Regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends in annual growth rates of total personal income and population: 1959-1987

"The annual growth rates of total personal income and population in regional metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas [of the United States] are examined for the period 1959-87, partitioned into sub periods. Statistical testing for equality of rates shows no perceptible differences in growth rates between the major categories, metro and nonmetro. Further, this study uses a model similar in scope to shift-share analysis to test for convergence of the growth rates within these categories. It was found that for both regional nonmetro and metro areas, there was a general trend toward convergence with the exception of the 1970s decade. In that decade total population growth rates in the nonmetro areas and total income and total population growth rates in the metro areas showed significant divergences."     

Long-distance commuting and population change in Georgia, 1960-80

The authors investigate counter-urbanization and population change in Georgia between 1960 and 1980 by examining commuting patterns. "The immediate objective is to construct the entire set of commuting fields of both large metropolitan areas to metropolitan and nonmetropolitan employment centers. We then proceed to the relationship between commuting from nonmetropolitan areas to all levels of Georgia's urban hierarchy and population change in these nonmetropolitan settings. By matching population growth and decline areas with explicit employment ties...the nature of the population changes is much better understood." Data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses for 581 Census County Divisions (CCDs) in Georgia are analyzed. It is concluded that "most nonmetropolitan growth taking place in Georgia is associated with intensification of metropolitan commuting fields along with growth of nonmetropolitan centers and their influence along the very periphery of metropolitan spheres of employment influence. However, a significant share of Georgia's nonmetropolitan population revitalization is explained by growth independent of direct metropolitan influence. It would appear then that nonmetropolitan growth centers are an important part of the basis for population decentralization in Georgia. Metropolitan spill-over alone cannot account for counterurbanization on this portion of the American economic landscape."     

Nonemployment Income and the Economic Base of Michigan Counties: 1959–1986

ABSTRACT Despite the fact that nonemployment income makes up approximately one-third of all personal income, its impact on local area economies has not been closely examined. This study uses Michigan county data to examine the impact of nonemployment income on nonbasic income over a twenty-seven-year period. This impact is compared to the impact of basic income by employing regression analysis to estimate comparative multiplier effects for both types of income. Nonemployment income is found to have a significant impact on nonbasic income, particularly in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan urban counties, where its impact appears to be stronger than that of basic income.     

Restructuring and Well-Being in the Non-Metropolitan Pacific Northwest

This paper shows how social and economic change impact well-being in Pacific Northwest counties from 1970–1990. Economic and social well-being, measured as income growth and low income inequality, are modeled using net migration data and measures of social and economic restructuring. In the 1970s there is an inverse relationship between population growth and income growth, while during both decades the retail sector contributes to income growth. Amenity or urban-adjacent counties show the most growth, in both population and employment, but also have the greatest income inequality. Several factors contributing to income growth also contribute to greater income inequality. Migration flows for each decade also illustrate the associations between restructuring, well-being, and population growth. Populations in counties with net out-migration over both decades are aging, but show greater income growth and lower inequality in the 1970s followed by lower income growth in the 1980s. Net in-migration over both decades is associated with lower income growth and greater inequality in the 1970s, but these counties are substantially better off economically in the 1980s and they maintain a balanced age structure through migration of different age cohorts over the two decades. This research provides needed work on the connections between social and economic change in the context of the Pacific Northwest.     

中国居民收入差距的成因、演进与分解

基于1978-2009年以来的省级面板数据,本文首先利用泰尔指数估计了中国居民收入差距演进趋势,然后按地区结构和城乡结构进行了分解。结果显示,城乡收入差距占据了整体收入差距的70%以上,三大地区间的收入差距虽较为明显,但并没有地区内的收入差距显著。究其原因,中国收入差距的演进除了内在的经济规律使然外,经济政策也有较为明显的影响。因此,加快经济发展、强化农村偏向型的经济政策是缩小收入差距的必然途径。     

Recent Trends in Nonmetropolitan Migration: Toward a New Turnaround?

