Application of network analysis parameters in risk-based surveillance - examples based on cattle trade data and bovine infections in Sweden

Financial resources may limit the number of samples that can be collected and analysed in disease surveillance programmes. When the aim of surveillance is disease detection and identification of case herds, a risk-based approach can increase the sensitivity of the surveillance system. In this paper, the association between two network analysis measures, i.e. 'in-degree' and 'ingoing infection chain', and signs of infection is investigated. It is shown that based on regression analysis of combined data from a recent cross-sectional study for endemic viral infections and network analysis of animal movements, a positive serological result for bovine coronavirus (BCV) and bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is significantly associated with the purchase of animals. For BCV, this association was significant also when accounting for herd size and regional cattle density, but not for BRSV. Examples are given for different approaches to include cattle movement data in risk-based surveillance by selecting herds based on network analysis measures. Results show that compared to completely random sampling these approaches increase the number of detected positives, both for BCV and BRSV in our study population. It is concluded that network measures for the relevant time period based on updated databases of animal movements can provide a simple and straight forward tool for risk-based sampling.     

An assessment of external biosecurity on southern Ontario swine farms and its application to surveillance on a geographic level

Risk-based surveillance is becoming increasingly important in the veterinary and public health fields. It serves as a means of increasing surveillance sensitivity and improving cost-effectiveness in an increasingly resource-limited environment. Our approach for developing a tool for the risk-based geographical surveillance of contagious diseases of swine incorporates information about animal density and external biosecurity practices within swine herds in southern Ontario. The objectives of this study were to group the sample of herds into discrete biosecurity groups, to develop a map of southern Ontario that can be used as a tool in the risk-based geographical surveillance of contagious swine diseases, and to identify significant predictors of biosecurity group membership. A subset of external biosecurity variables was selected for 2-step cluster analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). It was determined that 4 was the best number of groups to describe the data, using both analytical approaches. The authors named these groups: i) high biosecurity herds that were open with respect to replacement animals; ii) high biosecurity herds that were closed with respect to replacement animals; iii) moderate biosecurity herds; and iv) low biosecurity herds. The risk map was developed using information about the geographic distribution of herds in the biosecurity groups, as well as the density of swine sites and of grower-finisher pigs in the study region. Finally, multinomial logistic regression identified heat production units (HPUs), number of incoming pig shipments per month, and herd type as significant predictors of biosecurity group membership. It was concluded that the ability to identify areas of high and low risk for disease may improve the success of surveillance and eradication projects.     

Defining output-based standards to achieve and maintain tuberculosis freedom in farmed deer, with reference to member states of the European Union

Within the European Union (EU), detailed legislation has been developed for cattle, but not deer, to minimise disease risks associated with trade in animals and animal products. This legislation is expressed as input-based standards, providing a detailed outline of the activity required (for example, testing of animals and application of defined control measures), on the expectation that an adequate output (for example, confidence in freedom) will be achieved. Input-based standards are at odds with the increasing shift towards output-based standards, particularly in OIE rules governing international trade. In this paper, we define output-based standards to achieve and maintain freedom from tuberculosis (TB) in farmed deer, with reference to EU member states. After considering the probability of freedom achieved for cattle under existing EU legislation, we defined a ‘free farmed deer holding’ as one with a probability of freedom from infection of at least 99%. We then developed an epidemiological model of TB surveillance systems for deer holdings, incorporating different surveillance strategies, including combinations of diagnostic tests, and a variety of different scenarios relating to the potential for introduction of infection. A range of surveillance strategies were identified to achieve and maintain a free farmed deer holding, and worked examples are presented. The surveillance system sensitivity for varying combinations of screening and confirmatory tests in live animals, animals at slaughter and on-farm deaths is also presented. Using a single test at a single point in time, none of the TB tests routinely used in farmed deer is able to achieve an acceptable probability of TB freedom. If repeat testing were undertaken, an acceptable probability of TB freedom could be achieved, with differing combinations of the surveillance system sensitivity, frequency of testing and risk of introduction. The probability of introduction of infection through the importation of infected deer was influenced by the use of a pre-movement test (assumed 90% test sensitivity and negative test results), the TB prevalence in the source herd and the number of animals imported. A surveillance system sensitivity of at least 81% was achieved with different combinations of annual live animal surveillance and surveillance of animals at slaughter or on-farm deaths. This methodology has broad applicability and could also be extended to other diseases in both deer and other species with relevance to trade in animals and animal products.     

