Areawide suppression of European corn borer with Bt maize reaps savings to non-Bt maize growers

Transgenic maize engineered to express insecticidal proteins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) has become widely adopted in U.S. agriculture. In 2009, Bt maize was planted on more than 22.2 million hectares, constituting 63% of the U.S. crop. Using statistical analysis of per capita growth rate estimates, we found that areawide suppression of the primary pest Ostrinia nubilalis (European corn borer) is associated with Bt maize use. Cumulative benefits over 14 years are an estimated $3.2 billion for maize growers in Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with more than $2.4 billion of this total accruing to non-Bt maize growers. Comparable estimates for Iowa and Nebraska are $3.6 billion in total, with $1.9 billion for non-Bt maize growers. These results affirm theoretical predictions of pest population suppression and highlight economic incentives for growers to maintain non-Bt maize refugia for sustainable insect resistance management.     

Magnetic confinement fusion

Fusion plasmas with reactorlike temperatures have been confined in magnetic-field configurations of the tokamak type. The measured rate of heat leakage from these plasmas is sufficiently small to be compatible with the requirements of a full-sized fusion power reactor. Improvements in other aspects of reactor performance are still needed, however, and the high cost of reactor- development steps has become an obstacle on the path to practical fusion power.     

Improved and safer nuclear power

Recent progress in advanced nuclear power development in the United States is revealing high potential for nuclear reactor systems that are smaller and easier to operate than the present generation. Passive, or intrinsic, characteristics are applied not only to provide inherent stability of the chain reaction but also to ensure continued cooling of the fuel and its containment systems even if a major breakdown of the normal cooling and control functions were to occur. The chance of a severe accident is thereby substantially reduced. The plant designs that are emerging are simpler and more rugged, have a longer life span, and place less burden on equipment and operating personnel. Modular design concepts and design standardization are also used to reduce construction time and engineering costs, giving promise that the cost of generating power from these systems will be competitive with alternative methods.     

Earthquakes, faults, and nuclear power plants in southern new york and northern new jersey

Seismic activity in the greater New York City area is concentrated along several northeast-trending faults of which the Ramapo fault appears to be the most active. Three nuclear power plants at Indian Point, New York, are situated close to the Ramapo fault. For a reactor site in use for 40 years, the probability that the site will experience an intensity equal to or in excess of the design (safe shutdown) earthquake is estimated to be about 5 to 11 percent.     

Corrections and clarifications

The 1994 and 1995 federal science budget appropriations for two of the activities were inadvertently transposed in a table that accompanied the article "Hitting the President's target is mixed blessing for agencies" by Jeffrey Mervis (News & Comment, 14 Oct., p. 211). The correct figures for Defense Department spending on university research are $1.460 billion in 1994 and $1.279 billion in 1995; for research and development at NASA, the correct figures are $9.455 billion in 1994 and $9.824 billion in 1995.     

全球转基因作物的产业化发展

转基因作物进行第一次大规模商业化种植始于1996年,至2007年,12年来,全球转基因作物的种植面积增加了66倍,达到1.143亿hm2,比2006年增加了12%。同时,随着智利和波兰的加入,种植转基因作物的国家由最初6个增加到23个,其中,发展中国家(12)在数量上首次超过发达国家(11)。种植转基因作物的农户比2006年又增加了200万户,总种植户达到1 200万。全球转基因作物市场价值累计约425亿美元。2007年,全球转基因作物市场价值达到69亿美元,占农作物总价值的16%,占种子市场价值的20%。专家预测,2008年全球转基因作物市场价值大约可达到75亿美元。     

Humans as the world's greatest evolutionary force

In addition to altering global ecology, technology and human population growth also affect evolutionary trajectories, dramatically accelerating evolutionary change in other species, especially in commercially important, pest, and disease organisms. Such changes are apparent in antibiotic and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) resistance to drugs, plant and insect resistance to pesticides, rapid changes in invasive species, life-history change in commercial fisheries, and pest adaptation to biological engineering products. This accelerated evolution costs at least $33 billion to $50 billion a year in the United States. Slowing and controlling arms races in disease and pest management have been successful in diverse ecological and economic systems, illustrating how applied evolutionary principles can help reduce the impact of humankind on evolution.     

