The policy analysis of governing illegal logging: A game theory approach

Illegal logging has attracted worldwide attention, and some measures, such as timber procurement policies and timber regulations, have been taken. However, there are no studies that examine the governance of illegal logging using game theory. This paper applies game theory to analyze the subsidy policy for governing illegal logging as well as the effects of the subsidy on the benefits of suppliers and operators of forest products. The results show that controlling illegal logging has an impact on exporting enterprises, and the effects produced by subsidies and non-subsidies are different for enterprise. Enterprises that receive subsidies will occupy foreign markets and gain additional profits, while enterprises that are not subsidized will exit foreign markets. The amount of subsidies is related to enterprise’s governance cost. The benefit for operators and suppliers depend on the combination of supervision level and forest products’ legality. The critical point of regulation of operators is related to regulatory costs, the additional benefits of weak supervision of suppliers, and penalties for regulatory failure. The critical point for suppliers to select legal raw materials is related to suppliers’ operating costs, gray income, and the degree of punishment.     

木材合法性贸易法规立法要素国际比较及借鉴

在非法采伐及相关贸易成为国际社会热点问题的背景下,越来越多的国家通过立法限制非法采伐木材进入本国市场。文中对当前国际上主要木材合法性贸易法规进行梳理,针对合法性定义、强制性、适用对象、保障机制、执行与管理、监督机制以及处罚措施7个立法要素进行比较分析,总结国际打击非法采伐及相关贸易的立法经验对我国木材合法来源管理的借鉴意义。     

符合国际市场要求的中国木材合法性尽职调查体系构建

为打击非法采伐及相关贸易, 欧盟、美国和澳大利亚等经济体纷纷出台贸易法规, 要求企业开展尽职调查, 促进合法木材贸易。文中从标准要求、程序、风险评估及结论、运行机制、企业接受程度、满足法案要求程度等方面对现行木材合法性尽职调查体系现状进行比较分析; 在此基础上, 提出中国木材合法性尽职调查体系构建的目标和宗旨及主体框架, 并讨论体系实施的潜在问题与对策。     

The legally allowable versus the informally practicable in Bolivia’s domestic timber market

We analyze legality in the forest sector in Bolivia, focusing particularly on the domestic timber value chain in the northern Bolivian Amazon. Bolivia adopted wide-reaching forest, land and democratic regulatory changes since the mid-1990s that were partly intended to reduce illegal logging and related practices. The new forest regulations, in turn, led to new illegal practices because implementation and sanctioning were poor, but also because new forest and land regulations were inadequate and often contradictory. In response, the government and various forest agencies adopted new measures to address the new illegal practices. These forest regulatory and forest policy renovations and modifications of the last two decades are, for instance, reflected in the domestic timber market of the northern Bolivian Amazon, a region that relies heavily on the forest sector. The paper analyzes Bolivia’s regulatory changes that were relevant for legality in the forest sector and the multiple modifications that were made to address shortcomings of these reforms. It also analyses legality in the domestic timber value chain in northern Bolivia. The new actors involved in especially the domestic timber value chain have moved away from formal and legal mechanisms to benefit from timber that grows on their land and forests to practices that were not considered or actually shunned in the law and that appear difficult to regulate. Unless these new practices are recognized adequately in a new forestry law, some of the production and trade of the timber value chain will likely continue to operate at the margin of legality.     

木材合法性认证及其对中国木质林产品贸易的影响

木材非法采伐及其相关贸易是导致许多发展中国家毁林和森林退化的重要原因。森林破坏反过来导致约20%的全球碳排放。许多政府和私人部门以及国际社会纷纷采取措施确保木材的合法性。随之而来的木材合法性认证越来越普遍。文中概述木材合法性认证的概念及认证体系,归纳木材合法性认证的要点、局限性和启示,简要分析木材合法性认证对中国木质林产品贸易的影响。     

Causes of illegal logging in Central and Eastern Europe

A study has been undertaken to investigate the extent to which poverty is a determinant (final cause) of illegal logging, and to identify valid short-term policy variables for the control of illegal logging in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The study identifies the main features of illegal logging and forest-related and rural-related conditions in the CEE region, and uses principal components analysis and cluster analysis to obtain a typology of the CEE region according to the above conditions. Regional differences within Lithuania and Romania are specifically examined. The analysis reveals that the occurrence of illegal logging is explained by poverty, but also by the reform on land ownership and by weak law enforcement. Implications of these results for policies to cope with the illegal logging phenomenon are discussed.     

