风险视角下的动态信任关系模型

对风险问题的准确把握,是保证信任决策科学性的关键。针对目前在动态信任关系研究中对信任与风险本质关系理解不够和研究的不足,提出了风险视角下的信任关系理论模型和决策模型,详细分析并给出了信任与风险,以及信任决策与风险决策的本质关系,认为信任是风险的另一种表达形式,信任决策就是风险决策。通过对信任、风险和可信决策三者为一体的安全决策过程的分析,增强了安全决策的科学性,使得安全决策更加理性、全面和客观。     

ASP Platform of Networked Sale and Customization System for Small-and-medium Enterprises

Aiming at the problems in the development and implementation of Networked Sale and Customization system by small-and-medium enterprises, the study on ASP development supporting Platform of Networked sale and Customization system for small-and-medium enterprises has been done. The whole frame of ASP development supporting Platform of Networked Sale and Customization system for small-and-medium enterprises was proposed. Then a series of function modules of this platform was designed. At last, ASP-based service model and development service workflow for small-and-medium enterprises was created. And, this platform has been applied in dozens of enterprises.     

低碳视角下乡村旅游决策行为实证研究——基于北京市300位游客的调查数据

全球低碳经济背景下,乡村旅游低碳化发展是必然趋势。而旅游者决策行为直接决定其出行的选择,因而对乡村旅游者低碳旅游决策行为的研究,将对乡村旅游接待地和旅游企业的经营发展提供重要的参考依据。笔者以推拉模型为基础,将游客低碳乡村旅游决策行为影响因素归为推和拉2类,依据对北京市300位游客的调查,构建二元Logistic模型对其影响因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明：除了游客学历、收入等客观因素外,还受到游客的出游经验、所持低碳乡村旅游态度、低碳乡村旅游感知价值、乡村旅游目的地特色等方面的显著影响,并提出了低碳经济背景下推动乡村旅游转型升级的相关政策建议。     

Application of the Forecasting Model of Exponential Smoothing to the Forecast of the Coal Wastage in Chongqing

The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is a valid method in forecasting and decision-making.Based on the practical datas and according to the characteristic(linearity trend) of the fact coal wastage in Chongqing(recently),the forecasting model of twice exponential smoothing model is set up and the model is applied to forecast the caol wastage in Chongqing.The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little and the model may be well applied on the forecast of the coal wastage in Chongqing.It also shows that the decision-making can based on the result well.     

Cost Management of Real Estate Development

After China's entry into WTO, some well-rounded foreign real estate agencies and home financial company have entered into China's real estate market. Encountered with gradually matured market, the real estate enterprises pay more attention to the issue of how to preserve the biggest profit space. In this paper, the cost management will be investigated deeply and related measures will be put forward. This paper follows the principle of standing out the emphasis and exploring deeply the essential problem. With the theory-coupled-examples method, the fundamentality of cost management in decision-making and programming design stage is studied. The object system method is used to evaluate the quality of the decision-making and using compound engineering designing principle to manage the cost. The results prove that the decision-making as well as programming design stage is the key of cost management, which should be taken seriously by China's real estate enterprises.     

Optimize graphics reasoning technlogy and its application on sheep diseases curing expert system

Expert system is a program system that prossesses special knowledge and esperience, is reasoning solving process which simulates experts according to special konwledge and espericence with artificial intelligence. This paper discusses the decision-making technology and method of expert system based diagram reasoning, the optimized diagram reasoning is also pointed out. The development technology and method of sheep diseases curing system is expatiated.     

Networked Customization System of Electrical Equipments Based on SOAP

With the increasing of customers'customized requirements,networked customization becomes one of the important development directions of Networked Manufacturing.According to the characteristics of electrical equipments,a kind of Networked Customization System for Electrical Equipments Based on SOAP is set up.And its architecture,running mode and some key technologies for realizing this system are researched.Finally,an applied case of Networked Customization System for Electrical Equipments Based on SOAP in Chongqing is introduced to verify its validity and practicability.     

Pondering on Public Participation in Decision - Making of Public Projects

The necessity of the public's participation in decision-making of public projects,the functions of the public's participation,and the current characteristics of the public's participation in China were discussed firstly.Then,three suggestions are brought forward to improve the public participation in decision-making of public projects: the first one is to ensure the legal status of the public's participation,the second is to detail contents of entity and process and the third is to set up the public hearing system of public projects.     

