高于缓冲区和核心区,不利于保护区生态环境协调平稳和可持续发展.养殖用地给保护区带来的生态风险压力最大,是保护区生态安全最主要的威胁因素.     

A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing

Fishing has become a major conservation threat to marine fishes. Effective conservation of threatened species requires timely identification of vulnerable species. However, evaluation of extinction risk using conventional methods is difficult for the majority of fish species because the population data normally required by such methods are unavailable. This paper presents a fuzzy expert system that integrates life history and ecological characteristics of marine fishes to estimate their intrinsic vulnerability to fishing. We extract heuristic rules (expressed in IF-THEN clauses) from published literature describing known relationships between biological characteristics and vulnerability. Input and output variables are defined by fuzzy sets which deal explicitly with the uncertainty associated with qualitative knowledge. Conclusions from different lines of evidence are combined through fuzzy inference and defuzzification processes. Our fuzzy system provides vulnerability estimates that correlate with observed declines more closely than previous methods, and has advantages in flexibility of input data requirements, in the explicit representation of uncertainty, and in the ease of incorporating new knowledge. This fuzzy expert system can be used as a decision support tool in fishery management and marine conservation planning.     

The effects of including marine ecological values in terrestrial reserve planning for a forest-nesting seabird

Theoretical advances in systematic reserve design aim to promote the efficient use of limited conservation resources and to increase the likelihood that reserve networks enhance the persistence of valued species and ecosystems. However, these methods have rarely been applied to species that rely on spatially disjunct habitats. We used the marbled murrelet, a seabird that requires old-growth forest in which to nest and high quality marine habitats in which to forage, as a case study to explore methods of incorporating multiple ecological values into single species spatial reserve design. Specifically, we used the cost function in MARXAN to include the ecological value of marine habitats while identifying spatial solutions for terrestrial nesting habitat reserves. Including marine values influenced terrestrial reserve designs most when terrestrial habitat targets were low and little or none of the target was represented in pre-existing protected areas. Our results suggest that including marine values in the planning process will influence marbled murrelet terrestrial reserve designs most where substantial terrestrial nesting habitat still exists, where new reserves are relatively unconstrained by pre-existing reserves, or when conservation resources only allow the protection of a small fraction of available habitat. This paper presents a novel framework for incorporating multiple measures of ecological value in the spatial reserve design process and should be particularly useful for species that rely on multiple habitats during their life cycle.     

Incorporating ontogenetic dispersal, ecological processes and conservation zoning into reserve design

Computational methods for marine reserve design are frequently used as decision-support tools for the identification of conservation areas. Most reserve-selection algorithms minimise the cost of the reserve system whilst aiming to meet specified biodiversity objectives. Here, we extend a widely-used selection algorithm, Marxan, to incorporate several important considerations related to biodiversity processes and management. First we relax the scorched earth assumption to allow conservation features in non-reserve zones to contribute explicitly to conservation objectives. To achieve this, we generate conservation targets at landscape scales rather than focusing purely on the representation of features within reserves. Second, we develop the notion of spatial dependencies further to incorporate spatial heterogeneity in the value of individual conservation features such as habitat types. We use the example of ontogenetic migrations of fish from mangroves to coral reefs because it nicely demonstrates how spatial ecological processes generate predictable heterogeneity in habitat value that should be considered in the reserve design process. Lastly, we show how habitat value can be disaggregated into ecosystem processes and services. Using a case study for the Belize Barrier Reef we compare reserve networks generated using our new approach with the results of traditional analyses. Consideration of the contribution of different protection zones, connectivity among habitats and more complex management goals resulted in up to a 52% increase in the mean biomass of commercially and ecologically-important fish species represented in the landscape. Our approach strengthens the ecological basis of reserve-design algorithms and might facilitate the uptake of ecosystem-based management into reserve design.     

