羌塘自然保护区湖泊变化及其原因分析

选取西藏羌塘自然保护区MSS、TM、ETM+数据和1[JP18]∶[JP]100 000地形图,以85° E为中心线,将研究区划分为东西两部分,解译该区域面积大于1 km2的所有湖泊。结果表明：1975-1990年,羌塘自然保护区湖泊呈退缩状态,湖泊个数由388个减少为277个,面积由6 603.3 km²减少到5 539.7 km²,面积减少达16.1%;2005年,湖泊个数比1990年增加164个,达441个,湖泊总面积9 652.2 km²,比1990年增加4 112.5 km²,增幅74.2%。在区域上,表现为东部变化幅度大于西部。同时,重点分析了研究区附近的狮泉河、改则、班戈、申扎、那曲、安多6个气象站1978-2007年的数据。结果显示：6个代表气象站年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年降水量均呈上升趋势,其中东部上升幅度较大,西部变化不明显;年蒸发量呈减少趋势。降水是影响湖泊变化最主要的因素。     

多源NDVI在玛纳斯河流域荒漠化监测中的应用

为了对玛纳斯河流域荒漠化进行长期准确地监测,在分析MOD13A1-NDVI(归一化植被指数)与同期8 km×8 km AVHRR-NDVI数据的基础上,建立了基于两种不同NDVI数据的荒漠化分级指标体系。利用相应的分类体系进行了流域荒漠绿洲带1982~2008年荒漠化的遥感监测,并结合19892、000和2008年8月Landsat-5/TM数据,分析了3种不同NDVI数据在空间上的差异性,并进一步分析了荒漠化演变的原因。结果表明:(1)同期AVHRR、MOD13A1和Landsat-5/TM监测结果显示出相似的空间差异性,绿洲带北部紧连古尔班通古特沙漠地区植被覆盖稀疏,NDVI较小;南部绿洲灌溉区植被覆盖较好,NDVI整体上较大。植被覆盖具有显著的空间差异性,这与地形因素、水分、热量条件、地貌形态和土壤理化性质等气候环境因子存在联系。(2)近20 a来,绿洲带外围不断向南迅速扩展,由20世纪80年代初的11 200 km2增加到90年代末的12 672 km2,增加了1 472 km2;绿洲带内部以石河子垦区为中心,NDVI呈辐射状逐年线性增加。(3)近8 a来,绿洲内部变化不大,荒漠带中盐渍化土地增加显著,2008年面积为1 906 km2,较2000年增加了1 712 km2,东部丘间盆地被开垦耕地面积196 km2。     

Influence of weather on the efficacy of dichlorprop-P/MCPA and trihenuron-methyl

The influence of weather on the efficacy of dichlorprop-P/MCPA and tribenuron-methyl on annual weeds in spritig barley was studied in the field during 4 years at six locations in southern Sweden. The herbicides were applied at one-eighth to three-quarters of the full dose at three application times with approximately 6-day intervals. Weather stations, placed in the experiments, recorded climatic data, Maximum herbicide efficacy was obtained when spraying 1 week after the cotyledon stage with half or three-quarters of the recommended dose. Dose-response curves were estimated and the ED₈₀ doses were calculated. On average, the herbicide dose required to obtain an effect of 80% was about 40% of the recommended dose. The influence of weather was analysed for seven different periods: 7 and 2 days before and after herbicide application, 1 day before and after application, and the day of herbicide treatment. The most pronounced eftects of weather were found for the day of and the day before herbicide application, revealing the strong influence of weather on herbicide uptake and plant metabolism. High air tetnperature and low global radiation during the day of treattnent reduced the ED₈₀ dose of dichlorprop-P/MCPA, whereas the ED₈₀ dose of tribenuron-methyl increased. For both herbicides, precipitation and high soil temperature increased the ED₈₀ dose, which reflects the importance of rain on herbicide uptake and the effect of soil temperature on plant growth. The R² values were higher in the analyses of dichlorprop-P/MCPA than of tribenuron-methyl, indicating that the effect of dichlorprop-P/MCA was more weather-dependent than that of tribenuron-methyl. Separate analyses of the ED₈₀ doses for Brassica napus L., Chenopodium, album L. and Stellaria media (L.) Vill. generally resulted in increased R² values. but otherwise gave results similar to those for the total weed population. Although the analyses revealed significant effects of indivtdual weather factors on herbicide efficacy, it was not possible to discern a consistent and causal relationship between weather and herbicide performance.     

