Non-Rational Trade Behavior, Stock Price Undulation and Stock Market in China

Differing from the standpoint of classical finance theory, investors is non-rational in security market in China. They have obvious non-rational characteristics, such as overconfidence, herd behavior, disposition effect and policy dependence. Because non-rational investors have intensification effect and risk-dispersed effect, under some market condition, they may lead to stock spillover or discount when their forecast error on stock expected return is less than certain bound, but when their forecast error goes beyond the certain bound, they will impulse undulation of stock price.     

Empirical Analysis on Return Distribution and Price-volume of SZCI

This paper focuses on the day-of-the-week effect and contingency/persistency of the return rate series and the volatility in shenzhen stock index.It argues that there is not the day-of-the-week effect in return rate series but one to two weeks of contingency, while there is the day-of-the-week effect and persistency in volatility, and the trading volume is helpful to interpret the volatility.     

Mobile Marketplaces—Consequences of the Changing Governance of European Stock Exchanges

ABSTRACT Deregulation and increasing cross‐border competition in the financial industry are affecting not only firms but also those organisations that provide markets, i.e., stock exchanges. The process of changing governance structures is exemplified in this paper by the case of Deutsche Börse AG, the Frankfurt‐based main German stock exchange. The paper focuses on the reasons for relocations of national stock exchanges, and possible consequences for local firms. Secondary trading is based mainly on the exchange of (price) information, so traders were able to move away from the Frankfurt floor quite easily. However, many of them gathered together in London because of the knowledge‐intensive communications between them, e.g., interpretations of rumours, market mood, etc. On the other hand, the primary markets—firms issuing new shares—are also based on the exchange of tacit knowledge. With two spatially separated groups of users, traders in London in the secondary markets and firms in Germany in the primary market, Deutsche Börse faces a “user‐producer interface dilemma.” Thus, a possible relocation of executive functions to London combined with the complex interplay between information and knowledge exchange in financial markets could have negative consequences for the financing conditions of local firms.     

Application of Cluster Analysis in Stock Investment

The primary methods of stock investment analysis are fundamental analysis ,technic analsis and portfolio investment analysis.Based on analyzing the applicability and limitation of these methods, the paper is applying the cluster analysis in the stock investment, and pointing out it is a feasible and effective way to give advices to stock investment. Cluster analysis firstly looks into the industry factor, company factor, profitability and pullulation of each stock, so people can discover the investment value through stock'immanent value which is decided by their fundamental characters.To gather the similar stocks,a synthetic evaluation index system is erected to measure the similarity of stock all-roundly and objectively. Cluster analysis can help investors hold the whole character of stocks, make certain of investing scale and suppose the possible variation of stock price.So it will be easier for investors to choose investing occasion.     

Marginal Return Policy for Perishable Products

Considering perishable products usually have little salvage,a return policy-marginal return policy is proposad.This policy reveals the manufacturer's different attitudes toward the amount of the returned products.By applying the marginal return policy,the decisions of the manufacturer (wholesale price and return price) and decisions of the retailer(sales price and order quantity) are analyzed.Under marginal return policy,both profits of the manufacturer and retailer increase,which lead the increase of system's profit directly.At the same time,numerical experiments show that,contrast to the usual return policy,the marginal return policy could reduce the manufacturer's risks caused by the demand uncertainty.     

Empirical Analysis of Linkages Between Stock Exchange Index and Economic growth

By using the co-integration testing and error correction model (ECM), this paper investigates long-run and short-run linkages between stock exchange index and GDP. Through exploring the data from the Chinese economy, the authors get the evidences that suggest the equilibrium between stock exchange index and GDP has been broken. Then based on Expectations Theory, they reveal the reason of the stock market down-going with the increase of GDP. Then on the light of above analysis, some adviec is given.     

Power Spectrum Verification of Shenzhen Share Price Index

The non tendency processing has ben gone on to share price index,afterwards the power spectrum of share price index processed by non tendency method has been verified in order to calculate the correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponent later,and then forecast and study stock market effectively.     

