Technical and Economic Effects of Culling and Reproduction Strategies in Dairy Cattle Herds Estimated by Stochastic Simulation

Abstract

The objective of this study was to create operational replacement guidelines under various conditions concerning reproductive performance, supply of replacement heifers and individual milk yield. Nine culling strategies were defined by three average insemination periods and by three discrimination policies between high- and low-yield cows. The effect of the nine culling strategies was analysed with combinations of heat detection rate and time of initiation of breeding after calving under two replacement heifer purchase policies: purchase (open herd) and no purchase (closed herd). The strategies were evaluated using a stochastic simulation model that simulated production and reproductive status in herds composed of dual-purpose cattle with additional young stock. The evaluation of the strategies was made in a situation without a milk quota under typical Danish conditions in 1993. Results showed that discriminating between high- and low-yield cows improved net revenue significantly in open herds but not in closed herds. Irrespective of the purchase policy, using longer insemination periods increased net revenue significantly in herds with poor reproductive performance; whereas net revenue in herds with good reproductive performance tended to increase by using shorter insemination periods. The culling rate is a poor figure when evaluating culling strategies and culling strategies should be assessed at herd level rather than per cow.     

Reproductive performance and milk production of Israeli-Holstein cows with different supplementation during the dry period]

In three field trials comprising 602 Israeli-Holstein dairy cows, the effect of the dry period ration on reproductive performance, culling rate and milk production was investigated. The cows were fed in groups. The basic dry period rations consisted for two herds of medium quality cereal hay and for one herd of corn straw, which were fed ad libitum. In each herd dry cows were assigned to an experimental and control group. Cows of the experimental group were supplemented with 1.5 to 3 kg of lactating cows mixed ration (LMR), whereas in the control group the amount of supplement was increased by the factor two or 3.3. In the experimental group the amount of the supplement was calculated to achieve levels of net energy and of crude protein close to NRC requirements; in the control group the level of net energy and protein was 12 to 18% higher as compared to the experimental group. The amount of LMR supplement in the experimental group of herds A, B, C were 1.5 kg, 1.9 kg, and 3 kg, respectively. In the control groups these amounts were 5 kg, 3.8 kg, and 6 kg, respectively. The groups fed moderate amounts of LMR supplement had a higher conception rate at first insemination, a higher percentage of cows conceiving and fewer cows culled in the consecutive lactation than cows fed increased amounts of LMR supplement. The lactational incidence of reproductive disorders and the milk production were not affected by the differences in feeding during the dry period. Reproductive performance and culling rate appeared to be more favorable for cows fed moderate amounts of supplement during the entire dry period or during the last 3 to 4 weeks of the dry period.     

The economic value of days open in Holstein cows in Japan based on simulated changes in conception rate

Increasing herd‐life length and culling parity with increasing conception rate (CR) is necessary to increase lifetime profit from dairy cow production. Economic values of days open (DO) were determined by calculating changes in fertility traits, herd‐life length, and milk yield when the simulated CR were changed in increments of 1% from ?5% to 5% from the basal levels, which were obtained for Hokkaido and regions other than Hokkaido separately. When CR increased, number of artificial inseminations, DO, and milking length decreased. Furthermore, culling parity, and annual milk yield increased. Herd‐life length increased in Hokkaido and decreased in the other regions. The economic values of CR were 1,623.8 to 946.8 yen and of DO were 857.4 to 399.0 yen. Relative economic values of milk yield to days open per genetic standard deviation were higher in the other regions than in Hokkaido where the economic effect of selection for DO was expected to be equal to selection for 305‐day milk yield and herd life. If the survival rate of multipara cows in the other regions increases, then the economic value of DO would similarly increase in Hokkaido.     

