构建多元化农业风险管理体系的思考

农业是国民经济的基础，也是带有风险性的活体弱质产业。农业风险是指人们在从事生产经营过程中，人类无法把握与不能确定的事故的发生导致损失的不确定性。风险既是客观的又是无形的，具有突发性和多变性，导致了农业风险的多样化。农业风险一般分为自然风险、社会风险和经济风险三类。根据当前我国农业风险的特点，自然风险是影响农业发展的主要因素。     

聚焦实验室生物安全

生物安全，不仅包括现代生物技术开发和应用可能构成的对人类的危险和潜在风险，还应包括威胁人类健康的生物安全，凡属可能直接或间接构成对人类危害的各种生物事件，都属生物安全范畴。     

风险防范之我见

当今世界经济、科技水平快速发展，与此同时，环境风险作为经济以及科技发展的衍生物，也以同样的速度危害着人类的健康与生存环境。本文针对环境风险的所存在的问题，以及建立环境风险防范体系的必要性，提出应对环境风险的措施，对策。     

转基因产品的潜在风险及预防对策

本文从生态环境、人类健康及人类伦理道德观念三个方面探讨了转基因产品存在的潜在风险,并提出了风险规避对策.     

强化动物禽流感的防控 降低人类流感大流行风险

在中国畜牧兽医学会成立70周年庆典暨2006年学术年会上，刘秀梵院士就如何降低人类大流行流感发生风险发表了自己的看法。     

中央农业广播学校节目预报

对动物使用抗菌素仅进行“高”“中”“低”风险评级尚不可能提供足够的信息并做出有益于人类健康的风险管理决策。丹佛科克斯咨询公司风险评估咨询专家托尼科克斯博士建议采用“快速风险评级技术(RRRT)”进行数量分析，该方法提供的信息足以做出理性的风险管理决策，据此做出的决策同时考虑了风险和后果。     

论高校大学生就业风险意识的教育与培养

当前阶段，风险社会已成为人类难以规避的时代境遇。在就业过程中，大学生面临着毕业即失业、陷入传销骗局、签订不平等劳动合同等各种就业风险，给他们的人身、财产、心理和就业机会带来了严峻的挑战。在这一背景下，加强大学生的就业风险意识教育具有极其深刻的现实意义，有利于大学生正确认识风险，保持良好的心态，有利于提升就业能力，推动我国科教兴国人才战略的顺利实施。     

重大疫情应急处理与危机管理

随着人类活动不断拓展、经济全球化发展，使人类时刻面临着诸多现实存在和潜在的各种风险．如突发性事件、重大疾病等．局部危机越来越演变为全局性的重大危机。     

宠物行业亟待规范化管理

近年来，城镇宠物养殖的迅速崛起，丰富了人们生活，促进了相关产业的发展壮大，但也不可避免地引发了伤人、扰民、潜在疫病传播风险、污染环境等社会问题。因此，加强宠物的规范化管理是关系到人类健康的大事，必须引起高度重视。     

研究称猪可感染人类“甲流”

【法新社巴黎7月10日电】德国科学家昨天说，被指认为所谓甲型流感源头的猪也会被人类感染。 他们说，这一发现表示全球甲型H1N1流感又增添了新风险。     

Risk Sensitivity and Hunter Perceptions of Chronic Wasting Disease Risk and Other Hunting,Wildlife, and Health Risks

This article examined relationships among hunter perceptions of personal health risks from chronic wasting disease (CWD), knowledge and information about CWD, and perceptions of other hunting, wildlife, and health risks. Data were obtained from surveys of 2,725 deer and elk hunters in Colorado. Cluster analysis grouped hunters into no (42%), slight (44%), and moderate (14%) risk groups based on perceptions of personal health risks from CWD (e.g., concern about health, become ill from CWD). There were minimal differences among groups in demographics, information sources, and knowledge about CWD. Hunters who perceived higher health risks from CWD (i.e., moderate risk), however, perceived greater risks associated with CWD to other humans, CWD to wildlife, hunting to personal health, other diseases to health, and the future of hunting. These findings illustrated the concept of risk sensitivity where hunters who perceived higher risks from CWD were predisposed to rate all other risks as large.     

