气象参数对成都地区办公建筑能耗的影响及预测

气象参数是影响建筑热环境和供暖空调能耗的主要因素之一。基于成都地区1971—2000年共30 a的历史观测数据,生成了建筑能耗模拟软件EnergyPlus所需要的逐时气象数据文件。比较分析了该地区30 a干球温度、太阳辐射等各气象参数月均值的变化,模拟分析了该地区建筑的采暖、制冷及总能耗,利用多元回归建立了建筑能耗与气象参数之间的关系式,并检验了该关系式的准确性。结果表明：成都地区办公建筑能耗变化与各气象参数没有呈现明显的规律性;建筑月总能耗与各气象参数呈纯二次多项式关系,月采暖能耗、月制冷能耗与各气象参数呈交叉二项式关系;建筑月能耗回归模型能够较准确地预测建筑月能耗与各气象参数的关系,且月采暖能耗和月制冷能耗回归模型预测的准确性优于月总能耗模型。     

Analysis on Simulation Meteorological Data Under Climate Change

Climate has a determining influence on building energy consumption. Since 1980s, the global climate has appeared excessive warming, which inevitably causes the change of building energy consumption. The climatic simulation was used to forecast meteorological data from 2021 to 2050 for five cities in China. The five cities represent five different climate types in China. According to the Analysis of Energy Efficient Meteorological Year (AEEMY), model of meteorological data for building energy simulation based on TMY2 was presented. At the same time, meteorological data for DOES was also made from 1971 to 2000. A high residential building was respectively simulated in five cities under two kinds of meteorological data by using DOE2 software. The model of simulation was proved by the simulation result.     

The Key Parameters Method of Calculating Geothermal Heat Exchanger Length

The geothermal heat exchanger is the key component of ground coupled heat pump systems. We discuss the key parameters method of calculating geothermal heat exchanger length based on line source theory. Typical meteorological year data is used to determine the hottest month, the coldest month and annual average surface temperature. The building hourly load can be obtained by introducing the concept of equilibrium temperature. The cooling fraction and the heating fraction then can be calculated using building hourly load and performance parameters curve fit of a water source heat pump unit. The method for selecting the hottest and lowest entering fluid temperature and calculating the borehole and ground thermal resistance is given. A vertical U tube heat exchanger length calculation procedure is proposed.     

Constitute of Meteorological Data in Building Energy Analysis

Building energy analysis needs representative yearly meteorological data,the data could be selected from the past years' data according to specific regulation,it can also be produced from the meteorological math model which was built with the past data. A comparison is made between F testing method and AIC criterion method, which leads a result that the F testing method is reasonable. Mixed regression model of thirteen dimensions is established using F testing stepwise method. Test is conducted on independence and distribution of model residuals, and the result shows that the model is successful and more information can be provided for establishing model with dimension number increased. Using the above established model future meteorological data of building energy analysis can be predicted.     

Cluster Analysis of Hourly Usage Ratio of Lighting and Equipments Energy Use in Office Buildings

The hourly usage ratio is very important for lighting and equipment energy predicting of office buildings and energy saving calculation of energy efficient retrofit. 17 office buildings in Chongqing were selected to calculate daily usage ratio by using whole-year electrical consumption data of lighting and equipments energy system. According to the different hourly usage ratio, office buildings have been categorized into two main types by using cluster analysis method. Then, the typical hourly usage ratios of two types of office buildings were calculated.     

2006-2015年吉林省夏季降水日变化特征

根据2006—2015 年逐年6—8 月吉林省52 个气象台站逐时降水资料,运用常规气象统计方法,采用逐时降水量、逐时降水频次、逐时降水强度和不同持续时间降水4 个指标对吉林省降水日变化特征进行研究。结果表明：吉林省夏季降水总量及日数的空间分布与纬度和海拔有关,表现为自南向北递减趋势,降水强度空间分布随海拔升高降水强度减小。吉林省小时降水量、降水频次及降水强度呈双峰型分布,峰值区分别为17:00—19:00、4:00—6:00、17:00—19:00;吉林省夏季持续1~3 h 降水量较大,其次是长持续性降水,持续时间为4~6 h 降水量最小。持续时间为1~3 h 降水量峰值出现在17:00,长持续性降水峰值出现在20:00,持续时间为4~6 h降水量峰值在1:00。     