Linking spatial metrics and fish catch reveals the importance of coastal wetland connectivity to inshore fisheries in Queensland, Australia

Many commercially important fish species use coastal marine environments such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds. The ecological importance of spatially connected habitats to conservation is well established for terrestrial environments. However, few studies have applied spatial metrics, including measures of structural connectivity to marine environments. We examined the relationship between catch-per-unit-effort for commercially caught species and the spatial patterning of mapped benthic habitat types along the coast of Queensland, Australia in their dominant fisheries (trawl, line, net or pot fisheries). We quantified the composition and spatial configuration of seascapes and calculated coastline length, number of estuaries, river length and geographical latitude using 12 metrics within ninety 30-nautical-mile grid cells, which supported inshore fish catch data from 21 species groups. Multiple regression analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling plots indicated that ecological linkages may exist between geomorphic coastal features and nearshore fisheries production for a number of species groups. Connectivity indices for mangroves, salt marsh and channels explained the largest proportion (30–70%), suggesting the importance of connected tidal wetlands for fisheries. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) catch-per-unit-effort was best explained by the number of wetland patches, mangrove connectivity and wetland connectivity (r² = 0.38, n = 28). Catch-per-unit-effort for the Gulf of Carpentaria was highly correlated with wetland connectivity, the number of estuaries and seagrass patch density (r = 0.57, n = 29). The findings could guide the spatial design of marine protected area networks to maintain ecosystem services and avoid potential disruption to connectivity caused by habitat removal or modification. Application of the same approach to analyses of finer spatial scales would enable catch information to be related to particular estuarine habitats and provide better understanding of the importance of habitat connectivity for fisheries.     

Risk assessment: Simultaneously prioritizing the control of invasive plant species and the conservation of rare plant species

Although the consequences of the homogenization of Earth’s flora and fauna are not well understood, experts agree that biological invasions pose hazards to rare species. As a result, there is a need for a systematic approach to assess risks from invasive species. The Relative Risk Model can be adapted to assess combinations of rare species, invasive species, and regions. It also can be applied to different taxonomic groups and at different spatial scales. This flexibility makes it a promising tool for invasive species risk assessment. We used the Relative Risk Model to quantify risks posed to endangered plant species by non-indigenous invasive plant species in Nebraska.We modeled the suitable habitats for eight invasive plant species, which we subsequently compared to documented occurrences of endangered plant species in a Geographic Information System. We combined this data with an assessment of the ecological impacts of each invasive species in a regional risk assessment framework to simultaneously calculate relative risk scores for invasive plant species, imperiled plant species, and subregions. We assessed uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations.The results of this assessment are discrete values indicating the relative threat posed by invasive species to rare species, the relative risk posed to the rare species, and the relative risk in subregions. Results indicate that the invasive species Elaeagnus angustifolia and Rhamnus cathartica pose the greatest risks to endangered plants in Nebraska. The rare species Panax quinquefolius and the subregion Western Corn Belt Plains show the highest risk scores.     

Towards a spatially explicit risk assessment for marine management: Assessing the vulnerability of fish to aggregate extraction

Management of human activities in the marine environment increasingly requires spatially explicit risk assessments that link the occurrence and magnitude of a pressure to information on the sensitivity of the environment. We developed a marine spatial risk assessment framework for the UK continental shelf assessing the vulnerability of 11 fish and shellfish species to aggregate extraction. We calculated a sensitivity index (SI) using life-history characteristics and modelled species distributions on the UK shelf using long-term monitoring data and indicator kriging. Merging sensitivity indices and predicted species distributions allowed us to map the sensitivity of the selected fish to aggregate extraction. The robustness of the sensitivity map was affected primarily by widespread species with a low to medium level of sensitivity, while highly sensitive species with more restricted distributions had a limited effect on the overall sensitivity. The highest sensitivity in the case study occurred in coastal regions, and where nursery and spawning areas of four important commercial species occur. To test the framework, we overlaid the estimated sensitivity map with the occurrence of aggregate extraction activity in inshore waters, including sediment plume estimations, to describe species vulnerability to dredging. We conclude that our spatially explicit risk assessment framework can be applied to other ecosystem components and pressures at different spatial scales and it is therefore a promising tool that can support the sustainable development of marine spatial plans.     

