Stratospheric response to trace gas perturbations: changes in ozone and temperature distributions

The stratospheric concentration of trace gases released in the atmosphere as a result of human activities is increasing at a rate of 5 to 8 percent per year in the case of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 1 percent per year in the case of methane (CH(4)), and 0.25 percent per year in the case of nitrous oxide (N(2)O). The amount of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is expected to double before the end of the 21st century. Even if the production of the CFCs remains limited according to the protocol for the protection of the ozone layer signed in September 1987 in Montreal, the abundance of active chlorine (2 parts per billion by volume in the early 1980s) is expected to reach 6 to7 parts per billion by volume by 2050. The impact of these increases on stratospheric temperature and ozone was investigated with a two-dimensional numerical model. The model includes interactive radiation, wave and mean flow dynamics, and 40 trace species. An increase in CFCs caused ozone depletion in the model, with the largest losses near the stratopause and, in the vertical mean, at high latitudes. Increased CO(2) caused ozone amounts to increase through cooling, with the largest increases again near 45 kilometers and at high latitudes. This CO(2)-induced poleward increase reduced the CFC-induced poleward decrease. Poleward and downward ozone transport played a major role in determining the latitudinal variation in column ozone changes.     

Rapid Variations in Atmospheric Methane Concentration During the Past 110,000 Years

A methane record from the GISP2 ice core reveals that millennial-scale variations in atmospheric methane concentration characterized much of the past 110,00 years. As previously observed in a shorter record from central Greenland, abrupt concentration shifts of about 50 to 300 parts per billion by volume were coeval with most of the interstadial warming events (better known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events) recorded in the GISP2 ice core throughout the last glacial period. The magnitude of the rapid concentration shifts varied on a longer time scale in a manner consistent with variations in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which suggests that insolation may have modulated the effects of interstadial climate change on the terrestrial biosphere.     

The seasons, global temperature, and precession

Analysis of instrumental temperature records beginning in 1659 shows that in much of the world the dominant frequency of the seasons is one cycle per anomalistic year (the time from perihelion to perihelion, 365.25964 days), not one cycle per tropical year (the time from equinox to equinox, 365.24220 days), and that the timing of the annual temperature cycle is controlled by perihelion. The assumption that the seasons were timed by the equinoxes has caused many statistical analyses of climate data to be badly biased. Coherence between changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle and those in the average temperature show that between 1854 and 1922 there were small temperature variations, probably of solar origin. Since 1922, the phase of the Northern Hemisphere coherence between these quantities switched from 0 degrees to 180 degrees and implies that solar variability cannot be the sole cause of the increasing temperature over the last century. About 1940, the phase patterns of the previous 300 years began to change and now appear to be changing at an unprecedented rate. The average change in phase is now coherent with the logarithm of atmospheric CO(2) concentration.     

Global trends in total atmospheric ozone

Analyses of the mean monthly global distributions of total ozone for the 13-year period from 1957 through 1970 reveal an upward trend of about 7.5 percent per decade in the Northern Hemisphere and about 2.5 percent per decade in the Southern Hemisphere. The increase seems to have started about March 1961 in the Northern Hemisphere and about September 1961 in the Southern Hemisphere. The cause of these trends is at present unknown.     

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.     

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, obtained from the Dome Concordia, Antarctica, ice core, reveals that an increase of 76 parts per million by volume occurred over a period of 6000 years in four clearly distinguishable intervals. The close correlation between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature indicates that the Southern Ocean played an important role in causing the CO2 increase. However, the similarity of changes in CO2 concentration and variations of atmospheric methane concentration suggests that processes in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere, where the main sources for methane are located, also had substantial effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.     