Improvement of Method in BIN Building Energy Consumption Calculation

The proportion of radiation load through glass windows in building energy analysis is comparatively great;it is regarded as linear relation with temperature in BIN method,which is extremely a rough method.It is not only because the relation between such radiation load and temperature is far from linear relationship,but also there is lack of objective standard for the selection of corresponding representative temperature to the load.To solve this problem,calculating the maximum factor D_(J max) firstly,then get the hourly corresponding relation of load and temperature by multiplying the hourly cool load coefficient.The practical relation of load and temperature could be obtained by counting up the average load to each temperature at each direction;the load calculation method is still simple using a series of statistic data.A comparison has been made between this method and the former one.As it is the real reflection of relation between the temperature and load,the precision of load calculation is enhanced.The process using this method to calculate load for south facing window in Chengdu is given in this paper.     

Annual Energy Consumption and Feasibility Assessment of Ground -Source Heat Pump in Residential Building in Fuzhou City

This paper describes the annual energy consumption and economic assessment of air-source heat pump(ASHP) and ground-source heat pump(GSHP),based on hourly building load of typical house in Fuzhou.Analysis results show that the energy consumption of GSHP is 15% less than that of ASHP through all year,where there is 13% less in summer and 20% less in winter.Although the seasonal energy efficiency ratio of GSHP in Fuzhou is higher than that of ASHP,it has no obvious effect on the energy efficiency as it is in the hot summer and cold winter zone.In comparison with ASHP,the GSHP is not cost-effective.     

盱眙龙虾池塘夏季水温与溶解氧变化特征及预报模型研究

为了进一步提高江苏省夏季虾塘管理水平,减少高温灾害对龙虾产量造成的损失,利用盱眙县龙虾池塘2014年夏季水体溶解氧、pH值、不同层水温逐时观测资料以及对应台站气象数据,对溶解氧、pH值、水温的小时变化、日变化变化特征进行了分析,并建立了基于BP神经网络的逐层水温及溶解氧预报模型。结果表明：夏季较深层的水温均高于气温,10 cm水温的小时变化幅度最剧烈。日最高水温出现的时间依次为：10 cm>30 cm>60 cm>100 cm。气温与水温波动性较为一致,溶解氧的波动与气温呈负相关,pH波动较小。与空气温度相比,不同层水温波动幅度较小,具有一定的滞后效应。相关性分析表明,不同层最高水温最大值与当日最高气温、前1、2、3、4日最高气温具有较好的关联性,其相关系数达到0.8以上,日平均溶解氧含量与当日最高气温、前1日最高气温、100 cm最高水温呈显著的负相关性。日平均溶解氧含量与不同深度最高水温的实测值与模拟值决定系数均达到0.98以上,相对误差不超过1%,具有较高的模拟精度。本研究构建的盱眙龙虾池塘水温、溶解氧预报模型可为龙虾的养殖和气象灾害防御决策提供理论依据。     

Research on Comfort Index of Gan-Lan Dwellings in LongSheng Area of Guangxi Province,Guilin City

The research on architectures with ethnic characteristics increase both domestic and abroad, and one of the important objectives of which is to find whether there is good adaptability between the space and forms of architecture and area climatic conditions, In this paper, through the field measurement of parameters and meteorological data of stilt style architecture of the minorities in Guilin of Guangxi province and ordinary residential building, and using Design-Builder simulation software to model, conducting the CFD simulation, thermal environment inside the building and indoor temperatures of the whole year were obtained, then we calculated that thermal comfort index inside the building for the full year. Comparing the simulation results, we concluded that thermal environment inside the building and thermal comfort index of stilt style architecture significantly outperformed the ordinary ones. Stilt style architectures are more suitable to the climates in Guangxi province. At present, the research of stilt style architecture is still at an early age, and this paper can provide basis for the research on the energy saving technology of stilt style architecture.     