Bayesian analysis of animal movements related to factors at herd and between herd levels: Implications for disease spread modeling

A method to assess the influence of between herd distances, production types and herd sizes on patterns of between herd contacts is presented. It was applied on pig movement data from a central database of the Swedish Board of Agriculture. To determine the influence of these factors on the contact between holdings we used a Bayesian model and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters. The analysis showed that the contact pattern via animal movements is highly heterogeneous and influenced by all three factors, production type, herd size, and distance between holdings. Most production types showed a positive relationship between maximum capacity and the probability of both incoming and outgoing movements. In agreement with previous studies, holdings also differed in both the number of contacts as well as with what holding types contact occurred with. Also, the scale and shape of distance dependence in contact probability was shown to differ depending on the production types of holdings.To demonstrate how the methodology may be used for risk assessment, disease transmissions via animal movements were simulated with the model used for analysis of contacts, and parameterized by the analyzed posterior distribution. A Generalized Linear Model showed that herds with production types Sow pool center, Multiplying herd and Nucleus herd have higher risk of generating a large number of new infections. Multiplying herds are also expected to generate many long distance transmissions, while transmissions generated by Sow pool centers are confined to more local areas. We argue that the methodology presented may be a useful tool for improvement of risk assessment based on data found in central databases.     

On the surveillance for animal diseases in small herds

Small herds may present a problem in surveillance for infectious animal diseases because typical levels of a within-herd design prevalence are not directly applicable. We suggest a definition of small herds as those smaller than 2/(within-herd design prevalence) on the basis that such herds would be expected to have less than two (i.e. only one) infected animals. Consequently, the probability of detecting small herds cannot be improved by choosing a larger sample size within the herd. We derive necessary sample sizes of herds and the probability (“confidence”) of detecting disease within a stratum of small herds, given the among-herd design prevalence and test diagnostic sensitivity. Both a binomial model and a Poisson model can be used to establish the confidence for a given sample size of herds (and vice versa). The results of a simulation study suggest that the Poisson model provides more conservative (lower) estimates of the confidence for a given sample size and should therefore be preferred.     

Risk factors for infection of sow herds with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus

In 1992, the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) of European type (PRRSV-EU) was introduced in Denmark. By 1996, the virus had spread to approximately 25% of the Danish herds. In January 1996, a modified-live vaccine based on the American type of the virus (PRRSV-US) was used in replacement boars for Danish artificial insemination (AI) centres and from July 1996, the vaccine was used in PRRSV-EU infected herds for prevention of disease. Soon after vaccine introduction, PRRSV non-infected herds experienced outbreaks of disease due to infection with PRRSV-US. In this study, we investigated the risk factors (biosecurity level, animals, exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbour herds, semen, herd size, pig density and herd density) for infection with PRRSV-US in a cohort of 1071 sow herds; we used a nested case-control study. The retrospective observation period lasted from June 1996 (when they all were non-infected) to October 1997. Seventy-three non-vaccinated, closed sow herds became infected with the vaccine strain during this period. Each case herd was matched with two control herds from the cohort (controls had not been infected at the time of infection in the case herds). The data were analysed using a Cox-regression model. The hazard of infection increased significantly with exposure from PRRSV-US-infected neighbouring herds, purchase of animals from herds incubating PRRSV-US infection, increasing herd size and purchase of semen from boars at PRRSV-US-infected AI centres. The results are consistent with the modified-live vaccine strain spread to other herds by trade with animals and semen and by neighbour (area) transmission. We suggest that virus spread by aerosols was a frequent mode of transmission.     

Risk factors for the between-herd spread of Mycobacterium bovis in Canadian cattle and cervids between 1985 and 1994.

