基于PSR模型的黄河陕西段鱼类增殖放流生态安全评价

基于压力、状态、响应模型(PSR)和层次分析法(AHP),确定17项指标通过数据的标准化处理,指标权重赋值、权重一致性检验、评价等级确定以及评价模型的构建,用生态安全评价黄河陕西段鱼类增殖放流效果,分析生态安全所面临的主要问题。结果表明:黄河陕西段2013年增殖放流生态安全度(ESI)评价等级为Ⅱ级,为良好状态;2014年评价等级为Ⅲ级,处于一般状态;2015年评价等级为Ⅳ级,处于较差状态,属于临界不安全状态以下水平。生态安全形势呈现出逐年下降局势。不安全状态受到影响较大的前3个指标是:黄河径流量变化影响、重要生境保持率和公众资源环境保护意识的影响,3个指标下降值占到下降ESI值的64.93%。其次还受到污水排放达标率、鱼类增殖放流量、政策和管理水平、鱼类生物多样性指数、保护区建设、水质综合污染指数、群落结构等诸多因素影响。研究显示,现阶段增殖放流对黄河生态安全有一定影响,还存在一定提升空间。     

基于Ecopath模型的大亚湾黑鲷生态容量评估

为评估大亚湾黑鲷(Sparusmacrocephalus)的生态容量,根据2015年渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,利用Ecopathwith Ecosim6.5(EwE)软件构建了由26个功能组组成的大亚湾Ecopath模型,分析了大亚湾生态系统的基本特征,并结合食物网结构和能量流动估算了黑鲷的增殖生态容量。结果显示,黑鲷营养级为3.44,营养转化效率为0.302;大亚湾生态系统各功能组的营养级在1～3.95之间,系统总转化效率为7.636%,总初级生产量/总呼吸量为2.142,系统连接指数为0.364,系统杂食性指数为0.210,表明系统各营养级转化效率较低,能量未被充分利用;系统总转化效率低于10%,营养级I、II流向碎屑量占总流向碎屑量的98.11%,说明能量传递发生阻塞,具有增殖空间。经估算黑鲷生态容量为0.034 t/km2,是现存生物量的1.4倍,此时其他浮游生物食性鱼类的转化效率等于1,系统处于平衡状态;达到生态容量前后大亚湾生态系统的总初级生产量/总呼吸量变化很小(变化值为0.001),系统杂食性指数和系统连接指数均没有变化,因此认为放流黑鲷至生态容量对大亚湾生态系统的稳定性和营养结构未产生影响。     

基于鱼类资源调查的增殖放流方案前期研究-以扎敦水利枢纽为例

进行扎敦枢纽鱼类增殖放流方案设计，为科学开展水利水电工程鱼类增殖放流提供理论依据和技术支撑。2019年10月和2020年4―5月，对呼伦贝尔市扎敦河鱼类资源开展2次系统调查，在此基础上综合分析确定增殖放流的种类，并对放流规模、时间、地点、周期及时序等放流方案进行规、划设计。结果表明，扎敦河共分布有16种鱼类，隶属于2纲5目8科15属。其中，珍稀保护鱼类4种，占总种数的25%。现场调查共采集到鱼类13种，共计2 899尾，重37 188.9 g。参考生物完整性指数(IBI)，通过对保护地位、经济价值、洄游习性、种群资源量、受工程影响程度及人工繁育技术是否突破等6方面综合分析，将细鳞鲑Brachymystax lenok、哲罗鲑Hucho taimen、黑龙江茴鱼Thymallus grubii、瓦氏雅罗鱼Leuciscus waleckii、黑斑狗鱼Esox reichertii、江鳕Lota lota等6种珍稀保护、重要经济鱼类作为本工程近期放流对象。将东北七鳃鳗Lampetra morii作为远期放流对象，近期主要开展人工驯养、繁育技术和栖息地保护研究。基于类比分析，推荐放流数量为16万尾/年。     

基于资源-经济模型的莱州湾中国对虾增殖放流管理

利用2011年莱州湾中国对虾放流回捕生产调查统计和生物学测定数据,构建了包括资源模块、经济模块、决策模块的资源-经济模型,模拟了不同管理决策对放流经济效果的影响.结果表明,放流规模和捕捞强度不变时延迟开捕,总成本降低,渔民捕捞收益和社会经济效益先增加后减少,存在一个使放流经济效益达到最大值的最佳开捕日期：例如,当放流规模为738亿尾、捕捞死亡系数为0.03时,10月8日开捕可以获得最大的社会经济效益19.30万元;放流规模和开捕日期不变时扩大捕捞力量,总成本增加,同样存在一个最优捕捞规模使放流经济效益达到最大,但并非捕捞规模越大获得的经济收益越大;开捕日期和捕捞规模不变时,社会经济效益与放流规模成正比.在放流实践中,管理者应合理设置放流数量、捕捞规模和开捕日期,通过科学管控争取达到最佳的放流效果.     