木材追踪技术的新进展及其应用

近年来, 打击非法采伐及其贸易已经成为国际社会的广泛共识。木材的追踪识别技术是检测木材合法性的重要手段。文中介绍了射频识别技术、DNA标记、稳定同位素技术等木材追踪识别新技术的发展、应用前景及其优缺点。     

中国木材合法性认定体系路径选择

随着国际市场对木材合法性的要求日益提高, 中国也在积极推动中国木材合法性认定体系的建立和运行。文中将当今世界通行的木材合法性认定体系划分为政府主导的强制性合法性认定体系、行业协会主导的认定体系、非政府组织主导的自愿性合法性倡议、以市场为基础的第三方合法性认定4种类型, 概述不同体系的标准与要求, 分析比较各类体系的优势与劣势, 并基于以上分析提出对中国木材合法性认定体系路径选择的建议。     

Countermeasure Strategy for China’s Wood Enterprises to Meet Timber Legality Requirements

As the global forest issues and illegal logging have increasingly aroused the concerns of the international community,the US Lacey Act Amendment and the EU Timber Regulation poses requirements for the legality of timber.The paper described the background of timber legality issue,analyzed the specific requirements of the US and the EU for timber legality,and pointed out their negative impacts on China’s wood enterprises.Based on the analyses,the authors came up with the approaches that China’ s wood enterprises could adopt to meet legality requirements,and proposed the specific suggestions on how enterprises respond to the requirements for legality with an eye for the difficulties that they are confronting with.     

中国加强进口木材合法性管理的经济影响分析

非法采伐及相关贸易被认为是导致毁林和全球气候变暖的主要原因之一,对全世界的经济、社会和环境带来了负面影响。中国是全球第1大林产品贸易国,进口木材已占我国木材来源的50%以上,而其中很多来自非伐采伐风险比较高的热带国家/地区,倍受国际舆论压力。在此背景下,中国政府正在不断完善相关法规政策以加强对进口木材合法性的管理。文中采用静态GTAP模型模拟了出台进口材合法性管理政策法规背景下企业选取不同合规机制对中国和全球林产品贸易的影响。结果表明,中国加强进口材合法性的管理将改变中国木材进口格局,其产生的主要福利损失由中国和被判定为非法采伐高风险的国家/地区承担,而低风险国家/地区则实现了福利增加。     

Institutional quality,economic development and illegal logging: a quantitative cross-national analysis

Illegal logging is a global concern, associated with severe negative environmental, social and economic impacts, such as deforestation, degradation of biodiversity and loss of government revenues. Despite recent international efforts to combat illegal logging activities, the problem remains widespread. While the academic literature on the subject is extensive, little systematic research has been devoted to analysing the causes of illegal logging. Here, this knowledge gap is addressed with a cross-national assessment of factors hypothesized to impact illegal logging. The logistic regression analysis conducted in this study corroborates some widely held beliefs, but also provides some new insights on the factors that are important for whether illegal logging is likely to be a problem. It is shown that, besides physical-geographic characteristics, a number of factors relating to the level and speed of a country’s economic-institutional development are associated with illegal logging. These include gross domestic product per capita, economic growth, voice and accountability, rule of law and control of corruption. The findings also have implications for existing policies to tackle illegal logging activities.

     

Long-term effects of eliminating illegal logging on the world forest industries, trade, and inventory

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of a progressive elimination of illegal logging. The analysis compared predictions from 2007 to 2020, with and without a gradual reduction of illegally logged industrial roundwood from 2007 to 2011. A large part of the curtailment of timber supply due to the stoppage of illegal logging would be compensated by increased legal production incited by higher prices. As a result, without illegal logging the world annual production of industrial roundwood would decrease by no more than 1%, even though it would decrease by up to 8% in developing countries. World prices would rise by 1.5 to 3.5% for industrial roundwood and by 0.5 to 2% for processed products, depending on the assumption on illegal logging rates. World consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 1 to 2% without illegal logging. World value added in forest industries would remain the same. However, the changes in consumer expenditures would be more than double the changes in producer revenues in countries dependent on illegally logged timber of domestic or foreign origin such as Indonesia and China. Symmetrically, changes in producer revenues would be almost twice the changes in consumer expenditures in countries with little illegal logging and efficient industries, such as Canada, Germany and the United States. Value added in forest industries would decrease most in countries with heavy illegal logging (12% in Indonesia and up to 9% in Brazil), and it would increase most in Germany, Canada (4%), and the United States (2%). Without illegal logging, the world forest inventory would increase slightly, as the increase in developing countries would more than compensate the decrease in developed countries.     