Microorganisms of the genus Mycobacterium cause tuberculosis in many animal species including humans. Generally, Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) infects cattle and cervids, but it has the potential to infect virtually all species of mammals. This study examined and analysed the data from the nine outbreaks of tuberculosis in Canadian cattle and cervids from 1985 to 1994. For the purposes of this study, a positive herd was one with at least one culture-positive animal. A reactor herd had at least one animal which was positive or suspicious on a mid-cervical, comparative cervical, or gross or histopathologic test for tuberculosis. Herd classification was either reactor/positive or negative. Data for the study were collected from the outbreak records in the Regional or District offices of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Logistic regression was used to study spread of tuberculosis between herds. Two risk factors were identified: increasing herd size; and, the reason why a herd was investigated as part of the outbreak. This latter factor was interpreted as a surrogate measure for the nature of contact between the study herd and other potentially infected herds in the outbreak. Increasing herd size was associated with an increased risk of being positive for tuberculosis with herds of 16-35, 36-80, and >80 animals having odds ratios of 2.9, 5.8, and 9.3, respectively, when compared to a herd size of <16 animals (p < 0.001). When compared to perimeter testing (i.e. testing herds within a specified radius of an infected herd), all other reasons for investigation had higher odds ratios (p < 0.001). These odds ratios were 57.8 for traceout herds (i.e. herds which had purchased animal(s) from a reactor/positive herd), 31.8 for herds with pasture or fence-line contact with a reactor/positive herd, and 14.9 for traceback herds (i.e. herds which had been a source of animals for reactor/positive herd(s)).     

Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection in goats. II. The prevalence of caseous lymphadenitis in 36 goat herds in Northern Norway

The precalen-ce of caseous lymphadenitis was surveyed in 36 goat herds in Northern Norway. In each herd, information concerning the occurrence of the disease was obtained from the farmer. Adult animals (1 year of age or older) in 35 herds were examined for superficial swellings, and serum samples were collected from most animals in the herds. The sera were examined for antibodies to Corynebacterium pseudotuber-culosis using the bacterial agglutination test (BAT) and the hemolysis inhibition test (HIT).Gaseous lymphadenitis was diagnosed with certainty in 19 herds. Information from the farmers indicated that the disease indeed oc-curred in these herds, and that the majority had been infected with the disease for many years. The herds had apparently become infected through contact with animals from infected herds. Clinical examina-tions were carried out in 18 of these herds and superficial swellings were found in 26 % of the examined animals. The prevalence of ani-mals with lesions varied from 11 to 40 % among the herds. Of the animals in these herds, 81 % were positive in BAT and 84 % in HIT. The prevalence of positive animals varied from 26 to 99 % in BAT and 28 to 99 % in HIT. The prevalence of seropositive animals was lowest in a herd in which animals were kept separately in stalls.Caseous lymphadenitis could not be diagnosed in 16 herds. In-formation from the farmers indicated that the disease indeed seemed to be absent in 14 of these herds. These 14 herds had no history of contact with animals from herds considered to be infected. However, in the remaining 2 herds, the farmers were somewhat uncertain about the occurrence of the disease. One of these 2 herds had a history of contact with infected herds through participation in a goat “breeding circle”. Only a few of the animals were, however, seropositive and all these had low antibody titres.In 1 newly established herd, a single animal showed a high posi-tive titre in BAT only. All the other animals were negative in both tests. This particular herd consisted of animals obtained both from herds with caseous lymphadenitis and from herds in which the disease was not considered to occur.     

Impact of changes in cattle movement regulations on the risks of bovine tuberculosis for Scottish farms

Legislation requiring the pre- and post-movement testing of cattle imported to Scotland from regions with high bovine tuberculosis (bTB) incidence was phased in between September 2005 and May 2006 as part of efforts to maintain Officially Tuberculosis Free (OTF) status. In this analysis, we used centralized cattle movement records to investigate the influence of the legislative change on import movement patterns and the movement-based risk factors associated with new bTB herd breakdowns identified through routine testing or slaughter surveillance. The immediate reduction in the number of import movements from high incidence regions of England and Wales into Scotland suggests that pre- and post-movement testing legislation has had a strong deterrent effect on cattle import trade. Combined with the direct benefits of a more stringent testing regime, this likely explains the observed decrease in the odds of imported cattle subsequently being identified as reactors in herd breakdowns detected through routine surveillance compared to Scottish cattle. However, at the farm-level, herds that recently imported cattle from high incidence regions were still at increased risk of experiencing bTB breakdowns, which highlights the delay between the introduction of disease control measures and detectable changes in incidence. With the relative infrequency of routine herd tests and the insidious nature of clinical signs, past import movements were likely still important in determining the present farm-level risk for bTB breakdown. However, the possibility of low-level transmission between Scottish cattle herds cannot be ruled out given the known issues with test sensitivity, changes in import animal demographics, and the potential for on-farm transmission. Findings from this analysis emphasize the importance of considering how farmer behavioural change in response to policy interventions may influence disease transmission dynamics.     