Evidence for deep magma injection beneath Lake Tahoe, Nevada-California

A deep earthquake swarm in late 2003 at Lake Tahoe, California (Richter magnitude < 2.2; depth of 29 to 33 kilometers), was coeval with a transient displacement of 6 millimeters horizontally outward from the swarm and 8 millimeters upward measured at global positioning system station Slide Mountain (SLID) 18 kilometers to the northeast. During the first 23 days of the swarm, hypocentral depths migrated at a rate of 2.4 millimeters per second up-dip along a 40-square-kilometer structure striking north 30 degrees west and dipping 50 degrees to the northeast. SLID's transient velocity of 20 millimeters per year implies a lower bound of 200 nanostrains per year (parts per billion per year) on local strain rates, an order of magnitude greater than the 1996 to 2003 regional rate. The geodetic displacement is too large to be explained by the elastic strain from the cumulative seismic moment of the sequence, suggesting an aseismic forcing mechanism. Aspects of the swarm and SLID displacements are consistent with lower-crustal magma injection under Lake Tahoe.     

Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages

1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments. 2) Over the frequency range 10(-4) to 10(-5) cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth's solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance. 3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth's axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it. 4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index. 5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic [See table in the PDF file] component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity. 6) It is concluded that changes in the earth's orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages. 7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next sevem thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

Interannual variability of atmospheric methane: possible effects of the el nino--southern oscillation

Nearly continuous measurements at Cape Meares, Oregon, revealed that methane was increasing in the earth's atmosphere and that its concentration varied cyclically with the seasons. After 6 years of measurements, results show that the rate of increase in methane undergoes interannual variations; the most prominent of these coincided with the last major El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, when methane concentrations fell far below expected levels. One of the consequences of the interannual variability is that the long-term rate of increase at Cape Meares is now about 16 parts per billion by volume per year, or about 1 percent annually, which is significantly less than that indicated by the earliest calculations.     

Nonstationary Phase of the Plio-Pleistocene Asian Monsoon

Paleoclimate records indicate that the strength of the Asian summer monsoon is sensitive to orbital forcing at the obliquity and precession periods (41,000 and 23,000 years, respectively) and the extent of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Over the past 2.6 million years, the timing (phase) of strong monsoons has changed by approximately 83 degrees in the precession and approximately 124 degrees in the obliquity bands relative to the phase of maximum global ice volume (inferred from the marine oxygen isotope record). These results suggest that one or both of these systems is nonstationary relative to orbital forcing.     

A coherent signature of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition to remote watersheds of the Northern Hemisphere

Humans have more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen (Nr) added to the biosphere, yet most of what is known about its accumulation and ecological effects is derived from studies of heavily populated regions. Nitrogen (N) stable isotope ratios ((15)N:(14)N) in dated sediments from 25 remote Northern Hemisphere lakes show a coherent signal of an isotopically distinct source of N to ecosystems beginning in 1895 ± 10 years (±1 standard deviation). Initial shifts in N isotope composition recorded in lake sediments coincide with anthropogenic CO(2) emissions but accelerate with widespread industrial Nr production during the past half century. Although current atmospheric Nr deposition rates in remote regions are relatively low, anthropogenic N has probably influenced watershed N budgets across the Northern Hemisphere for over a century.     

Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean

Here we provide global estimates of the seasonal flux of sediment, on a river-by-river basis, under modern and prehuman conditions. Humans have simultaneously increased the sediment transport by global rivers through soil erosion (by 2.3 +/- 0.6 billion metric tons per year), yet reduced the flux of sediment reaching the world's coasts (by 1.4 +/- 0.3 billion metric tons per year) because of retention within reservoirs. Over 100 billion metric tons of sediment and 1 to 3 billion metric tons of carbon are now sequestered in reservoirs constructed largely within the past 50 years. African and Asian rivers carry a greatly reduced sediment load; Indonesian rivers deliver much more sediment to coastal areas.     

Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level

During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.     

Atmospheric CO2 and climate on millennial time scales during the last glacial period

Reconstructions of ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations help us better understand how the global carbon cycle and climate are linked. We compared CO2 variations on millennial time scales between 20,000 and 90,000 years ago with an Antarctic temperature proxy and records of abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature were positively correlated over millennial-scale climate cycles, implying a strong connection to Southern Ocean processes. Evidence from marine sediment proxies indicates that CO2 concentration rose most rapidly when North Atlantic Deep Water shoaled and stratification in the Southern Ocean was reduced. These increases in CO2 concentration occurred during stadial (cold) periods in the Northern Hemisphere, several thousand years before abrupt warming events in Greenland.     

