An Integrated Assessment Model for Fine Particulate Matter in Europe

Exposure to fine particles in the ambient air is recognized as a significant threat to human health. Two pathways contribute to the particle burden in the atmosphere: Fine particles originate from primary emissions, and secondary organic and inorganic particles are formed from the gas phase from the emissions of 'conventional' pollutants such as SO₂, NO_x, VOC and NH₃. Both types of particulate matter can be transported over long distances in the atmosphere. An integrated assessment model for particulate matter developed at IIASA addresses the relative importance of the different types of particulates, distinguishing primary and secondary particles and two size fractions. The model projects these emissions into the future and seeks cost-effective strategies for reducing health risks to population. The model integrates the control of primary emissions of fine particles with strategies to reduce the precursor emissions for the secondary aerosols. Preliminary results addressing the PM_2.5 fraction of both primary and secondary particulate matter indicate that in Europe the exposure to particulates will be significantly reduced as a side effect of the emission controls for conventional air pollutants (SO₂, NO_x, NH₃).     

A Computational Approach Based on GIS Technology for the Development of an Anthropogenic Emission Inventory of Gaseous Pollutants in Greece

This paper describes a computational system developed for the compilation of an anthropogenic emission inventory of gaseous pollutants for Greece. The inventory was developed using a geographical information system integrated with SQL programming language to provide high temporal gridded emission fields for CO, NO₂, NO, SO₂, NH₃ and 23 non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) species for the reference year 2003. Activity and statistical data from national sources were used for the quantification of emissions from the road transport, the other mobile sources and machinery sectors and from range activities using top-down or bottom-up methodologies. Annual emission data from existing national and European emission databases were also used. The emission data were spatially and temporally disaggregated using source-specific spatiotemporal indicators. On national scale, the road transport sector produces about 60% of the annual CO and NMVOC total emissions, with gasoline vehicles being the main CO and NMVOC emissions source. The road transport is responsible for approximately half of the higher alkanes and for more than half of the ethene and toluene emissions. The maritime sector accounts for about 40% of the annual total NO_x emissions, most of which are emitted by the international shipping subsector, whilst SO₂ is emitted mainly by the energy sector. The evaluation of the emissions inventory suggests that it provides a good representation of the amounts of gaseous pollutants emitted on national scale and a good characterisation of the relative composition of CO and NO_x emission in the large urban centres.     

Towards a Science-Based Integrated Ozone-Fine Particle Control Strategy

Epidemiology studies relating health effects to ambient levels of ozone and fine particles have led to the modification of standards in the United States for these pollutants (substitution of an 8-h standard for ozone at 80 ppbv, and addition of 24-h and annual standards for fine particles). The interrelationships of these pollutants in the atmosphere suggest the need for an integrated, science-based strategy for their control. Secondary ozone formation has been controlled through emission controls on VOC and NO_x precursors. Fine particles are secondary products largely resulting from the oxidation of precursors (SO₂, NO_x, and VOCs). The key intermediates in both types of secondary process are free radical species and the photochemically labile compounds that produce them in the atmosphere. However, due to the complex and nonlinear nature of the processes, reductions in precursors may lead to unexpected changes in ozone and fine particle formation rates. For example, reduction in NO_x emissions may reduce ozone and nitric acid levels, but lead also to increased rates of sulfate formation in clouds and increased ammonia availability for neutralization of acidic sulfate aerosols. Reductions of SO₂ may reduce aerosol sulfate levels in the summer, but have no effect in other seasons. Reductions in VOCs may reduce ozone levels in urban core areas, but not elsewhere. An integrated, regionally and seasonally specific, emission reduction strategy is needed to cost-effectively reduce both ozone and fine particle levels.     

Development of a Multi-Resolution Emission Inventory and Its Impact on Sulfur Distribution for Northeast Asia

Emissions in East Asia for 1993 by administrative units and source types are estimated to support regional emission assessments and transport modeling studies. Total emission of SO_x, NO_x, soil NO_x, N₂O, and NH₃ are 24 150, 12 610, 1963, 908, and 8263 kton yr^-1, respectively.China's emission contribution is the highest for every species.The area sources are the most significant source type for SO_x and NO_x, but the fraction due to mobile source is highest for NO_x. Major LPSs are located from the middle to the east part of China, south and middle-west part of South Korea, and the east part of Japan. The area sources of SO_x show a pattern similar to population density, whereas NH₃ shows a strong landuse dependency. Detail emissions analysis reveals higher SO_x emission `cores' within each province. The estimated emissions are used to estimate sulfur deposition in the regions. The seasonal average sulfur distribution amounts are estimated from the ATMOS2 chemical transport model. The results showed anti-correlation with temperature for sulfur (SO₂ + SO₄ ^-2) concentrations and a positive correlation with rainfall for deposition.     