Biosecurity and minimal disease herds.

The minimal disease concept is a way of raising pigs so that some specific diseases are absent. Many bacteria and viruses can be transferred by pigs, air, or mechanical contact. To avoid contamination, the herd location should take into consideration disease transmission possibilities. Herd health status and source herd health status should be continuously monitored. To maintain herd health status, specific rules need to be followed for herd construction and establishment, compound perimeter, people movement, down time, animal transportation, feed use and delivery, vehicle movement, material, dead animal disposition, and rodent control. All new incoming animals should go through quarantine, and in some herds, safer methods such as AI, embryo transfer, MEW, or hysterectomy and fostering need to be used.     

Implementing a probabilistic definition of freedom from infection to facilitate trade of livestock: putting theory into praxis for the example of bovine herpes virus-1

International trade of livestock and livestock products poses a significant potential threat for spread of diseases, and importing countries therefore often require that imported animals and products are free from certain pathogens. However, absolute freedom from infection cannot be documented, since all test protocols are imperfect and can lead to false-negative results. It is possible instead to estimate the "probability of freedom from infection" and its opposite, the probability of infection despite having a negative test result. These probabilities can be estimated based on a pre-defined target prevalence, known surveillance efforts in the target population and known test characteristics of any pre-export test. Here, calculations are demonstrated using the example of bovine herpes virus-1 (BoHV-1). In a population that recently became free of BoHV-1 without using vaccination, the probability of being infected of an animal randomly selected for trade is 800 per 1 million and this probability is reduced to 64 (95% probability interval PI 6-161) per 1 million when this animal is tested negatively prior to export with a gB-ELISA. In a population that recently became free of BoHV-1 using vaccination, the probability of being infected of an animal randomly selected for trade is 200 per 1 million, and this probability can be reduced to 63 (95% PI 42-87) when this animal is tested negatively prior to export with a gE-ELISA. Similar estimations can be made on a herd level when assumptions are made about the herd size and the intensity of the surveillance efforts. Subsequently, the overall probability for an importing country of importing at least 1 infected animal can be assessed by taking into account the trade volume. Definition of the acceptable level of risk, including the probability of false-negative results to occur, is part of risk management. Internationally harmonized target prevalence levels for the declaration of freedom from infection from selected pathogens provide a significant contribution to the facilitation of international trade of livestock and livestock products by allowing exporting countries to design tailor-made output-based surveillance programs, while providing equivalent guarantees regarding the probability of freedom from infection of the population. Combining this with an approach to assess the overall probability of introducing at least 1 infected animal into an importing country during a defined time interval will help importing countries to achieve their desired level of acceptable risk and will help to assess the equivalence of animal health and food safety standards between trading partners.     

Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.     

Prevalence and distribution of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in cattle herds in Ireland

