Climate migrants’ survival threatened by “C” shaped anthropic barriers

Despite studies on range shifts being abundant, the problem of dispersal barriers limiting climate migrants’ movement is yet to be fully included into any modeling framework. For this reason, we introduce a novel concept whereby the interplay of range shifts and dispersal barriers of a particular spatial configuration can threaten the persistence of populations under a climate change scenario. We named this concept “C‐trap,” based on the topographic shape of such barriers. After elaborating on the theoretical features of C‐traps, we provide a simple method that combines environmental data and future climate projections to locate them spatially. We use this method to determine where high C‐trap densities have the potential to further threaten the conservation of endangered, endemic animals across the world's terrestrial realm, in a climate change scenario. Our methodology detected potential C‐traps for the study system, with areas of high density mostly located in east Europe, south Asia and North America. However, finer‐scale analyses are required to assess the magnitude of the threat locally. Dispersal barriers add an additional dimension to range shift studies and can ultimately prevent otherwise successful climate migrants from tracking their climatic niche. The methodology presented here is simple and flexible enough to be adapted to a wide range of taxa and locations as well as the fast development of range shift modeling. Therefore, we encourage researchers to include the effects of anthropogenic dispersal barriers in range shifts models and in the planning of effective conservation strategies with reference to climate change.     

Climate change and the genus Rhipicephalus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Africa

The suitability of present and future climates for 30 Rhipicephalus species in Africa are predicted using a simple climate envelope model as well as a Division of Atmospheric Research Limited-Area Model (DARLAM). DARLAM's predictions are compared with the mean outcome from two global circulation models. East Africa and South Africa are considered the most vulnerable regions on the continent to climate-induced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases. More than 50% of the species examined show potential range expansion and more than 70% of this range expansion is found in economically important tick species. More than 20% of the species experienced range shifts of between 50 and 100%. There is also an increase in tick species richness in the south-western regions of the sub-continent. Actual range alterations due to climate change may be even greater since factors like land degradation and human population increase have not been included in this modelling process. However, these predictions are also subject to the effect that climate change may have on the hosts of the ticks, particularly those that favour a restricted range of hosts. Where possible, the anticipated biological implications of the predicted changes are explored.     

气候变化对荒漠区子午沙鼠(Meriones meridianus)分布格局的影响

气候变化是影响物种分布格局的主要因素之一，研究气候变化对物种分布的影响对于生物多样性保护和生态系统管理具有重要意义。本研究以子午沙鼠(Meriones meridianus Pallas，1773)为对象，通过查阅文献报道和数据库资料的方法，确定了子午沙鼠在国内的51个分布记录区域，并从19个生物气候变量中选取8个生物气候变量，通过MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测其在1970—2000和未来(2050s)温室气体高浓度和低浓度两种排放路径下分布范围变化。结果表明：受试者工作曲线面积(AUC值)均大于0.830，满足模型精度要求；影响子午沙鼠分布的主要生物气候变量为年平均气温和年降水量，其贡献率分别占65.5%和15.0%；与基准气候情景相比，未来气候情景下子午沙鼠的适宜生境范围总体呈现缩减趋势；年平均温度增高、年降水量增多会显著影响子午沙鼠的分布范围。未来很有必要对环境变化后子午沙鼠的防控策略和生态系统管理模式做出相应调整。     

气候变化对中国梅花鹿潜在栖息地影响

研究表明,气候变化将会使生物多样性降低甚至是物种灭绝。研究气候变化对物种栖息地的影响,对未来研究物种多样性和保护生态系统功能完整性提供实践意义。以梅花鹿(Cervus nippon)为研究对象,将23个环境因子通过去相关性后得到8个环境因子,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟了梅花鹿基准气候条件下在中国潜在生境分布,并预测了ssp245和ssp585两种气候变化情景下2021—2040年(2030s)、2041—2060年(2050s)、2061—2080年(2070s)梅花鹿潜在分布。23个环境因子中,对3个不同的梅花鹿亚种,降水季节性、海拔、最干月降水量这3个因子是影响梅花鹿生境分布的主要因子。基准气候条件下,梅花鹿的潜在生境面积占总研究区域总面积的3.72%。随着时间的推移,研究区内梅花鹿东北亚种当前潜在生境面积明显增加,其中ssp585情景增加程度大于ssp245情景。在ssp585情景2050s阶段,总潜在生境面积将增加524.79%;梅花鹿华南亚种当前潜在生境面积明显减少,在ssp585情景下,梅花鹿适宜生境面积减小幅度将大于ssp245情景下梅花鹿适宜生境面积减小幅度,其在相应阶段分别减少77.61%、96.29%和93.62%。适宜生境逐渐消失。梅花鹿四川亚种在ssp245、ssp585两种情景下,适宜生境面积变动较小,并且都有5%—10%的新增适宜生境。     

