A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree was developed to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios based on livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic susceptible–infectious–recovered approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring-vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring-vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and export losses. Ring-vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.     

Consideration of different outbreak conditions in the evaluation of preventive culling and emergency vaccination to control foot and mouth disease epidemics

In recent foot and mouth disease outbreaks, many healthy animals have been culled to prevent disease transmission. Emergency vaccination is discussed as an alternative to culling of unaffected animals. A spatial and temporal Monte–Carlo simulation model was used to compare preventive culling and emergency vaccination. Different outbreaks are described using additional influence factors such as airborne spread, farm density, type of index-case farm and delay until establishment of the control strategies. The fewest farms were infected establishing a combined strategy including a 1 km preventive culling and 1–10 km emergency vaccination zone around each outbreak farm. Taking the number of culled and vaccinated farms into account, vaccination around the first diagnosed farm combined with the baseline strategy (culling of outbreak farms, protection and surveillance zone, contact tracing) is to be preferred. In the present study, emergency vaccination was an effective control strategy especially in densely populated regions.     

Control of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina

A major epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease affected Argentina during 2001. The epidemic was controlled by mass-vaccination of the national herd and movement restrictions. The median herd disease reproduction ratio (R_H) decreased significantly from 2.4 (before the epidemic was officially recognized) to 1.2 during the mass-vaccination campaign and <1 following the mass-vaccination campaign. The largest distance between two outbreaks was similar during (1905 km) and after (1890 km) the mass-vaccination. However, after mass-vaccination was completed, the proportion of herd outbreaks clustered decreased from 70.4% to 66.8%, respectively. Although a combination of vaccination and livestock-movement restrictions was effective in controlling the epidemic, 112 herd outbreaks occurred up to 6 months after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign. Mass-vaccination and movement restrictions might be an effective strategy to control FMD; however, the time taken to end large, national epidemics might be >1 year.     

Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan

The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.     

Serological response to a booster foot-and-mouth disease vaccination with strains different from the primary vaccine

Young calves were vaccinated with Belgian foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccine and revaccinated with either the same vaccine or with a foreign FMD vaccine.There was a significant serological response to the primary vaccine strains after the first vaccination which was greater following revaccination. At one and two months after revaccination there was no significant difference between the responses to revaccination with vaccine identical to the primary vaccine or with the foreign FMD vaccine.It was concluded that revaccination of young calves is effective even with an FMD vaccine different from the primary vaccine.     

Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.     

Experimental evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines for emergency use in ruminants and pigs: a review

Changes to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control policies since 2001 mean that emergency vaccination must be considered more readily as a control measure in the future. Since field application of vaccine for emergency use has only rarely been applied, the effectiveness of single dose administration, as a control measure in an outbreak situation, is poorly understood. In this review we consider all the available experimental data from studies utilizing either experimental or readily available, commercially produced vaccines, in order to assess their likely effectiveness as an additional means of controlling FMD transmission and spread in an emergency. Overall it is concluded that such vaccines offer an additional and valuable means of FMD control for both ruminants and pigs. They are able to reduce clinical disease, sub-clinical infection and excretion and onward transmission of virus. However, to be most effective, vaccination should be rapidly applied to give maximum opportunity for immunity to develop. We also identify areas for future research and emphasize the importance of vaccine efficacy studies in providing data for models that can help to predict the efficacy of differing FMD control strategies.     

Association of the time that elapsed from last vaccination with protective effectiveness against foot-and-mouth disease in small ruminants

Routine and emergency vaccination of small ruminants against foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is mandatory in many endemic countries, yet data on the field effectiveness of the vaccines used is scarce. We conducted an investigation of a serotype O FMD outbreak that took place in a sheep and goat pen, and estimated the effectiveness of various routine vaccination statuses. We also evaluated the protection provided by colostrum administration and emergency vaccination. Animals which were routinely vaccinated twice were not clinically affected while disease incidence was observed among animals routinely vaccinated only once (p = 0.004 according to a two-sided Fisher''s exact test). In groups vaccinated only once, there was a significant association between the average time that elapsed since last vaccination and the disease incidence (n = 5; Spearman correlation coefficient: r_s = 1.0, p < 0.01). In addition, non-vaccinated lambs fed colostrum from dams vaccinated more than 2 months before parturition had a mortality rate of 33%. Administration of emergency vaccination 2 days after the occurrence of the index case was the probable reason for the rapid blocking of the FMD spread within 6 days from its onset in the pen.     

