Seroepidemiology of rinderpest in bovids in Sri Lanka using the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique

Approximately 0.2% (n=4397) of the bovids (cattle and buffalo) in Sri Lanka were sampled, from June 1992 using a multi-stage sampling procedure. Serum antibodies for the rinderpest virus were detected using the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The age, the agroclimatic zone, the management system practiced in the farms, and the vaccination history of the sampled bovids were studied as potential risk factors for being seropositive.

The prevalence of rinderpest antibodies in non-vaccinated bovids was 3.5% (n=4101). The prevalence was higher in the dry zone (9%; where the outbreak emerged in 1987), compared to bovids in the other zones (1%). Seropositive bovids over three years of age were approximately at fourfold higher chances of being seropositive compared to those that were ≤3 years old. The higher prevalence in older animals is probably due to exposure to the virus during the 1987 epidemic. Bovids from the dry zone (annual rainfall 20 to 35 inches) were at higher odds of being seropositive even after controlling for the possible effects of age, agroclimatic zone, management system and vaccination. The fact that 62% of bovids from the dry zone in this study were reared under extensive management system (free grazing) which allow unrestricted contact between animals, may be the reason for the above finding. A relatively poor response to vaccination observed in vaccinated bovids (seroprevalence=12%; n=296) could be attributed to difficulties in maintaining the vaccine at recommended temperatures in the field. This is the first island-wide study on seroprevalence of rinderpest in Sri Lanka.     

A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa

The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1–2 years and 5 years, respectively).     

Epidemiological assessment of rinderpest surveillance and control in Uganda between 1990 and 1998

Based on passive and active data, we report on an epidemiological assessment of surveillance and control of rinderpest (RP) in Uganda between 1990 and 1998. Active data were collected by administration of questionnaires to animal health personnel and their auxiliaries and to stockowners in six selected districts of eastern and northeastern Uganda. Passive data were extracted from vaccination and seromonitoring reports, and from field and laboratory reports. RP events were classified as “confirmed outbreaks”, “suspected outbreaks” and “rumours”. The classification of 56% of the RP events as “suspected outbreaks” indicates the difficulty in investigating disease outbreaks in Uganda. Although vaccination coverage and seroprevalence were <85% (the recommended target), they nevertheless corresponded well-reflecting effective vaccination. However, because of the low seroprevalence, a sizable population of cattle in Uganda remained at risk of RP. The agreement between the local and national disease reporting systems was low-to-moderate (κ=0.39); this indicates inefficiency in disease reporting.

Risk factors for RP outbreaks were cattle raids and communal grazing. Based on overlaid thematic maps of seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and RP events, close spatial and temporal associations were observed between cattle raids, transhumance and outbreaks and rumours. The high-risk areas were in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country. The results of this study support a phase approach of following the OIE pathway.     

Expert judgement in a risk assessment model for Salmonella spp. in pork: The performance of different weighting schemes

A structured expert judgement study was carried out in order to obtain input parameters for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. This model aimed to estimate the risk of human Salmonella infections associated with the consumption of minced pork meat. Judgements of 11 experts were used to derive subjective probability density functions (PDFs) to quantify the uncertainty on the model input parameters.The performance of experts as probability assessors was measured by the experts’ ability to correctly and precisely provide estimates for a set of seed variables (=variables from the experts’ area of expertise for which the true values were known to the analyst). Subsequently different weighting schemes or “decision makers” (DMs) were applied using Cooke's classical model in order to obtain combined PDFs as a weighted linear combination of the expert's individual PDFs.The aim of this study was to compare the performance of four DMs namely the equal weight DM (each expert's opinion received equal weight), the user weight DM (weights are determined by the expert's self-perceived level of expertise) and two performance-based DMs: the global weight DM and the item weight DM. Weights in the performance-based DMs were calculated based on the expert's calibration and information performance as measured on the set of seed variables.The item weight DM obtained the highest performance with a calibration score of 0.62 and an information score of 0.52, as compared to the other DMs. The weights of the performance-based DMs outperformed those of the best expert in the panel. The correlation between the scores for self-rating of expertise and the weights based on the experts’ performance on the calibration variables was low and not significant (r = 0.37, p = 0.13).The applied classical model provided a rational basis to use the combined distributions obtained by the item weight DM as input in the QMRA model since this DM yielded generally more informative distributions for the variables of interest than those obtained by the equal weight and user weight DM. Attention should be paid to find adequate and relevant seed variables, since this is important for the validation of the results of the weighting scheme.     

