The minor role of pigs in outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease of northern Thailand

SUMMARY: A study was undertaken in northern Thailand to examine the involvement of pigs in outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Data were collected by surveying selected villages, by serological monitoring of pigs and by investigating outbreaks. Fifty-three of 58 villages (91%) surveyed reported that pigs did not develop FMD during the most recent outbreak. The source of 49/60 (82%) outbreaks was attributed to either recent purchases of infected cattle and buffalo or commingling of cattle and buffalo with stock from an infected neighbouring village. One of 60 villages (1.7%) reported that the source was introduced infected pigs. There was no association between the various hypothesised risk factors relating to the management of pigs and the frequency of FMD outbreaks in the survey. The percentage of seropositive pigs during 3 rounds of serological monitoring conducted at 6-monthly intervals in selected villages was 3.5%, 2.6% and 0%, respectively. No clinically affected pigs were observed in 11 outbreak investigations. It was concluded that pigs did not commonly become infected when there were outbreaks of FMD in village cattle and buffalo in northern Thailand. This was probably due to the pig feeding and housing practices employed by villagers that protected pigs from exposure to virus from infected cattle or buffalo, or their products.     

An investigation of 11 outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in villages in northern Thailand

The results of investigations of 11 outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in villages in northern Thailand are described. The causative virus was Asia in one in seven outbreaks, Type O in two outbreaks and unknown in two outbreaks. The most probable sources of the outbreaks were co-mingling of cattle and/or buffalo with livestock from an infected neighbouring village (four) and recent introductions of infected cattle from a public livestock market (two) while the probable source could not be determined in five outbreaks. Attack rates in cattle and buffalo ranged from 0.28% to 50.9% but no pigs became sick during any of the outbreaks. Most outbreaks lasted 4 weeks or less. Adult cattle and buffalo were at higher risk of becoming a case when compared with work cattle. Beef cattle were at higher risk than buffalo and adult cattle and buffalo were at higher risk than calves less than 1 year of age. There was significant clustering of cases within households. Serological investigations indicated that many unaffected animals were probably not exposed to virus during the outbreaks. We concluded that close contact between animals was the main method of spread and that differences in attack rates between animal classes reflected differences in animal management. We further concluded that simple quarantine of early cases during outbreaks is likely to be effective in reducing spread within and between villages.     

Patterns,risk factors and characteristics of reported and perceived foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda

Patterns of outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Uganda were elucidated from spatial and temporal retrospective data retrieved from monthly reports from District Veterinary Officers (DVOs) to the central administration for the years spanning 2001–2008. An assessment of perceived FMD occurrence, risk factors and the associated characteristics was made based on semi-structured questionnaires administered to the DVOs. During this period, a total of 311 FMD outbreaks were reported in 56 (70%) out of Uganda’s 80 districts. The number of reported FMD outbreaks changed over time and by geographical regions. Occurrence of FMD was significantly associated with the dry season months (p = 0.0346), the time when animals movements are more frequent. The average number of FMD outbreaks was higher for some sub-counties adjacent to national parks than for other sub-counties, whilst proximity to international border only seemed to play a role at the southern border. DVOs believed that the major risk factor for FMD outbreaks was animal movements (odds ratio OR 50.8, confidence interval CI 17.8–144.6) and that most outbreaks were caused by introduction of sick animals.     

Estimating the risk of importation of foot-and-mouth disease into Europe

The opinions of a number of recognised world experts on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were sought in order to answer key questions relating to the importation of the disease into European countries from countries outside Europe. In addition, their opinions were sought on where in Europe a primary outbreak of FMD was most likely to occur and the number of outbreaks likely to occur within European countries in the next five years. The Balkans group of countries was considered to be the most likely group within Europe to have a primary outbreak of FMD and also most likely to have the highest number of primary outbreaks. Turkey was considered to be the country outside Europe which was most likely to be the source of an outbreak within Europe as a whole, and the illegal importation of livestock was considered to be the most likely route of introduction of FMD into Europe. Results specific to the Islands group of countries, which included the UK and Ireland, suggested that this group was likely to have a mean of one primary outbreak of FMD in the five years from September 2000, and that the importation of foodstuffs by people entering those countries from Turkey was the most likely source of an outbreak.     