Evolution for extreme living: variation in mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase genes correlated with elevation in pikas (genus Ochotona)

The genus Ochotona (pikas) is a clade of cold‐tolerant lagomorphs that includes many high‐elevation species. Pikas offer a unique opportunity to study adaptations and potential limitations of an ecologically important mammal to high‐elevation hypoxia. We analyzed the evolution of 3 mitochondrial genes encoding the catalytic core of cytochrome c oxidase (COX) in 10 pika species occupying elevations from sea level to 5000 m. COX is an enzyme highly reliant on oxygen and essential for cell function. One amino acid property, the equilibrium constant (ionization of COOH), was found to be under selection in the overall protein complex. We observed a strong relationship between the net value change in this property and the elevation each species occupies, with higher‐elevation species having potentially more efficient proteins. We also found evidence of selection in low‐elevation species for potentially less efficient COX, perhaps trading efficiency for heat production in the absence of hypoxia. Our results suggest that different pika species may have evolved elevation‐specific COX proteins, specialization that may indicate limitations in their ability to shift their elevational ranges in response to future climate change.     

Temperature control of the distributional range of five C3 grass species in the uKhahlamba-Drakensberg Park,KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Global climate change is expected to influence the distribution of global biodiversity. C₄ and C₃ perennial grasses co-occur in the fire-prone KwaZulu-Natal uKhahlamba-Drakensberg grasslands, with C₃ grass species occurring at cooler locations in the mountain range and C₄ grass species at warmer locations. If a warming climate is expected to cause a contraction in the ranges of C₃ grasses, evidence of temperature controlling current distributions is required. This study modelled the distribution of five C₃ grass species, namely Tenaxia stricta, Tenaxia disticha, Festuca costata, Merxmuellera drakensbergensis and Merxmuellera stereophylla, to temperature-related surrogate variables using presence–absence data collected across the environmental heterogeneity of the mountain range. Distributions of each species, and of all species combined, were modelled using generalised additive models. These temperature-related variables accounted for the distribution of all five species, least so for F. costata. Four species could therefore contract in range in response to climate change, whereas F. costata is least likely to have a range contraction directly related to a warming climate and could experience a range expansion owing to the fertilising effect of increased [CO₂].     

Global potential distribution of an invasive species,the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under climate change

Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models.     

盐爪爪属5种植物的潜在分布及其适生性分析

本研究基于盐爪爪属(Kalidium)?5种植物共503个地理分布点和29个环境变量,运用ArcGIS和最大熵模型(MaxEnt),分析了其在基准和未来时段不同气候情景下的潜在适生区、驱动因子及其生态位参数,并利用土地利用数据与基准时段下盐爪爪属5种植物的高适生区进行叠加分析.结果表明:1)盐爪爪属5种植物适生区分布的...     

Large-Scale Spatial Patterns of Grassland Community Properties in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China

Mapping large-scale spatial patterns of grassland community properties in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China and learning how they are affected by environmental factors are vital to understand grassland changes in response to climate change and human activity. We collected data on six grassland community properties across 198 sample plots in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region: height, coverage, aboveground biomass (AGB), belowground biomass (BGB), soil bulk density (SBD), and species number (SN). We then analyzed the relationship between these and a range of environmental factors, including elevation, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), ≥ 10 C annual accumulated temperature, humidity index, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), using correlation and regression analysis. On the basis of the regression equation, we undertook a multifactor model using ArcGIS, in which different weights were assigned to each factor according to the degree of fitness between the estimated results and measured data. We then mapped the spatial distribution of grassland community properties in Inner Mongolia. We found a significant correlation between all of the grassland community properties and environmental factors measured (P < 0.01). In terms of spatial patterns, SN, height, coverage, AGB, and BGB were positively correlated with the transition from desert grassland to meadow grassland. The community properties model provided good results, with average accuracies of 53.05–90.21% and R² values of 0.40–0.68 (P < 0.01) across the six grassland community properties. The multifactor comprehensive model provides significant correlation between the predicted results and measured data. Therefore, this could be used as a basis for future studies on Inner Mongolia grasslands and to understand temporal and spatial changes of grassland in response to human activity and climate change.     

