居民消费水平对生活碳排放的门槛效应研究

为进一步促进居民可持续消费、打造低碳生活方式,基于2000~2013年我国29个省区的数据,利用非动态门槛面板模型考察了居民消费水平对生活碳排放影响的门槛效应与地区差异。结果表明:居民消费水平对生活碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应。城镇化水平小于门槛值,居民消费水平会对生活碳排放有较强的增长作用,越过门槛值时,这种增长作用有所减缓;随着居民生活煤炭消费比例的提升,居民消费水平对生活碳排放的增长作用越来越强。另外,居民消费水平对生活碳排放的影响存在显著的地区差异。最后,提出鼓励居民可持续消费和抑制生活碳排放的相关对策建议。     

居民消费碳排放研究—以河南省为例

以河南省为例,利用投入产出法对1997-2010年的居民消费碳排放情况进行了研究,结果表明:就直接能源消费碳排放而言,全省居民人均碳排放水平呈逐年递增趋势;城镇居民人均碳排放水平要稍高于农村,但前者较为稳定,后者增长趋势明显。就间接能源消费碳排放而言,居民消费人均间接碳排放要远高于直接碳排放,增长趋势亦如此,其中电力热力和水的生产供应业、其它行业、机械电子设备制造业和采掘业四个部门的人均碳排放增长较快;城镇居民人均碳排放水平要远高于农村,增长趋势稍高于农村。研究认为,为减少居民消费碳排放,应优化能源供应结构,倡导低碳消费生活。     

北京人口、经济、居民消费与碳排放动态关系研究

基于STIRPAT模型,构建了状态空间模型,定量分析了北京1980-2011年的人口规模、人口城市化结构、居民消费与经济规模四个变量对碳排放随时间变化的动态影响.结果显示:这四个变量对碳排放的变弹性系数均为正数,均促进了碳排放的增加,只是不同时期对碳排放的动态影响程度不同,但近年来均呈现逐渐上升趋势.经济规模对碳排放的弹性系数最大,仍是碳排放主要影响因素;居民消费水平对碳排放的弹性系数波动幅度较大;人口规模与城市化结构对碳排放弹性系数波动幅度较小,影响比较平稳.为了控制和减少碳排放,应提高经济增长质量,鼓励居民绿色消费,合理调控入口规模和提高城市化水平和质量.     

基于广义费雪模型的天津市碳排放影响因素分析

在测算1995至2010年天津市一次能源消费产生的碳排放量基础上,基于广义费雪模型分析了能源结构、能源效率和经济发展因素的变化对碳排放的影响,并利用脱钩指数测算碳排放量和经济发展的脱钩程度,分析天津市的经济发展对能源的依赖程度以及造成的碳排放量变化。研究结果表明:三类一次能源引起的碳排放量总体呈增长趋势,其中煤炭消费产生的碳排放量最多;经济发展因素是天津市碳排放增长的主导因素,对碳排放增长始终起着正向拉动作用;能源效率因素则始终对天津市碳排放增长起着反向抑制作用;能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用有增强趋势,但难以抵消由经济发展拉动的天津市碳排放量增长。     

我国电力能源消费碳排放强度的演变特征及产业间差异性

采用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的碳排放数学模型,根据2001-2010年中国电力能源实物消费量测算碳排放量和碳排放强度,研究电能消费碳排放强度的演变特征和产业间差异性。结果表明:电能消费碳排放总量从2001年0.3035Gt逐年上升至2010年0.7454Gt,平均增长9.99%。碳排放强度从276(kg/万元)波动下降至182kg/万元,平均下降4.42%。第二产业电能消费碳排放量和碳排放强度始终占据主导地位,碳排放量平均增长9.77%,碳排放强度平均下降4.95%;2010年工业部门的电能消费碳排放量为0.5488Gt、占总排放量的73.62%,碳排放强度为341kg/万元。第二产业及其工业部门电能消费碳排放强度明显超过第一、第三产业;但是第三产业碳排放的快速增长值得关注。期望为优化电力能源结构、发展生态产业经济以及制定行业间差异化的碳排放调控政策提供参考。     