Simulated economic effects of improving the sensitivity of a diagnostic test in paratuberculosis control

Low sensitivity (Se) of diagnostic tools is often mentioned as a major problem in the control of paratuberculosis (PTB) and much effort is put into the improvement of these tests. The hypothetical perspectives of improving the Se of a milk-antibody ELISA (hereafter: milk-ELISA) used in test-&-cull strategies against PTB in dairy cattle were investigated by simulations. The current Se varies between 10 and 80%, increasing with increasing lactation stage, parity and infection stage. We simulated the effects on a dairy herd's production of improving this Se to 80% (independent of these factors) and assumed no concomitant decrease in specificity. By using a PTB model called PTB-Simherd, 12 scenarios were simulated to study three test-&-cull strategies in each of four herds with 200 dairy cows. To show the maximal effect of using test-&-cull with such an improved test we simulated three strategies: (1) no testing, (2) testing with milk-ELISA test with the current Se and culling of positive cows immediately and (3) testing with milk-ELISA test with a Se improved to 80% and culling positive cows immediately. The four herds were defined by a moderate (25%) or high (80%) initial true within-herd prevalence (including young stock), and a poor or good heat-detection success of 40 or 60%. We assumed that these factors influenced the effects of improving the Se of the milk-ELISA. Management both concerning calf management and in general was specified to represent a typical Danish herd. Using an improved milk-ELISA was predicted to reduce the prevalence of PTB more effectively than the current ELISA, and over 10 years bring the production of a herd with moderate initial prevalence up to a production level comparable to a non-infected herd (unlike if the current ELISA had been used). In a herd with high initial prevalence (80%) milk production was increased more by using the improved milk-ELISA, but after 10 years the replacement rate was still very high causing problems with having enough recruitment animals-especially in high-prevalence herds with poor reproductive performance. Economically important measurements in all four herds benefited from the improvement of the test over a 10-year period. However, in the first 3-5 years the improved test would be more expensive to use than the current test, due to increased replacement (reduced net annual revenue per cow euro15 on average) but after that, net annual revenue increased continuously; after 10 years it was euro70-90 higher, than if the current milk-ELISA was used. Also, the milk-ELISA test with its current Se seemed to be profitable already after 2 years in high-prevalence herds using a test-&-cull strategy based on the milk-ELISA alone.     

Estimate of the direct production losses in Canadian dairy herds with subclinical Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection

The objective of this study was to estimate the annual losses from Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) for an average, MAP-seropositive, Canadian dairy herd. A partial-budget simulation model was developed with 4 components of direct production losses (decreased milk production, premature voluntary culling, mortality, and reproductive losses). Input values were obtained primarily from a national seroprevalence survey of 373 Canadian dairy farms in 8 of 10 provinces. The model took into account the variability and uncertainty of the required input values; consequently, it produced probability distributions of the estimated losses. For an average Canadian dairy herd with 12.7% of 61 cows seropositive for MAP, the mean loss was $2992 (95% C.I., $143 to $9741) annually, or $49 per cow per year. Additional culling, decreased milk production, mortality, and reproductive losses accounted for 46%, 9%, 16%, and 29% of the losses, respectively. Canadian dairy producers should use best management practices to reduce these substantial annual losses.     

Use of partial budgeting to determine the economic outcome of Staphylococcus aureus intramammary infection reduction strategies in three Ohio dairy herds

Efforts to reduce the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus intramammary infection were monitored in 3 Ohio dairy herds. Bacteriologic culturing of milk from all lactating cows in each herd was completed multiple times to identify infected cows and monitor reduction. Partial budgeting techniques were used to determine the economic outcome of the reduction program. Of particular emphasis was the economic impact of culling to maintain or achieve milk quality premium payments on the basis of bulk tank somatic cell counts. The prevalence of S aureusinfected cows was reduced in each herd. Culturing of milk from all lactating cows appeared to be an effective method to identify infected cows. Although numbers were limited, it also appeared that culturing of composite quarter samples was effective as a herd screening test to identify S aureus-infected cows. Bacteriologic culturing had a negative financial impact in all 3 herds. Using partial budgeting to assess the economic impact of the programs, it was determined that 2 herds experienced negative financial impacts as a result of an excess culling rate when compared with a 12-month baseline period prior to the initiation of the project. All herds had increased milk production per cow during the study as measured by the mature-equivalent method. However, when actual production was considered, increased milk production in each herd was not as great as that of other Ohio herds enrolled on Dairy Herd Improvement Association testing programs.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Effect of culling age of does on milk and meat production in Japanese-Saanen goats