Large variations in Southern Hemisphere biomass burning during the last 650 years

We present a 650-year Antarctic ice core record of concentration and isotopic ratios (δ(13)C and δ(18)O) of atmospheric carbon monoxide. Concentrations decreased by ~25% (14 parts per billion by volume) from the mid-1300s to the 1600s then recovered completely by the late 1800s. δ(13)C and δ(18)O decreased by about 2 and 4 per mil (‰), respectively, from the mid-1300s to the 1600s then increased by about 2.5 and 4‰ by the late 1800s. These observations and isotope mass balance model results imply that large variations in the degree of biomass burning in the Southern Hemisphere occurred during the last 650 years, with a decrease by about 50% in the 1600s, an increase of about 100% by the late 1800s, and another decrease by about 70% from the late 1800s to present day.     

Solubility in water of normal c9 and c10, alkane hydrocarbons

A new method for equilibrating water containing alkane hydrocarbons with a gas phase and analyzing the gas for hydrocarbon content by gas chromatography extends analytical sensitivity to better than 0.1 part per billion. The solubilities at 25 degrees C of the normal C(9) (220 parts per billion) and C(10) (52 parts per billion) alkanes decrease with increasing carbon number. A discontinuity occurs at the normal C(11), alkane, probably because of a change from true solubility (molecular dispersion) to accommodation (aggregation).     

A high-resolution paleoclimate record spanning the past 25,000 years in southern East Africa

High-resolution profiles of the mass accumulation rate of biogenic silica and other geochemical proxies in two piston cores from northern Lake Malawi provide a climate signal for this part of tropical Africa spanning the past 25,000 years. The biogenic silica mass accumulation rate was low during the relatively dry late Pleistocene, when the river flux of silica to the lake was suppressed. Millennial-scale fluctuations, due to upwelling intensity, in the late Pleistocene climate of the Lake Malawi basin appear to have been closely linked to the Northern Hemisphere climate until 11 thousand years ago. Relatively cold conditions in the Northern Hemisphere coincided with more frequent north winds over the Malawi basin, perhaps resulting from a more southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.     

Trends in Stomatal Density and 13C/12C Ratios of Pinus flexilis Needles During Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle

Measurements of stomatal density and delta(13)C of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) needles (leaves) preserved in pack rat middens from the Great Basin reveal shifts in plant physiology and leaf morphology during the last 30,000 years. Sites were selected so as to offset glacial to Holocene climatic differences and thus to isolate the effects of changing atmospheric CO(2) levels. Stomatal density decreased approximately 17 percent and delta(13)C decreased approximately 1.5 per mil during deglaciation from 15,000 to 12,000 years ago, concomitant with a 30 percent increase in atmospheric CO(2). Water-use efficiency increased approximately 15 percent during deglaciation, if temperature and humidity were held constant and the proxy values for CO(2) and delta(13)C of past atmospheres are accurate. The delta(13)C variations may help constrain hypotheses about the redistribution of carbon between the atmosphere and biosphere during the last glacial-interglacial cycle.     

Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the northern hemisphere

Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier; these translate to increasing air temperatures of about 1.2 degrees C per 100 years. Interannual variability in both freeze and breakup dates has increased since 1950. A few longer time series reveal reduced ice cover (a warming trend) beginning as early as the 16th century, with increasing rates of change after about 1850.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and carbon reservoir changes

The net release of CO(2) from the biosphere to the atmosphere between 1850 and 1950 is estimated to amount to 1.2 x 10(9) tons of carbon per year. During this interval, changes in land use reduced the total terrestrial biomass by 7 percent. There has been a smaller reduction in biomass over the last few decades. In the middle 19th century the air had a CO(2) content of approximately 268 parts per millon, and the total increase in atmospheric CO(2) content since 1850 has been 18 percent. Major sinks for fossil fuel CO(2) are the thermocline regions of large oceanic gyres. About 34 percent of the excess CO(2) generated so far is stored in surface and thermocline gyre waters, and 13 percent has been advected into the deep sea. This leaves an airborne fraction of 53 percent.