Use of the scan statistic on disaggregated province-based data: foot-and-mouth disease in Iran

The spatial scan statistic was applied to density-smoothed data that approximated the spatial distribution within the area and reduced the potential bias produced when location data have been aggregated for large areas. The method is illustrated, using data on the location of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Iran. Data examined were 4477 FMD outbreaks reported on a per province basis between June 1996 and September 2003. A kernel density of the outbreak locations was estimated, using a fixed radius and the centroid of each province as the designated location of all cases reported for the province. The radius that produced a density map with the highest correlation with expert opinion was 4° (latitude/longitude). Livestock density was used as a proxy for the underlying population at risk of acquiring FMD. Livestock and outbreak density maps were overlain to obtain the number of outbreaks and livestock in each of 15,599 cells covering the mapped surface of the country. A spatial scan statistic was applied to the density-smoothed data assuming that the outbreaks had a Poisson distribution. Results were compared with those obtained using a spatial scan statistic on provincially aggregated data. Application of the spatial scan statistic on the density-smoothed data allowed identification of clusters (P < 0.01) related more to the actual geographic distribution of cases (expert opinion) and of animals at risk, than to the distribution of the provinces. Significant clusters of FMD were identified that coincided with roads, neighboring countries, and high-density population areas, suggesting that the region may represent a route for cross-continent transmission of FMD.     

Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data

We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km² cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.     

Recent Outbreaks of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Type Asia 1 in China

Foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus is the aetiological agent of an important disease of livestock and has a great global impact. The outbreak of FMD type Asia 1 in China was first confirmed at the beginning of May 2005. Subsequent outbreaks occurred in 10 areas in different provinces of China.     

Recent Outbreaks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Type Asia 1 in China

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus is the aetiological agent of an important disease of livestock and has a great global impact. The outbreak of FMD type Asia 1 in China was first confirmed at the beginning of May 2005. Subsequent outbreaks occurred in 10 areas in different provinces of China.     

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

Temporal-spatial epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Mongolia, 2000 – 2002

Prior to 2000, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) had not been observed in Mongolia since 1973; however, between April 2000 and July 2002, Mongolia reported 44 FMD outbreaks that affected cattle, sheep, goats, and camels. The objectives of this study were to describe the distributions of the 44 reported FMD outbreaks in Mongolia and to assess their spatial clustering and directions of movement. Official reports were collected to obtain the number and species of animals both affected and at risk, and the date and geographical coordinates of each outbreak. Significant global and local spatial clusters of reported FMD outbreaks were identified. Disease spread during the second epidemic moved 76° northeast and the spread of the disease during the third epidemic moved 110° northwest. FMD outbreaks were clustered intensely close to other FMD-positive counties. These findings can be used in the future to help plan prevention and control measures in high risk areas.     

Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs: evaluation and optimisation of instrumentation and techniques

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can be transmitted in a variety of ways, one of which is through virus exhaled into the air by infected livestock. It is clear that where there is close contact there will be a range of possible mechanisms for the transmission of disease from animal to animal, including the airborne route if simple barriers between livestock exist. In transmission of FMD over longer distances, airborne transmission represents a significant challenge to the veterinary services in that the mechanism is essentially uncontrollable if the primary source of the disease is not contained. In the event of an epidemic of FMD, such as the one experienced in the United Kingdom in 2001, it is important for disease control purposes to understand the contribution made to the overall spread of disease by aerosolised virus. This assessment is based on a combination of measurements made in the laboratory and through clinical observations in the field. To date, laboratory measurements have used a number of instruments that were not specifically designed for working with FMD virus or whose performance have not been fully compared and documented. This paper compares four samplers and describes the method by which samples are processed. Overall it is concluded that there is no optimum air sampling instrument which could be successfully employed for all situations but the work provides guidance to those wishing to make measurements in the future and establishes a baseline against which any new samplers can be compared.     

How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals (‘stamping out’), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.     