A simple random survey was conducted in Ireland during 2005 to estimate the ELISA-prevalence of paratuberculosis, commonly called Johne's disease (JD), in the cattle population. Serum samples were collected from all 20,322 females/breeding bulls over 12 months-of-age in 639 herds. All samples were tested using a commercially available absorbed ELISA. The overall prevalence of infected herds, based on the presence of at least one ELISA-positive animal, was 21.4% (95% CI 18.4%-24.9%). Herd prevalence levels amongst dairy herds (mean 31.5%; 95% CI: 24.6%, 39.3%) was higher than among beef herds (mean 17.9%; 95% CI: 14.6%-21.8%). However, the animal level prevalence was similar. The true prevalence among all animals tested, was calculated to be 2.86% (95%CI: 2.76, 2.97) and for animals >= 2 yrs, it was 3.30% (95%CI: 3.17, 3.43). For animals in beef herds, true prevalence was 3.09% (95%CI: 2.93, 3.24), and for those in dairy herds, 2.74% (95%CI: 2.59, 2.90). The majority of herds had only one ELISA-positive infected animal. Only 6.4% (95% CI 4.7%-8.7%) of all herds had more than one ELISA-positive infected animal; 13.3% (CI 8.7%-19.7%) of dairy herds ranging from two to eight ELISA-positive infected animals; and, 3.9% beef herds (CI 2.4%-6.2%) ranging from two to five ELISA-positive infected animals. The true prevalence of herds infected and shedding Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis is estimated to be 9.5% for all herd types; 20.6% for dairy herds; and 7.6% for beef herds. If ELISA positive animals <2-years-of-age are excluded, the true herd prevalene reduces to: 9.3% for all herd types; 19.6% for dairy herds; and 6.3% for beef herds based on a test specificity (Sp) of 99.8% and test sensitivity (Se) (i.e., ability to detect culture-positive, infected animals shedding at any level) of 27.8-28.9%.     

Management and herd performance of dairy herds with and without chronic wasting disease

'Chronic wasting' in cattle acquired a special meaning in the Netherlands in 1999. It was used to define animal health problems that were thought to be associated with the use of bovine herpesvirus 1 marker vaccine. Criteria have not been set by which an objectively independent inventory of the problems could be made. The objective of this study was to determine management factors associated with the problem of 'chronic wasting' prior to the use of the BHV1 marker vaccine. Knowledge about these factors could be helpful for generating additional hypotheses about the aetiology of chronic wasting in cattle. A total of 188 farms participated in the study, of which 94 had severe problems with chronic wasting. The other half consisted of control farms matched with the case farms that did not report problems after the use of the BHV1 marker vaccine. Data analyses were performed over the period before (and not at the time of) 'chronic wasting' problems. Data were collected from various sources. A questionnaire was used to collect information on farm management practice. In addition, information on laboratory submissions for 1996 to 1998, animal movements in 1998, roughage analyses of 1997 and 1998, expenses for animal health in 1998, and herd performance in 1995 to 1999 was collected. In the analyses, a distinction was made between information obtained objectively and subjectively. Herds with problems of 'chronic wasting' were larger than herds without wasting problems (animals, surface) but not more intensively managed. 'Wasting' herds had a lower performance in terms of fertility and udder health. In addition, these herds had more contact with other herds through the purchase of animals. There were no differences in farm management practices related to disease control and prevention. Additional studies are required with regard to the patho-physiology of chronic wasting cows. The role of herd size needs more study.     

Not all cows are epidemiologically equal: quantifying the risks of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) transmission through cattle movements

Many economically important cattle diseases spread between herds through livestock movements. Traditionally, most transmission models have assumed that all purchased cattle carry the same risk of generating outbreaks in the destination herd. Using data on bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Scotland as a case example, this study provides empirical and theoretical evidence that the risk of disease transmission varies substantially based on the animal and herd demographic characteristics at the time of purchase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that purchasing pregnant heifers and open cows sold with a calf at foot were associated with an increased risk of beef herds being seropositive for BVDV. Based on the results from a dynamic within-herd simulation model, these findings may be partly explained by the age-related probability of animals being persistently infected with BVDV as well as the herd demographic structure at the time of animal introductions. There was also evidence that an epidemiologically important network statistic, “betweenness centrality” (a measure frequently associated with the potential for herds to acquire and transmit disease), was significantly higher for herds that supplied these particular types of replacement beef cattle. The trends for dairy herds were not as clear, although there was some evidence that open heifers and open lactating cows were associated with an increased risk of BVDV. Overall, these findings have important implications for developing simulation models that more accurately reflect the industry-level transmission dynamics of infectious cattle diseases.     