A quantitative assessment of the risk of exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy via meat-and-bone meal in Japan

The feeding of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) derived from cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a major source of BSE infection. The risks of BSE infection via MBM in Japan were examined quantitatively to estimate infectivity to cattle via MBM derived from a single clinically infected animal being rendered. Three routes of exposure were modeled: (i) feeding cattle concentrates containing MBM as an ingredient, (ii) feeding cattle concentrates contaminated with MBM from non-ruminant feed at feed plants and (iii) directly feeding MBM in supplemental form to cattle on farms. The effectiveness of measures designed to restrict the feeding of ruminants with ruminant MBM (feed restriction) as well as differences in the risk of exposure among regions were examined using the model.

The model revealed that the median total infectivity fed to dairy cattle via MBM derived from one infected animal was approximately 0.49 cattle oral ID₅₀ (5th percentile = 0.43 ID₅₀, 95th percentile = 0.54 ID₅₀). This value was reduced by 55% after the addition of MBM to cattle concentrates was restricted in 1996. The risk of exposure in dairy cattle was twice that in beef cattle. Comparisons of regional differences in exposure risk indicated that the risk was highest in a region where 14 of the 20 BSE cases reported to date were born. Our model suggested that the routes of exposure via MBM were unlikely to result in increased propagation of BSE in Japan. Furthermore, despite some regional variation, the risk of exposure declined further after the feed restriction was imposed in 1996.     

布病移动传播风险评估方法的建立

布病是由布鲁氏杆菌引起的一种人畜共患病。本文通过对引起布病传播的风险因子进行综合分析与评价,利用层次分析法,建立目标树图,对各种风险因子建立成对比较判断优选矩阵,计算权重值,并对权重值进行一致性指数检验和随机一致性比率检验,根据权重值大小即传播风险性的大小,有针对性的采取不同的控制措施,从而将患病动物移动造成布病传播的风险控制到最低。     

Risk factors perceived predictive of ISA spread in Chile: Applications to decision support

Aquaculture is anticipated to be a critical element in future solutions to global food shortage. However, diseases can impede industry efficiency and sustainability. Consequently, diseases can and have led to dramatic re-structuring in industry or regulatory practices. The emergence of infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Chile is one such example. As in other countries, many mitigations were instituted universally, and many incurred considerable costs as they introduced a new layer of coordination of farming activities of marine sites within common geographic areas (termed ‘neighborhoods’ or ‘barrios’). The aggregate response led to a strong reduction in ISA incidence and impact. However, the relative value of individual mitigations is less clear, especially where response policies were universally applied and retrospective analyses are missing ‘controls’ (i.e., areas where a mitigation was not applied). Further, re-focusing policies around disease prevention following resolution of an outbreak is important to renew sustainable production; though, again, field data to guide this shift in purpose are often lacking. Expert panels can offer timely decision support in the absence of empirical data.     

A quantitative assessment of the BSE risk associated with fly ash and slag from the incineration of meat-and-bone meal in a gas-fired power plant in Denmark

It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 °C for at least 2 s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete.

Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash in controlled landfills and the feasibility of use of the ash by the phosphate and fertilizer industries.

We assumed that all specified risk material (SRM) and MBM produced in Denmark would be incinerated in this gas-fired power plant. Based on observations in 2001, we assumed that, on average, six (range: 0–15) clinical BSE cases each year were rendered into MBM and incinerated. In addition, SRM or carcasses from 0 to 31 (median = 10) BSE-infected-but-undetected animals/BSE case were also incinerated.

