计及电网停电风险的输电线路动态融冰决策方法

电网发生大面积冰灾情况时,多条输电线路存在覆冰故障隐患,电网稳定运行受到严重威胁,需要提前制定输电线路融冰方案,合理安排融冰顺序。针对此问题,分析输电线路覆冰继续运行给电网带来的停电风险,将与待融冰输电线路相关联的变电站的电气主接线展开,将传统削负荷模型改进后应用于输电网与变电站主接线的组合网络,建立断路器可靠性模型,计算靠后融冰线路因继续运行的电网停电风险;利用计及风速及降雨影响的输电线路覆冰增长预测模型,计算输电线路的覆冰率,根据覆冰率门槛值确定待融冰线路集,基于覆冰严重度模型构建系统全局的覆冰指数指标;综合考虑电网停电风险及系统全局覆冰指数建立输电线路融冰紧迫度指标,动态更新待融冰线路并决策融冰顺序。最后,以IEEE RBTS系统进行算例分析,验证了所提方法的可行性与合理性。     

区域农业可持续发展系统及其评价--以河北省为例

系统分析了区域农业可持续发展系统的定义与内涵,从多目标角度,提出了河北省农业可持续发展评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法对具体指标进行了排序,基于此对河北省"八五"和"九五"期间年农业发展状况作出了评价.     

区域农业可持续发展系统及其评价

系统分析了区域农业可持续发展系统的定义与内涵 ,从多目标角度 ,提出了河北省农业可持续发展评价指标体系 ,并运用层次分析法对具体指标进行了排序 ,基于此对河北省“八五”和“九五”期间年农业发展状况作出了评价     

基于模糊综合评价的油菜网络信息可信度研究

为了给用户提供可信的信息服务,需要对网络信息进行可信度评估,而评价网站可信度的方法是网络信息可信度评估的基础和重要组成部分,旨在探索农业综合型和专业型网站可信度评估的方法。应用模糊综合评价法对提出的网站可信度评估指标体系中的重要指标数据进行了融合,再以涉及油菜信息的网站为试验对象,进行试验数据采集与分析,对43个包含油菜信息的综合型和专业型网站可信度进行了计算和综合排序。试验Ⅰ选取了网站PR值、反向链接数、Alexa排名、页面收录数等4个指标,试验Ⅱ选取了网站PR值、反向链接数、Alexa排名、页面收录数、专业性等5个指标,分别进行模糊综合评价。试验结果表明：从网站综合实力判断网站可信度,农博网、中国农业信息网、一亩田油菜网、中华人民共和国农业部、中国农业科学院网对评评价指标体系Ⅰ反应较好;整体上国家级网站可信度高于地方级网站;网站可信度与当地的信息化和农业水平有一定关系;专业型网站与综合型网站差距较大。从网站综合实力和专业需求两方面判断网站可信度,较好的有农博网、中国农业信息网、中华人民共和国农业部。试验Ⅰ的评测指标适合于综合型网站可信度量,试验Ⅱ的评测指标适合于专业型网站可信度量。该文提出的网站可信度评价模型可为其他网站可信度评估提供参考,其中的指标可根据实际情况来选取以及确定其权重。     

土体抗剪强度指标变异水平对边坡稳定安全系数取值的影响

针对传统的边坡稳定极限平衡方法不能考虑土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响的问题,基于极限状态的概率分析原理,采用Monte-Carlo法对均质路堤边坡的稳定性开展了可靠度计算,讨论了稳定安全系数一定的条件下边坡失效概率随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化规律,分析了安全系数与边坡可靠指标的对应关系及其随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的变化特征。研究表明：边坡可靠度受土体抗剪强度指标变异性影响显著,呈现出随土体抗剪强度指标变异水平提高而急剧减小的趋势;为保证边坡具有相同的可靠性,安全系数的取值应与土体抗剪强度指标的变异性相适应,据此提出了基于可靠指标和土体抗剪强度指标变异水平的安全系数取值原则及其对应的三参数函数关系式。     

应用STATCOM的DFIG风力发电机低电压穿越能力分析

针对DFIG（double fed induction generator）风电机组低电压穿越能力（LVRT,low voltage ride through）问题,笔者基于STATCOM研究了一种电压外环与电流内环相结合的双闭环反馈控制策略,并仿真验证了所提出方法的有效性。将STATCOM分别安装风电机组机端、并网点高压侧和低压侧,且设置不同电压跌落深度,比较其补偿效果。实验结果表明,安装在风电机组机端时补偿效果最好。在电网电压跌落时,STATCOM能快速为电网输入无功,抬高风力机的机端电压,从而提高风电场的LVRT能力,从STATCOM输出无功大小和风电场机端电压被抬升的比例两方面分析,对于不同深度的电压跌落,STATCOM补偿效果都较为显著。     