Energy efficiency analysis on intermittent operation based on life cycle cost in the vertical ground source heat pump system

Intermittent operation can affect the heat exchange performance of the vertical ground source heat pump system, thereby affecting life cycle cost (LCC) of the ground source heat pump system. The simulation analysis on the hourly load of an office building is implemented by using the DeST software.The heat exchange model of vertical ground heat exchanger pipe-group and energy consumption model of per part of heat pump system are established. Through the comparison between calculation results of continuous operation for 15 years and calculation results of intermittent operation 15 years of the heat pump system, it can be concluded that the LCC value of intermittent operation decreased by 13.45%,relative to the LCC value of continuous operation, and the average energy saving rate of intermittent operation mode is 17.20% in the entire life cycle. Intermittent operation mode can effectively improve energy efficiency of the ground source heat pump system and reduce the LCC value.     

不同插值方法对精细化预报产品在青岛地区的检验比较

青岛地区农业产业园位置分散在内陆、沿海和山地等多种地形区域,气温差异大,为提高现代农业精细化服务水平,笔者基于国家气象中心下发的全国区域5 km格点气象要素预报产品,采用最近邻域、双线性插值、反距离权重3种插值方法对气温预报产品在青岛地区的适用性进行对比检验。结果表明:内陆地区双线性插值法准确率最高,且平均绝对误差和均方根误差最小。沿海地区采用最近邻域法和反距离权重法均有较好的效果。对于山地,综合考虑准确率、平均绝对误差和均方根误差,较适用反距离权重插值方法。最高气温预报准确率内陆地区高于沿海和山地地区,且在8—10月为准确率最高时期,3—6月准确率相对较低;最低气温则在沿海地区准确率最高,且夏季的准确率明显高于冬季,其在7月准确率最高而1月准确率最低。研究结果为下一步将预报产品插值生成分辨率更细、准确率更高的精细化气象服务产品奠定基础。     

怀化地区强降水过程中的GPS可降水量特征分析

利用改进的天顶静力延迟（ZHD）模型和本地化水汽权重平均温度（Ts）模型反演怀化地区GPS可降水量（GPS-PWV）,并结合自动气象站逐小时资料分析了2017年怀化地区大气水汽变化及汛期14次暴雨以上降水过程的GPS-PWV演变特征。结果表明：GPS-PWV可较好反映怀化地区大气水汽的变化特征。怀化地区可降水量-气压（PWV-P）分布月变化特征明显,冬季PWV较低且变化范围较小,降水发生时气压较夏季平均高14.75 hPa;春季PWV逐步增大,降水发生时气压较冬季有所降低;夏季PWV为全年最高,降水发生时气压则降至全年最低值;秋季PWV-P数据逐渐分散并向可降水量低值区移动,分布情况逐步趋近冬季。2017年汛期怀化地区14次强降水过程中PWV均高于各月均值,最大小时降水量与最大PWV存在较好对应关系;降水开始前,PWV出现较明显上升,且多伴随气压较明显下降,可为局地强降水短临预警提供较好参考。     

自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机的空调负荷预测

为了提高建筑空调负荷的预测精度,在分析空调负荷主要影响因素的基础上提出了一种基于自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机(AWLS-SVM)的建筑空调负荷预测方法。该方法根据预测误差的统计特性,采用基于改进正态分布加权规则,自适应地赋予每个建模样本不同的权值,以克服异常样本点对模型性能的影响。建模过程中采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对模型参数进行优化,以进一步提高模型预测精度。基于DeST模拟数据将AWLS-SVM方法应用于南方地区某办公建筑的逐时空调负荷预测中,并与径向基神经网络(RBFNN)模型、LS-SVM模型及WLS-SVM模型作比较,其平均预测绝对误差分别降低了51.84 %、13.95 %和3.24 %,并进一步基于实际空调负荷数据将该方法应用于另一办公建筑的逐日空调负荷预测中。预测结果表明：AWLS-SVM预测的累积负荷误差为4.56 MW,亦优于其他3类模型,证明了AWLS-SVM具有较高的预测精度和较好的泛化能力,是建筑空调负荷预测的一种有效方法。     