Five decades of glacier changes in the Hulugou Basin of central Qilian Mountains,Northwest China

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in the arid regions of Northwest China. Glaciers provide a large proportion of water resources for human production and living. Studies of glacier changes and their impact on water resources in the arid lands are of vital importance. A joint expedition was carried out in 2010 for investigating glaciers in the Hulugou Basin, which is located in the upper reaches of Heihe River. Therefore, glacier changes in the Hulugou Basin of central Qilian Mountains during the past 50 years were analyzed in this study by comparing topographic maps, satellite images, digital elevation models and field observation data from different periods. Results showed that the total area of the 6 glaciers in the Hulugou Basin decreased by 0.590±0.005 km2 during the period 1956–2011, corresponding to a loss of 40.7% over the total area in 1956. The average area reduction rate of the 6 glaciers is 0.011 km2/a. During the past five decades, the glacier shrinkage was accelerated. The changes in glacier ice surface elevation ranged from –15 to 3 m with an average thinning of 10±8 m or an annual decrease of 0.23±0.18 m(0.20±0.15 m/a water equivalent) for the period 1956–2000. The area of Shiyi Glacier in the Hulugou Basin decreased from 0.64 km2 in 1956 to 0.53 km2 in 2011 with a reduction rate of 17.2%. The Shiyi Glacier had been divided into two separated glaciers because of severe melting. Comparative analysis showed that glacier shrinkage in the Hulugou Basin is more serious than that in the other regions of Qilian Mountains.     

基于MaxEnt模型预测梨火疫病菌的潜在地理分布

为探究梨火疫病菌解淀粉欧文氏菌Erwinia amylovora在全球的潜在地理分布,基于其全球分布数据和筛选得到的环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型对其在当前气候和未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行预测,并利用刀切法和皮尔逊相关性分析法筛选对梨火疫病菌分布有重要影响的环境变量。结果显示,对梨火疫病菌分布有重要影响的环境变量包括2月平均最高温度、1月平均降水量、7月平均最低温度、温度变化方差、昼夜温差月均值和7月平均降水量,表明春季和夏季的温度和降水对梨火疫病菌的分布有较大影响。在当前气候条件下,梨火疫病菌在全球的适生区分布较广,适生区总面积达到5.58×10⁷ km²,且高适生区主要分布在北美洲沿海地区、地中海沿岸和亚洲中部及东部的部分地区;梨火疫病菌在我国的适生区总面积为7.36×10⁶ km²,占全国陆地总面积的76.70%;在未来气候SSP126和SSP585情景下,梨火疫病菌在全球的适生区总面积分别为5.52×10⁷ km²和5.24×10⁷ km²。表明梨火疫病菌对我国大部分地区有潜在威胁,应加强监测与防控。     

近50 a黄河上游气候变化趋势和干湿界线波动分析

利用黄河上游地区13个气象站点1959-2008年的气候资料,研究了黄河上游地区多个气候要素的变化,以30 a为时间尺度研究气候变化趋势的可行性。结果表明：区域东南部站点呈干暖化趋势,其他站点以湿暖化为主,变湿的趋势不显著,而变暖的趋势普遍且显著;东南部向着干旱化的方向发展,其他区域不显著;年平均气温和最低气温在1959-1988年、1969-1998年和1979-2008年3个时段呈持续增加趋势,最高气温仅在近30 a呈整体增加趋势;在最低气温和最高气温的共同作用下,1979-2008年年均气温的增幅最大;低海拔站点日照时数持续、显著减少,而高海拔的玛多、达日两站则呈显著增加趋势;相对湿度恰好相反,低海拔站点多呈增加趋势,高海拔站点多呈减少趋势。区域风速总体呈下降趋势,尤其是低海拔地区和后两个时段。采用30 a为时间尺度分析气候变化具有一定的可行性。     