非法采伐及相关贸易研究综述

文中在回顾非法采伐及相关贸易问题演变过程的基础上,综述主要研究方向及其进展,总结研究的主要方法和结论。非法采伐及其相关贸易问题本身具有多面性、多维度的特点,且其范围逐渐扩展。现有研究多停留于宏观层面,涉及非法采伐的定义和维度,涵盖非法采伐及相关贸易的规模、驱动因素、影响、治理形式和效果等,但缺少微观企业层面的理论和实证研究。GFPM、EFI-GTM等模型和半结构访谈方法被广泛应用于影响、治理的相关实证研究。     

中国促进木材贸易可持续发展的政策建设与实践

当前, 国际社会对木材贸易中存在的非法采伐问题十分关注, 对木材贸易的不可持续性存在着一定的担忧。作为世界木材进口大国和加工大国, 中国受到国际社会的高度关注。从政策层面出发, 首先从资源培育政策、贸易政策和跨国经营政策等方面分析了中国政府在木材贸易可持续发展方面的政策建设; 紧接着分析了中国在推进木材贸易可持续发展方面的国际合作实践; 最后, 提出了相应的研究结论。     

The emergence of the European Union Timber Regulation: How Baptists,Bootleggers, devil shifting and moral legitimacy drive change in the environmental governance of global timber trade

The European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR) was adopted in 2010. This Regulation prohibits placing illegally harvested timber on the EU market and obliges economic operators who put timber products for the first time on the EU market to exercise due diligence. So far, little research has been done to understand the politics of the EUTR. Based on 25 interviews with key informants and the analysis of 32 policy documents, this paper explains the emergence of the Regulation as a result of coalitional politics driven by both conflict and cooperation among state and non-state actors. We show that the politics of the EUTR is marked by heated policy debates and mistrust, in particular in regards to the prohibition clause and the relation between legality and sustainability. Domestic timber producers (public and private forest owners), forest industry (sawmilling, furniture, pulp and paper) and forest-rich EU member states (e.g. Austria, Germany, Finland and Sweden) represented in the Council built a CONTRA-coalition that were (initially) opposed to the regulatory changes suggested by the PRO-coalition of environmental groups and the European Parliament. The Regulation emerged through a strategic alliance between environmental groups, timber import-dependent forest industries and retailers. This “Baptists-and-Bootleggers” alliance was facilitated by an overlap of environmentalists' beliefs and moral arguments (emphasizing the negative societal and ecological impacts of illegal logging) and timber industries' economic interests (protectionism and market expansion as well as reputational improvement). The EUTR was finally adopted through the political support of national authorities of EU member states who are timber import-dependent (the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark), and the European Parliament. The paper concludes with a reflection on the importance of coalitional politics for policy change at the nexus between environmental, trade and market policies.     

印度尼西亚木材非法采伐现状分析

印尼森林资源丰富,但非法采伐猖獗。印尼政府为保护剩余的森林资源采取了多方面的措施,以实现森林的可持续经营。文中介绍印尼木材非法采伐的现状和表现形式,分析其产生原因和影响以及应对措施。     

Impact Analysis of Green Procurement Policy for Forest Products in France and Its Reference

In order to combat illegal logging and associated trade and promote sustainable forest management, major developed countries, including France, have implemented green procurement policy for forest products. This paper described the background of why France implements green procurement policy for forest products, analyzed the basic content of the policy, and made a comprehensive assessment of the impact of green procurement policy on suppliers, processors, eco-environment and competitiveness of forest produc...     

Main Timber Legality Verification Schemes in the World

Based on introduction of the timber legality verification schemes,the article provides a detailed review of existing legality verification schemes covering aspects such as definition of legality,verification process.It aims to help Chinese companies understand the different requirements and evidence of compliance required by legislation,public and private procurement policies.     

中亚五国林业发展及国际合作展望

目前中亚国家多数处于经济转型和管理方式转变的关键时期, 正积极推进林业向可持续管理方式转变, 但重要林业计划和活动实施效果欠佳, 森林退化严重, 盗伐盗猎现象普遍, 也正努力寻求改进和对外合作。文中介绍了包括哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦在内的中亚5国森林资源和管理现状、林业法律政策、林业发展面临的共同问题, 提出了我国与中亚5国开展林业合作的领域和方式, 以期为我国与中亚地区开展林业合作提供重要信息支撑。     

Determinants of illegal logging in Indonesia: An empirical analysis for the period 1996–2010

Illegal logging is a significant problem in Indonesia, which is one of the few countries with a large forest area. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect harvesting and supply of illegal timber from Indonesia to China and Japan. Moreover, we investigate the factors that lead to the demand of Indonesian illegal timber from China and Japan. A simultaneous-equation econometric model of illegally logged timber demand and supply is developed and tested using the annual data over the period 1996–2010. We find that corruption and decentralization in Indonesia have significant and positive impacts on the illegally logged timber supply while excess demand in Japanese construction and furniture industries as well as Japan’s housing starts are the significant factors that affect the illegal logging in Indonesia. The law enforcement or policies aimed at reducing illegal harvesting in Indonesia are found to be more effective than the policies targeting the import of illegally logged timber into Japan and China.