Uncertain reasoning model for the rocket safety decision system

In view of the complexity of the measuring environment and uncertainty of the a prior knowledge for rocket aviation,a rocket safety control system based on uncertainty reasoning is proposed.The uncertain representation and processing of the knowledge in expert systems are established according to the characteristics of the parameters .Following the characteristics of the decision rules and decision procudure,the reasoning control strategy is studied and the method for conflict resolving strategy and searching strategy is proposed.Then,the uncertain matching rules and the feasibility degree delivering method are expressed,and the decision-making network and the rule-based uncertainty reseaoning model were constructed.Simulation experiments show that this system can acquire the craft launching information quickly and accurately,which greatly improves the reliability and authenticity of safety control decision for rocket aviation,and can control the rocket aviating state effectively.     

Method of Grey Clustering Decision-making to State Assessment of Power Transformer

The assessment of health state of power transformer is a key step to realize Condition-based Maintenance of transformer. Research on health state assessment of transformer has very important actual significance. Transformer can be recognized as a typical grey system. The assessment of its healthy state using grey clustering decision-making method is put forward. The grey classes of transformer are given, the whitenization weight function of grey classes is established, the information involved in assessing the state of transformer is analyzed, and finally steps of state assessment of transformer using grey clustering decision-making are presented. The analysis of actual example demonstrates that the method has provided a new method to assess the health state of transformer.     

Analysis on Location Selection for Real Estate Development Based on Set Theory

In order to increase the early decision-making accuracy of the real estate development and lower the overall risk of real estate investment, this paper explored the locations for projects of real estate development in the aspects of theoretical methods and technical levels. The evaluation system of housing project sites was established. It constructed the set model for real estate development projects and studied the concrete operation of the model in practice with a prac- tical example with the rough set theory. The test results showed that the method can reduce impacts from the experience and subjective awareness of decision-makers and increase the accuracy of location decisions.     

Object-oriented Design of the Intelligent Decision-making System of Rocket Safety Controlling

Because of systemic error in measurement and trajectory track, precision of trajectory parameter is not high and it results in false alarms in the traditional systems. The intelligent decision-making system of rocket safe controlling is built by using object-oriented method. First, the authors analyze and design rocket safety controlling architecture. Then, we study about knowledge expressing and knowledge database by object-oriented technique for the rocket safety controlling. At last, inference procession of the system is discussed. Intelligent decision-making system of rocket safety controlling is accurate, extensible and flexible.     

氮肥决策支持系统(CMDSSN)的研究

CMDSSN是以CERES模型中的氮素平衡子程序为基础,面向对象的程序设计方法为手段建立的辅助用户氮肥决策的计算机软件应用系统。它可以模拟土壤有机物质和作物残留的周转过程,也可以模拟尿素和硝态氮的水解和氮素的损失。在实际生产中可以辅助氮肥施用决策、评价施肥方案、动态显示土壤中硝态氮和铵态氮变化趋势。最后选取了河北农业大学教学试验基地2002-2003年的试验数据对CMDSSN进行了验证。结果表明,系统在模拟土壤硝态氮、铵态氮含量及动态变化方面与实测值拟和较好。     

A Furry Synthetic Evaluation Model in Capital Structure Decisions

This paper analyzes the limitation of regarding the weighted average cost of capital as the optimal standard of capital structure in the traditional capital structure decision-making method, and analyzes the view that the capital structure is affected by many factors,such as earning power, long-term stability of operating, the attitudes held by owners and operators, the attitudes held by creditors and financial risk. With the example, the affecting factors of the capital structure is analyzed. The fuzzy synthetic evaluation model are employed to decision-making of the capital structure. This article also shows the key point of its application.     

A New Quantitative Model for Quoted Price and Decision -Making on Project

In this paper,a new quantitative model for quoted price and decision-making on project has been built by means of Operations of Fuzzy Relations and a fuzzy set theory.The established model has many characters,such as multi-objective for bidding,combined subjective opinion with enlightened logic as well as low leanness on data on past project and competitor.There is a case at the end of this paper showing the whole idea and process of the model.This paper provided a new theory base for the contractors in China.     