弹尾目昆虫在土壤重金属污染生态风险评估中的应用

土壤弹尾目昆虫作为无脊椎动物和中型土壤动物的典型代表,其具有丰富的种类和巨大的生物量,在重金属污染环境评估中具有十分重要的地位和独特的优势。本文简要概述弹尾目昆虫在污染土壤生态风险评估中、生态毒理学研究以及其他相关生物标志物研究上的一些方法体系及检测主要指标参数（群落结构,种群特征,生存率,生长率,繁殖率,金属硫蛋白和酶活指标）。最后对弹尾目昆虫在重金属污染土壤生态风险评估应用中目前存在的一些问题和应用前景进行了分析讨论。     

大亚湾海洋牧场低碳渔业生产效果评价

以基于人工鱼礁为构建主体的大亚湾海洋牧场为研究实例,以2007年4月和2009年5月调查数据为基础,研究了海洋牧场在资源养护和提高海域碳汇能力等方面的作用。结果表明,人工鱼礁型海洋牧场建设提高了海域浮游生物和底栖生物的栖息密度以及渔业资源的数量和质量,底栖生物和游泳生物的生物多样性指数增加,渔业资源优势种中的优质经济鱼类的数量增加。根据海域叶绿素浓度的提高进行计算,海洋牧场建设使海域碳汇增加了937.40kgC,相当于3.44tCO2。如果同时考虑通过渔业生物收获从海域中移出碳而增加的海域碳汇能力,则其起到的海域碳增汇能力将更高。本研究的结果表明,海洋牧场是一种环境友好型、可持续发展的低碳渔业生产模式,有利于水生生物资源养护和增殖,也是生物碳汇扩增的科学途径。     

不同模型在渔业CPUE标准化中的比较分析

为了提高渔业数据单位捕捞努力量渔获量（catch per unite of effort,CPUE）标准化数据的质量和模型连续稳定预测能力,该文采用人工神经网络（artificial neural network,ANN）、回归树（regression trees,RT）、随机森林（random forest,RF）和支持向量机（support vector machine,SVM）等机器学习方法和传统的广义线性模型（generalized linear model,GLM）等方法,对2000－2013年大西洋大眼金枪鱼（Thunnus obesus）延绳钓CPUE数据进行标准化。采用平均绝对误差、平均均方误差、3种相关系数（Pearson's,Kendall's和Spearman's）和标准化均方误差等评价指标对不同模型标准化结果进行对比,寻找较优的标准化方法。研究结果表明,在验证数据集SVM方法得到的3种相关系数（0.596,0473和0.632）和RF（0.623,0.456,0.621）相似,高于RT(0.516,0.432和0.586)、ANN(0.428,0.249和0.365)和GLM(0.199,0.106和0.159)。SVM预测的均方误差（11.25）、平均绝对误差（2.107）和标准化均方误差（0.652）略低于RF（11.655,2.377和0.661）,明显低于RT（14.999,2.434和0.801）、ANN(16.692,2.883和0.823)和GLM（16.517,2.777和0.993）。各项指标揭示SVM方法要优于其他4种方法,RF次之,GLM计算结果在所有方法中最差,不适合渔业数据CPUE标准化。SVM和RF方法应该被优先考虑用于渔业数据CPUE标准化。研究结果为渔业资源管理和保护提供更好的支持。     

长江口牡蛎礁恢复及碳汇潜力评估

牡蛎礁是温带河口和滨海区一种特殊的海洋生境,它具有生物生产、净化水体、提供鱼类生境、维持生物多样性和防止海岸侵蚀等重要功能,根据对长江口牡蛎礁恢复工程的跟踪监测结果,分析和评估该人工牡蛎礁恢复及碳汇潜力。研究结果表明,在2004—2010年期间,该人工牡蛎礁牡蛎种群的增长迅速,2005年牡蛎平均密度和生物量达到最高,以后各年牡蛎生长过程中存在＂自疏＂现象和死亡,总密度下降,但个体增长。牡蛎礁上大型底栖动物物种数、总密度和总生物量呈快速的增长趋势,2004年至2010年共出现大型底栖动物47种,至2010年8月其密度和生物量分别达到941ind·m-2和44.51g·m-2。该人工牡蛎礁具有强大的固碳能力,通过牡蛎的钙化过程,单位面积年固碳量为2.70kg·m-2,年平均固定碳量达3.33×104t,直接产生的年平均固碳效益达837万元,相当于营造1110hm2热带森林。     