Human food from ocean and land

The figures in Table 1 yield some interesting results. The total annual value of food and mineral resources taken from the ocean is $8.3 billion, in contrast to $309 billion from the land. Using the land value as the yardstick, if the annual value of produce from the ocean were in ratio to the area relationship of ocean and land, the ocean potential would be $750 billion; the actual recovery for 1964 was only 1.1 percent of that potential. This very low percentage is the basis for either great optimism for the future development of the ocean (on the basis of unrealized potential), or great pessimism (on the basis of high costs compared with further development of land resources, or present exploitation to near the limit of productivity).     

Improving the health of the global poor

We analyzed the technical basis for a major global program to reduce disease among the poor. Effective interventions exist against the few diseases which most account for excess mortality among the poor. Achieving high coverage of effective interventions requires a well-functioning health system, as well as overcoming a set of financial and nonfinancial constraints. The annual incremental cost would be between $40 billion and $52 billion by 2015 in 83 low-income and sub-Saharan African countries. Such a program is feasible and would avoid millions of child, maternal, and adult deaths annually in poor countries.     

Erratum

The time of impact of a meteorite at Lake Acraman is estimated to have been around 600 million years ago, when materials were being deposited in the Bunyeroo Formation, not 1 billion years ago as stated in "Meteorite scenario pieced together" (This Week in Science, 11 July, p. 139).     

灾变模型在马尾松毛虫幼虫发生量预报中的应用

  目的  提高马尾松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus幼虫发生量预测预报结果的准确性。  方法  利用灰色灾变预测GM(1, 1)模型预测了安徽省潜山县1989-2016年马尾松毛虫越冬代、1代和2代严重发生的年份。  结果  马尾松毛虫越冬代虫口数的GM(1, 1)灾变预测模型为:${\hat z^{(1)}}(k + 1) = 9.580\;75{{\rm{e}}^{0.269\;33k}} - 8.580\;75$, 其中k为年序号, ${\hat z^{(1)}}(k + 1)$为灾变年序号。1代幼虫虫口数的GM(1, 1)灾变预测模型为:${\hat z^{(1)}}(k + 1) = 18.181\;8{{\rm{e}}^{0.241\;87k}} - 17.181\;8$。2代幼虫虫口数的GM(1, 1)灾变预测模型为:${\hat z^{(1)}}$(k+1)=20.123 7e0.197 58k-19.123 7。根据此模型求得已知年份的拟合值与观察值, 对两者差异进行t检验, 差异均不显著, 即拟合值与观察值间吻合度高, 各灾变年精度值平均为84.40%, 84.85%和84.08%, 总体平均精度依次为96.25%, 92.34%和94.09%, 模型精度高。由此推算未来时刻的预测值得到, 从2011年马尾松毛虫越冬代幼虫灾变年算起, 再过10 a即2021年为马尾松毛虫越冬代大发生年。从2011年马尾松毛虫1代幼虫灾变年算起, 再过11 a即2022年为马尾松毛虫1代幼虫大发生年。从2011年马尾松毛虫2代幼虫灾变年算起, 再过9 a即2020年为马尾松毛虫2代幼虫大发生年。  结论  灾变预测对马尾松毛虫幼虫发生量灾变的预报是一种较理想的预报方法。     

The World Bank's Support for Science and Technology

The World Bank, the largest aid-granting agency in the world, has played a substantial but largely unsung role in helping the scientific and technological development of developing countries. Its investments, totaling $15.5 billion in fiscal year 1984, involve choosing appropriate technology and financing local technological development. Since 1980, the Bank has lent $0.5 billion for agricultural research and about $1 billion for scientific and technological education. It contributes to and mobilizes finances for large international research programs in agriculture and the health sciences. It supports research on labor-based construction, low-cost sanitation, renewable energy resources, and control of traffic congestion. It provides training in the technological aspects of development policy. As funds for aid become scarce, the Bank is reexamining its approach to science and technology.     

2001 BUDGET: NSF and NASA Score Last-Minute Victories

Congress last week gave both NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) significant hikes for 2001: NSF got $4.42 billion, a $522 million boost over this year that nearly matched NSF's 17% request, and NASA received $14.3 billion, nearly twice the White House's request for a 3% boost-but with hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks added on.     

