气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响

将福建省划分为3个水稻种植区,选取19个样点,采用近5年(2000-2004年)中逢单年份的产量进行CERES-Rice模型参数的调试,逢双年份的产量用于检验模型在研究区域的适用性;利用GISS GCM Transient Run的输出值生成了每个样点2030年及2050年的气候变化情景;在各情景文件下运行CERES-Rice模型,并将模拟结果与当前气候情景(BASE情景)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比(β)、产量波动系数(F)等指标,定量评价了未来气候渐变过程对福建省水稻生产的影响;在此基础上提出了适应气候渐变的若干可能对策.结果表明:在未来气候变化过程中,研究区域水稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润;研究区域早稻及单季稻生育期都将不同程度的缩短,后季稻2050年情景下有所延长;闽东南及闽西北双季稻区产量在未来两种气候情景下均表现为减产,且减产幅度随温度升高而加大.闽西北山地气候的单季稻区表现为增产;当前闽东南水稻的稳产性最差,闽西北双季稻区的稳产性较好.未来气候变化中水稻稳产性将变差;未来两种气候情景下福建省水稻总产将随着温度的升高而减少.     

一种用于评价全球气候变化对中国南方水稻生产影响的效应模型--RCCMOD

将自主研制的水稻栽培计算机模拟优化决策系统(RCSODS)改造为适于全球气候变化影响评价的水稻效应模型(RCCMOD);利用中国南方9个有代表性样点的水稻区域试验资料与同期同地的天气资料,对RCCMOD进行可靠性检验;将RCCMOD分别在研究区域基准气候(Baseline)和3种基于大气环流模型(GCMs)的(2×CO2)气候变化情景下运行,并将模拟结果与同样条件下CERES Rice模型的模拟结果进行了比较,两者基本一致。     

气候变化对黑龙江省水稻生产的影响及对策研究

在全球气候变化的环境下,给全球经济的发展也带来了重要的影响,进而直接导致我国北方的农业种植制度、栽培措施与种植面积发生改变。近年来,随着市场经济浪潮的推进,我国粮食生产趋势得到增长。黑龙江省作为我国水稻的主要种植大省,对我国粮食安全的作用不可忽视。本文在水稻生产中所存在的问题的基础上,分析了目前气候变化导致的正面与负面影响因素,提出了水稻生产与种植应对气候变化的具体措施。     

气候变化对东北水稻生产的影响分析

全球气候变暖对农作物的生产造成了多方面的影响。水稻是我国三大粮食作物之一,东北水稻是我国粳稻的主产区,研究分析气候变化对东北水稻生产的影响,对保证我国粮食安全具有重要的意义。文章首先分析了东北地区气候变化的特点,从气候变化对东北水稻物候期、生育期、种植界限的影响分析气候变化对水稻生产的影响,并提出应对气候变化的对策建议。     

未来气候变化对福建省水稻生产的影响及其对策

在分析大气CO2、N2O、氟氯烃类等温室气体增加对福建农业气候资源影响的基础上，从CO2含量增加、紫外辐射增强、气温升高等角度阐述未来气候生产的影响，建立了温、光、水等主要气候因子变化对福建水稻产量影响的预测模式，并提出相应对策。     

未来气候变化对福建省水稻生产的影响及其对策

在分析大气 CO2 、N2 O、氟氯烃类等温室气体增加对福建农业气候资源影响的基础上 ,从 CO2 含量增加、紫外辐射增强、气温升高等角度阐述未来气候变化对福建水稻生产的影响 ,建立了温、光、水等主要气候因子变化对福建水稻产量影响的预测模式 ,并提出相应对策     

气候变化对水稻生产适应性对策的分析

一、最近几年气候变化的表现 1、温度有增高的趋势,但起伏大 前三十年平均温度只有1.8度,近十年的平均温度达到2.1度,虽然总体上的温度在升高,但个别年份和月份及各天的接近极值数还出现过,近几年极端最低气温达到零下39.8度,是有记录以来的第二个极值年,最高温度达到38.4度,出现了本地有记录以来的最高值,春季的低温可以从三月份持续到五月份下旬,前春的暖湿到后春止初夏的低温,盛夏时的阶段性低温,9月20日之前出现的早霜等都是在温度增高的大前提下出现的回落现象.     

气候变化对我国花生生产的影响

采用ＰＮＵＴＧＲＯ模型与气候变化情景耦联的方法，评价了未来全球气候变化对我国花生主产区花生生育期，产量和灌溉需要量的影响。结合有关热量指标，分析了当ＣＯ２有效倍增时我国花生主要产区向北延伸的幅度。     

气候变化对中国农业生产的影响

未来气候变化下中国农业的稳定事关中国的长远持续发展,国内外气候变化研究界和农业气象研究界对气候变化对中国农业生产的影响的评估未有一致的认识。本文从农业科学角度讨论了气候变化对中国农业生产涉及的气象资源、土地资源、农业生物环境和生态系统的影响,并从作物生长和经济产量形成的角度讨论和分析了气候变化对中国种植业、养殖业不同产业行业的影响,气候变化中一些趋势性变化因不同作物和不同区域而异,例如温度和CO_2浓度变化对农业生产的影响因不同作物和不同时相而异,反之,极端性气候/天气事件对农业不同行业的生产都显得危害很大,而气候变化中区域性干旱将成为我国未来农业生产愈来愈严重的挑战。气候变化对中国农业生产的影响甚为复杂,一些气候变化因子的实际影响还存在很大不确定性。当前,定量评价气候变化对中国农业生产的影响还存在困难。     

