Consequences of changing climate and geomorphology for bioenergetics of juvenile sockeye salmon in a shallow Alaskan lake

Abstract – In high northern latitudes, a wide range of geomorphic processes associated with fluvial, glacial and permafrost activity may interact with climate change to produce unexpected changes in lake thermal regimes with attendant effects on ecological processes. We coupled output from a hydrodynamics model of lake thermal structure to a bioenergetics model to assess how alternative scenarios of climate change, geomorphic evolution and habitat restoration in a shallow Alaskan lake may affect juvenile sockeye salmon bioenergetics and growth. In particular, we evaluated the metabolic costs of different thermal regimes and the potential for changes in consumption to offset those costs. Increased water temperatures associated with future climate increased metabolic costs which were partially offset if fish were able to maintain feeding rates, expressed as a constant proportion of maximum consumption. In this lake, water levels have declined substantially in the last 50 years. Simulated restored lake level had negligible effects on lake temperature and thus on sockeye salmon growth when compared to current conditions. Maintaining lake connectivity to inlet tributaries (cooling lake temperature) was crucial in reducing sockeye salmon metabolic costs particularly with further drops in lake level and climate warming. While considerable research is focused on predicting future thermal and geomorphic conditions in aquatic ecosystems, these processes are rarely considered together, especially for lakes. Understanding the biological responses to geomorphic–climate interactions will be required for developing scenarios for coping with ecosystem responses to global change and evaluating restoration alternatives, especially in high‐latitude systems that support economically and culturally important fisheries.     

Potential impacts of climate change on growth and prey consumption of stream‐dwelling smallmouth bass in the central United States

Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu, SMB) is a broadly distributed, economically important species in the USA and Canada. Although previous research has suggested that projected climate warming may allow SMB to thrive beyond their current northern distribution, little research has been devoted to the population‐level effects of climate change on warm‐water fishes, including SMB. We modelled the impacts of projected climate change on growth of stream‐dwelling SMB along a north–south gradient in the central USA. Using downscaled regional projections from three global climate models, we generated scenarios for thermal habitat change for four populations (in Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota) and used bioenergetics simulations to estimate prey consumption and growth under future projections. Bioenergetics simulations showed that prey consumption is expected to increase in all populations with moderate stream warming (2–3 °C). Growth potential is predicted to increase by 3–17% if not limited by food availability with stream warming by 2060 and was most pronounced for southern populations. For each 1 °C increase in stream temperature, SMB consumption would be expected to increase by about 27% and growth would increase by about 6%. Due to implications for species interactions, population performance and regulation of local fisheries, a better understanding of how SMB populations will respond to climate change is recommended for effective management and conservation.     

Anticipating climate change impacts on Mongolian salmonids: bioenergetics models for lenok and Baikal grayling

The Eg–Uur River ecosystem in north‐central Mongolia provides an opportunity to study salmonid species in a system that has already experienced significant climate change. These species are currently imperilled in Mongolian waters, with Baikal grayling (Thymallus arcticus baicalensis) listed as near‐threatened and lenok (Brachymystax lenok) listed as vulnerable on the Mongolian red list. Air temperature records demonstrate that in the last 40 years Northern Mongolia's rate of warming has been three times greater than the northern hemisphere average. Despite alarming trends in air temperatures, little is known of the thermal ecology of these species. Due to the threat of climate change to these species, the objective of our study was to quantify metabolic costs for these species from streamside routine metabolic measures and derive bioenergetics models that we used to assess potential climate change response. Streamside measurements of metabolism were remarkably consistent with expectations from measures of other salmonids gathered under more closely controlled laboratory conditions. Metabolism increased exponentially with temperature for both species. The resulting preliminary bioenergetics models suggest these species are already experiencing temperatures near their upper levels for growth during summer and conditions are expected to deteriorate with warming. Even a modest 2 °C increase in water temperatures during ice out would result in a 59% reduction in growth of lenok, and an inability of Baikal grayling to grow (if food levels remained unchanged) or a 14–23% increase in consumption in order to maintain current growth rates.     