省级碳清单不确定性分析——基于陕西省2000-2012年碳排放测算

根据可获得的能源消费量等数据,论述现有三种碳清单测算方法:能源消费计算法,终端能源消费计算法和分部门计算法,同时对分部门中工业过程和废弃物处理碳排放计算提出基于"直接投入材料量"的修正方法,并分别计算陕西省2000-2012年碳排放总量,对比不同方法结果,详细分析清单的不确定性影响因素。结果表明:不同方法计算的碳排放值存在较大差异,分部门计算法充分考虑碳源和具体能源投入从理论上较另外两种方法可靠。数据来源、碳排放系数和分部门计算方法的选择是清单不确定性的主要影响因素。基于"直接投入材料量"修正方法可有效避免数据统计和碳排放系数的不确定性。     

中国电力能源碳排放强度的时空演变及省际间差异性

采用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)《国家温室气体清单指南》碳排放数学模型,测算了2001～2010年中国及各省电力能源消费碳排放量和碳排放强度,研究了省际间碳排放强度时空演变和差异性特征.结果表明:1)全国电能消费碳排放总量从2001年303Mr逐年上升至2010年745Mt,平均年增长9.99％;各省碳排放量呈增长趋势,2010年东部地区五省碳排放属超重型(≥40 Mt);西部省份碳排放速度保持较快增长速度.2)全国电能消费单位GDP碳排放强度从276(kg/万元)下降至182(kg/万元),平均年下降4.42％;西部省份碳强度普遍高于东部发达地区,说明西部经济发展对电能消费碳排放的依赖性强,东部地区电能消费低碳经济格局开始形成.省际间电能消费碳排放强度的差异性与资源禀赋、经济发展、人口状况、消费水平等因素相关,为我国制定差异化的区域节能减排目标和电力产业发展调控政策提供参考.     

能源结构和碳排放约束下中国经济增长”尾效”研究

能源结构和碳排放是制约中国经济增长的主要因素,因此,必须对能源结构和碳排放约束下的中国经济增长发展水平进行研究。文中采用中国1990-2014年样本数据,在经典Romer"尾效"模型的基础上引入能源消费量和碳排放量,放宽"经济规模报酬不变"假定,对能源结构和碳排放同时约束下经济增长"尾效"值进行计算和分析。结果发现:受碳排放量和煤炭消费同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低0.818%;受碳排放量和石油消费同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低1.398%;受碳排放量和天然气同时制约,中国经济增长速度每年将降低1.808%。而且不管有无碳排放约束,能源消费结构的矛盾仍然是制约中国经济增长的主要因素,同时由于碳排放的限制,能源消费结构对于中国经济增长的制约将进一步加强。     

中国省域能源消费碳排放空间依赖及影响因素的空间回归分析

在估算中国大陆30个省区(不包括西藏)1997-2012年能源消费碳排放的基础上,利用空间自相关分析和空间计量模型分析了各省域间碳排放的空间依赖性及其影响因素.研究结果表明:1)中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间依赖性,其空间依赖程度随时间推移不断增强而随距离增加不断衰减.2)LISA分析显示,多数省域碳排放在局部空间上存在”俱乐部”现象,即形成HH型和LL型集聚,各省域碳排放类型在时空演进上表现出一定的路径依赖特征.3)人口规模、人均GDP、能源消费强度对省域碳排放量影响显著,城市化水平对碳排放的正向作用也不容忽视,而产业结构对碳排放并未起到应有的调节作用,回归系数为负但不显著.     

基于IPAT等式的甘肃省能源消费碳排放特征分析及情景预测

认清甘肃省的能源消费及碳排放特征对于实现"节能减排"目标制定具有重要的意义。文中在分析甘肃省1990～2009年能源碳排放量及其构成的基础上,利用IPAT等式分析了能源碳排放量中人类活动的影响,并对甘肃省未来的经济发展与碳排放量进行了情景预测。结果表明:在人口、收入和碳排放强度的共同作用下,2009年的能源碳排放量达到了3684.54×104t,为1990年的2.54倍。能源碳排放量的构成主要取决于能源消费结构的变化,通过能源结构调整促进低碳经济发展,还有巨大的潜力可挖。根据"脱钩"理论分析表明,甘肃省的碳排放还处于弱减物质化阶段,经济发展是以生态环境恶化为代价的,着力引进并发展可再生能源技术,有利于甘肃省实现可持续发展。     

