Assessing vulnerability of forests to climate change in South Korea

This study demonstrated a framework to assess vulnerability of forests to climate change. We focused on how alterations of temperature and precipitation might affect forest type distributions and carbon-related functions. In particular, our framework considered three sectors of forest type distribution, net primary production, and soil carbon storage. Future projections were derived from mechanistic models for South Korean forests under the A1B scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Forest type distributions were simulated by the Hydrological and thermal analogy group model, while the MAPSS and CENTURY1 models estimated forest carbon flux/storage. We quantified normalized vulnerability indices for each sector. Our results indicate that the overall vulnerability of forest type distribution is greater in the west central regions and southeastern inlands. The vulnerabilities of carbon flux/storage show that net primary production of South Korean forests is relatively less susceptible to climate change, but a highly vulnerable area of soil carbon storage mainly spreads from the west central to the south east region. The spatio-temporal vulnerability map with a synoptic overview from this study might be useful for policy makers in preparing adaptive measures and identifying management priorities.     

Climate change impacts,adaptive capacity,and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems

This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are summarized for the Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, Mediterranean, and mountainous regions. Especially in northern and western Europe the increasing atmospheric CO₂ content and warmer temperatures are expected to result in positive effects on forest growth and wood production, at least in the short–medium term. On the other hand, increasing drought and disturbance risks will cause adverse effects. These negative impacts are very likely to outweigh positive trends in southern and eastern Europe. From west to east, the drought risk increases. In the Mediterranean regions productivity is expected to decline due to strongly increased droughts and fire risks.     

Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.     

吉林省林业发展三级区划的调研与区划体系的建立

在全国林业发展一、二级区划体系的指导下,依据吉林省林业实际进行了三级区划。吉林省林业发展共划分为10个三级区划区域,即:吉科尔沁沙地防风固沙、湿地保护区,吉科尔沁沙地东缘防风固沙综合治理区,吉中西部农田防护、果树林区,吉中部农田防护、观赏植物区,吉中部水土保持林区,松花江中上游水源涵养、风景林区,长白山西部水源涵养、珍贵用材林区,长白山东北部水源涵养、大径木培育林区,长白山自然资源保护区,吉南部水土保持、一般用材林区。区划反映出不同区域林业生态产品、物质产品和生态文化产品的生产力差异性,实现了林业生态功能和生产力的区域落实,对各区域中长期林业发展具有指导意义。     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

气候变化与中国北方森林恢复和经营

全球气候变暖已经成为一个不争的事实。在全球气候变化背景下,我国的气温不断增高,降水和极端天气气候事件不断增多。根据气候变化现状和趋势,文章从陆地生态系统的可能响应、北方森林的分布变化、生产力、生物地球化学循环、火干扰等方面分析了气候变化对中国北方森林生态系统的可能影响,并提出了我国北方森林应对气候变化的适应性对策。     

Eucalypt plantation management in regions with water stress

Most eucalypt plantations are managed in short rotations (6–8 years) and are established in regions with water and nutritional stresses of varying degrees. The mean annual increment in these regions ranges from 20 to 45 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 depending on the level of environmental stress. Improving natural resource use efficiency by breeding and matching genotypes to sites and using appropriate site management practices is a key challenge to sustain or increase productivity. Climate change is emerging as a driving force behind many of the current issues facing natural resources, and is likely to intensify the water constraint. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted significant increases in surface air temperatures and decreases in rainfall (with more erratic rainfall patterns) over the tropics and subtropics, affecting drier regions in particular. To be truly sustainable, forest management practices must be environmentally friendly, prevent or reduce land degradation, improve biodiversity and increase resilience to climate variation and change. The main efforts should address the problems of water scarcity, low soil fertility and reduced biodiversity. Forest growers should take into account the inherent risks of different forest management systems on the regional water availability and consider reducing forest productivity in order to maintain both ecological and social equilibrium. The design and implementation of management techniques should be adapted to the specific production and protection objectives, which depend on the regional and local edaphoclimatic circumstances, water resources management, protection against soil erosion, diseases, pests, bushfires, strong winds and alien species. This paper addresses the basic requirements for integrating genetic and silvicultural strategies to minimise the water constraints in eucalypt plantations and surrounding water and native vegetation resources. We show several examples of effective forest management actions on the scale of forest stand and watershed in use in Brazil.     