Foot and mouth disease, rinderpest, peste des petits ruminants and avian influenza in the erbil, dohuk, and sulaimania governorates of iraq

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in the northern part of Iraq have been reported. The outbreaks in 1998/1999 were due to type O virus and the disease was associated with significant mortalities especially in young calves and lambs. Furthermore, 10 FMD-like incidents in cattle were reported in 2002 in the three northern governorates. However, these cases were not associated with mortalities and the disease remained localized in the primary foci. Type A virus was isolated from the tested samples, which appears to belong to a genetic lineage within the Iran-96 topotype. A peste des petits ruminants (PPR) outbreak was reported on 27 July, 1998 in Faida, a border town between Ninevah and Dohuk governorates in Iraq. The disease was also reported from four villages: Azadi, Kherpe Sufla, Beibinava and Kendala Sur in northern Iraq. Outbreaks of PPR were also reported in the Aqre region of Dohuk and in Erbil and Sulaimania governorates. Although this disease had been suspected in the central and northern governorates for several years, and was known to be present in neighbouring countries, this was the first official report of PPR in the country and caused great concern. Two human cases of avian influenza (AI) were recorded in the Sulaimania Governorate in January 2006 and the virus was identified as H5N1 by the WHO collaborating laboratory in the United Kingdom. Based on clinical symptoms a number of cases were recorded in February, 2006 in Misan in South Iraq. However, further tests revealed that all these cases were not due to AI.     

Simulating the spatial dynamics of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in feral pigs and livestock in Queensland, Australia, using a susceptible-infected-recovered cellular automata model

We describe an approach to modelling the spatio-temporal spread of foot and mouth disease through feral animal and unfenced livestock populations. We used a susceptible-infected-recovered model, implemented in a cellular automata framework, to assess the spread of FMD across two regions of Queensland, Australia. Following a sensitivity analysis on the infectious states, scenario analyses were conducted using feral pigs only as the susceptible population, and then with the addition of livestock, and initiated in the wet season and in the dry season. The results indicate that, depending on the season the outbreak is initiated, and without the implementation of control measures, an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease around Winton could continue unchecked, while an outbreak around Cape York may die out naturally. The approach explicitly incorporates the spatial relationships between the populations through which the disease spreads and provides a framework by which the spread of disease outbreaks can be explored through varying the model parameters. It highlights the emergence and importance of spatio-temporal patterns, something that previous modelling of FMD in feral animal and unfenced livestock populations has lacked.     

An evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak reporting in mainland South-East Asia from 2000 to 2010

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is considered to be endemic throughout mainland South-East Asia (SEA). The South-East Asia and China FMD (SEACFMD) campaign is a regional control programme which has been ongoing since 1997. The programme encourages countries to submit reports of outbreaks regularly. This paper evolved from a collaboration with SEACFMD to evaluate 10 years worth of reporting. All publicly available outbreak reports (5237) were extracted from the ASEAN Region Animal Health Information System (ARAHIS) for the period from 2000 to mid 2010. These reports included date, outbreak location (at the province and district level) and serotype (if known) plus information on the outbreak size and affected species. Not all records had complete information on the population at-risk or the number of animals affected. This data was transferred into a spatially enabled database (along with data from other sources) and analysed using R and SaTScan. Outbreak serotype was unknown in 2264 (43%) of reports and some countries had very few laboratory confirmed cases (range <1-86%). Outbreak reports were standardised by number of villages in each province. Outbreak intensity varied however there did not appear to be a consistent pattern, nor was there any seasonal trend in outbreaks. Spatial and spatio-temporal cluster detection methods were applied. These identified significant clusters of disease reports. FMD is endemic across the region but is not uniformly present. ARAHIS reports can be regarded as indicators of disease reporting: there may be reports in which laboratory confirmation has not occurred, and in some cases clinical signs are inconsistent with FMD. This raises questions about the specificity of the data. Advances in decentralised testing techniques offer hope for improved verification of FMD as the cause of disease outbreaks. Advances in molecular typing may provide a substantial leap forward in understanding the circulation of FMD in South East Asia.     