An attempt is made to review migration trends in the United States over the past 30 years. The emphasis is on changes in migration patterns between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. "Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear."     

Economic heterogeneity within large metropolitan areas

In recent years, research has indicated a trend in the US for the distribution of income to become bimodal, with movement away from a dominant middle class and toward more people being in the upper or lower ends of the income scale. With this trend, an analysis of municipalities would be expected to show frequency distributions for various economic variables that would have widened, become more skewed, and become flattened or U-shaped. Additionally, the mode of distribution would be expected to move toward the lower income end. An analysis of individuals within the rich and poor communities would be expected to show frequency distributions that have narrowed. This study tested the above expectations. The usual measures of skewness and peakedness were used for data analyses, as well as a modified Pearson place. The metropolitan areas sampled were Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angles, and Washington, DC. Changes were looked for in comparing per capita income figures from the US Census for each municipality in the metropolitan areas in 1969,1979, and 1983. For individual municipalities, a sample of 30 Chicago suburbs was used to show income distribution. Results of per capita income in metropolitan areas (except Dallas) for 1969-1979 showed that middle income communities became more dominant, not less; therefore, the poorer communities became richer. The results for 1979-1983 showed that the trend came to a halt. For individual income results, a trend toward greater homogeneity in the 1970s came to a halt in the 1980s and began to reverse itself. For individual municipalities, the larger ones were more heterogeneous. Additionally, those with greater population increases were more homogeneous in income, and those with the highest increases in income tended to be moving toward more homogeneity. The poor communities, therefore, were more income-heterogeneous. A bimodal income distribution does not exist, but some metropolitan areas are moving in that direction.     

Why Is U.S. Poverty Higher in Nonmetropolitan than in Metropolitan Areas?

ABSTRACT In the U.S., people are more likely to be poor if they live in a nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) than in a metropolitan (metro) area. A common explanation for this phenomenon is that nonmetro places offer relatively few economic and social opportunities. This article explores another plausible explanation, asking if the disproportionate poverty in nonmetro areas partly reflects attitudes of people with personal attributes related to poverty: they may be attracted to nonmetro places or otherwise reluctant (or unable) to leave them. To test this hypothesis, data from nine waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) are used to track economic well‐being and nonmetro–metro residential choice among a sample of 2,007 low‐income householders. A series of multivariate regression models are estimated in which the dependent variable is a householder's income to need (adjusted for spatial cost‐of‐housing differences), and regressors are individual attributes, a binary variable for nonmetro residence, and state fixed‐effects. Regression results show that controlling for householder educational attainment reduces the negative association between nonmetro residence and income to need; but controlling for unobserved, time‐invariant heterogeneity via individual fixed‐effects increases the magnitude of this negative association. Study findings thus appear to indicate that enduring nonmetro poverty is explained both by a sorting of low human capital individuals into nonmetro areas and by reduced economic opportunities in nonmetro compared to metro places.     

Convergence Amid Divergence in a Region

The convergence hypothesis from neoclassical growth theory is examined for per capita incomes of counties within a large subnational region, the Great Plans. Convergence of the β and σ varieties are considered. The former describes the tendency for economies with low per capita incomes in an initial period to grow faster than those with higher incomes. The latter describes the tendency for the dispersion of incomes to fall over time and eventually stabilize. Total per capita incomes across the region show a β convergence speed over the past quarter century roughly equal to that found for activity measures in previous analyses of nation groups, continental regions, and states of the U.S. As concerns σ convergence, the dispersion of total per capita incomes in the region stabilized during the past decade. However, when transfer payments and dividends, interest, and rents are deducted from income, β convergence speeds drop markedly and the dispersion of incomes rises over the study period.     