Assessment of health risks of large semi-wild herbivores in urbanized areas

The health risks for both domestic animals and humans caused by large herbivores in self-sustaining ecosystems are largely unknown. The aim of this article is to make an inventory of these risks, to explore ways to manage them in practice, and to make recommendations for the quantification of risks. Potential hazards from herbivores in and around Europe are listed using the data of the OIE (Office International des Epizooties). The desired health status and the implementation of control or surveillance measures are important factors when assessing the risks. Results indicate that a regular yearly system of health monitoring of herbivores is necessary. To get more insight into the importance of certain risks (Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis, biodegradation of carrion in the field) epidemiological investigations have to be carried out to assess the risk of transmission in different situations (with or without intervention). Analysing and managing risks enable decision-makers to formulate the conditions for the development of nature reserves. In Europe more has to be done to increase the quality of nature in terms of de-fragmentation and de-isolation, but regulations concerning the health of large herbivores also have to be improved.     

基于统计学视角的饲料企业跨国经营风险评估体系构建

随着饲料企业经营战略的改变与进出口贸易结构的变化,饲料企业面临的挑战与风险只增不减,合理的跨国经营风险评估体系将成为企业规避风险与提高国际竞争力的重要手段。目前饲料企业跨国经营仍然存在诸多问题,并面临资源风险、市场风险、政治风险等多重风险,在此基础上从统计学视角构建饲料企业跨国经营风险评估体系,有助于饲料企业量化自身经营风险,并从树立风险评估及防范意识、完善投资前风险评估、强化经营中风险控制和构建跨国经营风险财务管理策略等方面降低企业面临的跨国经营风险,加快"走出去"步伐,实现国内国外的联动发展。     

Human health hazards associated with the administration of antimicrobials to slaughter animals. Part I. An assessment of the risks of residues of tetracyclines in pork

This article describes the assessment of consumer risks of residues of tetracyclines in slaughter pigs in the Netherlands. The assessed risks were toxic and allergic reactions, and the disturbance of the consumers' intestinal flora. Toxic and allergic reactions in humans and animals have only been observed at therapeutic doses, affecting between an estimated 1 in 5,000 and one 1 in 140,000 individuals exposed. Residues of tetracyclines in pigs are closely associated with treatment with injectable formulations. Established Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) do not reflect actual consumer risks in case a limit is violated incidentally. For example, when the established MRLs for tetracyclines in meat are exceeded with a factor 400, 40,000, and 200,000, respectively, the actual risk of an adverse drug reaction for the consumer following a single consumption of this meat is maximally 1 in 3 million, 1 in 300,000, and 1 in 8,000, respectively. At the current estimated low levels of incidental exposure via pork, the annual risk of negative health effects for a random consumer is estimated at maximally 1 in 33 million. The annual risk that a temporary disturbance of the intestinal flora may also result in a facilitated infection with certain enteropathogens, such as Salmonella spp., is estimated at 1 in 45 million. It is concluded that the current microbiological risks of pork are greater than the risks of residues of tetracyclines as such, and that the control of the microbiological risks of pork should therefore be given first priority.     

Benefits and risks of barefoot harness racing in Standardbred trotters

There is a lack of research on the benefits and risks of shoeing conditions in harness racing. Thus, our objectives were to: (a) investigate whether velocity times (VT; s/km) are affected by racing unshod (N = 76,932 records on 5,247 horses); (b) determine the potential risks of galloping, being penalized, and disqualification when competing unshod (N = 111,755 records on 6,423 horses); and (c) identify additional environmental factors that affect VT and risks. VT was found to be significantly influenced by shoeing condition (e.g., unshod, shod front, shod hind, or fully shod), but also by sex, age, season, track, track condition, start method, start position, distance, and driver‐horse performance level (p < 2e‐16). The risks of galloping and disqualification were significantly influenced by shoeing condition, sex, age, season, track, start method, start position, or driver‐horse performance level (p ≤ .05). Horses racing unshod had 0.7 s/km lower VT than fully shod horses and showed better performance when racing on neutral tracks during the late summer than horses with other shoeing conditions during the same period. However, racing unshod increased the relative risks of galloping and disqualification by 15%–35% in all seasons. Horses shod only on the hind hooves showed better performance than fully shod horses, without higher risks associated with competing unshod.     