The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

A model of epidemic dispersal (based on the assumption that susceptible cattle were homogeneously mixed over space, or non-spatial model) was compared to a partially spatially explicit and discrete model (the spatial model), which was composed of differential equations and used geo-coded data (Euclidean distances between county centroids). While the spatial model accounted for intra- and inter-county epidemic spread, the non-spatial model did not assess regional differences. A geo-coded dataset that resembled conditions favouring homogeneous mixing assumptions (based on the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic), was used for testing. Significant differences between models were observed in the average transmission rate between farms, both before and after a control policy (animal movement ban) was imposed. They also differed in terms of daily number of infected farms: the non-spatial model revealed a single epidemic peak (at, approximately, 25 epidemic days); while the spatial model revealed two epidemic peaks (at, approximately, 12 and 28 days, respectively). While the spatial model fitted well with the observed cumulative number of infected farms, the non-spatial model did not (P<0.01). In addition, the spatial model: (a) indicated an early intra-county reproductive number R of approximately 87 (falling to <1 within 25 days), and an inter-county R<1; (b) predicted that, if animal movement restrictions had begun 3 days before/after the estimated initiation of such policy, cases would have decreased/increased by 23 or 26%, respectively. Spatial factors (such as inter-farm distance and coverage of vaccination campaigns, absent in non-spatial models) may explain why partially explicit spatial models describe epidemic spread more accurately than non-spatial models even at early epidemic phases. Integration of geo-coded data into mathematical models is recommended.     

Disease at the wildlife-livestock interface: Acaricide use on domestic cattle does not prevent transmission of a tick-borne pathogen with multiple hosts

Several prominent and economically important diseases of livestock in East Africa are caused by multi-host pathogens that also infect wildlife species, but management strategies are generally livestock focused and models of these diseases tend to ignore the role of wildlife. We investigate the dynamics of a multi-host tick-borne disease in order to assess the efficacy of tick control from an ecological perspective. We examined the efficacy of a widespread measure of tick control and developed a model to explore how changes in the population of ticks due to control measures on cattle impact dynamics of Theileria parva infection in a system with two primary host species, cattle and Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer). We show that the frequency of acaricide application has a significant impact on the tick population both on the host and in the environment, which can greatly reduce the pathogen load in cattle. We also demonstrate that reducing the tick population through cattle-related control measures is not sufficient to diminish disease transmission in buffalo. Our results suggest that under current control strategies, which target ticks on cattle only, T. parva is likely to remain a significant problem in East Africa, and require the continued use of acaricides, which has significant economic and ecological consequences.     

Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.     

Effectiveness of movement-prevention regulations to reduce the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in The Netherlands

After the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in 2001 the Dutch government implemented movement-prevention regulations to reduce the number of contacts between farms and consequently the risk of spread of highly contagious animal infections in the future. We studied the efficacy of these regulations by comparing registered cattle-movement data from 2000 to those from 2002. We also used the spatial and stochastic simulation model InterFMD to evaluate the consequences of the observed alterations in cattle-contact structure on the spread and control of a FMD epidemic.

There was a significant decrease in the number of cattle movements “for live use”, no difference in the number of group movements “for live use” and a distinct change in the overall contact structure. The most important structure changes were a decrease in the number of group movements from dairy farms to cattle-collection centres (−44%), and an increase in the number of group movements from dairy farms to beef farms (111%).

Our simulations demonstrated that the implemented regulations result in a concentration of the FMD-affected area and therefore in a reduction in size of the epidemics. Based on the intended Dutch strategy to control future FMD outbreaks, the decrease in extreme epidemics (95th percentiles) went from 31 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 65 days to 8 infected farms in an epidemic-length of 53 days in sparsely populated areas. In densely populated areas this decrease went from 135 infected farms to 103, while the duration reduced from 88 days to 81.     

Herd demographics correlated with the spatial distribution of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Buenos Aires province, Argentina

During a recent foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Argentina, cattle herds affected in 2001 were located mainly (69%) in Buenos Aires province. The densities of outbreaks (no. of outbreaks per km²) and cattle-demographic variables in the province were estimated using a geographical information system and kernel function. Before the epidemic officially was recognized, the density of outbreaks was correlated (r_sp = 0.28–0.47) with the geographic distribution of small (≤100 cattle), dairy and fattening herds. During the mass-vaccination campaign to control the epidemic (April–July), the density of outbreaks was most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.20–0.25) with the distribution of large (>500 cattle) and breeding herds. After the end of the mass-vaccination campaign, large herds and number of cows were most strongly correlated (r_sp = 0.16–0.26) with outbreak density. These relationships might indicate that: (1) the disease spread more rapidly or was more easily detected in intensive production systems at the beginning of the epidemic; (2) vaccination and other control methods applied were less effective in large, semi-intensive production systems; (3) incomplete vaccine protection was responsible for herd outbreaks that occurred after the end of the mass-vaccination campaign.     

A survey to investigate movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand,with reference to the potential transmission of foot-and-mouth disease

AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread.

METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively ‘busy’ and ‘quiet’ times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors.

RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0–1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4–1,203 km).

CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.     

