Bioenergy from the forest sector: Economic potential and interactions with timber and forest products markets in Norway

Abstract

A partial equilibrium forest sector model which is augmented to include bioenergy was applied to project the use of bioenergy based on forest fuels and forest industry by-products in Norway for three different scenarios of the future prices of electricity and oil. The impacts on forestry and forest industries of the different energy price scenarios were also studied. The advantage of the suggested methodology is that it allows for assessments of the economic potential of bioenergy, taking into account the competition for raw materials, the specific heat demand of various regions, and interregional and international trade. Bioenergy will, according to this study, be fairly competitive in some market segments with the current price levels of electricity and oil, and only a minor increase (decrease) in energy (roundwood) prices would release substantially increased bioenergy production levels. Pulpwood prices of pine and non-coniferous species are projected to increase substantially when assuming increasing energy prices. Except for particleboard mills, production levels of forest industries appeared relatively insensitive to the energy price changes.     

Economic and Life-Cycle Analysis of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Wood-Based Bioenergy Offsets in the Central Hardwood Forest Region of United States

This study investigates the combined impact of carbon and bioenergy markets on upland oak dominated mixed hardwood forests in the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR) of the United States. A modification of the Hartman model was used for the economic analysis of carbon sequestration and using wood-based biomass for bioenergy. A life-cycle assessment was used to determine the amount of carbon sequestered due to stand growth and emitted during harvesting and decay of wood products. Two scenarios were taken, one where additionality of carbon is considered and the other where it is not. Sensitivity analysis was done with the range of carbon and bioenergy prices. The results show that net carbon payments have more impact on land expectation value (LEV) when additionality is not considered; in contrast, bioenergy payments have more impact on LEV when additionality is considered. Carbon and bioenergy prices also influenced the amount of stand level supply of forest products and carbon in both scenarios. In general, sawtimber, wood bioenergy, and carbon supply increased with an increase in carbon prices, whereas, pulpwood supply decreased. With few exceptions at higher carbon prices, bioenergy supply decreased with the increase in wood bioenergy prices, showing a backward bending supply curve in both scenarios.     

论我国林业生物质能源林培育与发展

能源危机和生态环境压力使世界发达国家纷纷转向发展和利用生物质能源,发展生物质能产业也是我国缓解能源供应压力和解决环境问题的途径之一。林业生物质能资源培育是一项系统工程,要从统筹资源培育和产业发展、进行现状及发展潜力调查评价、制定资源培育及产业发展总体规划、加强科技和加强优惠财税政策等方面做好工作;同时,处理好产业与生态、森林多目标培育的关系,处理好国家、企业和能源林经营者三者之间的关系,以促进我国林业生物质能产业健康快速发展。     

An economic model of international wood supply,forest stock and forest area change

Abstract

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion?m³, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.     

Technical change in forest sector models: the global forest products model approach

Technical change is developing rapidly in some parts of the forest sector, especially in the pulp and paper industry where wood fiber is being substituted by waste paper. In forest sector models, the processing of wood and other input into products is frequently represented by activity analysis (input–output). In this context, technical change translates in changes over time of the input–output (I–O) coefficients and of the manufacturing cost (labor, capital, and materials, excluding wood and fiber). In the case of the global forest products model, the I–O coefficients and the manufacturing costs are determined empirically from historical data, while correcting for possible reporting errors. The method consists of goal programming. The objective function is the sum of the weighted absolute value of the deviations from estimated and observed production in each country of interest. The constraints express the relationship between the multiple output (sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper) and input (wood, waste paper, other fiber) and prior knowledge on the limits of the I–O coefficients. The paper presents observed technical changes from 1993 to 2010 and projections to 2030 with their consequences for the global forest sector in terms of prices, production and consumption, value added, and carbon sequestration in forest biomass.     

Criteria and guidance considerations for sustainable tree stump harvesting in British Columbia

Abstract

Stump extraction for forest health has been carried out operationally in British Columbia (BC) for many years. Emerging bioenergy opportunities plus the anticipated need for more fibre because of reductions in timber supply may increase interest in stump harvesting, but there are numerous environmental, economic and policy barriers that must be overcome first before industrial-scale stump harvesting can be seriously considered in BC. The potential for a future change in practice provides an opportunity to learn from the existing literature and identify knowledge gaps. In this article we review the available literature on stump harvesting from the European Union within the context of BC's forests, economy, biodiversity, environment and policies. We provide recommendations on how the government of BC could move forward if they decide to enable stump harvesting for fibre and bioenergy, including assessment of net economic and carbon benefits and environmental effects, improvements in inventory and the scientific knowledge base needed to support policy and guidance, and investigation of operational enhancements.     