The simulations were run on a 1-week basis. Our results suggest that if the slag is collected and re-incinerated the median BSE infectivity remaining in the fly ash per week would be 3.1E−11 cattle ID₅₀. A cattle ID₅₀ is the amount of infectivity that will cause infection in 50% of cattle exposed to it. During the weeks when BSE was infected in the SRM-MBM, the median infectivity in the fly ash was estimated as 8.7E−10 cattle ID₅₀ and 2.9E−12 human ID₅₀. The 95th percentiles were 2.1E−08 cattle ID₅₀ and 5.8E−10 human ID₅₀, respectively. One ton of fly ash would contain ≤1.8E−07 cattle ID₅₀ 95% of the time. These are the potential exposures of the cattle or human populations. The potential exposures of individuals are far less.     

Management- and housing-related risk factors of respiratory disorders in non-weaned French Charolais calves

Our aim was to determine at calf-batch level the management- and housing-related risk factors of respiratory disorders in non-weaned Charolais calves. Farmers recorded cases according to the definition provided i.e. the association of at least one respiratory sign and, in the same calf or another calf of the same batch, at least one general sign on the same day or the day before. During farm visits, quality of farmers’ records was checked and questionnaires were applied to gather farm and herd characteristics and to describe farming practices and housing facilities. Data were suitable for analysis for 172 batches where no metaphylactic treatment was implemented. Batches had great disparity in incidence of respiratory disorders. In the 120 batches with at least one case, the quartiles of incidence rate were, respectively, 0.95, 2.15 and 3.59 cases per 1000 calf-days at-risk. For risk-factor analysis, the statistical unit was the calf-batch located in a given batch. We used a ZINB model because (i) there was significant overdispersion of incidence rates of respiratory disorders (overdispersion test statistic of O = 1049 (P < 0.001)), (ii) probability was high that a two-group modelling process existed (Vuong statistic of V = 2.44 (P = 0.0073)) and (iii) the ZINB model fit significantly better than the ZIP model (likelihood-ratio statistic of 340.14 (P < 0.001)). The risk was higher in open-fronted barns or in open barns compared to closed ones (incidence-rate ratios (IRRs): 1.9 and 1.8), in barns where no annual disinfection was implemented (IRR: 1.5) and in part slope with straw/part scraped and in part straw-bedded/part scraped barns compared to completely straw-bedded barns (IRRs: 1.9 and 1.6). Larger calf-batches were more at-risk than smaller batches (OR for the effect of an increase of 10 calves on the probability of a 0 count: 0.5).     

A scoring system for risk assessment of the introduction and spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy herds in Northern Italy

To support a voluntary disease control program, this study aimed to develop an integrated scoring system for the risk assessment of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in dairy herds in Northern Italy. Sixty-two dairy herds were classified according to their BVDV serological status. Farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire on potential BVDV risk factors. Scores were used to define risk levels for factors related to (1) BVDV introduction (through livestock trade, attendance of animals at shows/exhibitions and grazing common pasture), (2) within-herd spread of BVDV and (3) the results of initial serological testing. The calculated odds ratios were significant for all categories, except for livestock trade. The application of the screening test, the questionnaire and the related risk assessment showed this to be a practical approach to predicting BVDV herd status.     

规模化猪场生物安全体系纵深打造探讨

我国是养猪大国,但并不是养猪强国,生产效率较低,养殖水平虽有提高,但与养猪发达国家之间的差距还比较大,其中生物安全意识淡薄、生物安全体系不完善是一个重要因素。生物安全体系是一种防控猪群疫病的综合措施,完善的生物安全体系可有效切断病原与猪群之间的接触,或者有效降低猪群生存环境或机体内病原数量,使得猪群不发病。文章从猪场生物安全体系建设的主要内容来进行阐述,以期为猪场生物安全体系建设提供思路或借鉴。     

Quantitative risk assessment for the annual risk of exposure to Trichinella spiralis in imported chilled pork meat from New Zealand to Singapore

Abstract

AIMS: To determine the annual likelihood of exposure to an infectious dose of Trichinella spiralis from consuming imported pork meat from New Zealand to Singapore.

METHODS: Input values specific for chilled pork meat imported into Singapore from New Zealand were used in a quantitative risk-assessment model. The model, designed to allow any combination of importing and exporting countries, was divided into two components, viz the release assessment, and the exposure assessment that assessed the annual risk of exposure to the consumer (ARC). The former estimated the likelihood that a contaminated fresh meat product from New Zealand would arrive at Singapore's border, and took into consideration the prevalence of disease on different types of farms. The latter determined the likelihood over a year that a person in Singapore would consume one or more servings of imported fresh meat from New Zealand that contained a burden of greater than or equal to one larva(e) of T. spiralis per gram after preparation for consumption.