Multispecies biomass dynamics models reveal effects of ocean temperature on predation of juvenile pollock in the eastern Bering Sea

Walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) supports one of the largest commercial fisheries in the world. Juvenile pollock are important forage fish in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem, often representing the largest fraction in the diets of major Bering Sea piscivores. Large variability in the EBS pollock stock biomass in recent years has been attributed primarily to fluctuations in recruitment. It has been hypothesized that predation rates on forage fishes increase when the cold pool (a body of cold water < 2°C) is extensive and covers much of the middle continental shelf, which tends to concentrate larger predatory fishes in the outer shelf and slope regions. In contrast, young pollock appear to tolerate colder temperatures than older fish and can stay in the cold pool, thereby reducing predation. We used a multispecies modeling approach to examine the effects of the cold pool size on predation of juvenile pollock. We found that predation on age‐1 pollock by age‐3+ pollock decreased, and predation on age‐1 and age‐2 pollock by arrowtooth flounder increased with increasing bottom temperature, which was used as a proxy for the cold pool size. These results suggest that the cold pool creates spatial separation between juvenile pollock and arrowtooth flounder, but not between adult and juvenile pollock. The model developed in this study could be used to examine the effects of other covariates on interspecific interactions, help explain observed changes in fish communities, and understand implications of climate change on ecosystems and their productivity.     

Productivity and recovery of forage fish under climate change and fishing: North Sea sandeel as a case study

Forage fish occupy a central position in marine food‐webs worldwide by mediating the transfer of energy and organic matter from lower to higher trophic levels. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important forage fish species in the North‐east Atlantic, acting as a key prey for predatory fish and sea birds, as well as supporting a large commercial fishery. In this case study, we investigate the underlying factors affecting recruitment and how these in turn affect productivity of the North Sea sandeel using long‐term data and modelling. Our results demonstrate how sandeel productivity in the central North Sea (Dogger Bank) depends on a combination of external and internal regulatory factors, including fishing and climate effects, as well as density dependence and food availability of the preferred zooplankton prey (Calanus finmarchicus and Temora longicornis). Furthermore, our model scenarios suggest that while fishing largely contributed to the abrupt stock decline during the late 1990s and the following period of low biomass, a complete recovery of the stock to the highly productive levels of the early 1980s would only be possible through changes in the surrounding ecosystem, involving lower temperatures and improved feeding conditions. To that end, we stress the need for ecosystem‐based management accounting for multiple internal and external factors occurring within the broader context of the ecosystem in which forage fish species, such as sandeel, play an important and integral part.     

Factors driving spatial variation in egg survival of an ecologically and culturally important forage fish

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Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths indicate effects of climate and lake morphology on growth patterns in Arctic lakes

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data-limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed-effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths (N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual-level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow-through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate.     

Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland

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Impacts of climate change on snakehead fish value chains in the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam

ABSTRACT

The productive fisheries of the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam are essential to the food security and nutrition of 60 million people. Yet these fisheries, both culture and capture, are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. This article reports on a study undertaken to examine the vulnerability, as perceived by snakehead (Channa striata) fish farmers in Vietnam and fishers in Cambodia, to the impacts from climate change. Perceived impacts on various actors in the value chain are identified, as well as adaptation strategies currently being utilized and planned for the future. Recommendations are suggested to contribute to assisting snakehead farmers and fishers in adapting and preparing for the impacts of climate change.     

Negative effect of zebra mussels on foraging and habitat use by lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens)

• 1. Lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) are threatened or endangered throughout much of their range. Juvenile sturgeon utilize sandy and silty habitats extensively during their growth. Invasive zebra mussels change the nature of sandy and silty habitats because they settle on and coat the habitat with the shells of living and dead individuals. The potential impacts of this increased habitat complexity on lake sturgeon is unknown.
• 2. Juvenile lake sturgeon habitat choice was assessed in laboratory experiments, and zebra mussel impact on the foraging success of juvenile lake sturgeon on three different prey species was measured.
• 3. Sturgeon foraging on chironomids was virtually eliminated by 95% zebra mussel cover of the sand floor of the foraging arena, and 50% cover reduced foraging significantly. Foraging on more mobile prey items (amphipods and isopods) was essentially eliminated by either 95% or 50% zebra mussel cover of the arena floor. In habitat choice experiments, sturgeon avoided the zebra‐mussel‐covered habitat more than 90% of the time.
• 4. This combination of zebra mussel avoidance and reduced foraging in the presence of zebra mussels may be detrimental to sturgeon restocking programmes utilizing smaller sturgeon in zebra‐mussel‐infested waterways.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential effects of global climate change on fisheries in the Trasimeno Lake (Italy), with special reference to the goldfish Carassius auratus invasion and the endemic southern pike Esox cisalpinus decline