Breeding habitat preferences of 15 bird species on south-western Finnish archipelago coast: Applicability of digital spatial data archives to habitat assessment

Knowledge about the importance of physical habitat characteristics to the breeding site selection of birds is a prerequisite for understanding their breeding habitat ecology and distribution, as well as managing their habitats. Geographical information systems (GIS) and existing digital data archives provide new possibilities for the quantitative and cost-effective assessment of coastal breeding habitats of birds. We tested the applicability of GIS and digital data archives for the analysis of coastal bird habitats by conducting a multivariate analysis on the relationship between physical island characteristics and the breeding site selection of 15 species of ducks, waders, larids and alcids in 2001-2005 in the fragmented archipelago coast of south-western Finland. We used GIS and environmental databases containing shoreline, bathymetry and elevation data to calculate five physical parameters for 71 small islands and their vicinity. Island area was generally the most important factor determining the presence of the species, but also water depth, shore openness, and island elevation were important for some species. The differences and similarities in habitat preferences within and between species groups seem to reflect the breeding habitat ecology of the species. GIS and spatial data archives are becoming increasingly valuable for research and development, as well as administrative tasks. Our results indicate that physical island characteristics affect the breeding site selection and the distribution of our target species, and that GIS and digital data archives provide applicable information on the breeding habitats of coastal birds and thus function as a tool for conservation and management.     

Habitat suitability models of saproxylic red-listed boreal forest species in long-term matrix management: Cost-effective measures for multi-species conservation

Understanding of how a large landscape or network of conservation areas and habitats of red-listed species change in time is an important topic when addressing the temporal interplay between protected areas and matrix. We developed models of habitat suitability indices (HSI) for saproxylic red-listed invertebrate and fungal species, accounting for roughly 70% of all red-listed boreal forest species of the study area in eastern Finland. By using a forestry planning program that incorporates various optimisation methods we analysed trade-offs between timber production and amount of habitats of saproxylic red-listed species within a 60-year period. We also produced production possibility frontiers that show how to increase quality of the matrix with least costs. Moreover, we analysed how habitat suitability criteria used in optimisations affect the area of different habitat quality classes.

Our analysis shows that by adopting HSI models in long-term matrix management, it is possible to increase habitats for several red-listed species without substantial losses in timber production. The increase in habitat area is achieved mainly by decreasing the area that is thinned compared to intensive timber production plan. In the long term, this seems to be a novel cost-effective method to increase the quality of the matrix for red-listed saproxylic species. However, the selected optimisation method and the criteria or specification of the management objective for red-listed forest species have a strong effect on results when HSI models are used in conservation planning. Therefore any practical application must be performed with great care.     

基于GIS的北京地区生态风险评价

生态风险评价是目前环境科学领域的研究重点,而水土流失问题是造成生态风险的主要因素.以生态风险评估理论研究为基础,将该体系按照生态危险性、生态重要性和生态易损性3部分进行分析,以北京市的遥感影像为数据源,同时结合GIS手段,选取多指标,综合分析北京生态风险等级分布,并对各指标因素进行打分,最终得到北京地区生态风险评估图.结果表明:在人口密集区域,由于其与人类活动息息相关,有较高的生态风险等级;总体上看,北京山区北部的生态风险等级要高于南部,西部要高于东部;具有相同生态风险等级的各区域主要风险源不同,但总体上相近地区的主要风险源相同.基于早期的生态风险评估理论,将水土流失问题作为研究重点,克服传统的单因子评价、综合指数评价和生态风险指数评价的不足,构建一种新的生态风险评估方法,为生态风险评估提供参考依据.     