Nitrogen Deposition and Strategies for the Control of Acidification and Eutrophication across Great Britain

It is now recognised that a multi-pollutant, multi-effect approach needsto be adopted to address the range of problems caused by atmosphericpollution. In this paper we use a relatively simple trajectory model (HARM)to explore the coupled behaviour of sulphur dioxide (SO₂),oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and ammonia (NH₃) andthe possible effects of future reductions in emissions of these pollutantson depositions of S and N across Great Britain. The performance of HARM withrespect to concentrations and depositions of NO_y andNH_x is assessed by comparison with data from nationalmonitoring networks. A range of emissions scenarios are modelled and theeffects of these reductions on critical loads exceedance are explored usingthe critical loads function (CLF), which allows both the acidification andeutrophication effects of S and N deposition to be explored simultaneously.Spatial variations in the reductions of deposition of S and/or N required tomeet critical loads are described. Reductions in emissions of the precursorsof strong acids (SO₂ and NO_x) yield benefits interms of ammonium deposition as a result of their coupled chemistry. Thedevelopment of strategies to control nitrogen deposition will need to take this non-linearity in to account.     

A Mixed-Integer Optimization Technique for Developing a Sulfur Emission Control Strategy for China

The economical development and increasing population of China and other East Asian countries is expected to be accompanied by an increase in the emission of air pollutants. The objective of this study is to develop an effective and economical emission control strategy for sulfur in East Asia. There are existing methods for controlling sulfur emission, such as changing to lower sulfur content fuel, introducing desulfurization devices for emission sources, and promoting efficient energy use. The applicability of such measures is restricted by both energy supply and control cost, amongst other concerns. As a case study, an optimal control strategy based on the estimated sulfur emission for China in 2010, is simulated using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming technique with several restrictions that satisfies, among other constraints, the atmospheric environment requirements for SO₂ and the soil load limit for SO₄ deposition.     

Projections of SO2, NOx,NH3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia Up to 2030

Starting from an inventory of SO₂, NO_x, VOC and NH₃ emissions for the years 1990 and 1995 in East Asia (Japan, South and North Korea, China, Mongolia and Taiwan), the temporal development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development. The projections are prepared at a regional level (prefectures or provinces of individual countries) and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region. The emission estimates are presented with a spatial resolution of 1×1 degree longitude/latitude. First results suggest that, due to the emission control legislation taken in the region, SO₂ emissions would only grow by about 46 percent until 2030. Emissions of NO_x and VOC may increase by 95 and 65 percent, respectively, mainly driven by the expected increase in road traffic volume. Ammonia, mainly emitted from agriculture, is projected to double by 2030.     

Control techniques and strategies for regional air pollution control from energy and industrial sectors

The technological options currently available to reduce SO₂ and NO_x emissions including abatement technologies and high efficient energy conversion technologies are reviewed. The energy emission model EFOMENV (Energy Flow Optimization Model-Environment) which takes into account all relevant emission reduction measures is used to determine the cost optimized energy pathway, the ranking of reduction measures and the corresponding costs as a function of given reduction levels of SO₂ and/or NO_x emissions for different scenarios in selected Central and Eastern European countries. It is shown that restructuring of the energy system is a major emission reduction option in all countries but with a potential varying greatly from country to country depending mainly on the existing structure and the age of the plants and on the development of the energy demand. The emission reduction costs for SO₂ in Central and Eastern European countries are 50% to 70% lower than in Western countries due to high potential of fuel/technology switching and energy saving measures. Cost efficient measures to reduce CO₂ emissions also lead to a significant decrease of SO₂ and NO_x emissions.     