Evaporation of Ice in Space: Saturn's Rings

The photosputtering erosion velocity of ice in space is estimated to be 400 centimeters per billion years at 1 astronomical unit.     

Resources required for global tuberculosis control

We estimate that to achieve the World Health Organization's tuberculosis control targets, the 22 high-burden countries (HBCs) that collectively account for approximately 80% of the world's tuberculosis cases require about $1 billion per year during the period 2001 to 2005. A further $0.2 billion per year is needed for low and lower-middle income countries outside the 22 HBCs. There is a resource gap of up to around $300 million per year. Substantial progress in tuberculosis control could be achieved with increased investment that is large in the context of existing spending, but small in the wider context of global health expenditure.     

广西公益林生态效益补偿研究

为了研究合理的公益林生态效益补偿标准,维持公益林的经营动力,该文采用林木资产评估方法和本金折息法,并以价值损失补偿计量标准,计算公益林生态效益补偿金额.结果表明:①如果政府一次性购买广西集体和个人经营的公益林归国家所有,对公益林经营者进行补偿所需的补偿金额为220亿元人民币;②如果公益林产权不变,仍由所有者按公益林建设规程进行经营,保证公益林正常发挥生态效益,每年对公益林经营者进行补偿所需的补偿金额为7.22亿元人民币.各树种类型公益林补偿标准为:杉木236.0元/(hm2·a)、马尾松214.4元/(hm2·a)、阔叶树219.1元/(hm2·a)、桉树195.4元/(hm2·a)、竹林87.4元/(hm2·a)、灌木林39.1元/(hm2·a).公益林有典型的外部经济性,政府必须对公益林经营者进行合理的经济补偿才能维持公益林的经营动力.      

Radioactive wastes from fusion reactors

Calculation of the amount of tritium released from a hypothetical fusion reactor shows that it is 2 x 10(5) the amount released by generation of an equivalent amount of electricity by a fission reactor. Release of the tritium generated by a power economy, if the nuclear power were all fusion, would result in unacceptable worldwide dosages by the year 2000.     

吉林省主要农作物秸秆空间分布特征及沼气潜力分析

基于吉林省主要农作物水稻、玉米、薯类、大豆、油料作物的产量，本文利用草谷比系数和可收集系数分区域估算不同种类的农作物秸秆资源量，以未被利用的秸秆资源量为原料，计算秸秆资源的沼气利用潜力。结果表明，2020年吉林省主要农作物秸秆理论资源量为6 522.51万t，可收集资源量为5 393.73万t，中部地区秸秆资源较多，东南地区较少，其中长春市秸秆资源最多。吉林省未被利用的玉米、水稻秸秆资源为1 291.29万t，折合标煤667.30万t，通过沼气工程处置，产沼气潜力为40.16亿～58.67亿m³，折合标煤343.52万～502.00万t，可以减排二氧化碳913.76万～1 335.32万t，能源转化率可达51.48%～75.24%；如果全部用于发电，发电潜力为72.27亿～129.08亿kW·h。产沼气潜力最大的地区是松原市，为8.83亿～12.96亿m³，发电潜力为15.89亿～28.51亿kW·h。通过分析农作物秸秆资源量及空间特征，估算不同地区农作物秸秆的沼气潜力，对吉林省农作物秸秆的合理利用及沼气工程建设发展具有非常重要而深远的意义。     

SCIENCE FUNDING: Australian Researchers Go for the Gold

Academic scientists are hoping that two new reports calling for increased funding of research and education and an improved climate for commercializing new technology will finally boost an R&D budget that has been stagnant since 1996. One report argues for a variety of measures to reduce the country's reliance on such low-tech commodities as agriculture and precious metals and stimulate innovation. The second report, based on an innovation summit held in February, recommends spending $1.4 billion over 5 years on research, facilities, and education.     

风电场电能质量模拟监测系统的研究

为了解决大型风电场并网后带来的诸多电能质量问题,在综合分析了风电场电能质量特点的基础上,研究了一种基于虚拟仪器和MATLAB的风电场电能质量模拟监测系统,对风电场的电网电压波动、闪变、电压偏差、频率、谐波、三相不平衡度进行监测。使用LabVIEW Simulation Interface Toolkit与MAT—LAB／Simulink的结合,通过仿真验证了该系统的正确性、可行性,具有一定的推广价值。