不同地域天山云杉林分结构及森林经营措施研究

天山云杉(Picea schrenkiana var.tianschanica)是新疆天山山地森林的优势树种,是亚洲中部山地的特有种,在我国仅见于新疆。天山云杉林在新疆水源涵养、水土保持、气候调节等方面都起着至关重要的作用。研究天山云杉在天山东部、中部以及西部不同地域林分结构变化规律,对科学合理经营天山云杉林具有重要的指导意义。本文于2011年7月对天山东部的木垒林场、天山中部的新疆农业大学实习林场、天山西部的西天山国家级自然保护区3个不同地域上的天山云杉林分结构进行了调查,样地面积均为1hm2(100m×100m),应用负指数分布函数分别模拟天山云杉林直径分布结构并进行q检验,模拟结果为天山东部N=188.973 9e-0.0705D,q=1.33;天山中部N=63.952 5e-0.0300D,q=1.13;天山西部N=15.993 7e-0.0182D,q=1.08。研究结果表明天山东部小树密度较高,天山西部大树密度较高,依据q值法则和天山云杉树高结构和年龄结构特征分析,对生长在天山东部、中部、西部不同经度的天山云杉林应采用不同的森林经营措施,以便持续最大地实现天山云杉林森林多功能之目标。     

广东省基于连续清查资料的森林资源动态变化研究

根据1983～2007年森林资源连续清查6期数据,从资源数量、结果、质量、地理分布等四方面分析研究广东省森林资源的动态变化情况和原因。结果表明：全省林地面积、森林面积、林分蓄积和林分生物量呈增加趋势;中幼林和用材林仍是构成森林资源的主体,但阔叶林逐渐成为优势森林类型,生态林比重明显提高;虽然林地生产力在逐渐提高,但森林质量仍处于较低水平;全省森林资源分布仍呈现北部资源多、南部资源少、东西两翼沿海较平均的格局。     

Revisiting the use of soil water budget assessment to predict site productivity of sessile oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus petraea</Emphasis> Liebl.) in the perspective of climate change

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought events over the next few decades in Western Europe. Consequently, there is a crucial need for an efficient tool for field water budget diagnosis to enable forest managers to estimate tree survival and productivity. Robust estimates of water budget using soil and topography were compared for their ability to predict site yield of Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. Site yield was estimated using site index at 100 years. Ninety-nine even-aged high-forest stands located in northern France were investigated. Water budget was estimated by topographic position and soil water capacity (SWC) calculated for different soil depths down to a maximum 2.0 m. (1) Site index predictions improved when calculating SWC for increasing depths until 1.0 m. (2) Site index predictions did not improve when calculating SWC at depths below 1.0 m, thus confirming that the water contained in deep soil layers is not used for tree growth but probably contributes to tree fitness or survival by maintaining a not too negative in-tree water potential. (3) Topographic position was also a predictor of site index in addition to SWC. Practical recommendations for estimating extractable soil water content are given.     

Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada

The results of EFIMOD simulations for black spruce (Picea mariana [Miller]) forests in Central Canada show that climate warming, fire, harvesting and insects significantly influence net primary productivity (NPP), soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP) and pools of tree biomass and soil organic matter (SOM). The effects of six climate change scenarios demonstrated similar increasing trends of NPP and stand productivity. The disturbances led to a strong decrease in NPP, stand productivity, soil organic matter (SOM) and nitrogen (N) pools with an increase in CO₂ emission to the atmosphere. However the accumulated NEP for 150 years under harvest and fire fluctuated around zero. It becames negative only at a more frequent disturbance regime with four forest fires during the period of simulation. The results from this study show that changes in climate and disturbance regimes might substantially change the NPP as well as the C and N balance, resulting in major changes in the C pools of the vegetation and soil under black spruce forests.     

Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests of the United States. Productivity, measured by projected potential mean annual increment (PMAI) at culmination, is explained by the interaction of annual temperature, precipitation, and precipitation in excess of evapotranspiration through the growing season. By utilizing information regarding spatial error in the SAR model, the resulting spatial bias is reduced thereby improving the accuracy of the resulting maps. The model, coupled with climate change output from four generalized circulation models, was used to predict the productivity impacts of four different scenarios derived from the fourth IPCC special report on emissions, representing different future economic and environmental states of the world, viz., scenario A1B, A2, B1 (low growth, high economic development and low energy usage), and COMMIT. In these scenarios, regional average temperature is expected to increase from 0.5 to 4.5 °C, while precipitation shows no clear trend over time. For the west and east side of the Cascade Mountains, respectively, PMAI increases: 7% and 20% under A1B scenario; 8% and 23% under scenario A2; 5% and 15% under scenario B1, and 2% and 5% under the COMMIT scenario. These projections should be viewed as potential changes in productivity, since they do not reflect the mitigating effects of any shifts in management or public policy. For managers and policy makers, the results suggest the relative magnitude of effects and the potential variability of impacts across a range of climate scenarios.     

全球气候变化及森林生态系统的适应性管理

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的全球气候变化对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注。森林作为全球陆地生态系统的一个重要组分, 对全球气候变化的响应较为敏感。文中系统总结了全球气候变化对物种和森林类型分布、森林生态系统结构和物种组成、森林生产力、森林土壤碳氮循环和森林灾害等几个方面的影响, 以及森林生态系统管理面临的挑战, 在此基础上提出了适应未来气候变化的森林生态系统管理策略。     

竹林培育措施对土壤特性影响的研究进展

培育措施能显著提升竹林产量,同时也是影响土壤特性的重要因素。适当的竹林培育措施能够改善土壤质量、促进竹鞭生长、提高发笋率。目前,竹林培育措施主要包括整地、施肥、水分调控、抚育采伐、混交造林、林下种植等,不同的培育措施能够改变土壤特性,影响土壤质量,进而影响到竹林生产力。文章综述了传统培育措施、林分及群落结构调整、土壤改良调控等一系列竹林培育措施对林地土壤影响的最新进展,以期为改善林地土壤环境、提高竹林生产力提供借鉴。     

Projections of regional changes in forest net primary productivity for different tree species in Europe driven by climate change and carbon dioxide

? Context

Projecting changes in forest productivity in Europe is crucial for adapting forest management to changing environmental conditions.

? Aims

The objective of this paper is to project forest productivity changes under different climate change scenarios at a large number of sites in Europe with a stand-scale process-based model.

? Methods

We applied the process-based forest growth model 4C at 132 typical forest sites of important European tree species in ten environmental zones using climate change scenarios from three different climate models and two different assumptions about CO₂ effects on productivity.

? Results

This paper shows that future forest productivity will be affected by climate change and that these effects depend strongly on the climate scenario used and the persistence of CO₂ effects. We find that productivity increases in Northern Europe, increases or decreases in Central Europe, and decreases in Southern Europe. This geographical pattern is mirrored by the responses of the individual tree species. The productivity of Scots pine and Norway spruce, mostly located in central and northern Europe, increases while the productivity of Common beech and oak in southern regions decreases. It is important to note that we consider the physiological response to climate change excluding disturbances or management.

? Conclusions

Different climate change scenarios and assumptions about the persistence of CO₂ effects lead to uncertain projections of future forest productivity. These uncertainties need to be integrated into forest management planning and adaptation of forest management to climate change using adaptive management frameworks.     

Recovery of photosynthetic capacity in Scots pine: a model analysis of forest plots with contrasting soil temperature

Both aboveground and belowground climate affects net primary production (NNP) and forest growth. Little is known about how above and belowground factors interact. The BIOMASS-model was tested to simulate photosynthetic recovery over a wide range of soil temperatures created by snow cover manipulations on tree-scale plots in a 20-year-old Scots pine stand in northern Sweden. The differences in timing of soil warming between the plots covered a span of two months. Carbon assimilation in needles, sap flow, needle water potential and climatic parameters were measured in the field. The simulations revealed that an early start of soil warming gave a relatively early photosynthetic recovery and a 7.5% increase of NPP. Late soil warming delayed the photosynthetic recovery and reduced the NPP by 13.7%. This indicated that soil temperature needed to be accounted for, as well as air temperature, when analysing photosynthetic recovery and NPP in boreal environment. The effects of differences in soil temperature were reflected in the simulated photosynthetic recovery. The model did not fully capture the delay of photosynthetic recovery caused by a late soil warming. It was possible to integrate the complexity of the soil climate effects into a threshold date for soil thaw, using sapflow measurements together with information about air temperature and a day degree sum, as long as water availability was not limiting water uptake by roots. Although a more realistic mechanism than that currently in BIOMASS is desirable as climate change shifts the typical patterns of interplay between air and soil temperature dynamics.     