Eliciting the relative importance of risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases using conjoint analysis: a preliminary survey report

Conjoint analysis is a technique well known in marketing research to elicit consumer preferences and opinions. This paper describes the results of an experiment which explores the potential application of conjoint analysis in the field of veterinary epidemiology and economics. In this experiment, the method of conjoint analysis was used to elicit the opinion of experts about the relative importance of risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases. Diseases studied were: African Swine Fever (ASF), Classical Swine Fever (CSF), Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), Swine Vesicular Disease (SVD), Newcastle Disease (NCD) and Avian Influenza (AI). Risk factors included were import of livestock, import of animal products, feeding of swill, tourists, returning livestock trucks and air. The conjoint analysis technique was used to draw up a questionnaire which was handed out during the 7th ISVEE held at Nairobi, Kenya, from 15 to 19 August 1994. According to the experts approached, the factors ‘import of livestock’ and ‘import of animal products’ were the major sources of risk for all diseases. For ASF, CSF and FMD, the risk factor ‘swill feeding’ ranked third. For FMD and the two poultry diseases NCD and AI, only the risk factor ‘air’ was important. Overall conclusion was that conjoint analysis could be a useful method for eliciting the opinion of experts about risk factors concerning contagious animal diseases. In further research, special attention should be given to the selection of experts and the presentation of the conjoint questions.     

Effectiveness of vaccines and vaccination programs for the control of foot-and-mouth disease in Uganda, 2001–2010

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. In Uganda, FMD outbreaks are mainly controlled by ring vaccination and restriction of animal movements. Vaccination stimulates immunity and prevents animals from developing clinical signs which include lameness, inappetence, and decreased production. Ring vaccination and restriction of animal movements have, however, not successfully controlled FMD in Uganda and outbreaks reoccur annually. The objective of this study was to review the use of FMD virus (FMDV) vaccines and assess the effectiveness of vaccination programs for controlling FMD in Uganda (2001–2010), using retrospective data. FMD vaccine distribution patterns in Uganda (2001–2010) matched occurrence of outbreaks with districts reporting the highest number of outbreaks also receiving the largest quantity of vaccines. This was possibly due to “fire brigade” response of vaccinating animals after outbreaks have been reported. On average, only 10.3 % of cattle within districts that reported outbreaks during the study period were vaccinated. The average minimum time between onset of outbreaks and vaccination was 7.5 weeks, while the annual cost of FMDV vaccines used ranged from US $58,000 to 1,088,820. Between 2001 and 2010, serotyping of FMD virus was done in only 9/121 FMD outbreaks, and there is no evidence that vaccine matching or vaccine potency tests have been done in Uganda. The probability of FMDV vaccine and outbreak mismatch, the delayed response to outbreaks through vaccination, and the high costs associated with importation of FMDV vaccines could be reduced if virus serotyping and subtyping as well as vaccine matching were regularly done, and the results were considered for vaccine manufacture.     

The impact of seasonal variability in wildlife populations on the predicted spread of foot and mouth disease

Modeling potential disease spread in wildlife populations is important for predicting, responding to and recovering from a foreign animal disease incursion such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). We conducted a series of simulation experiments to determine how seasonal estimates of the spatial distribution of white-tailed deer impact the predicted magnitude and distribution of potential FMD outbreaks. Outbreaks were simulated in a study area comprising two distinct ecoregions in South Texas, USA, using a susceptible-latent-infectious-resistant geographic automata model (Sirca). Seasonal deer distributions were estimated by spatial autoregressive lag models and the normalized difference vegetation index. Significant (P < 0.0001) differences in both the median predicted number of deer infected and number of herds infected were found both between seasons and between ecoregions. Larger outbreaks occurred in winter within the higher deer-density ecoregion, whereas larger outbreaks occurred in summer and fall within the lower deer-density ecoregion. Results of this simulation study suggest that the outcome of an FMD incursion in a population of wildlife would depend on the density of the population infected and when during the year the incursion occurs. It is likely that such effects would be seen for FMD incursions in other regions and countries, and for other diseases, in cases in which a potential wildlife reservoir exists. Study findings indicate that the design of a mitigation strategy needs to take into account population and seasonal characteristics.