A functional herd dynamics model was developed to estimate the effect of culling age on milk and meat production for Japanese-Saanen goats in relation to changes in prices of milk and meat. The model simulates life cycle production of bucks and does and their kids. Every production trait is first modelled as an individual trait and thereafter as a trait in the herd using a herd dynamics model. At the individual level, the survival curve function, the litter size function and the production traits function are combined. Data on growth and lactation were used to fit growth and lactation curves to estimated parameters using non-linear least squares regression technique and used in the production traits function. Using herd dynamics, the individual level functions are combined with the total number of animals function to estimate the total herd output and income efficiency at the herd level. Here, variables of culling days including the effect of difference in meat price value among goat categories (bucks, does, male kids and female kids) are used. Analysis of interrelations among the culling days of does, the price ratio and the income efficiency indicated that optimal culling days of does was shortened with an increase in the price ratio of meat to milk. However, when meat price value was different among goat categories according to actual situation of Japanese goat production, the optimal culling days of does could be fixed regardless of the change in price ratio and was calculated as 1730 days. This functional herd dynamics model can aid in decision-making regarding culling under several situations especially when there is a wide fluctuation in prices at local markets.     

Animal grouping strategies, sources of variation, and economic factors affecting nutrient balance on dairy farms

Increasing environmental concerns are forcing animal industries to reevaluate current feeding practices and their relationships to nutrient excretion. Previous modeling efforts have used simple budgets of nutrient flows through animals, assuming a constant productivity level. This assumption is not valid if animals are not in a steady state. A response model of dairy cow production to levels of net energy for lactation (NEL) and crude protein (CP) was derived from an abrupt threshold and plateau model of individuals. Monte Carlo techniques were used to simulate populations of cows fed diets of various NEL and CP concentrations, to derive the optimum allocation of NEL and CP, and to estimate how the optimum is affected by herd production potential, prices of inputs, and uncertainty of parameters. The simulation showed that a 25% increase in milk production reduced N excretion per kilogram of milk produced by 8%. Improved knowledge of the biology involved and feed composition can reduce N excretion by an additional 8%. Grouping strategies and number of groups used affect optimum allocation of nutrients. An optimum of six milking groups per production unit was derived from the simulation and would reduce N excretion by 8% compared to herds fed in one group.     

Causes of culling and death in sows.

Over a 4-year period, the annual number of culled sows in 9 Danish herds averaged 54.8 per cent of the year-sows and the number of culled sows in per cent of total number of farrowings averaged 25.8 (Table I). -- The culling rate varied considerably from herd to herd within the same year and from year to year (Tables I and II); however, the average annual culling rate for all the herds only presented small variations (Table II). The average number of litters reared per sow before culling was 3.6. The culling rate was higher in pedigree herds than in commercial herds, and it was highest in the small pedigree herds (Table III). The hygiene level in the herds and the introduction of new female breeding stock did not influence the culling rate (Table IV). A proportionally lower percentage of the sows was culled in herds where the dry and pregnant sows were housed in stalls and/or were tethered, as compared to herds where these sows were housed in pens (Table V). -- The culling rate in the age groups of sows with less than 8 farrowings remained at approximately the same level (Table VI). The main reason for culling was infertility problems, which were recorded in 41.4 per cent of the culled sows, while 16.7 per cent of the sows were culled because their litters were poor and/or small (Table VII). The mortality rate among the culled sows was 11.9 (Table VII), and the main causes of death were chronic pyogenic infections, which occurred in 25.5 per cent of the fatal cases (Table VIII). Certain aspects concerning the recording and calculation of culling rates in the different herds are discussed and it is emphasized that the culling rate per se may not have any direct relationship to the productivity in the herd.     

Study on some risk factors and effects of bovine ketosis on dairy cows from the Galicia region (Spain)

The study was designed to determine the relation between β‐hydroxybutyrate (BHB) concentrations in milk from dairy cows after calving and the length of the previous lactation, the dry period and the 305‐day normalized production, and to assess the influence of BHB concentrations on culling and test‐day milk productions and somatic cell counts (SCC) throughout the lactation that followed the BHB measurement. The data used in the study were obtained from 59 187 cows in the Galicia region (Spain). BHB determination was performed using Fourier‐transformed infrared spectrometry from the milk samples collected from each cow on the first post‐partum test day. For statistical analysis, the following methods were applied: (i) ordinal regression to assess the effect of the length of the previous lactation, the dry period and the 305‐day normalized milk production on milk BHB, (ii) a Cox model to estimate the influence of the BHB concentration on risk of culling (overall and for a variety of reasons) and (iii) linear regression to assess the link between BHB and the milk yield and SCC obtained from each of the tests day performed throughout lactation. The probability of having higher BHB concentrations increased when the length of the previous lactation (p = 0.006), the dry period (p = 0.003) and the 305‐day normalized milk yield (p = 0.005) increased. However, the slight increase observed (especially for the case of the dry period and the 305‐day milk yield) would not justify that measures be implemented to reduce these traits. Higher concentrations of BHB led to an increased risk of culling due to ‘death’ (p ≤ 0.001) and ‘urgent slaughter’ (p ≤ 0.002) (both causes of involuntary culling). It also led to a reduction in milk production (p < 0.001) and an increase in SCC (p < 0.001) in the post‐partum; from that moment onward (including peak lactation), there were no differences in those two parameters depending on the BHB levels.     