管涔山森林植被与土壤类型的垂直分布规律

管涔山林区是山西省八大林区之一,位于吕梁山北端,山高坡陡,海拔高差及气候条件变化幅度大,植被和土壤垂直分布比较明显。为使该林区在森林经营管理中更加合理、科学,同时亦为专家研究提供依据,该文对管涔山东、西坡植被与土壤类型的垂直分布,以及经营措施作了较详细的阐述。指出亚高山草甸带下发育着亚高山草甸土,针叶林带下发育着棕壤土,针阔混交林带下发育着淋溶褐土,灌草丛及农垦带下发育着褐土性土和栗褐土。     

A new bioclimatic model calibrated with vegetation for Mediterranean forest areas

? Water availability is one of the main factors explaining flora composition and growth in Mediterranean regions, where it may decline with climate change.

? Our goal was to develop a model for forest site assessment in Mediterranean environments, focusing on water availability to assess potential vegetation composition and productivity in any places, whatever their level of disturbance.

? We designed a statistical model, using global climatic and geographic variables, as well as detailed local topographic and edaphic variables, to compute a bioclimatic index for Mediterranean forest environments. This model was calibrated in France with a flora index from 325 old forests. The model explained 80.3% of the flora index variance. The method fills a gap in existing models, bridging scales from the region to forest sites.

? Beyond its theoretical aspect, it was designed to allow practical tools to be derived from it for decision-making and management, such as the assessment of climate change impact on vegetation, and of forest productivity. Its development and adaptation is possible in other Mediterranean regions, and in any region where water is one of the main limiting factors.

     

全球人工林环境管理策略研究

全球人工林为木材生产和缓解贫困做出了重要贡献, 在减缓和适应气候变化中起到了非常重要的作用。文中在介绍全球人工林资源的基础上, 分析了人工林对生物多样性、水分循环、养分循环和碳循环的影响和相互作用机制, 提出了人工林环境管理策略, 即建立人工林多功能经营制度、通过森林认证助推人工林可持续经营、充分利用REDD+机制提高人工林固碳效应的政策推动策略, 加强生物多样性保护、降低人工林对水循环负面影响、提高人工林的养分循环、促进人工林生态系统碳循环的生态系统完整性策略, 以及保育高保护价值区域策略和鼓励利益相关者参与人工林规划与管理策略。     

Conversion of Norway spruce forests in the face of climate change: a case study in Central Europe

Steadily increasing damage to Norway spruce forests in Europe has caused researchers and managers to consider whether these forests can be converted to more stable ecosystems. In a central European mountain region, we investigated whether management systems (MSs) specified by regional stakeholders provide sound alternatives to the currently applied management. We used the forest model Sibyla to explore whether the tested MSs differ in their sensitivity to climate change in terms of altered biomass production, stand structure, forest damage, and financial outcome. The tested MSs were no-management (NM), currently applied management (BAU), and management based on the preferences of forest managers (FM) or on the preferences of other stakeholders (OSH). With NM, spruce remained dominant during the simulation period 2010–2100, and the rate of damage significantly increased. Spruce also remained dominant with FM, while the abundance of non-spruce species significantly increased with BAU and OSH. The rate of salvage logging converged at 50% of the total harvest for all MSs up to 2050. Climate change reduced biomass production (?15%) with all MSs but had a negligible effect on biodiversity indicators. The average initial value of the simulated stands was 20,000 € ha^?1 and the nominal value in 2100 was between 1900 and 10,900 € ha^?1. The Net Present Value calculated with the 2% interest rate was negative during the whole simulation period (?5600 to ?18,500 € ha^?1 in 2100). Effect of climate change on all financial indicators was negative. Our findings indicate that secondary spruce forests are highly vulnerable and that the systems proposed by both forest managers and other regional stakeholders failed to significantly reduce forest damage and stabilize forest production.