胶州地区近5年气候变化特征分析

利用近5年胶州地区自动气象观测站的监测资料,对胶州市的气候进行分析研究。研究表明：胶州市平均气温13.8℃；年平均降水量为535毫米,降水从5月份开始增多,8月份最多；平均风速3.0～5.2m/s,春季和冬季风速偏大,风向以东南风为主。通过对胶州市气候变化的特征分析和研究,为胶州市森林防火、生态建设等工作提供科学依据。     

Role of seasonality in the evolution of climate during the last 100 million years

A simple climate model has been used to calculate the effect of past changes in the land-sea distribution on the seasonal cycle of temperatures during the last 100 million years. Modeled summer temperatures decreased over Greenland by more than 10 degrees C and over Antarctica by 5 degrees to 8 degrees C. For the last 80 million years, this thermal response is comparable in magnitude to estimated atmospheric carbon dioxide effects. Analysis of paleontological data provides some support for the proposed hypothesis that large changes due to seasonality may have sometimes resulted in an ice-free state due to high summer temperature rather than year-round warmth. Such "cool" non-glacials may have prevailed for as much as one-third of the last 100 million years.     

Coupled thermal and hydrological evolution of tropical Africa over the last deglaciation

We analyzed the distribution of branched tetraether membrane lipids derived from soil bacteria in a marine sediment record that was recovered close to the Congo River outflow, and the results enabled us to reconstruct large-scale continental temperature changes in tropical Africa that span the past 25,000 years. Tropical African temperatures gradually increased from approximately 21 degrees to 25 degrees C over the last deglaciation, which is a larger warming than estimated for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A direct comparison with sea-surface temperature estimates from the same core revealed that the land-sea temperature difference was, through the thermal pressure gradient, an important control on central African precipitation patterns.     

Synchronous radiocarbon and climate shifts during the last deglaciation

Radiocarbon data from the Cariaco Basin provide calibration of the carbon-14 time scale across the period of deglaciation (15,000 to 10, 000 years ago) with resolution available previously only from Holocene tree rings. Reconstructed changes in atmospheric carbon-14 are larger than previously thought, with the largest change occurring simultaneously with the sudden climatic cooling of the Younger Dryas event. Carbon-14 and published beryllium-10 data together suggest that concurrent climate and carbon-14 changes were predominantly the result of abrupt shifts in deep ocean ventilation.     

Local orbital forcing of antarctic climate change during the last interglacial

During the last interglacial, Antarctic climate changed before that of the Northern Hemisphere. Large local changes in precession forcing could have produced this pattern if there were a rectified response in sea ice cover. Results from a coupled sea ice-ocean general circulation model supported this hypothesis when it was tested for three intervals around the last interglacial. Such a mechanism may play an important role in contributing to phase offsets between Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate change for other time intervals.     

Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.     

Abrupt climate oscillations during the last deglaciation in central north america

Evidence from stable isotopes and a variety of proxies from two Ontario lakes demonstrate that many of the late glacial-to-early Holocene events that are well known from the North Atlantic seaboard, such as the Gerzensee-Killarney Oscillation (also known as the Intra-Allerod Cold Period), Younger Dryas, and Preboreal Oscillation, also occurred in central North America. These results thus imply that climatic forcing acted in the same manner in both regions and that atmospheric circulation played an important role in the propagation of these events.     

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination

A record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, obtained from the Dome Concordia, Antarctica, ice core, reveals that an increase of 76 parts per million by volume occurred over a period of 6000 years in four clearly distinguishable intervals. The close correlation between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature indicates that the Southern Ocean played an important role in causing the CO2 increase. However, the similarity of changes in CO2 concentration and variations of atmospheric methane concentration suggests that processes in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere, where the main sources for methane are located, also had substantial effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations.     

Tropical climate at the last glacial maximum inferred from glacier mass-balance modeling

Model-derived equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) of former tropical glaciers support arguments, based on other paleoclimate data, for both the magnitude and spatial pattern of terrestrial cooling in the tropics at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Relative to the present, LGM ELAs were maintained by air temperatures that were 3.5 degrees to 6.6 degrees C lower and precipitation that ranged from 63% wetter in Hawaii to 25% drier on Mt. Kenya, Africa. Our results imply the need for a approximately 3 degrees C cooling of LGM sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool. Sensitivity tests suggest that LGM ELAs could have persisted until 16,000 years before the present in the Peruvian Andes and on Papua, New Guinea.     