Climate Change Impact and Its Contribution Share to Paddy Rice Production in Jiangxi,China

In the study, an improved approach was proposed to identify the contribution shares of three group factors that are climate, technology and input, social economic factors by which the grain production is shaped. In order to calibrate the method, Jiangxi Province, one of the main paddy rice producers in China was taken as an example. Based on 50 years (1961–2010) meteorological and statistic data, using GIS and statistical analysis tools, the three group factors that in certain extent impact China's paddy rice production have been analyzed quantitatively. The individual and interactive contribution shares of each factor group have been identified via eta square (η²). In the paper, two group ordinary leasr square (OLS) models, paddy models and climate models, have been constructed for further analysis. Each model group consists of seven models, one full model and six partial models. The results of paddy models show that climate factors individually and interactively contribute 11.42–15.25% explanatory power to the variation of paddy rice production in the studied province. Technology and input factors contribute 16.17% individually and another 8.46% interactively together with climate factors, totally contributing about 25%. Social economic factors contribute about 7% of which 4.65% is individual contribution and 2.49% is interactive contribution together with climate factors. The three factor groups individually contribute about 23% and interactively contribute additional 41% to paddy rice production. In addition every two of the three factor groups also function interactively and contribute about 22%. Among the three factor groups, technology and input are the most important factors to paddy rice production. The results of climate models support the results of paddy models, and display that solar radiation (indicated by sunshine hour variable) is the dominate climate factor for paddy rice production.     

Climate Change Impact and Its Contribution Share to Paddy Rice Production in Jiangxi,China

In the study, an improved approach was proposed to identify the contribution shares of three group factors that are climate, technology and input, social economic factors by which the grain production is shaped. In order to calibrate the method, Jiangxi Province, one of the main paddy rice producers in China was taken as an example. Based on 50 years （1961-2010） meteorological and statistic data, using GIS and statistical analysis tools, the three group factors that in certain extent impact China＇s paddy rice production have been analyzed quantitatively. The individual and interactive contribution shares of each factor group have been identiifed via eta square （η2）. In the paper, two group ordinary leasr square （OLS） models, paddy models and climate models, have been constructed for further analysis. Each model group consists of seven models, one full model and six partial models. The results of paddy models show that climate factors individually and interactively contribute 11.42-15.25%explanatory power to the variation of paddy rice production in the studied province. Technology and input factors contribute 16.17%individually and another 8.46%interactively together with climate factors, totally contributing about 25%. Social economic factors contribute about 7%of which 4.65%is individual contribution and 2.49%is interactive contribution together with climate factors. The three factor groups individually contribute about 23%and interactively contribute additional 41%to paddy rice production. In addition every two of the three factor groups also function interactively and contribute about 22%. Among the three factor groups, technology and input are the most important factors to paddy rice production. The results of climate models support the results of paddy models, and display that solar radiation （indicated by sunshine hour variable） is the dominate climate factor for paddy rice production.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Strategies in China

China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture.     

Variation Characteristics of Hydrothermal Resources Effectiveness Under the Background of Climate Change in Southern Rice Production Area of China

The spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrothermal resources in southern rice production area of China have changed under the background of climate change,and this change would affect the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources during local rice growing period.According to the cropping system subdivision in southern rice production area of China during 1980s,this study used climate data from 254 meteorological stations and phonological data from 168 agricultural observation stations in the south of China,and adopted 6 international evaluation indices about the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of hydrothermal resources during the growing period of single cropping rice system and double cropping rice system for 16 planting zones in the whole study area.The results showed that：in southern rice production area of China,the effectiveness of thermal resources of single cropping rice area（SCRA） was less than that of double cropping rice area（DCRA）,whereas the effectiveness of thermal resources of both SARA and DCRA showed a decreasing trend.The index value of effective precipitation satisfaction of SCRA was higher than that of DCRA,nevertheless the index value of effective precipitation satisfaction of both SCRA and DCRA showed a decreasing trend.There was a significant linear relationship between effective thermal resource and water demand,likely water demand increased by 18 mm with every 100°C d increase of effective heat.Effective precipitation satisfaction index（EPSI） showed a negative correlation with effective heat,yet showed a positive correlation with effective precipitation.EPSI reduced by 1% when effective heat resource increased by 125°C d.This study could provide insights for policy makers,land managers or farmers to improve water and heat resource uses and rationally arrange rice production activities under global climate change condition.     

Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China's Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.     

气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响及适应对策

近100年来,全球地表温度呈不断升高的趋势,且这种趋势还将继续。全球气候变暖已经对许多自然系统和生物系统产生了可辨别的影响。农业是最脆弱的生态系统之一,受气候变化的影响也最直接。由于气候变化使农业气候资源发生变化,从而直接影响到农业种植结构、作物品种布局以及作物产量。综述了近年来气候变化对农作物产量、农业气候资源以及我国农业种植制度和作物品种布局影响的研究成果,并针对未来气候变化提出农业适应措施以及选择措施时应注意的一些问题。     

Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China

Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data

The impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 were studied in this paper, based on the provincial data, in order to develop scientiifc countermeasures. The results indicated that increase of average temperature improved single cropping rice production on national level by up to 11%relative to the average over the study period, however, it resulted in an overall loss of double cropping rice by up to 1.9%. The decrease of diurnal temperature range （DTR） in the major producing regions caused the decrease by up to 3.0%for single cropping rice production and 2.0%for double cropping rice production. Moreover, the contribution of precipitation change reached about 6.2%for single cropping rice production, but no signiifcant effect for double cropping rice production in recent 50 years.