Studies on Atmospheric Pollution,Acid Rain and Emission Control for their Precursors in Chongqing,China

Chongqing City in China has suffered from serious air pollution and acid rain caused by low graded raw coal (sulfur=ca. 3≈5%, ash=ca. 30%) combustion. In this paper, the situation of atmospheric pollution and acid rain in Chongqing are discussed, the reduction efficiency for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) with the bio-briquetting of the raw coal that is one of countermeasures for emission control of air pollutants due to domestic consumes was determined. The research indicated that the frequency of acid rain was high, more than 50% at urban area, and its pH was low, about 4.5. Under our experimental conditions, the reducing efficiency of sulfur SO₂ emission from high sulfur coal-biomass briquette amounted to 87%. The field investigation indicated that SO₂ indoor concentrations in case of using bio-briquette dropped to 1/2≈1/3 of the raw coal.     

Characterization of Cement Plant Emissions in Turkey

In cement plants in Turkey CO, NO₂, SO₂ and particulate emissions were measured using standard measurement techniques and equipment. Emission factors are calculated by dividing the emission rates by capacity of production at the time of measurements for each plant. The results of this study show that the dominant emissions from cement production in Turkey is CO followed by NO₂, dust and SO₂ in decreasing order. National averages for the emission factors are calculated and compared to international emission factors. On average the Turkish dust emission factor is higher than the German factor, however NO₂ and SO₂ emission factors are lower in Turkey.     

Detectability of step trends in the rate of atmospheric sulphate deposition

Step trend analyses are performed on acid deposition rates using a combination of monitored sulphate deposition data and a long-range transport of acid precipitation (LRTAP) model. The step trend analyses consider Sudbury's emissions and eastern North America's emissions to explore strategies for reducing SO₂ emissions such that a decrease in sulphate deposition is detected in a specified time period. Results indicate Sudbury's emissions could be reduced with significant detectable reductions in sulphate deposition occurring at the Muskoka region. Significant detectable reductions do not occur elsewhere due to the variability of monitoring data ‘masking’ the small change in sulphate depositions associated with abatement. Reductions in eastern North America's emissions would result in widespread evidence of significant detectable reductions.     

Recent developments in technologies and policies in Germany to control acid deposition

In Germany, acidifying emissions have decreased since the mid-eighties, but are still at levels that cause environmentally harmful acid deposition and thus make further action necessary. The driving force behind such actions is the precautionary principle laid down in pollution control legislation. It is implemented as a requirement to minimize emissions and mandates the parties concerned to formulate and implement emission control requirements based on the state of the art, and to update them as technological advances are made. As the scope for restructuring energy supply and switching to environmentally friendlier sources is very limited in Germany, strategies for controlling inevitable NO_X and SO₂ emissions will continue to be directed at further improving the technical systems (besides necessary changes in lifestyle). Since the large-scale retrofit programmes were initiated in the eighties, technological advances have provided some scope for a further tightening of emission reduction requirements for SO₂ and NO_X. In addition, there is some potential for further reducing these emissions through more energy-efficient demand- and supply-side technology.     

Sulphate in Sudbury, Ontario, Canada, Lakes: Recent Trends and Status

Sulphur emissions from the Sudbury, Ontario, metal smelting industry have affected thousands of lakes in Ontario, Canada. Reductions in these emissions during the 1970's resulted in reduced lakewater SO₄ concentrations and other water quality changes in the 1970's and 1980's. Further declines in lakewater SO₄ concentrations have accompanied additional recent S emission reductions achieved by 1994. Recent (1997) SO₄ concentrations are still related to distance from the Sudbury smelters. A strong inverse relationship with distance is evident to about 45 km, and is most pronounced in lakes within about 20 km. In lakes beyond 45 km, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which was correlated with hydrological response time and total phosphorus concentrations, was the best correlate with recent SO₄ concentrations, indicating that some slowly-flushing, oligotrophic lakes still exhibit a "Sudbury" effect. Most lakes beyond 45 km, however, showed SO₄ declines and recent SO₄ concentrations comparable to lakes around Dorset, ～200 km from Sudbury, suggesting that these lakes are now most affected by the long-range atmospheric transport of S.     