湖南省农村居民收入地区差距演变及其结构分解

农民收入是当前国内研究“三农”问题的热点之一。以湖南省为例,利用Gini系数方法,测度了1993-2008年湖南农村居民收入的地区差距变化,并通过对收入变化对区域差距变化的贡献进行分解,从收入因子的结构效应和集中效应来解释收入变化对区域差距变化的原因：工资性收入是影响农村收入差距格局的最重要因素,表现为1997-2002年间工资性收入的结构变化较快致使收入差距拉大,2002年后区域差距变大则主要是工资性收入的集中性不断增大所致;家庭经营收入在农村居民总收入中的比重下降,但仍是农村居民收入的主要来源,其对收入区域差距影响较小;财产性收入和转移性收入对收入差距格局的贡献虽然不大,但对扩大收入差异的贡献在不断增加,是未来影响农村区域差距变化的重要因素。最后提出了相关建议。     

Persistent Differences in Well-Being Between Appalachian Subregions

ABSTRACT Previously it was reported that regional variations in well-being (poverty, per capita income, and family income) among Appalachian counties did not originate from regional variations in urbanization, but from regional differences in well-being among nonmetropolitan counties. It was argued that southern Appalachian counties had higher levels of well-being at the end of the 1980s because nonmetropolian counties in southern Appalachia experienced greater economic growth during the 1980s than did nonmetropolitan counties in other Appalachian regions. In this paper these data are reanalyzed to test to what extent the original findings are affected by the presence (and failure to control) spatial autocorrelation. Using a spatial lag model it is shown that correcting for spatial autocorrelation statistically altered the original results. However, substantively, the conclusions from the original analysis did not change: regional differences in county well-being in Appalachia are largely the product of regional differences among nonmetropolitan counties, even after correcting the model for spatial autocorrelation.     

Factors and Correlates of Employment Growth in the Canadian Urban System, 1971–1991

The objective of this paper is to examine a number of hypotheses concerning the factors or correlates of employment growth in the Canadian urban system—a set of 152 urban areas having populations of more than ten thousand inhabitants which comprises 77.4 percent of the national population. Do observed patterns of sectoral employment growth obey some sort of underlying logic? More specifically, do the rates of employment growth that are found in individual urban areas vary significantly according to one or more of the following attributes of an urban area: a) the region in which it is located; b) its population size; c) its relative proximity to a major metropolitan area; d) its socioeconomic characteristics? While approaches involving a, e and f yield promising results, it is clear that there are few immutable laws that permit one to predict where employment growth will occur within the urban system. Perhaps the most fundamental characteristic of the analyses conducted involves the instability of the results from one decade to another; one decade’s category of winners is often the other decade’s category of losers.     

粮食主产区利益补偿必要性分析——基于主产区与非主产区粮食生产及经济发展水平差距的视角

为了论证粮食主产区利益补偿的必要性,以河南省和广东省为例,从粮食主产区和非主产区在粮食生产及经济发展水平差距的视角进行了分析。结果表明：粮食主产区对中国粮食安全做出重要贡献,却在农民人均纯收入及地区经济发展水平上与非主产区存在巨大的差距,长此以往,势必影响主产区地方政府推动粮食生产及农民的种粮积极性,威胁国家粮食安全。因此,对粮食主产区进行利益补偿,在合理的成本下,使农民获得与从事其他生产大致相当的平均收益,使主产区能够获得与其对粮食安全贡献相一致的补偿,对保障国家长期粮食安全有着重要意义。     

Spatial Patterns in the Economic Development of the Mountain West

ABSTRACT Many counties in the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are experiencing rapid growth in population and income, even though extractive industries that served historically as their primary economic base are in decline. The purpose of this paper is to establish statistically the spatial determinants of population, employment, and income densities in 86 rural mountain counties and any changes in those determinants between 1985 and 1994. The results of this analysis indicate that densities are oriented to regional metropolitan centers and critical amenities such as ski areas, national parks, and universities or colleges. Negatively sloped density gradients with respect to distance from regional metropolitan centers suggest that the densities of settlement patterns beyond metropolitan boundaries are analogous to those within metropolitan areas relative to urban centers. In short, a tension apparently exists in locational choice; residents of the Mountain West desire to live near the beauties and amenities of the mountain landscape but do not want to entirely sever their urban ties. Because amenities are the primary attraction of mountain counties rather than employment in locationally dependent industries, at least some migrants must have relatively footloose forms of income.     

