风景园林应对气候变化的创新路径

当前气候变化导致的自然灾害增加以及国家碳达峰碳中和目标为风景园林发展带来了历史机遇,但风景园林在我国气候变化应对中的话语权仍显不足。为提升风景园林在应对气候变化中的学科地位,厘清风景园林在气候变化应对领域的责任和担当,探索风景园林气候设计的创新路径,本研究在综合分析国内外气候变化应对相关文献和政策措施的基础上,从气候变化的减缓和适应两个方面,考察了风景园林能够做出重要贡献的领域。结果显示,风景园林应该面向气候变化适应、灾害治理、碳达峰碳中和等国家需求,加强多学科的交叉融合,一方面通过气候积极性设计在城乡人居环境中固碳增汇、降低碳排放,另一方面通过景观规划设计适应气候变化,降低灾害风险,增强城乡韧性。风景园林气候设计的创新路径包括：标准化定向、空间化定量转向、生态完整性取向、多尺度面向以及教学改革创新。从以上结果可以看出,风景园林在应对气候变化中大有可为,气候设计的创新探索可推动风景园林学科范式转型和创新发展,并为应对气候变化提供中国方案。     

基于气候与物种扩散的破坏草入侵区域对未来气候变化的响应

[目的]破坏草是中国西南地区危害最为严重的入侵物种之一,每年在当地造成巨额的经济损失.扩散能力与入侵物种的危害性有关,也是决定其分布范围的重要因素,但在目前物种潜在分布和潜在入侵区域的研究中却常常被忽略.[方法]本研究旨在基于物种扩散量化气候变化背景下破坏草的入侵区域,应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对破坏草潜在适宜区进...     

Some approaches in estimating the future development of deflation processes on open and forested territories in connection with global climate change

The possibility of estimating the future change in the number of dust storms with consideration of global climate change is shown.     

Cultivar selection can increase yield potential and resource use efficiency of spring maize to adapt to climate change in Northeast China

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major maize production areas in China.Agro-climatic resources have obviously changed,which will seriously affect crop growth and development in this region.It is important to investigate the contribution of climate change adaptation measures to the yield and resource use efficiency to improve our understanding of how we can effectively ensure high yield and high efficiency in the future.In this study,we divided the study area into five accumulated temperature zones (ATZs) based on growing degree days (GDD).Based on the meteorological data,maize data (from agrometeorological stations) and the validated APSIM-Maize Model,we first investigated the spatial distributions and temporal trends of maize potential yield of actual planted cultivars,and revealed the radiation use efficiency (RUE) and heat resource use efficiency (HUE) from 1981 to 2017.Then according to the potential growing seasons and actual growing seasons,we identified the utilization percentages of radiation (P_R) resource and heat resource (P_H) for each ATZ under potential production from 1981 to 2017.Finally,we quantified the contributions of cultivar changings to yield,P_R and P_H of maize.The results showed that during the past 37 years,the estimated mean potential yield of actual planted cultivars was 13 649 kg ha~(–1),ranged from 11 205 to 15 257 kg ha~(–1),and increased by 140 kg ha~(–1) per decade.For potential production,the mean values of RUE and HUE for the actual planted maize cultivars were 1.22 g MJ~(–1) and 8.58 kg (℃ d)~(–1) ha~(–1).RUE showed an increasing tendency,while HUE showed a decreasing tendency.The lengths of the potential growing season and actual growing season were 158 and 123 d,and increased by 2 and 1 d per decade.P_R and P_H under potential production were 82 and 86%,respectively and showed a decreasing tendency during the past 37 years.This indicates that actual planted cultivars failed to make full use of climate resources.However,results from the adaptation assessments indicate that,adoption of cultivars with growing season increased by 2–11 d among ATZs caused increase in yield,P_R and P_H of 0.6–1.7%,1.1–7.6% and 1.5–8.9%,respectively.Therefore,introduction of cultivars with longer growing season can effectively increase the radiation and heat utilization percentages and potential yield.     