RESULTS: The ARC for offal was 2.41 × 10^?7, which was below the pre-selected safety threshold of 1.00 × 10^?6. The ARC for lean meat was 2.39 x 10^?5, which was above the acceptable safety threshold.

CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that continued routine testing at slaughter is unnecessary for pig offal produced commercially, and provided a model with which to further assess management of the risk of exposure to T. spiralis in lean meat.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The potential of Trichinella species to cause disease in humans is a public health concern, and has created adverse effects on the international trade of fresh lean meat without regard to the surveillance measures employed by particular pork-producing countries.     

Analysis of risk factors associated with bovine leukemia virus seropositivity within dairy and beef breeding farms in Japan: A nationwide survey

This cross-sectional study evaluated risk factors associated with farm-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) seropositivity in 563 dairy and 490 beef farms throughout Japan. Twenty randomly selected cattle on each farm were serologically tested, and farm epidemiologiocal information was obtained through face-to-face interviews. Due to the large number of zero-prevalence dairy and beef farms, data analysis was performed using a zero-inflated negative binomial model, which revealed that the common risk factors associated with higher within-farm seroprevalence were past detection of clinical leukemia and presence of blood-sucking insects. Loose housing on dairy farms and direct contact between calves and adult cattle on beef farms were also identified as risk factors. With regard to farm-level presence of BLV, the presence of purchased cattle was found to be a risk factor in both sectors. Sending heifers to a common ranch was identified as an additional risk factor for dairy farms.     

Assessing the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 transmission through poultry movements in Bali,Indonesia

Indonesia continues to report the highest number of human and poultry cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. The disease is considered to be endemic on the island of Bali. Live bird markets are integral in the poultry supply chain on Bali and are important, nutritionally and culturally, for the rural and urban human populations. Due to the lack of biosecurity practiced along the supply chain from producer to live bird markets, there is a need to understand the risks associated with the spread of H5N1 through live bird movements for effective control. Resources to control H5N1 in Indonesia are very limited and cost effective strategies are needed. We assessed the probability a live bird market is infected through live poultry movements and assessed the effects of implementing two simple and low cost control measures on this risk. Results suggest there is a high risk a live bird market is infected (0.78), and risk mitigation strategies such as detecting and removing infected poultry from markets reduce this risk somewhat (range 0.67–0.76). The study demonstrates the key role live poultry movements play in transmitting H5N1 and the need to implement a variety of control measures to reduce disease spread.     

Factor analysis of a Johne's disease risk assessment questionnaire with evaluation of factor scores and a subset of original questions as predictors of observed clinical paratuberculosis

Factor analysis was used to examine the interrelationships among 38 variables collected as part of a Johne's disease risk assessment questionnaire completed in 2002 on 815 U.S. dairy operations. Eleven factors were extracted, accounting for two-thirds of the variance encountered in the original variables. Responses to many of the risk assessment questions were closely related. Standardized scores on the 11 factors were calculated for operations providing complete information, and were evaluated as predictors in a model-based logistic regression analysis with the outcome being whether operations had observed one or more cows with clinical signs suggestive of paratuberculosis during the previous year. A logistic regression model was also used to evaluate the predictive ability of a reduced subset of approximately one-third of the original variables that was selected to represent the derived factors. The performance of both sets of predictors was comparable with respect to goodness-of-fit and predictive ability. In conclusion, the length of the current risk assessment instrument could be reduced considerably without a substantial loss of information by removing or combining questions that are strongly correlated.     