Culling on low milk yield and its economic consequences for the dairy herd

Voluntary culling on low milk yield and the economic returns for herds with a stable number of milk cows was investigated for spring calving dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland. The analysis was conducted at annual involuntary removal rates: 15, 20 and 25% and replacement costs as percent of beef value 94, 126, 157%. Varying cow replacement rate above involuntary removal rate by voluntary culling increased milk sold per cow in year 16 to a maximum of +5 to +10% after practicing a fixed strategy for 16 years. Greatest absolute and relative gains in yield occur from voluntary culling at the lowest involuntary replacement rate. Voluntary culling up to 3 to 8 percentage units above involuntary cow replacement rate maximizes economic returns per cow in herd when the market price for replacement heifers exceeds 150% of their beef value. Maximum voluntary culling may be practiced for prices near or below beef value.     

The incidence, cost and factors associated with foot lameness in dairy cattle in south-western Victoria

A survey of 73 dairy farms in south-western Victoria was conducted to assess the cost and mean herd incidence of foot lameness for the period from calving to the end of November, 1985, and to identify the herd, management and environmental factors associated with foot lameness. The mean herd size was 125 cows (range 82 to 220). Lameness occurred in 64 (88%) herds, and the mean herd incidence was 7.0% (range 0.0 to 30.9%). The main clinical signs associated with lameness were the presence of overworn and/or bruised soles, or stones lodged in the interdigital cleft. Factors associated with lameness were: property and herd size, age of cow, bail feeding, voluntary entry into the bails, and features of the farm track including its length, the presence of steep slopes, the type of surface material, presence and treatment of broken sections and maintenance including rolling history. The association of these factors with specific clinical signs was examined. The mean cost was estimated to be $42.90 per lame cow due to loss of production, treatment, the culling or death of lame cows, and extra man hours spent managing lame cows. It was concluded that the site, construction, maintenance and use of the farm track were of major importance to the incidence of lameness in herds in this area and recommendations for reducing lameness are made.     

Association between milk production, somatic cell count and bacterial dermatoses in three dairy cattle herds

OBJECTIVE: To determine the correlations between three bacterial dermatoses in cattle, milk production and bulk-milk somatic cell count (BMSCC). DESIGN: Field observations in three dairy cattle herds. METHODS: Milk production, BMSCC, fertility and all herd diseases were recorded by computerised dairy management systems. Each herd was visited twice weekly and the clinical signs, course of diseases and morbidity and culling rates were noted. Bulk-tank milk was sampled twice monthly and analysed for somatic cell count. Bacteriological and histological examinations were carried out from samples collected from affected animals in the respective herds. RESULTS: The acute exudative form of dermatophilosis was diagnosed only in first-calving cows. The morbidity rate was 53% and the culling rate was 16% of the affected animals. The BMSCC increased by a factor of 2.4 times, and there was an average loss of milk production of 30%/cow/day in affected animals. Ulcerative lymphangitis was diagnosed in first-calving cows (22%) and older cows (15%). The culling rate was 28%. The BMSCC increased by a factor of 17.3 times, and the average loss of milk production was 5.5%/affected animal/day. Papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) was diagnosed in first-calving cows (25%) and in older cows (18%). The culling rate was 8%. The BMSCC increased by a factor of two times, and the average loss of milk production was 1.7%/affected animal/day. CONCLUSIONS: The correlations between three skin diseases (ulcerative lymphangitis, dermatophilosis, papillomatous digital dermatitis), milk production and BMSCC have been found to be unfavourable.     