Alternative fiber resources for pulp and paper industry of bangladesh: Why and what?

This study has evaluated the factors affecting the utilization of alternative fiber resources and efforts have also been made to outline the possible alternative fiber resources available in the country. Since 1989, paper consumption has exceeded production. Imports of industrial paper have increased and the future of newsprint export is dark. The government sector pulp and paper mills are highly dependent on forest based fiber resources and private sector paper and board mills depend on imported pulps. Uneven distribution of fiber resources has limited the raw material availability of the pulp and paper mills. Shortage of raw materials, irregular procurements, and low installed capacity are the main reasons for low paper production. On the other hand, paper demand will increase tremendously in the near future. But the present raw material availability is not sufficient to cope with the future demand for attaining self sufficiency in paper production. Therefore, immediate action is necessary for utilizing alternative fiber resources. Rangpur region has abundant lower grade jute. Jute cutting is available in Narayangonj area. Available bagasse supply is expected in the northwest regions after the end of this century. These resources are more than enough for supplementing the shortage of present raw materials during the 1997–2006 period. This is a revised of “Study of Non-wood and Forest Based Fiber Resources in Bangladesh — A Case Study on Pulp and Paper Industry” presented in the '95 TAPPI Pulping Conference. Ref. Proceedings 1995 Pulping Conference—Chicago, Book 2, TAPPI Press, Atlanta, 1995, 597–603.     

The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth,timber supply,and technological trends

A partial equilibrium model was applied to the global forest sector in order to assess regional and global impacts of changes in economic growth, timber supply potentials, and technical trends. The model uses recursive price-endogenous linear programming and deals with eight geographical regions and 16 products. The base line projections of the model gave an average annual increase in global supply of industrial roundwood of 1.2% until the year 2010. The real price of sawlogs and sawnwood was found to remain approximately constant, whereas the prices of pulpwood and particles increased significantly during the first years, and then declined after the year 2000. The real prices of pulp and paper increased less than those of pulpwood and particles. The assumed variations in GDP growth rates had limited influence on quantities supplied and traded due to restricted timber supply potentials, but affected the real prices, especially of pulpwood and particles. Changes in the assumed timber supply potentials and technical change affected the real prices of pulpwood and particles significantly. Introduction of a price responsive timber supply also dampened the price peaks of pulpwood. Possible improvements of the methodology include empirical estimation of timber supply and of key parameters that determine capacity expansion, trade inertia, and technical changes.     

Potential forest biomass resource as feedstock for bioenergy and its economic value in Indonesia

Indonesia has abundant forest biomass resource, which should not be considered as a low economic value resource. This forest biomass resource can be converted into bioenergy through various technologies and it becomes one of sources in Indonesia's energy mix. This paper focuses on forest residues generated primarily from the harvesting of natural production forests and industrial forest plantations; and wood processing mill residues. The estimated total potential forest biomass in Indonesia for bioenergy in the year 2013 was 132 PJ. About 50.4% resulted from harvesting residues and 49.6% from wood processing residues. Riau province has the largest potential bioenergy followed by Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, East Java, South Sumatera, Central Java and Jambi, which all together accounted for 87% of total potential bioenergy. Moreover, three major islands accounted for 95% of total potential bioenergy. Using a conversion return approach, the economic value of forest biomass when it was pelletized was estimated to be about US$ 5.6 per ton wood residues. The economic value of forest biomass is more sensitive to changes in the price of wood pellet than to changes in the collection and hauling cost of wood residues.     

The impact of SFM-certification on forest product markets in Western Europe — an analysis using a forest sector simulation model

In the international discussion on labels for sustainably produced wood products based on the certification of sustainable forest management (SFM), little attention has been paid to what is probably the most crucial part of any market-based instrument: the potential impact on forest products markets. This paper analyses the potential impact of SFM-certification on forest products markets using a simulation model of the Western European forest sector. Two scenarios with assumptions regarding certification (chain-of-custody costs, timber supply reduction from certified forests) are projected for the period 1995–2015 and tested against the results of a base scenario (‘business as usual’). In general, the results show that rather modest changes are to be expected from SFM-certification in forest products markets. The market impact of a timber supply reduction from certified forest would be more distinct than the impacts of chain-of-custody costs. Industry gross profits would decrease more than production. Due to the large share of roundwood costs in total costs, the sawmill industry would be affected more by even small changes in raw-material prices than the panel and paper industry.     