基于Ecopath模型的海州湾三疣梭子蟹增殖生态容量研究

为科学开展生态型增殖放流,对海州湾海域三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)开展生态容量评估。根据2018-2019年海州湾渔业资源调查数据,构建了由20个功能群组成的海州湾生态系统Ecopath模型,并对模型进行了不确定性及参数敏感性分析检验,系统分析了生态系统的总体特征、功能群间的营养关系和关键功能群,并评估了三疣梭子蟹的增殖生态容量。结果表明,Ecopath模型可信度Pedigree指数为0.482。三疣梭子蟹目前不是海州湾生态系统的关键功能群,其他底层鱼类、软体动物(Molluscs)以及底栖甲壳类(Benthic crustaceans)是海州湾生态系统的关键功能群。三疣梭子蟹生物量的增加对棘头梅童鱼(Collichthys lucidus)以及其他中上层鱼类产生正影响,对底层鱼类以及小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)产生负影响;虾虎鱼科(Gobiidae)、口虾蛄(Oratosquilla oratoria)生物量的增加对三疣梭子蟹有较大负影响,多毛类(Polychaetes)生物量的增加对三疣梭子蟹有较大正影响。三疣梭子蟹的增殖...     

浅谈围填海历史遗留问题的生态修复措施——以增殖放流为例

增殖放流是围填海历史遗留问题的生态修复措施之一,能直接弥补项目建设造成的海洋生物资源损失,目前应用广泛。文章结合浙江省宁波市和舟山市的实际放流工作经验,从实施主体、放流品种、放流地点和放流效果等方面进行探讨,提出和分析所遇到的问题,并给出相应的对策和建议,可为后续增殖放流工作提供参考。     

基于Ecopath模型的长江口及毗邻水域生态系统结构和能量流动研究

根据2000年和2006年秋季长江口及毗邻水域渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,利用Ecopath with Ecosim软件,构建2个时期的长江口及毗邻水域生态能量通道模型,比较分析了三峡工程蓄水前后长江口及毗邻水域生态系统的结构和能量流动特征.模型包含鱼类、虾类、蟹类、头足类、浮游动物、浮游植物、底栖动物、碎屑等17个功能群,基本覆盖了能量流动的途径.分析结果表明,2006年秋季长江口及毗邻水域生态系统的总生物量、系统总流量比2000年秋季有所下降,碎屑链的重要性略有降低;由于低营养级层次渔获物数量的增加,渔获物平均营养级有所下降.2个时期长江口及毗邻水域生态系统的再循环率较低,仍有较高的剩余生产量有待利用,均处于不成熟的发育期.     

鱼类栖息地模拟的比较研究—以东海鲐鱼为例

利用东海海域1997年10月、1998年3月、1999年7月和2000年1月鲐鱼渔获率及表层温度、盐度和初级生产力等环境因子数据,构建东海鲐鱼资源空间分布与环境因子间的一般线性模型(GLM)和广义加性模型(GAM),并将GLM和GAM模拟值的均值分别与实测值进行独立样本t检验及其误差分析.分析结果表明,GLM与GAM模型的独立样本t检验P值均大于0.05,因此两者都可模拟东海鲐鱼栖息地的空间分布.其中,GLM模型对鲐鱼渔获率空间分布趋势的模拟更为准确;而GAM模拟值对鲐鱼栖息地环境因子的变化比较敏感,能够解释更多空间数据的变化,因而GAM在分析鱼类栖息地与环境因子间关联程度或资源评估方面具有优势.     