Global climate changes have led to a gradual warming of the planet, resulting in decreased precipitation and rising temperatures in Mediterranean inland waters. In Trasimeno Lake, the largest shallow lake in Italy, some non‐native fish species have probably benefited from these changes as they are thermophilic and characterised by wider habitat preferences. Fish data collected by gillnets and fyke nets between 1956 and 2016, and by electrofishing in 1993 and 2014, were used to analyse changes over time in the fish community in relation to environmental conditions. An explosion in goldfish Carassius auratus (L.), following its introduction in 1988, coupled with water level fluctuations and reduced transparency, contributed to the reduction in commercial fish catch in the lake, and to the decline of the endemic southern pike Esox cisalpinus Bianco & Delmastro, already threatened by reduced spawning habitat and interspecific competition with other non‐native predatory fishes.     

Relationship between fish assemblage and angler catch in the Sulejów Reservoir,central Poland,in the context of a warming climate

The Pilica River has warmed at a rate of 0.06°C per year since 1969, threatening the ecological services provided by the Sulejów Reservoir. Gillnet sampling revealed that the reservoir is inhabited by a cyprinid‐dominated fish assemblage with roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.) (42% of the total biomass), the dominant species. However, the interest of the anglers was primarily focused on common bream, Abramis brama (L.) (almost 65% of the catch), as revealed by the catch statistics (2004–2014). No direct evidence was found that the temperature increase had an influence on the recreational fishery or fish assemblage structure. On the other hand, changes in the fish assemblage that were reflected in angler catch composition were observed. A decrease in the catch of common bream in gillnets was accompanied by a shift in angler choices towards roach and other fish species. The sustainability of recreational fisheries is more likely to be influenced by changes in the economic status of society, water quality (toxic cyanobacteria blooms) and water management practices in Poland. The question arises about which species will dominate in the impoundment in the future if the warming trend continues and common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., stocking is maintained.     

Meta‐analysis of growth rates for a circumpolar fish,the northern pike ( Esox lucius), with emphasis on effects of continent,climate and latitude

For circumpolar species, little is known on how somatic growth rates can vary at large, transcontinental spatial scales. In this study, a meta‐analysis of growth rates was conducted for northern pike ( Esox lucius) across North America and Eurasia. Growth rates of northern pike did not differ between North American and ‘coastal Eurasian’ pike (e.g., UK, Ireland, Sweden), while growth rates for both of these groups were significantly higher compared to ‘inland Eurasian’ pike (mainly in Russia). There was no difference in growth between lentic and lotic habitats on either continent. In North America, pike growth was positively correlated with temperature, but in Eurasia, pike growth correlated poorly with most climatic variables. Similarly, maximum longevity in pike populations was significantly predicted by latitude in North America, but not in Eurasia. After standardising annual pike growth by the thermal opportunity for growth, a highly significant countergradient growth relationship was found for North American pike, while a significant, but considerably less predictive countergradient growth relationship was found for Eurasian pike. This study provides novel insights into the ecology of a circumpolar species and how populations function at extraordinarily large spatial scales. First, pike appear to be cosmopolitan across hydrologic habitats having fast or slow growth in either lentic or lotic environments. Secondly, continental‐scale differences in pike growth rates are suggestive of major genetic and life‐history differences. Finally, variable climate–growth relationships and countergradient growth patterns indicate that global climate change is likely to affect circumpolar fishes like pike in complex, nonlinear ways.     

Modelling effects of climate change on Michigan brown trout and rainbow trout: Precipitation and groundwater as key predictors

Understanding how changes in stream temperature affect survival and growth of coldwater fishes, including brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), is important for conserving coldwater stream fisheries in a changing climate. However, some contemporary stream temperature models assume spatially uniform (i.e. unrealistic) air–stream temperature relationships or demand hydrometeorological predictors (e.g. solar radiation and convection) that are expensive and often impractical for fisheries managers to measure. As such, we produced a relatively cost-effective, management-relevant modelling approach for predicting effects of changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs on stream temperature and, consequently, the survival and growth of brown trout and rainbow trout in Michigan, USA. We found that precipitation- and groundwater-corrected stream temperature models (mean adjusted R² = .77, range = 0.65–0.88) performed better than linear air–stream temperature models (mean adjusted R² = .59, range = 0.21–0.80). Stream temperature was projected to increase by 0.07–3.88°C (1%–22%) with simulated changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs. The greatest warming was predicted for surface runoff-dominated sites with limited groundwater-driven thermal buffering, where thermal habitat suitability for salmonid survival and growth declined 20%–40%. However, groundwater-dominated sites may not be immune to temperature warming, especially if groundwater temperature increases or groundwater inputs decline in a changing climate. Our modelling approach provides a reliable, cost-effective method for predicting effects of climate change on brown trout and rainbow trout survival and growth, allowing for strategic management actions to increase the thermal resilience and sustainability of salmonid populations (e.g. groundwater conservation and riparian/watershed rehabilitation).     