农业生态系统安全性预警与预警系统的建立

分析农业生态系统面临的威胁，提出农业生态系统进行安全性预警必要性，探讨了预警指标、模型和预警类型的选择和及农业生态预警系统建立等研究状况。预警指标的选择主要考虑受人类直接或间接影响后而容易发生退化的因子,主要有土壤肥力质量指标和土壤环境质量指标等; 模型在生态安全预警研究中具有预测、解释和推断功能，在不同预警指标中将会采用不同的模型；预警的类型包括对农业生态系统恶化的程度和状态，趋势，速度等预警；WebGIS技术的运用为建立包括不同尺度和时间的预警，单项因子预警信息、子系统预警信息和系统总体预警提供了有力的技术支撑。     

基于EFAST的盾构隧道安全指标全局敏感性分析

为了分析地铁隧道健康监测中各个指标之间的相互演化作用关系,提出了一种对监测数据进行分析的数据挖掘思路,将傅里叶幅值灵敏度检验扩展法（EFAST）应用于各项指标的全局敏感性分析中。依据现行隧道安全评价规范,建立反映隧道安全状态的指标体系;通过基于粒子群优化的最小二乘法支持向量机（PSO-LSSVM）,模拟构建了各安全指标函数拟合模型,用以描述隧道各安全指标之间相互作用关系;在此基础上,采用EFAST对该模型的指标进行了全局敏感性分析。结果发现,对隧道安全性影响较大的敏感因素有管片接缝张开宽度、管片接缝接触应力和隧道沉降值;另外,还分析了不同的目标参数、不同的参数取值范围、不同的输入参数的分布形式对参数敏感度值的影响,从不同的角度揭示了盾构地铁隧道中参数的相互作用机理的演化规律。     

基于支持向量机非线性筛选水稻苗期抗旱性指标

作物抗旱性指标筛选具小样本、多指标和非线性等特点,传统的基于经验风险最小原则经线性筛选获得的综合指标及在此基础上建立的线性回归模型的合理性受到质疑;基于结构风险最小原则的支持向量机具适于小样本、非线性、泛化推广能力优异等诸多优点,但可解释性差。本文以15个水稻品种苗期反复干旱存活率为因变量,从24个形态生理指标中经支持向量回归(SVR)非线性筛选得苗高、脯氨酸、丙二醛、叶龄、心叶下倒一叶面积、抗坏血酸等6个综合指标,以此建立的SVR模型拟合精度与留一法预测精度均明显优于参比线性模型;如考虑指标测量的简易性,仅以地上部干重、心叶下倒二叶面积、根冠比、叶龄、叶鲜重、心叶下倒一叶面积等6个形态指标进行评估同样可行。为增强SVR的解释能力,基于F测验对SVR模型建立了非线性回归显著性与单因子重要性显著性的测验方法。     

基于灰色优势分析的中国农业投入产出水平研究

农业投入产出水平可以从2个方面进行衡量,一是农业投入产出的规模水平;二是农业投入产出的效益水平。灰色优势分析能够在排除主观因素干扰的情况下,对农业投入产出水平评价指标进行赋权,提升了评价体系的可信度。农业产出指标和投入指标的关联序分别表征了各评价指标在衡量农业投入产出水平时的代表性强弱。经测算,1981—2010年,中国农业投入产出规模指数总体上不断升高,但1995年以前主要依靠产出拉动,此后主要依靠投入拉动;农业投入产出效益指数先正后负,且呈“S”形波动,意味着中国农业生产发展已先后摆脱“高效益、低水平”和“高水平、低效益”的非良性状态,开始呈现出“高效益、高水平”的良性发展势头。     

Optimal bidding models of power plants considering transmission congestion

In order to achieve optimal bidding strategy of power plants in electricity market, the authors build optimal bidding model by predicting the bidding coefficients of competitors, and the optimal bidding coefficient without considering transmission capacity is achieved. Based on the bidding coefficients, the market clearing model is built, and the expected market clearing price is achieved. According to the expected values, the authors calculate the power flow. When forecasting the transmission congestion, this paper presents an optimal bidding model taking transmission congestion into account. Based on sensitivity analysis, the output regulation of power plants with minimum cost of eliminating congestion is achieved. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can help power plants achieve the optimal profit.     

Transmission Congestion Management Based on Power Influence Coefficient

Basing eliminating on the idea that the generator who has the most influence on the power flow of line is mostly in favor of transmission congestion, the model of congestion management with the object of minimizing adjustments of bufions varied with generation outputs is proposed. It can eliminate the congestion effectively by judging the generators who should be adjusted and the amounts of adjustment. The test on IEEE-RTS24 buses system and other practical systems show that the proposed method is effective.     

Reliability Evaluation Model of Composite Generation and Transmission System Incorporating FACTS Devices

The utilization of Flexible AC Transimssion System(FACTS)technology has significant impact on power system reliability performance.Series FACTS devices such as Thyristor Controlled Phase Shifting Transformers(TCPSTs) and Thyristor Controlled Series Compensators(TCSCs) can change the natural allocation of the power flow and effectively alleviate transmission congestion.Parallel FACTS devices such as Static Var Compensators(SVCs)can provide reactive power support and maintain voltage stability.So it is important to quantitatively evaluate their benefits to the power system reliability.The traditional models of the composite generation and transmission system reliability evaluation are mainly focused on conventional generation and transmission facilities.This paper researches the power flow model of TCPST and TCSC,and then presents the optimal load shedding model incorporating TCPSTs,TCSCs and SVCs and effectively incorporates them into the reliability evaluation model.The proposed method is tested on the RBTS and the obtained results show that the system reliability can be improved effectually by FACTS devices.     