基于Ecopath模型的五里湖生态系统营养结构和能量流动研究

根据2006年和2009年对五里湖渔业资源和生态环境调查数据,利用Ecopath with Ecosim软件,构建这两个时期五里湖生态系统能量通道模型,比较分析了实施净水渔业前后生态系统的结构和能量流动特征。模型包括大型、其他食鱼性鱼类、湖鲚、鲤、鲫、野杂鱼、鲢、草食性鱼类、大型虾蟹类、软体动物、其他底栖动物、浮游动物、沉水植物、其他维管植物、浮游植物、碎屑等17个功能组,基本覆盖了能量流动的途径。营养网络分析表明,增殖放养滤食性鱼类和贝类,扩大了五里湖生态系统的规模,增加了生态系统的发育程度和生态系统营养级ⅠⅡ的能量转换效率,滤食性生物与生态系统其他功能组生态位的重叠程度也有所增加。该系统各功能组间的联系加强且系统趋向稳定,但生态系统的物质流转速度和物质再循环的比例有所降低。     

蓄水运行时长对鱼类群落结构及生态类型的影响——以乌江下游银盘电站为例

为研究梯级电站修建及运行不同阶段导致的河流生境变化对鱼类群落结构和生态类型的影响,本研究于2005-2017年间在乌江下游银盘电站坝上坝下江段开展了蓄水前（2005、2008-2009年）、蓄水后两年内（2011-2012）蓄水6年后（2017年）共6个年度鱼类资源监测,采用多样性指数和多元统计方法分析了该江段鱼类种类组成、群落结构特征及其变化。6年共监测到鱼类93种,鱼类种类数随蓄水进行呈现先降低后升高的趋势。受生境变化影响,鱼类优势物种发生变化,电站蓄水前后差异较大,特别是蓄水后两年内差异尤其显著。蓄水前后鱼类群落结构也发生了变化,在61.79%的Bray-Curtis相似性水平上,蓄水前鱼类聚为一组,蓄水后两年内鱼类聚为一组,2017年单独一组,在0.05水平上差异显著。总体上看,生态类型组成上以缓流型、底层、定居性、杂食性和产粘性卵鱼类占优;蓄水后两年内中上层鱼类和静水型鱼类个体数占比显著增大。     

Integrating the standardization of catch-per-unit-of-effort into stock assessment models: testing a population dynamics model and using multiple data types

Standardization of catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) data can be integrated into stock assessment methods. We apply this method to the stock of trevally (Pseudocaranx dentex) off the west coast of New Zealand to address: (1) whether the stock assessment model explains all of the annual variation in the CPUE data, and (2) the impact on the assessment results of how the catch-at-age data are weighted. If not all of annual variation in CPUE is explained by the stock assessment model, the assessment may be statistically inadequate. The inadequacy may be in the representation of the population dynamics, in the relationship between CPUE and abundance, or due to additional variation in CPUE left unexplained by the independent variables. Catch-at-age data often have too much influence on the estimated abundance trajectory, so the sample size used in the catch-at-age likelihood function is often reduced when applying age-structured stock assessment methods. The integrated approach automatically places more weight on the CPUE data compared to the catch-at-age data, and may therefore provide an alternative to arbitrarily downweighting catch-at-age data.     

基于营养通道模型的海州湾中国明对虾生态容纳量

通过增殖放流,增加优质渔业资源、改善种群结构是渔业资源养护的重要手段,而增殖生态容量的研究是科学实施增殖放流的前提。为确定海州湾中国明对虾的生态容纳量,根据2013年连云港海州湾渔业生态修复水域的调查资料,应用Ecopath with Ecosim(EwE)软件中的Ecopath模块,构建了该区域的生态系统能量流动简易模型,计算了放流种类中国明对虾的增殖生态容纳量。结果表明:系统各功能组营养级范围在1~4.42。系统总流量9335.191 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1),系统总初级生产力3892.630 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1),系统初级生产力与总呼吸量的比值为1.331,连接指数为0.415,杂食指数为0.174,Finn循环指数为11.4%,平均能流路径为2.8系统尚处于由衰竭状态向恢复状态转变,还未恢复到成熟态。中国明对虾不是本海域的关键种,当前中国明对虾的生物量为0.04 t·km–2·a–1,中国明对虾的生态容纳量为0.846 t·km~(–2)·a~(–1)。     

运用SS3评估东太平洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)资源——复杂模型和简化模型的比较

大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)是东太平洋最重要的商业性金枪鱼鱼种,其资源评估采用的是结构复杂的Stock Synthesis 3模型(SS3).模型简化是提高资源评估效率的必要手段,但对大眼金枪鱼简化模型的效果尚未开展研究.本研究尝试从渔业数据结构的角度,将SS3复杂模型的23个渔业简化为仅含围网和延绳钓2个渔业,从而比较简化模型的评估能力.结果显示,简化模型能较为准确地描述大眼金枪鱼补充量、亲体量、捕捞死亡系数等主要时间序列的历史动态变化,对传统生物学参考点FMSY的估计也较为准确,且受陡度和自然死亡系数的影响较小,但对其他参考点的估算误差较大.陡度参数对简化模型基于Kobe图判断资源状态的准确性有重要影响,陡度较低时,简化模型能较为准确地判断资源状态.研究表明,权衡模型的评估能力和降低模型结构的复杂性,是大眼金枪鱼资源评估今后需要重点研究的任务之一.此外,对模型简化的效果评价,与采用的生物学参考点和资源状况判断标准的选择有关.     