有关白颈长尾雉雄性偏倚扩散的遗传学证据

一种性别的个体倾向于比另一性别的个体扩散到离出生地较远的地方,这种现象称为性别偏倚扩散.性别偏倚扩散现象在脊椎动物中很常见,对种群结构和种群动态有着非常重要的作用.许多研究已经证明了一夫一妻制鸟类的扩散模式,然而有关一夫多妻制鸟类的研究和数据还是很少.白颈长尾雉(Syrmaticus ellioti)是中国特有的濒危物种.本研究中,我们使用多态性DNA微卫星位点(105个个体和7个位点)和线粒体DNA控制区序列(63个个体)来研究白颈长尾雉的性别偏倚扩散模式.传统的观点认为,鸟类中雌性个体比雄性个体更具扩散性.与此不同的是,本文中两种遗传标记所得的遗传信息都表明,白颈长尾雉的扩散模式是雄性偏倚的.我们认为,在鸡形目中,不具群集展示行为的一夫多妻制物种更加倾向于雄性偏倚扩散模式.该推论与基于白颈长尾雉一夫多妻的婚配体制所得到的结果是相一致的.     

山羊产业可持续发展关键因素分析

山羊产业可持续发展的“多元化”主要体现在个体的生存力、适应性以及经济效益等方面,而全球气候、经济变化趋势及社会关系等影响山羊生产体系的重要因素逐渐引起了广泛关注。文章重点介绍了近年来山羊的发展情况,并探讨了影响山羊产业可持续发展的关键因素(气候变化、物价上涨、环境破坏、遗传变异、生活模式、社会以及生态不平衡)。通过了解制约山羊产业可持续发展的因素,有利于牧民因地制宜,从容应对当下及未来面临的各种发展机遇与挑战。     

基于MaxEnt模型的新疆鹅喉羚生境适宜性评价

生境评价对物种保护具有非常重要的意义。本文以鹅喉羚为研究对象,2013～2017年通过对新疆各地区开展多次野外考察,共收集了180个鹅喉羚出现点数据,作为其分布点数据,选取19个气候因子、3个地形因子、植被因子、人类干扰因子等4类24种因子作为环境变量因子,利用MaxEnt模型分析了鹅喉羚的生境适宜性分布特征和主要环境变量因子对鹅喉羚分布的影响。结果表明:模型预测结果准确性较高,平均AUC(area under the curve,受试工作者曲线下面积)值为0. 973; Jackknife检验结果显示:海拔、最冷月最低温度(BIO6)、最干季平均温度(BIO9)、年均温(BIO1)、最冷季平均温度(BIO11)为对鹅喉羚生境分布影响最大的环境变量。鹅喉羚在新疆的适宜分布区主要是天山山脉南部的塔里木盆地和塔克拉玛干大沙漠周边区域、天山山脉北部的准噶尔盆地周边区域、新疆东部的吐哈盆地周边地区、新疆最北部的阿勒泰山脉周边区域等。本研究不仅揭示了新疆鹅喉羚的实际分布状况,同时为了更有效地保护新疆鹅喉羚及其栖息环境提供科学依据。     

Multi-scale approach to understanding climate effects on offspring size at birth and date of birth in a reptile

Climate change is already impacting species around the world. Although most focus has been on the effect of temperature, changes in climatic variables other than temperature are also expected to drive biological change. Current models suggest that ectotherms, such as reptiles, will be strongly affected by climate change; however, data from natural populations are rare. Here, we use extensive data from 2 populations of a viviparous lizard (Niveoscincus ocellatus Gray, 1845) at the climatic extreme of the species distribution. We examine the effects of climate at a local, a regional and a global scale (thus, integrating a suite of variables at different spatial and temporal scales) on 2 key life history traits: offspring date of birth and size at birth. Overall, our results show that across 9 years of study, local temperature had strong effects on the offspring date of birth but not on the size at birth. Therefore, a rapid increase in local temperature throughout the species range (as predicted under global warming scenarios) is likely to affect phenological processes with potential concomitant effects on offspring fitness and survival.     

Is Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change Necessary in Grazed Rangelands?