Management tools for optimal allocation of wood fibre to conventional log and bio-energy markets in Ireland: a case study

A set of tools are described for optimal allocation of wood fibre at an operational planning level. These were applied to a case study in Ireland. Allocation was based on optimising net value recovery (delivered price minus harvesting and transportation costs) while meeting market demands and operational constraints (mainly crew capability and productivity limits). Two new models were developed to predict harvesting costs and transportation costs for Irish forest conditions. A new model was developed to link Sitka spruce biomass expansion factors to optimal log-making algorithms so that log and bio-energy product yields could be estimated for individual harvest areas. An existing operational allocation model based on a tabu search heuristic procedure was used. The case study included 16 forest harvest areas and 12 processing plants (saw logs, pallet logs, stakes, pulp, bio-energy slash bundles, etc.). New terrestrial lidar scanning procedures were used to obtain representative stem profiles from over 4,000 trees for the 16 forests. We demonstrated that optimal allocation of bio-energy and log products, while complex, can be achieved through the use of appropriate management tools.     

Potential Impact of Forest Bioenergy on Environment in China

Forest bioenergy is an alternative to fossil energy.Although forest bioenergy is of great value to ease energy supply,there is still a strong call for the research of what impact forest bioenergy plantation will exert on environment if under large scale development.By discussing the resource potential and development status of forest bioenergy,the paper attempts to explore the potential impact of forest bioenergy on environment and give some recommendations to mitigate and even avoid negative impact.     

湖南省邓恩桉与柳桉高产纤维材引种培育研究进展

中国大多数桉树资源主要集中在较为温暖的沿海地区.目前在湖南和江西等华南和中南省份较为冷凉的内陆地区,通过选择一些合适的耐寒桉树品种,种植了一些规模不大的桉树人工示范林,这些示范林显示出了较好的适应性与丰产性.这些较为冷凉的内陆地区有着立地条件较为优越的适合人工林发展的广大林地.对于较冷地区,尤其是湖南省来说,通过分析所...     

Disintegration of the U. S. Industrial Forest Estate: Dynamics,Trajectories, and Questions

In the past decade ownership of the corporate forestry sector in the USA has undergone remarkable transformation. Corporate consolidation, separation of processing capacity ownership from timberland ownership, and disinvestment from timberland ownership altogether have occurred rapidly and on a global scale. Vertically-integrated forest products companies, once the standard model for publically-traded corporations, have all but disappeared. A new class of timberland investors now dominates the timberland estate. These new owners can be viewed as the most recent manifestation of capital from the core seeking rent in the distant periphery. While in this respect they resemble their industrial forestry predecessors, they differ markedly with regard to landholding objectives, time horizons, management capacities and other characteristics. This transformation has created new challenges and opportunities for other forest owners and for rural communities. Many timber processing mills have closed, restricting markets for smallholder wood. While much former industrial timberland remains in industrial-style timber management, some has been subdivided for ‘highest and best use,’ and conservation buyers have assumed control of a few large blocks. Further fragmentation of the industrial forest estate is anticipated, presenting both challenges and opportunities to small-scale forest owners and rural communities. This paper outlines the dynamics of forest ownership restructuring, posits alternative future scenarios for small-scale forestry, and points to potentially useful future research.     

SWOT analysis and strategy development for forest fuel supply chains in South East Europe

The objective of this study is to assess drivers and barriers to primary forest fuel (PFF) supply in the wide-stretched South East Europe (SEE) countries and to develop strategies to improve PFF supply involving dozens of stakeholders from different SEE countries. SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses were used to evaluate country supply chains. Based on those a regional SWOT analysis was compiled and strategies were developed and evaluated in a participative decision process. Results show that strategies for increasing biomass utilisation are of high relevance in all participating countries. Additionally, strategies for knowledge dissemination are also important. The evaluated regional strategies for the forest fuel sector examined have great potential to improve cooperation, increase efficiency and strengthen competitiveness of PFF based bioenergy production.     

Modeling timber mill procurement influence effects on interstate sawlog exportation

Over the last three decades the exportation rate of raw sawlogs from Illinois to neighboring states for processing has nearly doubled. While the exportation of sawlogs has adverse impacts on the Illinois wood products manufacturing sector and local forest landowners, little research has been conducted to understand how the spatial arrangement of timber mills affects sawlog exportation. This research models, in a spatial environment, timber mill procurement influence within southern Illinois and the surrounding region in an attempt to understand how the location of mills is a partial explanation of the increase in sawlog exportation. Assuming equal market power, timber mills within the study area were found to be arranged in a manner that results in low competition for sawlogs within Illinois and high competition in neighboring states. Spatial models incorporating differential market power based on mill size characteristics suggest that Illinois experiences little procurement pressure from high production mills operating within the State but is under procurement pressure from high production timber mills operating in neighboring states.     