Resource Flows and the Decomposition of Regional Inequality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Metropolitan Region, 1990–2004

This paper introduces a new way of decomposing regional inequality. It divides the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region into three sets of districts in terms of the urban–rural resource flows: urban, peri‐urban, and peripheral areas. Unlike the administrative divisions, these three sets of districts show how resource flows and agglomerates at the regional level. The paper decomposes regional inequality according to the three sets of districts. The paper's findings show that regional inequality decreased between 1990 and 1994, after which it remained steady. The study, for the first time, brings peri‐urban areas into a regional decomposition analysis, and contributes to the understanding of urban–rural resource flows and inequality changes at the regional level.     

Are We Moving Back to the City? Examining Residential Mobility in the Washington,DC Metropolitan Area

This research assesses the extent to which there is evidence of population re‐centralization or back to the city moves by tracking the historical trend of household and income mobility in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. County‐to‐county migration data and four migration efficiency measures are used to investigate net flows of households and income in the region. The results show a nascent tendency of back to the city movement; however, the redistribution of households and income in the metropolitan area is more complex. While the region's core may be starting to gain households and income, there are still significant flows into the region's most distant suburbs. The results of this research have implications for transportation, housing, and economic development policy making in Washington, DC and other regions. The study also offers a unique example of how to study household and income redistribution within U.S. metropolitan areas.     

Population

The 1990s can be characterised as the decade of migration as far as New Zealand's 20th century population history is concerned. There was the largest decennial net migration gain this century, the largest annual net migration gain since 1875, the largest decennial numerical increase in population since the 1960s, and the largest influx of immigrants from countries in northeast Asia on record. This was a decade when migration flows both in and out of the country attracted considerable public and political comment. In the mid‐1990s it was the ‘Asian invasion’ that was the key migration‐related political issue; in the late 1990s it was the ‘Kiwi exodus’, especially to Australia, that was attracting attention both in New Zealand and Australia. A ‘blip’ in birth rates in the early 1990s also attracted considerable attention from demographers and policy analysts – a short‐lived increase associated with irregularities in New Zealand's population structure as well as the changing patterns of fertility evident in later child bearing. The decade also saw some significant changes in the ethnic composition of the population, as well as debates about socio‐economic ‘gaps’ between some of the major ethnic components.     

中国中部地区农民收入结构及收入增长问题分析

增加农民收入,历来是政府关注的重点。近十几年来,随着改革开放的不断深入,农民的收入不断增加;但是,在农民增加的收入中,其结构却发生了很大的变化。本文以山西省为例,并以山西省1995－2007年数据为样本,对这13年以来山西省农民纯收入增长及其构成变动情况进行了认真分析,提出了促进中部地区农民收入持续增长的对策建议。     

Does Sprawl Induce Affordable Housing?

The costs of sprawl are well documented, but there are fewer studies of its potential benefits. One such benefit is argued to be the facilitation of the filtering process, resulting in a greater quantity of affordable and available housing for low‐income households. While metropolitan area data indicate a positive correlation between sprawl and the supply of affordable housing for very low‐income households, regression analysis does not provide evidence for this hypothesis, after controlling for other metropolitan characteristics. The results put into question the argument that sprawl expands housing opportunities for households of all incomes, specifically those who are the poorest.     

Factors affecting urban-to-rural migration

This study is concerned with the household characteristics of those involved in the population turnaround from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. Its primary objective is to examine empirically the factors affecting the population turnaround and to provide some additional insights into the general directions of this migration trend. Data for the study are taken from a longitudinal nationwide sample survey conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan and involving approximately 6,000 families interviewed annually since 1968.