A new control design for grid integration ofDFIG wind farm with VSC-HVDC

This paper proposes a control scheme for a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) wind farm with VSC-HVDC grid integration to ensure secure and reliable operation of power system with fluctuated wind power penetration. The whole system dynamic models are respectively described. Based on vector control system with a virtual voltage orientation, a steady-state voltage control block and a dynamic voltage control block with a cross-product term of d-q currents are separately designed for WFVSC to control the corresponding parts of the wind farm voltage. Meanwhile, with the consideration of AC and DC side parameter variation and external disturbance, an improved backstepping control scheme with Lyapunov stability provement is also proposed for the GSVSC. The combination of the two schemes makes up the new control design of this study. Besides, to verify the performance of the proposed new control design, three different cases are suggested which contain the AC and DC side parameter variation and external disturbance such as local load cut off-in, grid voltage harmonics. Finally, numerical simulations using MATLAB/Simulink are presented for a 200MW DFIG wind farm with VSC-HVDC grid integration to validate the proposed control scheme and demonstrate the improved system operation performance. Moreover, the corresponding discussions are also presented for further illustrations.     

Gear-bearing coupling dynamics characteristics of wind turbine planetary gear transmission system under variable load

Considering that the transmission system of wind turbine works in complex and changing load environment caused by stochastic wind speed,this paper uses sparse least squares support vector machine(SL-SVM) to simulate wind speed of true wind field,and obtains time-varying wind load caused by stochastic wind speed. The lumped-parameter method is used to develop a dynamic model of planetary gear transmission system of wind turbine coupled with bearing. The model includes the varying wind load,time-vary mesh stiffness of gear pair and time-vary stiffness of rolling element bearing. The numerical method is used to simulate the dynamic performance of planetary gear system of Multibrid Technology Wind Turbine with 1.5 MW rated power. The vibration displacement responses of the transmission system are obtained as well as dynamic meshing force each pair of gear and nonlinear bearing forces. The research can provide a foundation for optimizing dynamic performance and reliable design of gear transmission system of wind generator.     

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power System Including Dependent Outage of Transmission Line

In order to calculate and analyze the effect of two transmission lines in parallel on the reliability evaluation of bulk power system, a model including independent outage, common mode outage and dependent outage of these lines is deduced and a new algorithm corresponding to the model is presented. Two transmission lines in parallel including common mode outages and dependent outages can be really simulated as a multi-state component. While reliability indices are calculated, the probability and frequency of independent outage, common mode outage and dependent outage of a system failure state can be calculated at the same time, and computation complexity is reduced. The proposed model and algorithm are applied to the RBTS system, IEEE One Area RTS96 system and a real power system for reliability computation and analysis. Results show that the new algorithm is credible and validity.     

Multi-objective dynamic optimization design of high-power wind turbine gearbox

A dynamic model of NGW helical planetary gear transmission for high-power wind turbine gearbox is established by considering these factors as errors of gears and time-varying mesh stiffness by using mass centralized method. Moreover, the random wind velocity is simulated as external seismic excitation making the results more conform to practical condition. And on this basis, this system is optimized for minimum gearbox volume and minimum component torsional acceleration with the restriction of reliability and strength restrain. The result indicates that the optimized parameters make gear transmission lightweight and the dynamic property improved so as to reduing vibration and noised.     

Congestion Management Analysis Based on Flow Gate Rights

In order to alleviate the congestion economically and effectually under the competitive circumstance of electricity market,an applied method of congestion management,which based on FGR(Flow Gate Rights),has been proposed.The share of line has been used to define the power plant's influence on congestion.The proportional principle has been used to compute local marginal price.Then they are both used to balance the charge of FGR.The ISO(Independent System Operator) will dispatch the system to meet the FGR holders' rights.This method is used to alleviate congestion effectually,activate power plants to take part in scheduling positively,and level off the price.An instance is used to illustrate the feasibility of this method with FGR.     

Recognizing the reliability non-coherence components ofdistribution substation typical configuration

Reliability non-coherence components (RNC) may exist in a power system due to the effects of distribution substation connection modes, components reliability performance, load level, and other factors. Recognizing RNCs and removing them from a power system can improve system reliability. The reliability non-coherence phenomenon is analyzed and the reliability non-coherence probability, frequency and energy indices, which can describe the degree of the system reliability non-coherence feature, are proposed. Based on the reliability evaluation theory of substation configuration, recognizing technique of RNCs of distribution substation is proposed. The theoretical analysis and example show that the breaker connects high voltage buses may be the RNC when the rated capacity of one transformer can meet the load requirement, and the reliability parameters of breakers have some effects on the reliability non-coherence features of the typical substation configuration.