Forecast of Sulfur Deposition in Japan for Various Energy Supply and Emission Control Scenarios

In order to contribute to the analysis and solution of regional scale environmental problems in East Asia, we developed a tool for the comprehensive assessment of alternative policy options to improve air quality. This tool projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxide and estimates the geographical pattern of sulfur deposition resulting from emissions. Sulfur deposition in Japan through 2030 was forecasted for various energy supply and emission control scenarios using the analysis tool. Future sulfur depositions were calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emission for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation scenario, anthropogenic SO₂ emissions in East Asia would grow by 34 percent and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase by approximately 20 percent between 1995 and 2030. This increase in sulfur deposition over these 35 years is sligthly less than the contribution from volcanic emission to sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical dirty scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several grids which face the Sea of Japan would double by 2030.     

A gaussian-box modeling approach for urban air quality management in a northern chinese city—I. model development

A Gaussian-box modeling approach was presented in this paper to examine the urban air quality due to multiple point- and area-source emissions in the northern Chinese city of Fengnan, which is associated with a deteriorated air quality as a consequence of industrialization and rapid urban growth. A 3-D multi-box (3DMB) air quality model was developed to predict air quality due to area-source emissions. It improved upon the conventional box models by allowing consideration of more details in spatial variations of emission sources and meteorological conditions. The modeling domain was divided into various layers within the mixing height, while each layer was associated with a number of sub-boxes. A multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian modeling approach was then applied to predict the air quality in different sub-boxes that are associated with multiple point-source emissions. Thus the Gaussian-box modeling approach could effectively simulate impacts of both area- and point-source emissions but also reflect more details of the spatial variations in source distributions and meteorological conditions. This modeling approach was employed to predict daily average SO₂, TSP and PM₁₀ concentrations for each sub-box during the heating and non-heating seasons, respectively. The analysis of the mean normalized error of the modeling results demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the developed method, and the presented method could provide more useful and scientific bases for developing effective urban air quality control and management strategies.     

Atmospheric Emission Inventory for Natural and Anthropogenic Sources and Spatial Emission Mapping for the Greater Athens Area

A spatially, temporally and chemically resolved emission inventory for particulate matter and gaseous species from anthropogenic and natural sources was created for the Greater Athens Area (GAA; base year, 2007). Anthropogenic sources considered in this study include combustion (industrial, non-industrial, commercial and residential), industrial production, transportation, agriculture, waste treatment and solvent use. The annual gaseous pollutants (????x, SOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), CO and ????₃) and particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM_2.5?C10) emissions were derived from the UNECE/EMEP database for most source sectors (SNAP 1?C9; 50?×?50 km²) and their spatial resolution was increased using surrogate spatial datasets (land cover, population density, location and emissions of large point sources, emission weighting factors for the GAA; 1?×?1 km²). The emissions were then temporally disaggregated in order to provide hourly emissions for atmospheric pollution modelling using monthly, daily and hourly disintegration coefficients, and additionally the chemical speciation of size-segregated particles and NMVOCs emissions was performed. Emissions from agriculture (SNAP 10) and natural emissions of particulate matter from the soil (by wind erosion) and the sea surface and of biogenic gaseous pollutants from vegetation were also estimated. During 2007 the anthropogenic emissions of CO, SOx, NOx, NMVOCs, NH₃, PM_2.5 and PM_2.5?C10 from the GAA were 151,150, 57,086, 68,008, 38,270, 2,219, 9,026 and 3,896 Mg, respectively. It was found that road transport was the major source for CO (73.3%), NMVOCs (31.6%) and NOx (35.3%) emissions in the area. Another important source for NOx emissions was other mobile sources and machinery (23.1%). Combustion for energy production and transformation industries was the major source for SOx (38.5%), industrial combustion for anthropogenic PM_2.5?C10 emissions (59.5%), whereas non-industrial combustion was the major source of PM_2.5 emissions (49.6%). Agriculture was the primary NH₃ source in the area (72.1%). Natural vegetation was found to be an important source of VOCs in the area which accounted for approximately the 5% of total VOCs emitted from GAA on a typical winter day. The contribution of sea-salt particles to the emissions of PM_2.5 was rather small, whereas the emissions of resuspended dust particles exceeded by far the emissions of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5?C10 from all anthropogenic sources.     