Estimating herd prevalence of bovine brucellosis in 46 USA states using slaughter surveillance

Making valid inferences about herd prevalence from data collected at slaughter is difficult because the observed sample is dependent on the number of animals sampled from each herd, which varies with herd size and culling practices, and the probability of a positive test result, which depends on variable within-herd prevalence levels as well as test sensitivity and specificity. In this study, brucellosis herd prevalence among beef cow-calf operations is estimated from slaughter surveillance data using a method that combines process modeling with Bayesian inference. Inferences are made for two populations; the first population comprises cow-calf beef herds in a typical U.S. state. The second population represents all beef herds in a collection of 46 low-risk states. The Bayesian Monte Carlo method used in this study links process model inputs to observed surveillance results via Bayes Theorem. The surveillance evidence across multiple years is accumulated at a discounted rate based on the probability of introducing new infection into an area. The process model's inputs include herd size, culling rate per herd, within-herd prevalence, serologic test performance, and the probability of successfully investigating positive results. The surveillance results comprise the number of cows and bulls tested at slaughter and the number of affected herds detected each year. The results find at least 95% confidence that brucellosis herd prevalence among beef cow-calf herds is less than 0.014% (3 per 21,500 herds) and 0.00081% (5 per 6,15,770) after 5 years of slaughter surveillance (with no detections of affected herds) in a typical U.S. state and across 46 low-risk U.S. states, respectively. These results were based on conservative modeling assumptions, but sensitivity analysis suggests only slight changes in the results from changing the assumed process model input values. The most influential analytic input was the probability of introducing new infection into a putatively brucellosis-free state or group of states.     

A stochastic-modeling evaluation of the foot-and-mouth-disease survey conducted after the outbreak in Miyazaki, Japan in 2000

When foot-and-mouth-disease (FMD) was identified in Miyazaki prefecture in March 2000, Japan conducted an intensive serological and clinical survey in the areas surrounding the index herd. As a result of the survey during the 21 days of the movement-restriction period, two infected herds were detected and destroyed; there were no other cases in the months that followed. To evaluate the survey used for screening the disease-control area and surveillance area, we estimated the herd-level sensitivity of the survey (HSe) through a spreadsheet model using Monte-Carlo methods. The Reed-Frost model was incorporated to simulate the spread of FMD within an infected herd. In the simulations, 4, 8 and 12 effective-contact scenarios during the 5-day period were examined. The estimated HSes of serological tests (HSeE) were 71.0, 75.3 and 76.3% under the 4, 8 and 12 contact scenarios, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the number of contacts beyond 12 did not improve HSeE, but increasing the number of sampled animals and delaying the dates of sampling did raise HSeEs. Small herd size in the outbreak area (>80% of herds have <20 animals) seems to have helped in maintaining HSeE relatively high, although the serological inspection was carried out before sero-positive animals had a chance to increase in infected herds. The estimated herd-level specificity of serological tests (HSpE) was 98.6%. This HSpE predicted 224 false-positive herds (5th percentile estimate was 200 and 95th percentile was 249), which proved close to the 232 false-positive herds actually observed. The combined-test herd-level sensitivity (serological and clinical inspections combined; CTHSe), averaged 85.5, 87.6 and 88.1% for the 4, 8 and 12 contact scenarios, respectively. Using these CTHSes, the calculated probability that no infected herd was overlooked by the survey was > or =62.5% under the most-conservative, four-contact scenario. The probability that no more than one infected herd was overlooked was > or =89.7%.     

Use of herd information for predicting Salmonella status in pig herds

Salmonella surveillance-and-control programs in pigs are highly resource demanding, so alternative cost-effective approaches are desirable. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a tool for predicting the Salmonella test status in pig herds based on herd information collected from 108 industrial farrow-to-finish pig herds in Portugal. A questionnaire including known risk factors for Salmonella was used. A factor analysis model was developed to identify relevant factors that were then tested for association with Salmonella status. Three factors were identified and labelled: general biosecurity (factor 1), herd size (factor 2) and sanitary gap implementation (factor 3). Based on the loadings in factor 1 and factor 3, herds were classified according to their biosecurity practices. In total, 59% of the herds had a good level of biosecurity (interpreted as a loading below zero in factor 1) and 37% of the farms had good biosecurity and implemented sanitary gap (loading below zero in factor 1 and loading above zero in factor 3). This implied that they, among other things, implemented preventive measures for visitors and workers entering the herd, controlled biological vectors, had hygiene procedures in place, water quality assessment, and sanitary gap in the fattening and growing sections. In total, 50 herds were tested for Salmonella. Logistic regression analysis showed that factor 1 was significantly associated with Salmonella test status (P = 0.04). Herds with poor biosecurity had a higher probability of testing Salmonella positive compared with herds with good biosecurity. This study shows the potential for using herd information to classify herds according to their Salmonella status in the absence of good testing options. The method might be used as a potentially cost-effective tool for future development of risk-based approaches to surveillance, targeting interventions to high-risk herds or differentiating sampling strategies in herds with different levels of infection.     