Financial SEM Analyzing on Stock Evaluation in Circulation of China

Now the appraisement of stock market of China is still in the exploring phases. When stocks are appraised, people usually use expert-method or history-method aiming at different factors, especially the confirming of the factors that affect the stock evaluation and the interaction between different factors are not analyzed quantitatively, resulting in the stagnation of next researches on the whole.By applying the SEM to stock evaluation of Chinese stock market, we build a financial structural model, analyzes the influence to stock evaluation of each factor and build the experience mode value of stock evaluation of China. This can be consulted by stock evaluation and credit evaluation of China.     

Respond of Stock Trading Volume to Earning Report

Earning report is a main accounting report that transmits earning information to users. It is the core of financial reports system. Earning information is significant to users' decision making. This paper studies the respond of stock trading volume to earning report and draws the curve of trading volume before and after earning report. This paper further does a regression analysis of accidental earning and abnormal return rate, and draws the relation curve of them on the earning report date to prove stock trading volume does have remarkable respond to earning report. This research is significant to either lessen small investors blindness investment and help them make reasonable forecast to markets and regulate the disclosure of listed companies.     

Chaotic Time Series Analysis Based on Radial Basis Function Networks

A method based on radial basis function networks for forecasting chaotic time series is proposed.The nonlinear time series identification problem is formulated with a nonlinear autoregressive moving average(NARMAX)model then a new identification algorithm based on dynamic radial basis function networks is proposed.Then this method is applied to the estimation of embedding dimension for chaotic time series of Henon mapping and the confirmation of the chaotic phenomena in stock markets of China,from which one can get the desired results.Further research directions are also pointed out.     

A Study on the Influence of Decision upon Stock Price

This paper applies the multiple linear regression to study the influence of dividend decistion on the stock price.The result of research displays stock for the influence order from big to small:earnings for share,stock dividend,cash dividend.     

Pricing Methodology of the New Issue of Public Offerings in Shanghai Stock Market

Based on the efficiency market theory, considering the relationship between A share prices in Shanghai stock market and factors such as earnings per share, net asset value per share, industry price/earning ratios, this paper builds the multiple regression model between the opening A share prices at the time point of March 1st,2001 and their corresponding financial indexes. Then, according to the fact that the net asset value per share after the new issue will change in the same rate with the issuing prices, this paper calculates the relationship between them and gives out the new issue pricing model which considers 5 factors, including such factors as the A share composite indexes in shanghai stock market. This model is very meaningful and compensates the deficiency of the traditional pricing methodology which considers only the P/E ratios.     

An EOQ Model Taking Account of the Variable Selling Price Under Stock Dependent Selling Rate

In 1995, Padmanabhan and Vrat presented inventory models for deteriorating items with a constant selling price and stock dependent selling rate . Based on the result, in 2000, Kun-Jen Chung, Peter Chu and Shaw-Ping Lan devoloped the necessary and sufficient conditions of the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solutions of the profit per unit time functions without backlogging and with complete backlogging. Actually, the selling price need not be constant, it may be variable . This paper puts forward an EOQ model when the selling price is variable without backlogging, discusses the existence and uniqueness of optimum solution. The example is provided to illustrate the model. The theoretical evidence is provided for the inventory system to make management decision.     

农林牧渔指数的波动特征分析

参照上证指数的波动特征对中国股市农林牧渔指数的波动特征进行分析,研究导致股市异常波动的影响因素和股价异常波动的特点。结果表明：农林牧渔指数市场具有异常波动的特点,但是相对上证指数来说,农林牧渔指数发生暴涨暴跌的可能性会比较小一点,市场对波动冲击的反应也比较灵敏,它的“长久记忆性特征”也没有那么显著,投资者对利好消息的反应更加强烈。农林牧渔指数呈现相对中国整体股市波动比较适度的情况,在此基础上,针对农林牧渔指数进一步良好的发展提出相关政策建议。     

Analysis of Demand and Its Elasticity and Forecasting About Chinese Automobile Market