未来气候变化对东北三省水稻产量影响的评估

基于国际水稻所开发的ORYZA2000水稻模型和未来A2和B2排放情景下逐日气象资料(2011—2050年),系统分析了未来40年东北地区气候变化对水稻产量的影响。结果显示:在灌溉满足的情况下,其2种排放情景下对水稻生产都是正效应,单产和总产都呈增加趋势。能够种植的区域也在增加,有北移的趋势,B2情景下比A2情景下更有利于水稻产量的提高。在A2和B2排放情景下,东北区域相对基准段二氧化碳浓度升高及降水总体增加,个别年代减少、温度升高和太阳辐射增加。有利的方面是当地可以根据温度升高的幅度,适当的种植生育期较长的品种,从而增加产量;不利的方面是气温升高加速土壤有机质分解,土壤肥力下降,病虫害发生频率增加。应采取测土配方施肥措施,加强病虫害监测防治工作,保证水稻生长需要。     

全球气候变化对农业生态系统的影响及研究对策

全球气候变化在不同时间和空间尺度上对农业生态系统产生深刻的影响,并引起了世界各国科学家、政府的极大关注。本文从CO2浓度和气温升高、UV-B辐射增强等方面综述了全球气候变化对作物、土壤、畜牧业、病虫害以及气候灾害的影响,提出了全球气候变化下未来应加强研究的领域。     

African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications

Great quantities of African dust are carried over large areas of the Atlantic and to the Caribbean during much of the year. Measurements made from 1965 to 1998 in Barbados trade winds show large interannual changes that are highly anticorrelated with rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel, a region that has suffered varying degrees of drought since 1970. Regression estimates based on long-term rainfall data suggest that dust concentrations were sharply lower during much of the 20th century before 1970, when rainfall was more normal. Because of the great sensitivity of dust emissions to climate, future changes in climate could result in large changes in emissions from African and other arid regions that, in turn, could lead to impacts on climate over large areas.     

农业对气候变化响应研究的进展与前瞻:以水稻为例

以水稻作物为特定对象,围绕气候变化与作物生产,梳理和分析了气候变化对水稻产业影响的研究动态,以及基于"减排"和基于"适应"的水稻生产分别对气候变化响应的学术观点。分析发现:在当前的相关研究中,包括水稻作物在内的关于中国农作物碳排放核算体系存在着标准模糊和范围偏窄的问题,关于"减排"与"适应"协同的响应策略的研究较为缺乏。加强对这一问题的研究将有助于深化和完善农业或作物与气候变化双向互动机制的研究成果。     

Man-Made Climatic Changes: Man's activities have altered the climate of urbanized areas and may affect global climate in the future

Natural climatic fluctuations, even those of recent years, cover a considerable range. They can be characterized as a "noise" spectrum which masks possible global effects of man-caused increases of atmospheric CO(2) and particulates. Local modifications, either deliberate or inadvertent, measurably affect the microclimate. Some artificial alterations of the microlimate are beneficial in agriculture. Among the unplanned effects, those produced by urbanization on local temperature and on wind field are quite pronounced. The influences on rainfall are still somewhat controversial, but effects may extend considerably beyond the confines of metropolitan areas. They are the result of water vapor released by human activity and of the influence of condensation and freezing nuclei produced in overabundance by motor vehicles and other combustion processes. Therefore it appears that on the local scale man-made influences on climate are substantial but that on the global scale natural forces still prevail. Obviously this should not lead to complacency. The potential for anthropogenic changes of climate on a larger and even a global scale is real. At this stage activation of an adequate worldwide monitoring system to permit early assessment of these changes is urgent. This statement applies particularly to the surveillance of atmospheric composition and radiation balance at sites remote from concentrations of population, which is now entirely inadequate. In my opinion, man-made aerosols, because of their optical properties and possible influences on cloud and precipitation processes, constitute a more acute problem than CO(2). Many of their effects are promptly reversible; hence, one should strive for elimination at the source. Over longer intervals, energy added to the atmosphere by heat rejection and CO(2) absorption remain matters of concern.     

The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change

A reconstruction of past environmental change from Ecuador reveals the response of lower montane forest on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to glacial-interglacial global climate change. Radiometric dating of volcanic ash indicates that deposition occurred ~324,000 to 193,000 years ago during parts of Marine Isotope Stages 9, 7, and 6. Fossil pollen and wood preserved within organic sediments suggest that the composition of the forest altered radically in response to glacial-interglacial climate change. The presence of Podocarpus macrofossils ~1000 meters below the lower limit of their modern distribution indicates a relative cooling of at least 5°C during glacials and persistence of wet conditions. Interglacial deposits contain thermophilic palms suggesting warm and wet climates. Hence, global temperature change can radically alter vegetation communities and biodiversity in this region.     