论科技风险投资中的风险与防范

科技风险投资在我国投资业中方兴未艾，它在科技成果转化、实现产业化的过程中起着关键性的作用，越来越受到人们的广泛关注。文中分析了科技风险投资中所面临的风险，提出了风险的有价性和规避风险的几种途径，探索建立完善的风险投资体系。     

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes subject to competing risks in veterinary clinical studies

In veterinary medicine, prospective clinical trials are increasingly utilized to address questions regarding effectiveness of therapies and patient prognosis. A large number of these trials involve time-to-event (TTE) endpoints, which require special methods of analysis to handle data in which not all subjects are observed to have the event of interest. Analyses and interpretation of the results can be further complicated when an endpoint of interest is not observed in some patients because they incur a competing risk, such as death from an unrelated cause. Competing risks have been the source of confusion in many epidemiologic analyses leading to the potential for misinterpretation. In this article, we review key considerations for the TTE analysis in the setting of competing risks. We briefly review standard TTE tools, namely Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox regression. In the setting of outcomes with competing risks, we provide guidance on the appropriate analysis techniques, such as cumulative incidence curves, to estimate the risk of an event of interest. We also describe a common pitfall of treating competing risks as censoring in Kaplan–Meier survival curve analysis, which can overestimate the event rate of interest. We describe two common regression methods that examine associated risk factors in the presence of competing risks and highlight the different research questions these methods address. This article provides an introductory overview and illustrates concepts with examples from veterinary trials and with example data sets.     

畜牧业风险的规避

本文针对我国畜牧业的发展状况，阐述了市场经济条件下畜牧业的四种主要风险，即环境风险、市场风险、疫病风险和突发风险对畜牧生产的危害，并论述了其产生的原因。在此基础上，提出了相应的应对措施，为畜牧业的稳定、持续、协调发展提供了参考。     

Evidence‐Based Infection Control In Clinical Practice: If You Buy Clothes for the Emperor,Will He Wear Them?

In the fabled story of the Emperor's New Clothes, nakedness is ignored, denied, and accepted despite its obviousness. Similarly, we seemingly have ignored, denied, and accepted the risks of healthcare‐associated infections (HCAI) in veterinary settings, despite common occurrence and obvious importance. Risks for HCAI in veterinary medicine cannot be denied and are increasingly apparent because of improved surveillance and reporting. We have an ethical responsibility to take all reasonable precautions to minimize foreseeable infectious disease hazards, and provide an environment in which personnel and patients are protected from infectious disease hazards so that care can be optimized. Yet, there is often a pronounced mismatch between what we know about risks for infectious disease and our actions. Veterinarians often fail to act on well‐known, universally accepted risks for infectious disease in patients and in people contacting these animals. We must educate personnel so they are well‐versed regarding agents commonly causing HCAI (including zoonotic infections), can identify patients with higher risks for shedding agents and for developing HCAI, have awareness of which procedures and management practices are associated with higher rates of HCAI, and have skill in applying effective prevention methods. We need to develop standardized benchmarks for risks of HCAI in veterinary settings, better understand efficacy and cost‐effectiveness for prevention practices, and develop good educational materials that will promote an effective understanding of risks and prevention methods for HCAI among personnel and the public. We need to buy new clothes for the emperor and be sure he actually wears them!     

Prevalence and breed distribution of chronic pancreatitis at post-mortem examination in first-opinion dogs

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of canine chronic pancreatitis in first-opinion practice and identify breed associations or other risk factors. METHODS: Three sections of pancreas were taken from 200 unselected canine post-mortem examinations from first-opinion practices. Sections were graded for inflammation, fibrosis and other lesions. Prevalence and relative risks of chronic pancreatitis and other pancreatic diseases were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of chronic pancreatitis was 34 per cent omitting the autolysed cases. Cavalier King Charles spaniels, collies and boxers had increased relative risks of chronic pancreatitis; cocker spaniels had an increased relative risks of acute and chronic pancreatitis combined. Fifty-seven per cent of cases of chronic pancreatitis were classified histologically as moderate or marked. Forty-one per cent of cases involved all three sections. Dogs with chronic pancreatitis were more commonly female and overweight, but neither factor increased the relative risk of chronic pancreatitis. There were breed differences in histological appearances and 24.5 per cent of cases were too autolysed to interpret with an increased relative risk of autolysis in a number of large breeds. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Chronic pancreatitis is a common, under-estimated disease in the first-opinion dog population with distinctive breed risks and histological appearances.