By the monthly economic date about Chinese automobile and other relevant date,an analysis is first conducted that whether the automobile stock of China can significantly adjust the demand of automobile market or not.Second,a regression model and a time-series model which are used to forecast the demand of automobile of China are founded.Third,the income elasticity and price elasticity about the monthly demand of automobile of China are also analyzed.Conclusions are that automobile stock of China can't significantly adjust the automobile demand,that lag-two income of consumer and automobile price significantly affect the monthly demand of automobile,and that the price elasticity of automobile demand is big than lag-two income elasticity.At last,some proposal is put forward.     

On the Extension of the Stock Model

Stock model of economical order batch is established under the objective of maximum total profit according to the hypotheses of constant demand rate.Based on these facts,the author suggests that the stock model of economical order batch is established under the objective of maximum total profit in system according to the hypotheses of demand rate's relying on selling price.From which one extended a model can be deduced.By using extreme-value theory,the model is proven mathematically and the method of solution is deduced for optimal order batch,optimal selling price and how to define optimal order cycle,and the sensitivity analysis has been made.One applied example is also given.     

Price Regulation Model of the Electricity Industry

The causes result in California electricity crisis are various, however, one of most important causes is the government did not feedback the electricity demands in their regulation of the electric price. This paper builds some incentive regulation models on the price, which are based on the compare of the two species of electricity price regulation model and considers the characteristics of the electricity power market in China. The models can feedback the electricity demands by mimicing compet market and can give the Chinese government some advices how to regulate the electricity price.     

中国未来林业碳汇市场价格机制设计浅析

为了研究中国林业碳汇市场,在大量研读国内外近年来关于碳汇市场的研究和大量实地调研基础上,发现目前缺乏对于中国林业碳汇市场价格机制设计方面的专项研究。而随着《京都议定书》第1承诺期的结束以及中国政府对节能减排的重视,中国强制减排是一个必然趋势,因此有必要对中国未来碳汇市场价格机制进行相关研究。在假设中国已经强制减排的前提下,对未来中国林业碳汇市场主体要素进行分析,并在此基础上,设计出最低价格加政府补贴的碳汇价格机制,以期对未来中国发展碳汇交易以及应对国际减排压力做出一些贡献。     

EMH of Stock Market by the Method of R/S

First,we comment on the theory of stock market validity of China. Basing on the analysis of the actuality of stock market validity of China, the market validity by R/S method empirically is studied also, and the conclusion is given that china's stock market is in vice-effective.     

早果、矮化、抗逆苹果砧木Y系的选育研究

为选育具有本土适应性的苹果矮化砧木,以中国原生的种质资源——野生晋西北山定子为试材,通过田间观察和综合评价,以其实生苗为自根砧嫁接苹果品种,以早花、早果为筛选指标进行初选,以连续开花和结果性能、耐旱性、抗寒性、接穗品种果实品质为主次顺序筛选指标,进一步逐级筛选,进行复选,以八棱海棠为自根砧,复选出的植株自根砧萌蘖苗为中间砧嫁接苹果品种,以矮化性、植株生长势、连续开花和结果性能、耐旱性、抗寒性、接穗品种果实品质为主次顺序筛选指标逐级筛选,进行决选。结果表明,以初选出的砧木群体(定名为Y系)作为自根砧的嫁接植株,早花早果特性和连续开花结果能力极为突出,矮化性状明显,抗寒、抗旱性较强;以决选出的4个优系为中间砧的嫁接植株,除具有Y系嫁接植株基本特性外,果实品质较好。Y系是具有较强的矮化、开花结果、抗寒、抗旱性能的苹果砧木群体,具有很大的苹果矮化砧木选育潜力;4个优系的矮化、开花结果、耐旱、抗寒性能较强,其中,Y-1(原名Y-B030)为矮化砧木,Y-2(原名Y-B094)为极矮化砧木,Y-3(原名Y-B007)为半矮化砧木,均已通过区试及品种审定。