Asynchronous climate changes in the North Atlantic and Japan during the last termination

Pollen records from the annually laminated sediment sequence in Lake Suigetsu, Japan, suggest a sequence of climate changes during the Last Termination that resembles that of the North Atlantic region but with noticeable differences in timing. An interstadial interval commenced a few centuries earlier [approximately 15,000 years before the present (yr B.P.)] than the North Atlantic GI-1 (B?lling) event. Conversely, the onset of a Younger Dryas (YD)-like cold reversal (12,300 to 11,250 yr B.P.) postdated the North Atlantic GS-1 (YD) event by a few centuries. Climate in the Far East during the Last Termination reflected solar insolation changes as much as Atlantic influences.     

Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years

Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.     

陕西宝鸡市近50年农业气候资源特征分析

【目的】研究陕西宝鸡市近50年农业气候资源的变化规律。【方法】选用宝鸡市11个县(区)气象站的1961—2008年气温、降水量和日照等气象要素统计资料,对宝鸡市近50年光资源、热量资源和水资源的变化特征进行分析。【结果】1)年日照时数以38.95h/10年的倾向率波浪式减少,其中以夏季减少趋势最明显,线性倾向率为-28.8h/10年;年平均气温以0.238℃/10年倾向率上升,冬、春季平均气温上升最快,夏季平均气温升温幅度最小;年降水量以倾向率为31.187mm/10年波动性减少,这种减少主要是由于春季和秋季降水量减少而致。2)由于气温升高,各农业界限温度的初日明显提前,终日推迟,持续时间明显增多,积温显著增加,以平均气温≥0℃和平均气温≥10℃时各指标变化较明显,平均气温≥20℃时各指标变化较小。【结论】近50年,由于气候变化,宝鸡市农业气候资源发生了明显变化,使农业生产的不稳定性增加、产量波动加大。     

Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.     

Atmospheric trace gases: trends and distributions over the last decade

Concentrations of the halocrbons CCl(3)F (F-11), CCl(2)F(2) (F-12), CCl(4), and CH(3)CCl(3), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) over the decade between 1975 and 1985 are reported, based on measurements taken every January at the South Pole and in the Pacific Northwest. The concentrations of F-11, F-12, and CH(3)CCl(3) in both hemispheres are now more than twice their concentrations 10 years ago. However, the annual rates of increase of F-11, F-12, and CH(3)CC1(3) are now considerably slower than earlier in the decade, reflecting in part the effects of a ban on their nonessential uses. Continued increases in these trace gas concentrations may warm the earth and deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, which may cause widespread climatic changes and affect global habitability.     

Synchroneity of tropical and high-latitude Atlantic temperatures over the last glacial termination

A high-resolution western tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) record from the Cariaco Basin on the northern Venezuelan shelf, based on Mg/Ca values in surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, reveals that changes in SST over the last glacial termination are synchronous, within +/-30 to +/-90 years, with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 air temperature proxy record and atmospheric methane record. The most prominent deglacial event in the Cariaco record occurred during the Younger Dryas time interval, when SSTs dropped by 3 degrees to 4 degrees C. A rapid southward shift in the atmospheric intertropical convergence zone could account for the synchroneity of tropical temperature, atmospheric methane, and high-latitude changes during the Younger Dryas.     

Atmospheric CO2 and climate on millennial time scales during the last glacial period

Reconstructions of ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations help us better understand how the global carbon cycle and climate are linked. We compared CO2 variations on millennial time scales between 20,000 and 90,000 years ago with an Antarctic temperature proxy and records of abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature were positively correlated over millennial-scale climate cycles, implying a strong connection to Southern Ocean processes. Evidence from marine sediment proxies indicates that CO2 concentration rose most rapidly when North Atlantic Deep Water shoaled and stratification in the Southern Ocean was reduced. These increases in CO2 concentration occurred during stadial (cold) periods in the Northern Hemisphere, several thousand years before abrupt warming events in Greenland.     

Evidence from Western north america for rapid shifts in climate during the last glacial maximum

The Estancia basin in southwestern United States contains evidence for strong and rapid pulsations in the supply of moisture brought into the region during the last ice age. The pulses were recorded during episodes of stream discharge that spread plumes of fresh water laden with quartz sand over the saline lake. The largest pulses in stream discharge lasted only a few decades, were organized into cycles that were spaced approximately 200 to 250 and 2000 years apart, and were of sufficient magnitude to freshen and maintain the lake at its maximum recorded elevation.