In this article we test the notion that adaptation to climate change in grazed rangelands requires little more effort than current approaches to risk management because the inherent climate variability that characterizes rangelands provides a management environment that is preadapted to climate change. We also examine the alternative hypothesis that rangeland ecosystems and the people they support are highly vulnerable to climate change. Past climate is likely to become an increasingly poor predictor of the future, so there is a risk in relying on adaptation approaches developed solely in response to existing variability. We find incremental, autonomous adaptation will be sufficient to deal with most of the challenges provided by the gradual expression of climate change in the next decade or two. However, projections of greater climate change in the future means that the responses required are qualitatively as well as quantitatively different and are beyond the existing suite of adaptation strategies and coping range. The proactive adaptation responses required go well beyond incremental on-farm or local actions. New policies will be needed to deal with transformational changes associated with land tenure issues and challenges of some displacement and migration of people in vulnerable parts of rangelands. Even where appropriate adaptation actions can be framed, issues of when to act and how much to act in a proactive way remain a challenge for research, management, and policy. Whether incremental or transformational involving system changes, a diversity of adaptation options will be required in different rangeland regions to enhance social and ecological resilience.     

Adélie penguins and temperature changes in Antarctica: a long-term view

During the summer months, Adélie penguins represent the dominant biomass of terrestrial Antarctica. Literally millions of individuals nest in ice-free areas around the coast of the continent. Hence, these modern populations of Adélie penguins have often been championed as an ideal biological indicator of ecological and environmental changes that we currently face. In addition, Adélie penguins show an extraordinary record of sub-fossil remains, dating back to the late Pleistocene. At this time, temperatures were much lower than now. Hence, this species offers unique long-term information, at both the genomic and ecological levels, about how a species has responded to climate change over more than 40 000 years.     

三江源区高寒草甸植物多样性的海拔分布格局

三江源地区是我国受气候变化影响最大且最敏感的区域之一。研究高寒草甸植物多样性海拔分布格局及其与环境的关系,能为预测气候变化对植物多样性的影响和响应提供科学依据。本研究以青海三江源地区的6个样地/海拔梯度共78个样方的高寒草甸样地为研究对象,了解高寒草甸植物多样性和群落结构,分析海拔分布格局及其与环境的关系,旨在以空间替代时间的实验系统来揭示植物对气候变化的响应。统计分析发现,6个高寒草甸样地共有植物21科、51属、74种,且在中海拔和高海拔地区,高寒草甸以藏嵩草、高山嵩草、矮嵩草等莎草科植物占优势,低海拔地区高寒草甸则以针茅、早熟禾、垂穗披碱草等禾本科植物为优势种群。方差分析表明,随着海拔的降低,高寒草甸群落的物种多样性和物种丰富度均呈“单峰”分布格局,而均匀度指数逐渐升高。DCA分析发现,高寒草甸植物群落沿着海拔梯度呈现有规律的变化,具有从高寒草甸向高寒草原化草甸的逐渐过渡的特征,海拔梯度明显的影响了植物群落结构和多样性。此外,CCA结果表明,土壤pH值是影响高寒草甸植物群落分布格局的主要因素,土壤含水量、土壤温度、土壤有机碳、碱解氮含量与全钾含量是影响植物群落分布格局的关键因子。综上所述,我们推测气候变化极有可能影响三江源地区高寒草甸植物群落结构与分布格局。     

Climate Change in Western US Deserts: Potential for Increased Wildfire and Invasive Annual Grasses

Anthropogenic climate change is hypothesized to modify the spread of invasive annual grasses across the deserts of the western United States. The influence of climate change on future invasions depends on both climate suitability that defines a potential species range and the mechanisms that facilitate invasions and contractions. A suite of downscaled climate projections for the mid–21st century was used to examine changes in physically based mechanisms, including critical physiological temperature thresholds, the timing and availability of moisture, and the potential for large wildfires. Results suggest widespread changes in 1) the length of the freeze-free season that may favor cold-intolerant annual grasses, 2) changes in the frequency of wet winters that may alter the potential for establishment of invasive annual grasses, and 3) an earlier onset of fire season and a lengthening of the window during which conditions are conducive to fire ignition and growth furthering the fire-invasive feedback loop. We propose that a coupled approach combining bioclimatic envelope modeling with mechanistic modeling targeted to a given species can help land managers identify locations and species that pose the highest level of overall risk of conversion associated with the multiple stressors of climate change.     