内陆盐碱土水盐动态监测调控及决策系统研究

研究内陆盐碱土水盐运移规律,开发水盐调控决策系统,为内陆盐碱土壤水盐合理调控提供理论依据和实用软件。通过对浅层地下水埋深、地下水和土壤水分盐分含量、离子组成等进行多年多点监测和分析,系统研究了盐碱地水盐运移规律,构建了内陆盐碱土水盐调控技术体系,形成了相应的决策系统。结果表明：内陆盐碱土水盐运动主要表现为：积盐、脱盐和相对稳定3种形式的运移和转换,水盐调控的关键是控制和降低积盐高峰期的土壤含盐量。在新疆内陆盐碱区应用后表明,本研究的水盐调控方案有效实现了时空避盐,降低了改良成本,减少了对环境的干扰。本研究采用信息技术开展了内陆盐碱地水盐规律的探索和应用,促进了水盐调控水平的提升。     

A Decision-Making Framework Model of Tool Selection for Green Manufacturing and Its Applications

Pursuing the green manufacturing of products is beneficial to the alleviation of environment burdens. In order to reap such benefits, green manufacturing is involved in every aspect of manufacturing processes.The optimization selection of tool is one of the important approach to improve environmentally performance of cutting machining. The objective factors of decision making problems for traditional tool selection are usually the following, quality and cost.Based on the main idea of environmentally conscious and decision making framework model of green manufacturing proposed by the authors, an multi object decision making model for tool selection is put forward. The objects includes Time(T),Quality (Q),Cost(C), Resources(R) and Environment impact(E), where T aims to minimize the produce time,Q means to maximize the quality,C means to minimize the cost, R means to minimize the consume the resources and E means to minimize the environment impact respectively. Each object is analyzed in detail and integrated the Fuzzy Clustering Analysis Algorithm together with the expert judging method apply to the model too. A case study in which a practical decision making problem for tool selection in green manufacturing machining is analyzed. Successful application of above model shows the model is practical .     

Investigation on Option and Technology Innovation in Decision-Making of Project Investment

By the analysis of the traditional decision-making on project investment, its three difficulties have been found and the assumptions on base of the decision-making are presented. Starting from the assumption, the theory of option and the theory of technology innovation were introduced to revise the traditional decision-making and to endow it with new significance. As a result, the accurate and proper information could be offered to the decision-maker in time.     

基于主成分分析的湖北省洪涝灾害风险评估模型构建

湖北省历年由洪涝灾害造成农作物受损严重,对湖北省进行洪涝风险评估十分必要。本文提出了一种定量化风险评估的模型建立方法,通过多源数据（气象、社会经济、地理特征等数据）提取到15个指标,采取主成分分析法确定各因子对于洪涝灾害的影响权重,建立风险评估模型,并运用地理信息系统(GIS)分析技术得出洪涝灾害风险区划图。在现有评估指标体系的基础上,通过网络爬虫方式获取更能反映防减灾能力的灾害应急指标;采用主成分分析方法降低模型建立中的主观因素。结果表明：（1）通过模型得到降雨与地势为湖北省洪灾发生的最主要因素;（2）湖北省中东部地区多为高风险区,其中东部武汉、黄石等长江干流途经地区处于重风险区;西南部多为中风险区,西北部在全省为低风险区。综上,该模型可为湖北省开展综合减灾、调整区域可持续发展结构、进行准确农情监测提供科学支撑和决策依据,具有重要的科学和实践意义。     

OPTIMAL ACTIVE POWER ADJUSTMEMT OF LARGE HYBRID AC/DC SYSTEMS AFTER OUTAGE CONTINGENCIES WITH THE APPLICATION IN RELIABILITY EVALUATION

An optimal active power adjustment model is deve in this paper for hybrid AC/DC systems after outage contingencies. The objective of the model is to minimize the rejection of load when some elements are out of service, with adjustment strategy approaching practical system operation. A large number of outage contingencies are simulated when the Monte-Carlo Method is emyloyed to evaluate the system reliability, requiring fast calculation of each simulation. The model and computer method proposed in this paper satisfy such a requirment because of the application of concentric relaxation, recursive branch constraint treatment in linear programming and a direct method for B-1 matrix modification. This paper is concerned with the simplified steady state conditions of the system based on DC load-flow, which implies the reliability indices calculated are the measures about static loss of load. The results for a 14-bus hybrid AC/DC system are given.