基于投影寻踪模型的草原蝗虫栖境评价及风险评估

草原蝗虫发生与栖境存在紧密而复杂的关系,二者关系的研究是评估蝗灾发生风险的基础。本文分析了不同栖境内蝗虫种群密度与21个植被特征参数的相关关系,利用投影寻踪模型进行了栖境评价及风险评估,并进行模型验证。结果表明,低优参数植物生物量多样性对蝗虫种群密度影响最大,最佳投影向量a为0.6725;高优参数禾本科生态优势度对亚洲小车蝗密度影响最大,最佳投影向量a为0.6547;样点植被投影特征值Z_i与蝗虫种群密度线性相关关系极显著(y=48.861x-18.937,R=0.9509^**),Z_i越大,栖境内植被越适合蝗虫的发生,蝗灾发生的风险越高,根据Z_i值可预测不同栖境草原蝗虫的发生。投影寻踪模型评价不同植被条件下蝗虫的发生风险,可以排除与数据结构和特征无关或关系很小变量的干扰,是一种更稳健实用的方法,对于蝗虫的监测预警具有重要意义。     

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for human salmonellosis due to multi-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 from consumption of Danish dry-cured pork sausages

Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (DT104) is unwanted in products for human consumption due to its antibiotic resistance and ability to cause disease. We intended to set up an improved monitoring and management program to aid in deciding when to use pork contaminated with DT104 for production of sausages without jeopardizing consumer safety. We started by carrying out two assessments of the risk for human health associated with consumption of sausages produced by: (1) Danish pork from average slaughter days; (2) imported pork (IMP) with average prevalence of DT104. The assessments showed that, if Salmonella is present, it is usually in lower numbers (≤50 per 400 cm² surface). Additionally, during processing, the numbers will be reduced by at least 2 log-units. In Danish (DK) pork, DT104 constitutes 0.2–1.0% of the Salmonella isolates reported, while in imported pork (IMP), 18%. We estimated that out of one million, 25 g servings of DK dry-cured sausages, up to two DT104 bacteria could be found in each of 245 servings. Out of one million servings of 25 g IMP dry-cured sausages, up to two DT104 bacteria would occur in each of 19,260 servings.     

中国猪瘟风险评估框架的构建

为量化评估我国发生猪瘟的风险,本研究通过分析影响猪瘟发生的风险因素,确定7个风险因素12个子风险因素.遵循指标选择原则,将风险因素按照传染源、传播途径、易感动物3个风险来源归纳为9个风险评估指标,并采取层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和多指标综合评价法,探索构建由评估指标体系、指标权重、评价标准、综合评价函数组成的猪瘟风险评估框架.以西南某地区和华中某地区为例对该框架进行初步验证,风险评估结果为2008年西南某地区和华中某地区均为猪瘟发生高风险地区,风险概率分别为0.91996和0.69332.经与两地区2008年发生猪瘟疫情情况进行比较,表明该框架具有一定的可操作性,评估结果与疫情发生情况具有一定的相关性.     

Cost-effectiveness of measures to prevent classical swine fever introduction into The Netherlands

Recent history has demonstrated that classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics can incur high economic losses, especially for exporting countries that have densely populated pig areas and apply a strategy of non-vaccination, such as The Netherlands. Introduction of CSF virus (CSFV) remains a continuing threat to the pig production sector in The Netherlands. Reducing the annual probability of CSFV introduction (P_CSFV) by preventive measures is therefore of utmost importance. The choice of preventive measures depends not only on the achieved reduction of the annual P_CSFV, but also on the expenditures required for implementing these measures. The objective of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of tactical measures aimed at the prevention of CSFV introduction into The Netherlands. For this purpose for each measure (i) model calculations were performed with a scenario tree model for CSFV introduction and (ii) its annual cost was estimated. The cost-effectiveness was then determined as the reduction of the annual P_CSFV achieved by each preventive measure (ΔP) divided by the annual cost of implementing that measure (ΔC). The measures analysed reduce the P_CSFV caused by import or export of pigs. Results showed that separation of national and international transport of pigs is the most cost-effective measure, especially when risk aversion is assumed. Although testing piglets and breeding pigs by a quick and reliable PCR also had a high cost-effectiveness ratio, this measure is not attractive due to the high cost per pig imported. Besides, implementing such a measure is not allowed under current EU law, as it is trade restrictive.     

乳中硫氰酸盐对人类健康的风险评估

全面综述了乳中硫氰酸盐对人类健康的风险。介绍了硫氰酸盐在生鲜乳中保鲜使用情况,乳中硫氰酸盐的正常生理浓度和检测方法,乳及人体内硫氰酸盐的来源和影响因素,乳中硫氰酸盐对人类健康的毒性作用及风险评估。