Climate change and invasive species: double jeopardy

Two of the key drivers of biodiversity loss today are climate change and invasive species. Climate change is already having a measurable impact on species distributions, reproduction and behavior, and all evidence suggests that things will get worse even if we act tomorrow to mitigate any future increases in greenhouse gas emissions: temperature will increase, precipitation will change, sea level will rise and ocean chemistry will change. At the same time, biological invasions remain an important threat to biodiversity, causing species loss, changes in distribution and habitat degradation. Acting together, the impacts of each of these drivers of change are compounded and interactions between these two threats present even greater challenges to field conservationists as well as policymakers. Similarly, the social and economic impacts of climate change and invasive species, already substantial, will be magnified. Awareness of the links between the two should underpin all biodiversity management planning and policy.     

Climate change effects on trematodiases,with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis

The capacity of climatic conditions to modulate the extent and intensity of parasitism is well known since long ago. Concerning helminths, among the numerous environmental modifications giving rise to changes in infections, climate variables appear as those showing a greater influence, so that climate change may be expected to have an important impact on the diseases they cause. However, the confirmation of the impact of climate change on helminthiases has been reached very recently. Only shortly before, helminthiases were still noted as infectious diseases scarcely affected by climate change, when compared to diseases caused by microorganisms in general (viruses, bacteriae, protozoans). The aim of the present paper is to review the impact of climate change on helminthiases transmitted by snails, invertebrates which are pronouncedly affected by meteorological factors, by focusing on trematodiases. First, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on trematodiases in general is reviewed, including aspects such as influence of temperature on cercarial output, cercarial production variability in trematode species, influences of magnitude of cercarial production and snail host size, cercarial quality, duration of cercarial production increase and host mortality, influence of latitude, and global-warming-induced impact of trematodes. Secondly, important zoonotic diseases such as fascioliasis, schistosomiasis and cercarial dermatitis are analysed from the point of view of their relationships with meteorological factors. Emphasis is given to data which indicate that climate change influences the characteristics of these trematodiases in concrete areas where these diseases are emerging in recent years. The present review shows that trematodes, similarly as other helminths presenting larval stages living freely in the environment and/or larval stages parasitic in invertebrates easily affected by climate change as arthropods and molluscs as intermediate hosts, may be largely more susceptible to climate change impact than those helminths in whose life cycle such phases are absent or reduced to a minimum. Although helminths also appear to be affected by climate change, their main difference with microparasites lies on the usually longer life cycles of helminths, with longer generation times, slower population growth rates and longer time period needed for the response in the definitive host to become evident. Consequently, after a pronounced climate change in a local area, modifications in helminth populations need more time to be obvious or detectable than modifications in microparasite populations. Similarly, the relation of changes in a helminthiasis with climatic factor changes, as extreme events elapsed relatively long time ago, may be overlooked if not concretely searched for. All indicates that this phenomenon has been the reason for previous analyses to conclude that helminthiases do not constitute priority targets in climate change impact studies.     

典型草原建群种长芒草(Stipa bungeana)在中国的潜在分布范围预测及主要影响因子分析

以广泛分布在中国北方典型草原的建群种长芒草为研究对象,利用Maxent模型对长芒草在中国当前及未来气候变化下的潜在分布区进行预测并对主要影响其分布的环境变量进行分析,结果表明,采用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)对模型精度进行检验所得到的训练数据与测试数据的受试者工作特征曲线面积(areaunder ROC curve,AUC)分别为0.962和0.950,表明模型预测结果可靠,当前中国长芒草高适宜性分布区主要有5个,分别为黄土高原分布区、泰山-沂蒙山分布区、横断山分布区、藏南谷地分布区及天山分布区。在RCP2.6(representative concentration pathways 2.6)和RCP8.5(representative concentration pathways 8.5)两种气候情景模式下预测得到的2070年长芒草最适宜的潜在分布区有逐渐缩小的趋势。Jackknife检验对主导环境变量的筛选结果显示,影响长芒草分布的主要环境变量有地形粗糙度指数(terrain roughness index,tri)、9月降水量(precipitation 09,prec09)、气候湿度指数(climatic moisture index,topowi)、2月最高温度(maximum temperature 02,tmax02)、12月降水量(precipitation 12,prec12)和12月平均温度(average temperature 12,tavg12)。结果可为气候变化背景下中国典型草原的可持续管理提供科学依据。