The role of nitrogen oxides in oxidant production as predicted by the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM)

Regional oxidant distributions produced under various atmospheric conditions and emission scenarios are investigated using the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM). RADM is a complex, evolving three-dimensional Eulerian model that describes the chemistry, transport and deposition of tropospheric trace species including SO₂, sulfate, NO _x and volatile organic compounds as well as O₃, other major oxidants and acids. The model calculates the short-term temporal evolution of atmospheric trace gas concentrations and their deposition on the regional scale. This study is focused on oxidant production in the eastern United States and southeastern Canada. The influence of atmospheric conditions is explored by comparing three characteristic winter, summer and spring/fall cases. Base-case 1985 emissions of SO _x , NO _x , volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NH₃ and CO are specified using the comprehensive pollutant emissions inventory developed as part of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). The perturbed case, which represents projected anthropogenic emission changes for 2010, indicates changes in daily total 80 km grid average NO _x emissions ranging from increases of 75% to decreases of 45% and VOC emission changes ranging from increases of 65% to decreases of 20%. The largest NO _x emission changes occur in the northeast, and the largest VOC changes occur in the Gulf Coast area. Ground level grid average midday O₃ concentrations for the 1985 emission cases are highest (on the order of 70 to 100 ppb) in the New York City and Houston metropolitan areas for the summer and spring cases; the summer case also indicates relatively high grid average O₃ concentrations of greater than 80 ppb in the southeast. Winter case values are much lower than summer O₃ values throughout the region, with highs of 40 to 50 ppb occurring in the southeast and the Great Lakes area. Changes in NO _x and other emissions under the complex 2010 emissions scenario for the summer case result in maximum O₃ concentration reductions of 10% in the Houston area and increases in O₃ of a few percent in some rural areas of the southeast. This study underscores the need for more comprehensive assessment of the complex relationships among regional emission changes, oxidant production and atmospheric conditions.     

NMVOCs and CO Emission Inventory in East Asia

For analyzing acidification in East Asia, long range transportation models has been developed, which require emissions inventories of the precursors. SO₂ and NOx emissions inventories were reported previously; here emissions of NMVOCs (Non methane volatile organic compounds) and CO in East Asia; China, Republic Korea, Japan and Taiwan area, are estimated. For the years 1994–95, the total emissions of NMVOC and CO in East Asia are estimated at 17.7 and 94.1Tg/y respectively. Small coal boiler and biomass use for residences are dominant sources of NMVOCs in the area, especially in China. More than half of CO emission comes from biomass use in residences in China. Regionally at east costal area in China high density emission is seen in the 1×1 degree grid emission map.     

Estimation of source-receptor matrices for deposition of NOx-N

The contributions of the anthropogenic sources of NO_x from various combinations of contiguous U.S. states or Canadian provinces to integrated deposition across selected states or provinces are estimated with the Advanced Statistical Trajectory Regional Air Pollution (ASTRAP) model. The model assumes linearity between emissions and deposition, and uses the same parameterization methods, although with different rates, as in simulations of transport and deposition of SO_X. Vertical distributions of emissions for the two classes of pollutants are substantially different in the gridded inventories used in simulations, with a weighted mean effective emission height of 160 m for NO_X and 310 m for SO_X. This might be expected to lead to an effective transport distance before deposition shorter for NO_X than for SO_X. However, the calculated fraction of NO_X emissions deposited within the contiguous United States and Canada south of 60 deg N (57%) is not greatly different from the fraction calculated for SOX emissions (54%). This suggests that there may be compensating factors in the horizontal distribution of NO_X emissions, and in the lower dry deposition velocities for NO/NO₂ than for SO₂ in ASTRAP.     

Acidifying emissions in The Netherlands

The emission of acidifying compounds to air in the Netherlands, expressed as acidifying equivalents, consisted in 1992 mainly of NO_X (45%), NH₃ (35%) and SO₂ (20%). Transportation, agriculture and large combustion plants each contributed about 30% to the national total emission of acidifying compounds. The emissions from transportation activities mainly consisted of NO_X, while in agriculture NH₃ emission strongly dominated. Combustion processes in large combustion plants resulted both in SO₂ emissions (especially from refineries) and NO_X emissions (especially from public power plants). The total emission of acidifying substances decreases steadily in the Netherlands. The emission in 1992 was 24% lower than in 1985. It is expected to decrease further in future. The emission levels in 1992 and 1993 still are more than twice as high as the emission objective for the year 2000, set by Dutch environmental policy.