洞庭湖流域径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究

为了定量化研究气候变化和人类活动对洞庭湖流域径流量变化的影响,采用累积距平分析和Mann-Kendall趋势检验对流域内4个水文站和16个气象站1985—2010年的水文及气象数据进行统计分析,并利用径流量变化定量分析方法,计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的改变量及其贡献率。研究结果表明:降水量的下降和潜在蒸散发量的上升导致整个洞庭湖流域及湘江、资水、沅江、澧水4个子流域突变后相对于突变前径流量分别减少了28、15、130、112 mm和102 mm;洞庭湖流域径流量的减少主要受气候变化的影响,其贡献率为64%,人类活动虽然能增加径流,但是两者的叠加影响整体上仍使径流量减少。因此,洞庭湖流域的水文干旱是自然环境演化的结果,与全球气候变化的大格局息息相关。     

艾比湖流域生态系统NPP 对气候 变化及景观动态的响应

分析气候变化与人为扰动对生态系统NPP 的影响、以及未来情景模式下NPP 的响应机制。在景观动态 模拟模型CA-Markov 模型耦合未来A1B 情景模式下的区域气候模式数据的基础上、建立生态系统NPP 对气候变化 和景观动态响应模型、实现了人类活动与气候变化对生态系统NPP 的影响定量分析。艾比湖流域2005要2020 年生 态系统NPP 增长了223.27 GgC、其中由人类活动直接导致的NPP 增加为141.01 GgC、气候变化的贡献为82.26 GgC。 近期内人类活动的直接影响仍是生态系统NPP 变化的主要因素、气候变化的影响虽然较小、但呈现逐年增长的趋 势。     

气候变化对环县退耕还林还草的影响及应对措施

退耕还林还草是环县半干旱区调整产业结构的主方向,也是生态环境建设的一项重要工作,研究气候变化对其影响有重要现实意义。本文采用气候趋势系数、气候倾向率、累积距平、YAMAMOTO检验法分析了环县1957～2012a年连续55a气象资料。结果表明：55a来,环县年平均气温增幅为0.43℃/10a,显著高于全国年平均气温增幅0.22℃/10a的水平,而且年平均气温在1987年存在偏冷向偏暖的突变现象,突变前后平均气温上升了1.2℃;55a来,年降水量呈减少趋势变化,减幅为15.4 mm/10a,年降水日数也呈减少趋势变化;气候暖干化,造成本区热量增加,光照丰富,也致使干旱、山洪、冰雹、霜冻等自然灾害加重,对退耕还林还草工作造成一定的影响。为了更好的应对气候变化带来的影响,建议该地应进行种植结构调整,由以粮为主转为以牧草、林木为主的经营模式,改善生态环境。退耕还林还草应走防护林和经济林相结合,乔、灌、草相结合的路子;应选抗旱性和抗寒性较强本土树种草种;草类、灌木可利用雨季进行直播造林,提高在荒山、荒坡、荒沟等地的造林面积,乔木宜选用植苗造林方式,在春、秋两季选取多株造林、遮阴造林等抗旱造林方法,喷洒增温保墒剂,提高成活率;大力发展“121”雨水集流等水利工程,整地蓄水保墒,以水养林养草。     

Comment on "Saturation of the southern ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change"

Unlike Le Quéré et al. (Reports, 22 June 2007, p. 1735), we do not find a saturating Southern Ocean carbon sink due to recent climate change. In our ocean model, observed wind forcing causes reduced carbon uptake, but heat and freshwater flux forcing cause increased uptake. Our inversions of atmospheric carbon dioxide show that the Southern Ocean sink trend is dependent on network choice.     

Response of dryland crops to climate change and drought-resistant and water-suitable planting technology: A case of spring maize

Climate change has a significant impact on agriculture. However, the impact investigation is currently limited to the analysis of meteorological data, and there is a dearth of long-term monitoring of crop phenology and soil moisture associated with climate change. In this study, temperature and precipitation (1957–2020) were recorded, crop growth (1981–2019) data were collected, and field experiments were conducted at central and eastern Gansu and southern Ningxia, China. The mean temperature increased by 0.36°C, and precipitation decreased by 11.17 mm per decade. The average evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat in 39 years from 1981 to 2019 was 362.1 mm, demonstrating a 22.1-mm decrease every 10 years. However, the ET of spring maize was 405.5 mm over 35 years (1985–2019), which did not show a downward trend. Every 10 years, growth periods were shortened by 5.19 and 6.47 d, sowing dates were delayed by 3.56 and 1.68 d, and maturity dates advanced by 1.76 and 5.51 d, respectively, for wheat and maize. A film fully-mulched ridge–furrow (FMRF) system with a rain-harvesting efficiency of 65.7-92.7% promotes deep rainwater infiltration into the soil. This leads to double the soil moisture in-furrow, increasing the water satisfaction rate by 110-160%. A 15-year grain yield of maize increased by 19.87% with the FMRF compared with that of half-mulched flat planting. Grain yield and water use efficiency of maize increased by 20.6 and 17.4% when the density grew from 4.5×10⁴ to 6.75×10⁴ plants ha^–1 and improved by 12.0 and 12.7% when the density increased from 6.75×10⁴ to 9.0×10⁴ plants ha^–1, respectively. Moreover, responses of maize yield to density and the corresponding density of the maximum yield varied highly in different rainfall areas. The density parameter suitable for water planting was 174 maize plants ha^–1 with 10 mm rainfall. Therefore, management strategies should focus on adjusting crop planting structure, FMRF water harvesting system, and water-suitable planting to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and enhance sustainable production of maize in the drylands.     