西藏玛旁雍错流域湖泊面积变化及成因分析

利用1975年地形图、1990年、1999-2009年TM卫星遥感影像和近35 a(1975-2009年)气温、降水、积雪日数、蒸发量等气候资料,分析研究了位于西藏阿里地区南部普兰县境内玛旁雍错、拉昂错湖泊面积变化对气候变化的响应。结果表明：在过去35 a里玛旁雍错、拉昂错面积先减少后增加,总体呈减小趋势,到2009年玛旁雍错面积为415.44 km²,拉昂错面积为261.36 km²。与1975年相比2个湖泊面积分别减少了1.56 km²和11.01 km²;受气候变暖的影响,流域附近的冰川面积也在加速退缩。对1975-2009年普兰县气象资料统计分析可知,降水量减少是导致湖泊面积缩小的主要原因,蒸发量不显著的增加及雪冰消融也是近几年湖泊面积波动变化的原因之一。     

Assessing regional scale weed distributions, with an Australian example using Nassella trichotoma

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of weed infestations over regional scales is essential for effective management of source populations and to assess future threats. To this end, the distributions of Nassella trichotoma across a study area in south‐east New South Wales, Australia, were analysed using the geographically local Getis–Ord G_i* spatial hotspot clustering statistic. The clustering of N. trichotoma observations was analysed at three infestation levels: presence (at any density), patch level and the occasional plant level. The results indicate that there are c. 578 km² of cells containing N. trichotoma in strongly clustered infestations, 11.2 km² within weakly clustered infestations distinct from the main clusters, and 55 km² that are not clustered. There are 117 km² of strongly clustered patch level cells, 3 km² in distinct but weak clusters, and none outside of a cluster area. Of the occasional plant level cells, 329 km² are strongly clustered, 6.2 km² are in distinct but weak clusters, and 19 km² are not clustered. These results provide a mechanism by which control efforts can be prioritized. The analysis approach described in this paper provides a consistent, quantitative and repeatable approach to assess weed infestations across regional scales and can be applied to any weed species for which spatial distribution data are available.     

黄土高原森林草原区退耕还林还草土壤保持效应评估

黄土高原地处生态过渡带和环境脆弱区,区内大范围的土壤侵蚀严重影响了当地的生态环境。以黄土高原森林草原区为研究对象,应用修正通用土壤流失方程,根据2000、2005、2010年气象数据及土地利用等数据,从不同坡度、植被覆盖度、土地利用类型评估了黄土高原森林草原区退耕还林还草工程的土壤保持效应。结果表明,(1)随着退耕还林还草工程的实施,林地和草地面积明显增加,分别增加2 219.41 km~2、2 205.27 km~2,研究区植被覆盖度逐渐改善。(2)2000—2010年土壤保持量增加2.41亿t,单位面积土壤保持量由3 033.15 t·km~(-2)·a~(-1)增加至5 114.86 t·km~(-2)·a~(-1),土壤保持效应显著提升。(3)研究区土壤保持效应与植被覆盖度呈正相关关系,在不同土地利用类型中,林地、草地和耕地具有较高的土壤保持效应,单位面积土壤保持量分别为5 405.57、3 598.41、3 078.81 t·km~(-2)·a~(-1)。退耕还林还草工程的实施提升了区域的土壤保持效应,但是,区内东北部由于矿产资源开采导致的植被破坏、地表塌陷以及土壤侵蚀问题亟待解决。     

Development of a forecasting model for scald,Rhynchosporium secalis,on rye in relation to climatic conditions1

In a large-scale forecasting project financed by the German Ministry of Agriculture, in collaboration with the National Plant Protection Service, data for modelling forecasting systems in field and horticultural crops are obtained and evaluated. Using climatic records from automatic weather stations and weekly disease assessments in the field, a practical model for forecasting Rhynchosporium secalis on rye has been established with a discriminant function in which temperature, leaf wetness and a disease index during the infection period were used as classification variables. This function decides on application of fungicide sprays.     

中国西北东部电线积冰气候特征及分区

选取有观测以来至2010年的电线积冰资料及1961-2010年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度及风速资料,对西北东部电线积冰的气候特征以及积冰发生时的天气条件进行分析,探讨积冰形成时的气象要素配置,指出西北东部电线积冰的气候分区。结果表明：① 10月至次年4月为西北东部电线积冰期;积冰类型主要为雾凇和雨凇,其中北部大部地区及陕西西安以雾凇为主,西南部以雨凇为主。② 1 000 m以下地区一般日平均气温在-5～4 ℃,日最低气温在-10～0 ℃,相对湿度在70%以上,风速在0～1 m•s^-1;1 000～2 000 m地区一般日平均气温在-15～4 ℃,日最低气温在-15～0 ℃,相对湿度在70%以上,风速在0～4 m•s^-1;2 000 m以上地区一般日平均气温在-15～0 ℃,日最低气温在-15～-5 ℃,相对湿度在60%以上,风速在0～8 m•s^-1时,最易出现电线积冰现象。③ 从气候角度分析,西北东部电线积冰呈西多东少,山区多于平原的分布格局,海拔较高的西南部及东南部是积冰潜在高发区,西北部、中部及东南部华山周边地区是次高发区,东部大部地区是低发区,并且积冰高发区也是持续冰灾的高发区。     