Shorter-term risk of Mycobacterium bovis in Irish cattle following an inconclusive diagnosis to the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test

In Ireland, new cases of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) are detected using both field and abattoir surveillance (More and Good, 2006). Field surveillance is conducted through annual testing of all cattle using the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT). An animal may be deemed a 'standard inconclusive reactor' (SIR) to the SICTT if the bovine response is >2mm and between 1 and 4mm>the avian response. The herdowner then has three choices for the management of the SIR: option 1 is to have the animal retested after a minimum period of 42 days (an inconclusive reactor retest, IRR), option 2 is to slaughter the SIR and, provided the animal has no visible lesions, have a full herd test 42 days after the SIR leaves the herd, option 3 is to slaughter the SIR and have the lymph nodes examined using histology and/or culture for bTB. In the current study, we examine the bTB risk for SIRs both at slaughter prior to the IRR and at the IRR, and the future bTB risk of TIR animals (so-called 'transient SIRs'; SIR animals with a negative SICTT result at the subsequent IRR) that moved from the herd of disclosure within 6 months of the IRR. We also investigate factors associated with the future bTB status of SIRs at slaughter prior to the IRR and at the IRR. The study population included all SIRs identified in Ireland between 2005 and 2009 inclusive in a herd otherwise Officially TB free (OTF). Between 11.8% and 21.4% of SIRs slaughtered prior to the IRR were confirmed bTB positive at post mortem (using histology or culture if histology was not definitive), compared to 0.13-0.22% of SICTT -ve cohort animals. The post mortem bTB lesion rate of SIRs is lower than the lesion rate reported for reactor animals between 2005 and 2009 of between 34% and 39%, reflecting the doubtful infection status of these animals. Between 20.3% and 27.9% of herds were restricted at the IRR. The herd restriction rate amongst the national herd between 2005 and 2009 varied from 5.09% to 6.02%. TIRs that moved out of the disclosing herd within 6 months of the IRR were 12 times more likely to be bTB positive at the next test/slaughter compared to all animals in the national herd. The same increased risk did not apply to the SICTT -ve cohort animals that moved out of the same herds at the same time. Based on a range of measures, SIRs and TIRs are each at increased bTB risk into the future. Consequently, differential treatment of TIR animals would be justified.     

Risk factors associated with Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis seropositivity in Canadian dairy cows and herds

Our objective was to determine the risk factors associated with the seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) in a large number of randomly selected Canadian dairy herds, controlling for important confounding variables and co-infections with bovine leukemia virus (BLV), bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and Neospora caninum (NC). Serum samples from 30 randomly selected cows, where available, in 315 herds from seven provinces were tested for antibodies against BLV, MAP and NC using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) test kits, while five unvaccinated cattle >6 months old from each herd were tested for antibodies to BVDV. We used a zero-inflated negative-binomial (ZINB) multivariable model to determine simultaneously the risk factors associated with the count of MAP-seropositive cows in a herd, and the odds of herds having no MAP-seropositive cows as compared to having one or more MAP seropositive cows in a herd. The following factors were significantly positively associated with the count of MAP-seropositive cows: "more than one cow in the maternity pen", "group-housing for pre-weaned calves in winter", "open heifers purchased during the last 12 months", "beef cattle direct (nose-to-nose) contact", "BVDV-seropositive herds (> or = 1 animal with > or = 1:64 titer)" and "BVD vaccination not done properly in calves" (i.e. after 6 months old, animals were not boostered 2-4 weeks after their first killed vaccine, or not given modified live vaccine), with count ratios of 1.7, 2.0, 2.3, 1.9, 1.4 and 1.8, respectively. The variable "BVDV vaccination (modified live) done properly in calves" (i.e. received another modified live vaccination after 6 months as well) was associated with 0.4 times fewer MAP-seropositive cows.