Impact of a Mastitis control program in Valdres,Norway, during 1982–1985

The present study examined the effect of the mastitis control program (MCP) on milk production, incidence of mastitis, incidence of teat lesions, culling, log₁₀ of the bulk tank milk somatic cell count (LBMSC) and economic returns in Valdres, Norway, during 1982–1985. The major economic impact of the MCP was due to improved milk quality and to a lesser degree due to increased milk production. This might be explained by the Norwegian policy aimed at reducing the milk surplus through production quotas. The net present value of MCP, using a 15% discount rate, for an average 12-cow herd was 5599-3372 Nkr ($800-482) for production within or above the milk production quota, respectively. Since the program was provided free of charge to the individual farmer, this was also the net benefit to the MCP-participating farmer.     

REVIEW ARTICLE: An integrated view on how the management of the dry period length of lactating cows could affect mammary biology and defence

The dry period is necessary to facilitate cell turnover in the bovine mammary gland and to optimize milk production in the next lactation. An 8‐week dry period has long been the golden standard of management for dairy cows. Genetic improvements and new management technologies have led to higher milk production and a need for re‐evaluation of the dry period length. Over the last decade, dry period length has been proposed to be shortened or eliminated mainly from an economic point of view. However, the influence of modified dry period length on the immune defence of the bovine mammary gland and the occurrence of new intramammary infections has not yet been appreciated. The objective of this review is to discuss the bovine mammary gland biology, defence and systemic health when the dry period length is modified. Shortening or eliminating the dry period may minimize or remove the impact of milk accumulation at dry off, thereby lessening the immunodeficiency of the dam that is characteristic of this period. Composition of mammary secretions may change and the extent of tissue remodelling may be reduced when the dry period is reduced or eliminated. Additionally, impact of the dry period length on energy and nutritional status, and on hormonal and local regulatory factors, lead us to hypothesize that changing the dry period length might also affect the response to intramammary infection. It is concluded that there is a need to integrate mammary gland biology and defence mechanisms in studies dealing with modified dry period lengths.     

Clinical acidosis in a Gippsland dairy herd

OBJECTIVE: To report on spontaneous clinical and subclinical acidosis in a large dairy herd, to evaluate the diets and feeding strategies involved, and to report on measures of rumen function in the cows affected. DESIGN: A Gippsland dairy herd was sampled as part of a wider randomised cross-sectional study that examined the prevalence, risk factors for, and effects of, acidosis on rumen function of dairy cattle. Three herds on the farm were involved in the study: the transition herd (cows 3 weeks prior to calving), the very fresh lactating herd (1 < days in milk < 10, herd 1) and the fresh lactating herd (10 < days in milk < 120, herd 2) including a small lame herd fed separately. The transition cows were fed 2 kg dry matter triticale per cow per day and hay with an estimated total dry matter intake of 4.8 kg per cow per day. The lactating cow diet included 6.75 kg dry matter triticale per cow per day with total concentrate fed being 8.1 kg dry matter per cow per day in the milking parlour. Silage, lucerne cubes, hay and pasture (herd 2 only) was also fed to the lactating cows with the estimated total dry matter intake for cows in herds 1 and 2 being 13.7 kg and 20.8 kg per cow per day respectively. Three primiparous and five multiparous cows in early lactation (< 100 days in milk) were randomly selected from each of two lactating herds: herds 1 and 2. Rumen fluid was sampled from each cow by both rumenocentesis and stomach tube. The rumenocentesis samples were tested for pH at the time of sampling. Stomach tube samples were frozen and subsequently tested for volatile fatty acid, ammonia, and D- and L-lactate concentration. RESULTS: In the very fresh herd, there was a high prevalence of severe lameness and scouring, coupled with a mean rumen pH 5.67, low mean total volatile fatty acid concentration 71.0 mM and high mean concentrations of L- and D-lactate, (7.71 mM and 7.31 mM), respectively. Cows in the fresh herd had moderate signs of scouring and lameness. A lame herd comprising approximately 50 cows separated from the fresh herd was also present on the farm. The mean rumen pH of the fresh herd was 5.74 and mean rumen concentrations of volatile fatty acids, ammonia, L- and D-lactate were within ranges considered normal. CONCLUSIONS: The transition diet failed to supply sufficient energy and protein for maintenance of cows of this live weight in late gestation. The diet fed to the very fresh herd was low in effective fibre and contained an excessive content of non-structural carbohydrate in the form of processed, rapidly fermentable grain. The sudden change from the transition diet to the diet fed to the very fresh herd probably also precipitated the outbreak of acidosis. This case report provides unique detail, including information on diets and rumen parameters, of an outbreak of acidosis in a pasture-fed herd.     

Milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia--an evaluation of parameters on incidence risk, diagnosis, risk factors and biological effects as input for a decision support system for disease control.

The present review analyses the documentation on incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects of milk fever and subclinical hypocalcaemia. It is hereby evaluated whether the existing documentation seems sufficient for further modelling in a decision support system for selection of a control strategy. Several studies have been carried out revealing an incidence of milk fever most often in the level of 5-10%. Few studies indicate that the incidence of subclinical hypocalcaemia is several times higher than milk fever. The diagnosis based on clinical or laboratory methods or based on presence of risk factors is outlined. The clinical symptoms of milk fever are highly specific and the disease level may thus be determined from recording of treatments. Diagnosis of subclinical hypocalcaemia needs to include laboratory examinations or it may be determined by multiplying the incidence of milk fever by a certain factor. From the documentation on risk factors, it is very complex to predict the incidence from the exposure level of the risk factors. Due to uncertainty, sensitivity analyses over a wide range of values for each parameter are needed. The documentation of cow characteristics, nutrition, environment and management as risk factors are described. Among cow characteristics, parity or age, body condition and production level were found to be important. Risk factors associated with nutrition included most importantly dietary cation-anion difference and calcium level whereas the importance of general feeding related factors like type of feed stuff and feeding level were less clear. Environment and management included season, climate, housing, pasturing, exercise, length of dry period and prepartum milking. Several of the parameters on environment and management were confounded among each other and therefore firm conclusions on the importance were difficult. The documentation of the effect of milk fever includes the downer cows, reproductive disorders, occurrence of other diseases and the effect on milk production, body weight and culling. The reproductive disorders included most importantly dystocia, uterine prolapse, retained placenta, metritis and repeat breeding, and occurrence of other diseases included ketosis, displaced abomasum and mastitis. The documentation was substantial and often quantifiable within certain limits. Overall it is concluded that the present documentation on milk fever concerning incidence, diagnosis, risk factors and effects seems sufficient for a systematic inclusion in a decision support system. A model on milk fever should take into consideration the variation in biological data and individual herd characteristics. The inclusion of subclinical hypocalcaemia would be more uncertain and probably should await further documentation on possibilities of determining the herd level incidence and also the effect of this condition on production.     

干奶期奶牛乳房炎防控

乳房炎是影响奶牛健康、牛奶产量及品质、造成牧场经济损失最严重的疾病之一。约2个月的干奶期是防治奶牛乳房炎最关键的时期。本文基于干奶期的乳腺变化,分析干奶期乳房炎高发原因,提出全群及选择性干奶治疗、乳头末端保护方法、营养及卫生方面的饲养管理方法,为防控奶牛乳房炎、提高牛群生产表现及牧场经济效益提供科学参考。     

Estimation of genetic parameters for functional longevity in the South African Holstein cattle using a piecewise Weibull proportional hazards model

Non‐genetic factors influencing functional longevity and the heritability of the trait were estimated in South African Holsteins using a piecewise Weibull proportional hazards model. Data consisted of records of 161,222 of daughters of 2,051 sires calving between 1995 and 2013. The reference model included fixed time‐independent age at first calving and time‐dependent interactions involving lactation number, region, season and age of calving, within‐herd class of milk production, fat and protein content, class of annual variation in herd size and the random herd–year effect. Random sire and maternal grandsire effects were added to the model to estimate genetic parameters. The within‐lactation Weibull baseline hazards were assumed to change at 0, 270, 380 days and at drying date. Within‐herd milk production class had the largest contribution to the relative risk of culling. Relative culling risk increased with lower protein and fat per cent production classes and late age at first calving. Cows in large shrinking herds also had high relative risk of culling. The estimate of the sire genetic variance was 0.0472 ± 0.0017 giving a theoretical heritability estimate of 0.11 in the complete absence of censoring. Genetic trends indicated an overall decrease in functional longevity of 0.014 standard deviation from 1995 to 2007. There are opportunities for including the trait in the breeding objective for South African Holstein cattle.