黄土高原表土有机碳和无机碳的空间分布及碳储量

选取位于干旱-半干旱区的黄土高原陕西境内表土样品为研究对象,对其有机碳(Soil organiccarbon,简称SOC)和无机碳的空间分布及陕西省碳储量进行初步研究。结果表明:黄土高原陕西境内有机碳和无机碳的平均值分别为5.41g/kg和17.04g/kg,有机碳的空间分布是自北向南呈现出增加的趋势,这也与所处环境相符,无机碳的空间分布特征沿着纬度呈现自北向南逐渐增加的趋势,特别是北纬36o以北;将每一区域内CaCO3含量的平均值与相对区域的降雨量和温度分别进行一元线性拟合,其拟合系数分别为R=0.338和0.182,碳酸盐含量与降雨量和温度的相关性并不显著。陕西省表土有机碳和无机碳储量分别为0.272Pg和0.856Pg,无机碳储量远大于有机碳储量,这与其所处干旱环境有关。     

Response of soil nitrogen,phosphorous and organic matter to vegetation succession on the Loess Plateau of China

 Revegetation is a traditional practice widely used for soil protection. We evaluated the effect of natural revegetation succession on soil chemical properties and carbon fractions (particulate organic carbon (POC), humus carbon (HS-C), humic acid carbon (HA-C) and fulvic acid carbon (FA-C)) on the Loess Plateau of China. The vegetation types, in order from the shortest to the longest enclosure duration, were: (a) abandoned overgrazed grassland (AbG3; 3 years); (b) Hierochloe odorata Beauv. (HiO7; 7 years); (c) Thymus mongolicus Ronnm (ThM15; 15 years); (d) Artemisia sacrorum Ledeb (AtS25; 25 years); (e) Stipa bungeana Trin Ledeb (StB36; 36 years) and (f) Stipa grandis P. Smirn (StG56; 56 years). The results showed that the concentrations of soil organic carbon, total nitrogen and available phosphorus increased with the increase of restoration time except for ThM15. The concentration of NH₄-N increased in the medium stage of vegetation restoration (for ThM15 and AtS25) and decreased in the later stage (for StB36 and StG56). However, NO₃-N concentration significantly increased in the later stage (for StB36 and StG56). Carbon fractions had a similar increasing trend during natural vegetation restoration. The concentrations of POC, HS-C, FA-C and HA-C accounted for 24.5%–49.1%, 10.6%–15.2%, 5.8%–9.1% and 4.6%–6.1% of total carbon, respectively. For AbG3, the relative changes of POC, HS-C and FA-C were significantly higher than that of total carbon during the process of revegetation restoration. The higher relative increases in POC, HS-C and FA-C confirmed that soil carbon induced by vegetation restoration was sequestrated by higher physical and chemical protection. The increases of soil C fractions could also result in higher ecology function in semiarid grassland ecosystems.     

Soil salinity prediction in the Lower Cheliff plain(Algeria) based on remote sensing and topographic feature analysis

Soil salinity and ground surface morphology in the Lower Cheliff plain(Algeria) can directly or indirectly impact the stability of environments. Soil salinization in this area is a major pedological problem related to several natural factors, and the topography appears to be important in understanding the spatial distribution of soil salinity. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between topographic parameters and soil salinity, giving their role in understanding and estimating the spatial distribution of soil salinity in the Lower Cheliff plain. Two satellite images of Landsat 7 in winter and summer 2013 with reflectance values and the digital elevation model(DEM) were used. We derived the elevation and slope gradient values from the DEM corresponding to the sampling points in the field. We also calculated the vegetation and soil indices(i.e. NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index), RVI(ratio vegetation index), BI(brightness index) and CI(color index)) and soil salinity indices, and analyzed the correlations of soil salinity with topography parameters and the vegetation and soil indices. The results showed that soil salinity had no correlation with slope gradient, while it was significantly correlated with elevation when the EC(electrical conductivity) values were less than 8 d S/m. Also, a good relationship between the spectral bands and measured soil EC was found, leading us to define a new salinity index, i.e. soil adjusted salinity index(SASI). SASI showed a significant correlation with elevation and measured soil EC values. Finally, we developed a multiple linear regression for soil salinity prediction based on elevation and SASI. With the prediction power of 45%, this model is the first one developed for the study area for soil salinity prediction by the combination of remote sensing and topographic feature analysis.     