论中国桉树发展的贡献和可持续经营策略

我国最早于1890年引进桉树,刚开始主要作为庭院和四旁绿化树种,20世纪50年代在粤西和桂南大面积试种成功后,逐步推广作为南方主要造林树种.20世纪80年代,我国开始大规模种植桉树,1986年,全国桉树人工林面积达46.6万hm2,进入21世纪后,桉树发展迅猛,2015年达450万hm2,年产木材3000万m3,占全国商品林木材产量的26.9％,为保障我国木材安全做出了重要贡献.桉树产业已形成包括种苗、肥料、制材、制浆造纸、人造板、生物质能源和林副产品等完整的产业链,年总产值达3000亿元.发展桉树人工林具有非常重要的意义:一是缓解我国木材供应紧张局面,减少对外依存度,以保障国家木材安全;二是桉树产业已形成完整的产业链,构成国民经济不可或缺的一部分;三是对提高森林碳汇、发挥气候调节、完善森林的生态和防护功能具有重要意义;四是重要的民生林业,促进林农增收和农村致富.桉树科学发展的关键在于可持续经营.首先必须更新观念:由木材生产为主向木材生产与环境保护并重转化,由封闭式经营向开放式经营转化,由传统的永续利用向森林可持续经营转化.同时,必须推行以下可持续经营的技术措施:(1)立地与树种、品种相匹配;(2)适当的人工混交林措施;(3)进行科学的植被管理;(4)改进造林技术;(5)控制病虫害.     

An enterprise architecture approach to forest management support systems design: an application to pulpwood supply management in Portugal

A key requirement for the success of a forest management information system is that it may effectively address its users?? needs. Yet, the development of models and methods to address-specific forest ecosystem management processes has not been matched by architectures that may take into account the human dimension of information systems. This paper presents an approach to pulpwood supply system architecture. Emphasis is on participatory business modeling that may effectively address users?? needs and enhance system resilience. An Enterprise Architecture methodology is proposed so that the information systems?? functional requirements for pulpwood supply may emerge from business and information architectures in workshops with the stakeholders. Results of its application to a vertically integrated Portuguese pulp and paper company are presented. The case study focuses on processes and business information required to support the pulp mills entire pulpwood supply management. Results show that the proposed approach addressed effectively end-users?? involvement in pulpwood supply system design. It provided an architecture that addresses all stakeholders?? perspectives and concerns and it was thus instrumental to develop a Pulp and Paper Supply Chain Process Framework. Results further show that it may effectively identify and integrate information systems?? components, ensuring business information integrity.     

Energy wood resources availability and delivery cost in Northwest Russia

Availability of solid by-products from wood harvesting and mechanical wood processing was estimated as sources for energy production based on recent actual harvesting, sawmill, and plywood production in Northwest Russia at 30 million m³. Nearly 70% of the energy wood, 20 million m³, was from harvesting, consisting of non-industrial round wood, unused branches and tops, defective wood resulting from logging, and spruce stumps removed after final felling. Over 30%, 10 million m³, of the available volume was from sawmills and plywood mills, i.e. wood chips, sawdust, and bark. Due to current low utilization of energy wood for bioenergy in Northwest Russia, delivery cost of energy wood to the potential border-crossing points in Finland was analyzed for three means of transport: railways, roadways, and waterways. Nearly 28 million m³ of the energy wood could be transported by railways and 2 million m³ by roadways and waterways. The costs were lowest by roadways from the nearby border areas (10–15 €/m³ for wood processing by-products and 16–22 €/m³ for forest chips). The costs by railways varied from 12 to 27 €/m³ on shorter distances to 47–58 €/m³ on longer distances. Waterway transportation was the most expensive, about 28–48 €/m³. It should be emphasized that we have estimated availability and delivery costs of energy wood, not prices which are defined by the market based on supply and demand.     

Cost analysis of a satellite terminal for forest fuel supply in Finland

As forest fuel demand increases, new logistical solutions are needed. Most of the increase in use is expected to take place in large heat and power production units which set special requirements for the supply as both procurement volumes and transport distances increase. Biomass fuel terminals broaden the spectrum of available supply options by offering cost-effective large-scale biomass storage and processing options for securing the fuel supply in all conditions. This study aimed to study different costs of a satellite terminal and to produce important concept and cost information for developing forest fuel logistics based on future terminals. The figures indicate that terminals do not create direct cost benefits per se: direct supply chains are more economical compared to supply through terminals. However, there are several indirect benefits that can be reached via fuel supply through terminals: regional fuel procurement can be widened to a national scale, security of supply increases through easily available storages, large supply volumes can be delivered by an individual operator, prices remain more stable and a more even quality of delivered fuel can be achieved.