山地冰川区气温重建比较研究——以祁连山老虎沟冰川区为例

以老虎沟冰川区实地观测数据及其附近6个气象台站观测资料为基础,通过普通克里格、反距离平方、样条函数及多元回归方法插值比较,同时解译区域气候模式产品并辅以高程校正,重建本区的气温变化过程。研究表明：各插值获取的气温要素以及区域气候模式产品进行校正之后的气温要素显示较为一致的变化过程,其中普通克里格方法最为接近本区实际气温...     

新疆伊犁果子沟地质灾害风险评价及其致灾因子

近年来,由气候变化引起的新疆山区地质灾害有增加的趋势。本文选取伊犁G30高速公路果子沟段为研究对象,采用国产ZY-3立体测图卫星数据制作山区高精度DEM和地形参数,运用GIS空间分析技术评估滑坡、崩塌、泥石流地质灾害风险,并采用频率比灾害风险指数进行致灾因子的敏感性分析。结果表明:(1)ZY-3的高精度DEM能够有效的计算崎岖的地形参数,获取的坡度、坡向、地表高程、沟谷密度等能够更好地进行灾害评估;(2)通过致灾因子分析得出,植被指数、坡度、坡向、地表高程、沟谷密度、地层岩性、断裂密度7个因子均与地质灾害相关,其中,植被指数最为敏感,在道路两侧影响尤为突出,这与道路建设、过度放牧等人类活动密切相关;(3)果子沟区域的地质灾害风险以道路边坡滑坡为主,分布在G30高速公路两侧,对道路造成的危害大,因此,G30高速公路两侧属于地质灾害高发区,需重点防治。     

基于MaxEnt模型预测外来入侵植物刺果瓜在中国的潜在地理分布

为明确外来入侵植物刺果瓜 Sicyos angulatus在我国的潜在地理分布,基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件及全球分布数据,在历史气候条件及未来气候条件下 （低强迫情景SSP126和高强迫情景SSP585）预测刺果瓜在中国的潜在地理分布。结果显示, MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积（area undercurve, AUC）值为0.977,表明模型具有较高的可靠性;气温季节性变化、最热月的最高温、最干月降水量和最湿季节的降水量是影响刺果瓜在中国潜在地理分布的4个关键环境变量;历史气候条件下刺果瓜主要发生在中国东部、中部和西部,适生区总面积占中国陆地总面积的23.29%;未来气候条件下,刺果瓜在中国的适生区范围有所减少, SSP126和SSP585情景下刺果瓜在中国的适生区总面积分别为186.10×10⁴ km²和162.68×10⁴ km²,分别占中国陆地总面积的19.35%和16.91%,但还是主要覆盖黄淮海平原夏播玉米区和南方丘陵玉米区等产区,质心由南向北移动。     

Aerial Spraying with Endosulfan against Glossina morsitans morsitans in the Okavango Delta area of Botswana

Abstract

Trials to determine if the costs of eradicating G. morsitans by aerial application of endosulfan (Park et al 1972) might be reduced, were carried out using lower quantities of the pesticide. Area dose rates were varied by altering; the swath width, the insecticide output per unit flying time and the insecticide concentration. The trials were judged by the reduction of the adult tsetse population after a single application. Results indicated that eradication of G. m. morsitans under the conditions prevailing in N.W. Botswana, is possible by the repeated application, at 21 day intervals, of 20% endosulfan at 3.0 //km² (0.6 kg a.i./km²). Applications should be made at a swath interval of 274m, using a single AU 3000 Britten-Norman Micronair unit to produce spray droplets mostly smaller than 40μm diam. The cost (1973) of each application (aircraft and insecticide only) was approximately US $13.00/km² for an area in excess of 1000 km².     