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of sandy deposits from Gulang county at the southern margin of the Tengger Desert,China

Aeolian deposits from the deserts in northern China have been used for palaeoenvironmental research to understand aeolian sedimentology and its dynamic connection to past climate conditions. The Tengger Desert in China is sensitive to the waxing and waning of the monsoonal system. In response to past climate change, the southern margin of the Tengger Desert has evolved significantly since the last glacial period. However, previous attempts to date aeolian deposits in this region were mainly based on radiocarbon dating, which has problems when applied to aeolian deposits. Moreover, sedimentary records are limited. Accordingly, past aeolian activity in this desert remains poorly understood. In the present study, we dated sand samples from Gulang county at the southern margin of the Tengger Desert using optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) to understand the history of aeolian activity in this region. Our samples represented well-sorted aeolian sands and sandy loess. Aeolian sands are evidence of dune field buildup and sparse vegetation cover whereas sandy loess is evidence of improved stabilization of sand dunes resulting from ameliorated vegetation cover. Certain samples showed a decline in the equivalent dose(De) values when successive integration intervals were applied, which resulted from unstable OSL signals from non-fast components in the initial part of the decay curve. In order to obtain reliable De estimates, we investigated component-resolved and different background subtraction approaches, and compared the resultant De estimates. We adopted the early background subtraction method to derive De values. Luminescence chronologies and sedimentary records indicated that sand dunes accumulation occurred before 10 ka, and sandy loess developed between 9.5 and 7.6 ka when sand dunes were stabilized as a result of increased effective moisture levels. The transition between sand dune mobilization and stabilization emphasizes the significance of an effective moisture threshold in controlling aeolian activity. Mobilization of sand dunes at ~2.3 ka might be related to an increased aridity during the Late Holocene.     

黄土高原子午岭油松林管理方式对黑碳和颗粒有机碳积累的影响

对黄土高原子午岭油松林不同管理方式下土壤的黑碳(BC)、有机碳(POC)和活性有机碳(LOC)的空间分布和积累进行了研究.结果表明,各种管理方式的油松林其POC、LOC和BC由表层至下层均呈显著的降低规律性.各种管理方式油松林0～10cm土层以BC>POC>LOC,10～20 cm土层中,天然油松林和粗放管理型油松林B...     

天山云杉林碳储量研究

以南山林场为例,对天山云杉林碳储量进行研究。结果表明:南山林场的总碳储量为332664.4305t,碳密度为59.5492 tC/hm2,高于全国的平均水平;针叶林碳储量占全林场碳储量的96.16%,而天山云杉的碳储量就占全林场的95.67%;成龄林的碳储量占全林场的95.09%;由此说明天山云杉是该林区碳储量的主要来源,但该林区正处于碳积累速率下降的成熟阶段,要加大对成熟林中幼树更新以及幼龄林的人工抚育的力度。以确保在森林碳储量急剧下降时,幼龄林已成长起来,使该林区的碳储量处于较稳定的状态。     