浙江嵊泗人工鱼礁区渔业资源生态容纳量变动的研究

人工鱼礁是放置于海底以影响海洋生物资源的物理、生物或社会经济过程的人工设施。科学评价人工鱼礁对渔业资源生态容纳量的改善程度对揭示鱼礁的生态功能和指导鱼礁后续建设具有重要的理论与现实意义。人工鱼礁区鱼类和大型无脊椎动物可分为3种类型(I型、Ⅱ型和Ⅲ型),其中Ⅱ型鱼类和大型无脊椎动物身体不接触鱼礁,但在鱼礁周围游泳、在海底栖息。该生物学资料可通过拖网调查取样获得。根据2004年10月～2007年9月浙江嵊泗人工鱼礁海域渔业资源拖网调查数据,建立了模拟礁区渔业资源密度随时间变化趋势的Logistic模型,并据此求解了鱼礁海域资源数量容纳量模型。通过遗传算法求得了Logistic模型的参数。结果表明,人工鱼礁区Ⅱ型鱼类和大型无脊椎动物的原有生态容纳量约为6.00～8.03ind/km·kW,鱼礁投放所产生的新生态容纳量约为4.40～5.89ind/km·kW,容纳量随季节变化而呈周期性波动。     

A novel spatiotemporal stock assessment framework to better address fine‐scale species distributions: Development and simulation testing

Characterizing population distribution and abundance over space and time is central to population ecology and conservation of natural populations. However, species distribution models and population dynamic models have rarely been integrated into a single modelling framework. Consequently, fine‐scale spatial heterogeneity is often ignored in resource assessments. We develop and test a novel spatiotemporal assessment framework to better address fine‐scale spatial heterogeneities based on theories of fish population dynamic and spatiotemporal statistics. The spatiotemporal model links species distribution and population dynamic models within a single statistical framework that is flexible enough to permit inference for each state variable through space and time. We illustrate the model with a simulation–estimation experiment tailored to two exploited marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio, Oregoniidae) in the Eastern Bering Sea and northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis, Pandalidae) in the Gulf of Maine. These two species have different types of life history. We compare the spatiotemporal model with a spatially aggregated model and systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal model based on simulation experiments. We show that the spatiotemporal model can recover spatial patterns in population and exploitation pressure as well as provide unbiased estimates of spatially aggregated population quantities. The spatiotemporal model also implicitly accounts for individual movement rates and can outperform spatially aggregated models by accounting for time‐and‐size varying selectivity caused by spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that spatiotemporal modelling framework is a feasible and promising approach to address the spatial structure of natural resource populations, which is a major challenge in understanding population dynamics and conducting resource assessments and management.     

A geostatistical approach for the stock assessment of the edible sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus, in four coastal zones of Southern and West Sardinia (SW Italy, Mediterranean Sea)

Quantitative surveys of the edible sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus, were conducted in four fishing zones of Sardinia (Southern Italy, Mediterranean Sea), in Autumn 2007. A total of 120 stations were geo-located along a bathymetric gradient ranging from 0 to 10 m. A geostatistical method was used to evaluate spatial patterns in density and to estimate harvestable stocks. Variographic analyses showed that the isotropic Gaussian and spherical models successfully explained the spatial structure of sea urchin assemblages in these areas. Density maps obtained by punctual kriging showed that sea urchin populations tend to be patchy rather than uniform in their density distribution. A combination of mapping and size categories was used to generate diverse scenarios of harvestable stocks (specimens ≥50 mm in diameter) before the start of the current fishing season. We conclude that the geostatistical approach, which takes into consideration the spatial autocorrelation structure of the populations in small areas, seems to be a good estimator of P. lividus density and biomass and for the assessment of its harvestable stocks, and thus provides an initial step towards a scientific approach to the management of local sea urchin fisheries.     