Ecological standards for eutrophication and desiccation: Perspectives for a risk assessment

This paper describes an assessment of ecological standards for eutrophication and desiccation using the ecotoxicological approach of standard setting. In ecotoxicological risk assessment single-species toxicity data, such as No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC), are used to extrapolate maximum tolerable concentrations (MTC) which protect 95% of the ecosystem's species. In our approach single-species data consist of the species-response function for both nutrient availability and soil moisture. These data were used to calculate the maximum levels at which 95% of the plant species are protected. A case study, using data on 275 plant species of usable grasslands in the province of South Holland, has been carried out. Ecological standards are calculated for maximum nitrogen load and changes in groundwater level. The influence of nitrogen limitation and moisture shortage on the 95% species protection level is considered. Differences in methodology between our approach and the assessment of ecological standards for micro-pollutants and critical loads are evaluated.     

台湾溪流生态工法的研究综述

 成功的生态工法,需要与生态原理相调合的设计方法论;近年来,台湾溪流整治工法逐渐尝试不同方式,亦考虑当地生态环境及水中栖息生物。在诸多案例中,有些堆石护岸工法虽已达生态保育目的,但一经台风或豪雨,常造成严重之冲蚀或破坏;所以在溪流整治时,必须充分了解溪流特性,并经审慎评估后,以最佳施工方法及生态观念相结合,建立适合台湾溪流之生态工法。     

Development of an adaptive marine ecosystem management and co-management plan at the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site

The Marine Management Plan for the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site, Japan, provides a case study for adaptive marine ecosystem management and co-management of coastal fisheries. Shiretoko was the third World Natural Heritage Site registered in Japan and earned this title because of its (i) formation of seasonal sea ice at some of the lowest latitudes in the world, (ii) high biodiversity, and (iii) many globally threatened species. The natural resource management plan of the Shiretoko site is characterized by transparency and consensus building, because (i) UNESCO and IUCN require that the plan be sustainable and (ii) the Government of Japan has guaranteed local fisheries that there will be no additional regulations included in the plan. The Marine Management Plan describes which species and factors are monitored, how these data are evaluated, and how the benchmarks specified by ecosystem management are determined. The plan will provide a valuable example for the establishment of “environment-friendly fisheries” in Japan and other countries, because it includes voluntary activities by resource users that are suitable for use in a local context, flexible to ecological/social fluctuations, and efficiently implemented through increased legitimacy and compliance. This approach is appropriate for coastal communities where a large number of small-scale fishers catch a variety of species using various types of gear. We develop a method to evaluate fisheries integrity by-catch and yield data.     

Evidence of fishery depletions and shifting cognitive baselines in Eastern Indonesia

We analyzed fisher interview data collected in the Raja Ampat archipelago of Eastern Indonesia to demonstrate a perceived decline in the abundance of living marine resources targeted by commercial and artisanal fisheries. The decline appeared ubiquitous among all tested species and a clear trend emerged in which older fishers recall greater past abundance than younger fishers. This provides evidence for the shifting baseline syndrome, a dangerous cognitive condition in which each generation of fishery stakeholders accepts a lower standard of resource abundance as normal. We used a fuzzy expert system to standardize and quantify the anecdotal evidence, and combine it with additional depletion indicators to produce a decadal time series of resource abundance from 1970 to present. Using governmental catch-per-unit-effort data from more recent years we hindcasted to establish an absolute scale with which to interpret the perceived decline. The interview information suggested that some exploited species may have declined by as much as an order of magnitude since 1970.     

生物多样性保护的区域生态安全格局评价手段--GAP分析

GAP分析是用来判别生物多样性保护的空白、遗漏区域(“gaps”)和需要采取保护行动的地区(conservation gap),它是一种评估区域生物多样性所有成分所处保护地位、被保护程度等的科学方法。强调最大限度地保护生物多样性的先决条件是通过构建保护区网络,不仅仅考虑生物多样性最高地区,应该使本地种和生态系统都得到保护。区域生态安全格局的评价不仅要考虑生物及其生境的保护,而且,更要考虑受损生态系统和破坏景观的恢复,即不仅考虑Conservation G ap,也要考虑R estoration G ap。因而,改进GAP方法可用于生态安全格局的分析与评价,且有望成为重要的研究手段。