The effect of lake morphometry on thermal habitat use and growth in Arctic charr populations: implications for understanding climate‐change impacts

Oxygen stable isotope temperature reconstruction methods were used to estimate mean experienced summer temperatures from growth zones within individual Arctic charr otoliths sampled from lakes with contrasting morphologies but proximate locations. For either lake, otolith‐estimated temperatures were not significantly related to back‐calculated growth. Fish in the smaller lake evidenced an increase in growth with age related to increasing use of cooler thermal habitats, with the use of thermal habitat possibly governed by predation risks. No relationships between age, growth or temperature were observed in the larger lake. Significant negative effects on back‐calculated growth were observed due to increasing air temperatures in the smaller and shallower lake, possibly owing to warmer surface and littoral waters and a limited amount of preferred cool‐water habitat. A similar relationship was not observed in the larger and deeper lake and indicated that resident Arctic charr were not as vulnerable to the impacts of temperature warming, possibly because of better behavioural thermoregulation opportunities in the cooler, deeper lake. Results provide evidence for differing climate‐influenced growth outcomes among proximately located populations, with outcomes likely to depend on the differences among habitats, including lake size and morphometry which may act to influence fish densities in available preferred thermal habitats.     

Combined effects of a simulated marine heatwave and an algal toxin on a tropical marine aquaculture fish cobia (Rachycentron canadum)

Ongoing global warming is one of the major challenges for the development of aquaculture in the tropical regions where species are already cultured in the water temperature close to their upper physiological thresholds. Furthermore, warming can trigger blooms of toxic algae, yet we do not know how extreme warming such as a marine heatwave (MHW) and algal toxins may affect marine aquaculture species. To address this issue, we investigated the effects of a simulated MHW in combination with exposure to trans‐4‐trans‐decadienal (PUA), a diatom‐derived toxin, on survival, growth, development and biochemical composition of cobia larvae and juveniles. Cobia larvae were exposed for 48 hr to one of two temperatures (29 vs. 34°C) and two PUA treatments (0 vs. 0.5 µM). Surviving larvae from each treatment were divided into two subsets: three replicates were used for the feeding test and five replicates were used for the recovery test in a non‐contaminated environment at the respective temperatures of 29 or 34°C. Survival of cobia larvae was reduced by 16% in either MHW or PUA, but it dropped by 60% when both stressors were present, indicating a synergistic effect. MHW, but not PUA, reduced the feeding of cobia larvae. PUA had no delayed effects on growth rate and biochemical composition of the fish. MHW strongly reduced specific growth rate, body protein and lipid contents in cobia. Our results provide the first empirical evidence of how MHW and toxic algae may interact and challenge cobia and marine aquaculture production in tropical countries.     

Effects of stocking density and natural food availability on the extensive cage culture of pejerrey (Odontesthes bonariensis) in a shallow Pampean lake in Argentina

An experiment was conducted for 80 days at La Salada de Monasterio Lake (Buenos Aires, Argentina) to assess the effect of stocking density and natural food availability on the growth and production of zooplanktivorous juveniles of pejerrey (Odontesthes bonariensis) in extensive cage culture. Ten cages were installed and stocked with 33‐day‐old fish, at three density treatments: 25, 50 and 75 ind. m^?3. Zooplankton was analysed in terms of abundance, biomass and diversity considering three size classes. Caged pejerrey diet was assessed regularly. The pejerrey gut contents composition was clearly different from cage zooplankton, showing a trend to contain bigger components. Reared fish exhibited a tendency to diversification of the diet and to change the mean prey size depending on fish length and stocking density. Regression models showed a positive and direct effect of the bigger zooplankton biomass on fish growth rates, which were also inversely affected by the availability of smaller zooplankton. The results demonstrate that stocking density and available zooplankton, in both quantity and quality, are key factors in regulating extensive cage culture of pejerrey. Handling stocking densities in a dynamic way it is possible to maximize fish growth, biomass harvest or fish number according to the goals of production.