莱州湾芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区生态系统能量流动及仿刺参生态容量评估

基于2019年莱州湾芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区渔业资源调查数据,利用Ecopath with Ecosim 6.6 (EwE 6.6)软件构建了芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区生态系统Ecopath模型,系统分析了芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区生态系统的能量流动规律和结构特征,估算了仿刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)的生态容量。Ecopath模型由16个功能组组成,基本涵盖了芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区生态系统能量流动的主要过程。结果发现,生态系统各功能组的营养级范围为1.000~3.978,其中,花鲈(Lateolabrax maculatus)处于最高营养级;生态系统总转换效率为10.6%,来自初级生产者的转换效率为10.8%,来自碎屑的转换效率为10.1%;生态系统总流量为2 596.108 t/(km2·a),其中44%来自碎屑;系统总初级生产量/总呼吸量为1.454,连接指数为0.402,系统杂食指数为0.211,Finn´s循环指数和平均路径长度分别为8.860%和2.980。结果表明,芙蓉岛人工鱼礁区生态系统成熟度和稳定性较低,食物网结构较简单。根据模型计算得出,仿刺参的生态容量为131 t/km2,是现存量的6.55倍,具有较大的增殖潜力。     

A simple model for predicting ecological impacts of introduced aquatic organisms: a case study of common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., in the Sepik-Ramu River Basin, Papua New Guinea

Abstract Practical models for predicting the impacts of introduced biota are urgently required to assess the benefits and risks of introductions. The simple method described predicts the ecological consequences of an introduction through potential competition between species based on elementary niche classifications. The model's predictions are tested against field data for common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., which escaped from fish farms during a study of the feasibility of fish stock enhancement in a large river basin. Recorded effects of carp are based on pre- and post-carp gillnet catches, observations of local villagers, socio-economic censuses and other sources of data. The predicted ecological interactions of common carp are in broad agreement with those recorded. The method can assist pre-introduction assessments and is particularly useful where limited data exist. In this particular study, common carp have contributed significantly to an improved capture fishery by fortuitous accident; production from aquaculture was negligible. High niche overlap between carp and certain resident fish species is predicted and this may be of more consequence in highland than lowland regions. Organisms introduced/transferred for aquaculture should be assessed within a much wider forum. The intended impacts of an introduction/ transfer, which in the case study were entirely erroneous, is an area in need of considerable attention.     

A three-dimensional numerical model for a mariculture nitrogen cycle: case study in Shizugawa Bay, Japan

A numerical model is developed for mariculture management, which consists of: (1) calculation of spatial distribution of PON (particulate organic nitrogen) using simulated current, (2) calculation of spatial distribution of DO (dissolved oxygen), (3) calculation of DON (dissolved organic nitrogen), (4) calculation of spatial distribution of DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen), and (5) calculation of the horizontal distribution of accumulated matter which is supplied by deposits from the mariculture of fish. This model is capable of calculating the detailed spatial distribution of PON, DON, DIN and DO by dividing the bay into many grid points. It also takes into consideration the effects of feed and fish in each raft, and the loading of DIN from rivers. The model is applied to Shizugawa Bay, in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. The model elucidated the oxygen cycle among ecological compartments. The amount of dissolved oxygen supplied by photosynthesis is much greater than the consumption through respiration by fish and all other conditions for mariculture of fish are favourable in this bay.     

Re‐evaluating the effect of wind on recruitment in Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) using an environmentally‐explicit stock recruitment model

A previous study documented a correlation between Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment in the Gulf of Maine and an annual index of the north component of May winds. This correlation was supported by modeling studies that indicated strong recruitment of Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod results from high retention of spring‐spawned larvae in years when winds were predominately out of the north, which favor downwelling. We re‐evaluated this relationship using updated recruitment estimates and found that the correlation decreased between recruitment and wind. The original relationship was largely driven by two recruitment estimates, one of which (2005 year‐class) was highly uncertain because it was near the terminal year of the assessment. With additional data, the updated assessment estimated lower recruitment for the 2005 year‐class, which consequently lowered the correlation between recruitment and wind. We then investigated whether an environmentally‐explicit stock recruit function that incorporated an annual wind index was supported by either the original or updated assessment output. Although incorporation of the annual wind index produced a better fitting model, the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and the implied unexploited conditions were not appropriate for providing management advice. These results suggest the need for caution in the development of environmentally‐explicit stock recruitment relationships, in particular when basing relationships and hypotheses on recruitment estimates from the terminal years of stock assessment models. More broadly, this study highlights a number of sources of uncertainty that should be considered when analyzes are performed on the output of stock assessment models.