农户与政府气候变化认知及适应措施比较研究——以河南省为例

基于河南省314家麦农和30个基层政府部门55名工作人员的实地调研数据,对农户和政府的气候变化认知与适应措施进行比较研究。结果显示,麦农和基层政府对气候变化及其对农业生产的影响具有较高的认知度。其中,对于气候系统的变化,麦农的认知度高于基层政府;对于气候变化的具体表现和气候变化对农业生产的影响,麦农的认知度低于基层政府。研究还发现,麦农和基层政府对气候变化适应措施的选择偏好不同。超过80%的小麦种植户采取了气候变化适应措施,但主要是增加农药化肥投入和增加灌溉等被动性适应措施,基层政府倾向选择营造农田防护林和推广农作物新品种等主动性适应措施。对于气候变化适应的政策支持,加强气候变化相关的教育和培训、推荐农作物新品种、暴雨和干旱预警是麦农和基层政府的共同选择。     

流域尺度重金属行为模拟及其对不同气象因子的响应特征研究

模拟重金属的流域尺度行为有利于更好地理解重金属对生态系统和人类的潜在不利影响,而探究重金属在不同气象情景下的迁移转化规律有利于流域环境风险分析和环境管理。本研究采用流域重金属迁移转化模型SWAT-HM,该模型考虑了重金属化学反应如吸附和老化反应;陆面重金属迁移过程包括通过水分渗流和蒸发引起的垂向下降上升运动以及通过土壤侵蚀和地表/地下径流的水平迁移;水体中重金属迁移过程包括沉降、再悬浮、扩散和掩埋等过程。本研究选取湖南浏阳河上游流域为研究区,该流域几十年来一直受到采矿活动的影响,重金属污染严重。结果表明,SWAT-HM模型对于流域内重金属锌(Zn)和镉(Cd)的动态模拟结果与监测结果符合较好,94.5%的Zn和94.2%的Cd的模拟浓度与实测浓度在同一数量级内。流域内Zn和Cd的高污染区主要集中在宝山河,当宝山河与大溪河汇合后,由于稀释作用和水沙交互作用,溶解相Zn和Cd浓度显著降低至地表水环境质量Ⅲ类水标准(GB 3838—2002)以下。2009—2014年流域出口Zn和Cd总输出通量的多年均值分别为90.8 t和1.1 t,溶解相重金属和吸附相重金属输出量的大幅提升几乎全部出现在强降水后,吸附相重金属输出量主要由几次暴雨过程贡献。本研究通过气象因子分析方法评价重金属输出量对于降雨和气温变化的敏感性,结果显示溶解相重金属和吸附相重金属输出量对于降雨变化比温度变化敏感,且吸附相重金属对于降雨变化的响应比溶解相重金属强烈。探究不同气象情景下重金属迁移转化响应特征对于环境风险分析和污染控制具有一定意义。     

Participatory organic certification in Mexico: an alternative approach to maintaining the integrity of the organic label

Over the past two decades the growth of the organic sector has been accompanied by a shift away from first party, or peer review, systems of certification and towards third party certification, in which a disinterested party is responsible for the development of organic standards and the verification of producer compliance. This paper explores some of the limitations of the third party certification model and presents the case of Mexico as an example of how an alternative form of participatory certification has emerged. The paper suggests that participatory guarantee systems (PGS) are reflective of the growing “beyond organic” movement, which focuses on reconstructing the local and re-embedding food systems into their socio-ecological contexts. It argues that PGS offers a number of benefits for producers and consumers, particularly in the South, but that it faces a number of challenges as well, such as a lack of formal recognition, social conflicts and dependence on donated resources.     

Comment on "The response of vegetation on the Andean flank in western Amazonia to Pleistocene climate change"

Cárdenas et al. (Reports, 25 February 2011, p. 1055) used the presence of Podocarpus pollen and wood to infer ≥5°C cooling of Andean forests during Quaternary glacial periods. We show that (i) Podocarpus has a wide elevation range in the Neotropics, and (ii) edaphic factors cannot be discounted as a factor governing its distribution. Paleoecologists should therefore reevaluate Podocarpus as a cool-temperature proxy.