河西走廊东部近50年气候变化特征及区内5站对比分析

利用河西走廊东部武威市五个气象站近50年气温、降水资料,运用统计学的方法,详细分析了当地气温、降水的时空变化特征,并进行了对比分析.结果表明,北部川区气温远大于南部山区,随海拔高度的升高气温逐渐降低;北部川区降水远小于南部山区,随海拔高度的升高降水逐渐增多.各地年平均气温呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代以来升温明显.从平均...     

基于净初级生产力的春小麦生产潜力及估产研究——以甘肃省白银区为例

利用2010年白银区春小麦生长季(4—7月)空间分辨率为250 m的MODIS影像和气象站点的气象数据,通过CASA模型建立了基于MODIS数据的春小麦净初级生产力遥感估算模型,估算出白银区春小麦生长季的净初级生产力(NPP),通过春小麦NPP与干物质转换关系计算出春小麦生产潜力。结果表明:白银区南部春小麦的NPP和生产潜力均大于北部地区,其NPP最小值为42 g C·m-2·a-1,最大值为402 g C·m-2·a-1,且春小麦的生产潜力有明显的季节性规律。根据春小麦生产潜力与实际产量的拟合关系建立了产量估测模型,并对该模型做了精度验证与实用性评价,结果显示该估产模型均方根误差RMSE为76.33 g·m-2,相对均方根误差RMSEr为23.51%。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Corythucha ciliata</Emphasis>, a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">Platanus</Emphasis> pest in Turkey

An invasive Tingidae, the platanus lace bug Corythucha ciliata (Say, 1832) (Hemiptera: Tingidae), which specializes on Platanus spp., was found for the first time in Turkey in 2007; it was recorded from a 120 km² area in the northwestern part of the country. Infestations occurred in an area between Taşkesti and Abant in Bolu Province, which is located near major cities and two main motorways. The pest species is newly spreading in Turkey, causing noticeable damage to Platanus orientalis trees.     

基于MaxEnt和ArcGIS的黑腹尼虎天牛潜在地理分布预测

为明确我国检疫性有害生物黑腹尼虎天牛Neoclytus acuminatus的潜在地理分布范围，基于MaxEnt模型、ArcGIS软件及全球分布数据预测当前气候和未来气候（2个情景）条件下黑腹尼虎天牛在全球和中国的潜在分布区域，并分析影响黑腹尼虎天牛分布的关键环境变量。结果显示，MaxEnt模型的曲线下面积（area under curve，AUC）为0.962，表明模型预测结果可靠；影响黑腹尼虎天牛潜在地理分布的5个关键环境变量分别是5月平均降雨量、11月平均最高温度、温度变化方差、7月平均降雨量和最湿季度平均气温，贡献率分别为40.5%、33.2%、23.9%、2.2%和0.1%。在当前气候条件下，黑腹尼虎天牛在全球的适生区较广泛，总面积约为3 928.63×10⁴ km²，且在我国湖北、安徽及浙江等省存在高适生区和中适生区；在未来气候条件下，黑腹尼虎天牛在全球范围内的适生区总面积会进一步增加，并且在我国的高适生区面积也会进一步扩大。     

Ecological determinants and risk areas of Striga hermonthica infestation in western Kenya under changing climate

Striga hermonthica (Del.) Benth is a parasitic weed that is damaging major cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although Striga is recognised as an agricultural scourge, there is limited information available indicating the extent of its growth and spread as impacted by the changing climate in Kenya. This study investigated the impact of current climate conditions and projected future (2050) climate change on the infestation of Striga hermonthica in the western Kenya region. Specifically, the study aimed to predict Striga hermonthica habitat suitability in five counties in the western Kenya region through using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and bioclimatic, soil, topographic and land use, and land cover (LULC) variables. Striga hermonthica geolocations were collected and collated and ecological niche models were developed to determine the habitat suitability. The results showed that approximately 1767 km² (10% of the total study area) is currently highly suitable for Striga hermonthica occurrence. The future projections showed a range between 2106 km² (19% of the total study area) and 2712 km² (53% of the total study area) at the minimum carbon (RCP 2.6) and the maximum carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5) respectively. Elevation, annual precipitation, LULC, temperature seasonality and soil type were determined to be the most influential ecological predictor variables for Striga hermonthica establishment. The study revealed the importance of using climate, soil, topographic and LULC variables when evaluating agricultural production constraints such as Striga's prevalence. The methodology used in this study should be tested in other Striga affected areas.