灌淤土农田土壤有机碳及碳库管理指数对施肥措施的响应

为了探讨施肥对灌淤土水旱轮作农田土壤有机碳和碳库管理指数的影响特征,寻求合适的土壤增碳措施,在宁夏引黄灌区水稻-春小麦-春玉米轮作体系中,通过3 a田间定位试验研究了不施肥(CK)、平衡施用化肥(NPK)、单施有机肥(M)、化肥+有机肥配施(NPK+M)、化肥+玉米秸秆(NPK+S)和农民习惯施肥(CON)6个不同施肥措施对0~20 cm耕层土壤总有机碳、活性有机碳含量及碳库管理指数的影响。结果表明,在同等氮素供应水平下,无论水田或旱地,NPK、M、NPK+M和NPK+S处理都能达到土壤增碳效果,3年的土壤培肥后,其土壤总有机碳和活性有机碳含量分别达10.03~10.60 g·kg~(-1)和3.00~4.35 g·kg~(-1),与试验前(9.92 g·kg~(-1)和2.48g·kg~(-1))相比分别提高了1.2%~6.8%和20.8%~75.2%,M处理显著高于CK。施用有机肥3 a以上,才能显著提高土壤碳库、碳库活度、活度指数和碳库管理指数。因此,从土壤总有机碳及其活性组分提升的角度考虑,应在平衡施用NPK的基础上,提倡水旱轮作农田长期增施有机肥来提高土壤碳库管理指数。     

新疆博斯腾湖湖周水体碳和盐离子的空间分布

以博斯腾湖为研究对象,在大湖区周边及开都河取水样和表层土样,分析湖周水体中颗粒有机碳（POC）和溶解有机碳（DOC）在秋季的空间分布特征及其与周围土壤碳及水体盐离子的关系。结果表明：湖周水体中POC浓度的空间变化较大（0.1~1.2 mg•L^-1）,而DOC浓度的变化较小（8.5~12.3 mg•L^-1）。两者在出湖口和入湖口处的浓度均较低,与开都河的浓度相近。与早期相比,博斯腾湖水中无机碳存在由CO₃ ^2-向HCO₃^-转化的现象。回归分析显示,水体中各形态碳与土壤碳之间没有显著的线性关系,表明水体中碳的含量受周围土壤的影响不大。     

Effects of long-term fertilization on oxidizable organic carbon fractions on the Loess Plateau,China

The effects of long-term fertilization on pools of soil organic carbon(SOC)have been well studied,but limited information is available on the oxidizable organic carbon(OOC)fractions,especially for the Loess Plateau in China.We evaluated the effects of a 15-year fertilization on the OOC fractions(F1,F2,F3 and F4)in the 0–20 and 20–40 cm soil layers in flat farmland under nine treatments(N(nitrogen,urea),P(phosphorus,monocalcium phosphate),M(organic fertilizer,composted sheep manure),N+P(NP),M+N(MN),M+P(MP),M+N+P(MNP),CK(control,no fertilizer)and bare land(BL,no crops or fertilizer)).SOC content increased more markedly in the treatment containing manure than in those with inorganic fertilizers alone.F1,F2,F4 and F3 accounted for 47%,27%,18% and 8% of total organic carbon,respectively.F1 was a more sensitive index than the other C fractions in the sensitivity index(SI)analysis.F1 and F2 were highly correlated with total nitrogen(TN)and available nitrogen(AN),F3 was negatively correlated with p H and F4 was correlated with TN.A cluster analysis showed that the treatments containing manure formed one group,and the other treatments formed another group,which indicated the different effects of fertilization on soil properties.Long-term fertilization with inorganic fertilizer increased the F4 fraction while manure fertilizer not only increased labile fractions(F1)in a short time,but also increased passive fraction(F4)over a longer term.The mixed fertilizer mainly affected F3 fraction.The study demonstrated that manure fertilizer was recommended to use in the farmland on the Loess Plateau for the long-term sustainability of agriculture.     

北京市碳足迹与碳承载力的动态研究

利用1999年～2009年北京市化石能源消费、生物质能利用和特殊工业生产以及各类植被面积数据,通过构建数量模型,分析碳足迹、植被固碳量等指标的动态变化。研究结果表明:北京市碳足迹由1999年的1.4111×108tCO2增加到2009年的1.9945×108tCO2;同期植被固碳量由1.062×107t CO2增加到1.151×107t CO2;碳赤字逐渐由1.3049×108tCO2增大到1.8794×108tCO2;碳足迹密度由85.99tCO2/hm2增大到121.54t CO2/hm2;碳足迹强度持续降低,由6.48tCO2/104元降到1.64tCO2/104元;碳生态压力指数由13.29增大为17.33。碳足迹分析结果反映出北京市在碳循环方面的生态环境压力有持续增大的趋势。