贵州最高气温预报方法研究

最高气温预报一直以来是贵州最为棘手的问题,近年来在国家气象局预报质量通报中,成绩较为靠后。为改变这一现象,笔者基于各预报中心常规气温预报资料及地面观测资料,在贵州境内展开最高气温的多模式集合预报研究。结果表明,多模式集合预报技术有效地改进了预报的准确率,在对2013年1月1日—2014年4月30日120 h的逐24 h预报中,各预报中心的多模式集合预报结果明显降低了预报的均方根误差,效果远优于最好的单个预报中心(ECMWF)和多模式的集合平均,不仅很好地改善了贵州最高气温的预报效果,还给当地预报及决策气象服务提供更有效的参考。     

多伦县花椰菜气候适宜度及灾害防御研究

为了研究花椰菜的气候适宜度及主要气象灾害防御,本研究利用锡林郭勒盟多伦县大北沟镇十五号村、西干沟乡牛眼睛村、蔡木山乡炮台村建立的3个花椰菜大棚基地2020年4月28日-5月31日观测的棚内逐日、逐时平均气温及附近的3个区域站气象资料和多伦县国家基准气候站观测的同时期温度、湿度、日照等资料,利用线性趋势拟合、相关性检验等...     

重庆市风能资源监测及计算分析

为了弄清重庆市风能资源的真实状况,分析地形对风能资源的影响,对重庆市6座专业梯度测风塔连续12个月的测风数据进行审查订正,并结合参证站的测风资料对重庆市风能资源进行计算分析。结果表明：（1）利用气象站测风数据不能准确评估重庆风能资源;（2）重庆具有目前技术水平下可开发的风能资源;（3）风速垂直廓线符合幂指数关系。最终,可以肯定在目前技术条件下,重庆市东北及东南部高山地区存在可开发利用的风能资源。     

石河子垦区蟠桃气候品质评价方法研究

通过建立蟠桃气候品质模型,为开展蟠桃气候品质气象认证和区域优势气候资源开发等提供技术支撑。本文以影响蟠桃品质的气候适宜性、生长期的气象条件、气象灾害及生产管理措施为主要指标,建立蟠桃气候品质评价指标及模型。以模型为基础,结合果园取样检测结果,确定2018年蟠桃气候品质评价结果为优。     

基于灰色关联分析的参考作物腾发量影响因素分析

摘要:本文根据新疆阿克苏地区试验林场Vantage pro2型自动气象站参考作物腾发量及相关影响气象因子观测资料,利用灰色关联度分析法分析了各气象因子对参考作物腾量发的影响程度,结果表明各气象因子对参考作物腾发量的影响程度从大到小的排列顺序依次为太阳辐射量,平均温度,最大温度,最小温度,平均风速及平均相对湿度。建议在设施农业中,可通过对影响参考作物腾发量的主要气象因子进行调控,来间接降低作物需水量,从而达到节约水资源的目的     

Analysis of Building Energy Efficiency Contribution Ratio of Chongqing in "11th Five-Year Plan"

How much contribution ratio of building energy efficiency for Chongqing in "11th Five-Year Plan" to the target of reducing 20% energy consumption per 10,000RMB GDP was the important problem to promoting building energy efficiency work.It has important significance to make target and measure of building energy efficiency.In this paper,the developing situation of building energy consumption,building energy consumption and energy-saving index for Chongqing in "11th Five-Year Plan" were analyzed and calculated through the statistics data published by statutory bodies and pre-setting work scenarios of energy efficiency for Chongqing in "11th Five-Year Plan".Calculating result confirmed that energy efficiency for Chongqing in "11th Five-Year Plan" payed 15.5% contribution ratio to the target of 20% less energy consumption per 10,000RMB GDP till 2010 compared to 2005.