Evaluation of cross-protection against three topotypes of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus in pigs vaccinated with multi-epitope protein vaccine incorporated with poly(I:C)

Epitope-based vaccines are always questioned for their cross-protection against the antigenically variable foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). In this study, we proved the cross-protection effect of a multi-epitope vaccine incorporated with poly(I:C) against three topotypes of O type FMDV. A total of 45 naïve pigs were vaccinated with different doses of multi-epitope protein vaccine incorporated with poly(I:C). At 28 days post-vaccination, 45 vaccinated and 6 unvaccinated control pigs (two pigs for each group) were challenged with three topotypes of virulent O type FMDV, namely, O/Mya/98 (Southeast Asia topotype), O/HN/CHA/93 (Cathay topotype) and O/Tibet/CHA/99 (PanAsia topotype) strains. All unvaccinated pigs developed generalised FMD clinical signs. Results showed that all pigs (n = 15) conferred complete protection against the O/Mya/98 and O/HN/CHA/93 FMDV strains, 11 of which were protected against the O/Tibet/CHA/99 FMDV strain. The 50% protective dose values of the vaccine against the O/Mya/98, O/HN/CHA/93 and O/Tibet/CHA/99 FMDV strains were 15.59, 15.59 and 7.05, respectively. Contact challenge experiment showed that transmission occurred from the donors to the unvaccinated but not to vaccinated pigs. These results showed that vaccination with multi-epitope protein vaccine incorporated with poly(I:C) can efficiently prevent FMD in pigs.     

The role of spatial factors in the success of an Aujeszky's disease eradication programme in a high pig density area (Northeast Spain, 2003–2007)

We tested the role of several spatial variables on the risk of a sow herd being Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) seropositive in certain areas of North Eastern Spain and during different periods of the eradication programme. Distance to the nearest slaughterhouse, distance to the nearest conventional road and number of ADV serologically positive sows and ADV serologically positive fattening pigs within different distances (1000, 1500 and 2000 m) of each sow herd, were included in a hierarchical Bayesian binomial model. A variable without spatial characteristics, type of herd (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish), was also included. Presence of positive fattening pigs or positive sows up to a distance of 1500 m of a sow herd increased its risk of being seropositive, although this variable had no effect on the risk when located at distances up to 1000 or 2000 m. The number of seropositive sows increased the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive only in the first period of study, when the proportion of serologically positive sow herds was nearly 60%. The spatial pattern of the residuals of the hierarchical Bayesian binomial model (observed versus predicted) was very similar to the observed infection in sow herds in all of the eradication periods, showing that spatial factors might not be the main factors related to the eradication of Aujeszky's disease from sow herds. Other herd-specific risk factors might be much more strongly related to the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive.     

Emergence of a novel subgroup within the widely circulating lineage of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in India

The complete VP1 encoding (1D) gene of 54 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus serotype Asia1 field isolates, most of which were isolated during 2000 and 2001, was sequenced. The phylogenetic analysis identified a novel subgroup (>10% nucleotide divergence) within the widely circulating lineage of this serotype. The newly emerged viruses were responsible for disease outbreaks in both cattle and buffaloes and were present in six different states in the country. Amino acid sequence comparison of these isolates revealed significant sequence divergence at many of the amino acid positions in comparison to those of lineage VI-A and C. Emergence of such viruses may affect the efficacy of vaccine strain currently used for protection against FMD in India.     

Immunosuppression and histopathological changes in the bursa of fabricius associated with infectious bursal disease vaccination in chicken

The effect of the infectious bursal disease (IBD) live virus vaccine on the immune response of chicken was evaluated by the assessment of antibody response following vaccination as well as resistance to challenge with virulent virus. Birds were vaccinated at various ages and later challenged with a heterologous vaccine (NDV) or wild-type IBD virus. The BF was examined for histological changes at regular intervals. Antibody levels to NDV were monitored.

Significantly higher mortality rates were observed in birds vaccinated with IBD vaccine than unvaccinated birds (P < 0.01) following challenge, BF from vaccinated birds showed marked lymphocyte depletion and cellular infiltration with mononuclear cells.

Intraocular NDV (NDV-i/o) vaccine given at day old largely prevented the immunodepressive effect of IBD vaccination on NDV vaccine. Groups that received IBD vaccine on day 14 but no NDV i/o suffered higher mortality (41.2%) and showed lower antibody response than those vaccinated on day 1 (0%) or controls which did not receive IBDV (11.8%).     

Studies on the role of humoral and cell-mediated immunity in pigs after vaccination with Aujeszky's disease virus

Humoral and cellular immunity in pigs vaccinated twice with Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) was studied by seroneutralizing test and direct leucocyte migration inhibition technique. Significant migration inhibition of leucocytes (LMI) was found on the fifth day, whereas specific antibodies began to appear at that time only in very low titers. Anamnestic reaction due to the second injection of ADV did not bring about a significant increase of migration inhibition of leucocytes, instead the level of antibodies elevated markedly.     

The duration of the foot-and-mouth disease virus carrier state in African buffalo (i) in the individual animal and (ii) in a free-living herd

The maintenance of a virus depends on a number of factors, including the duration of infectivity and the size of the available host population. In this work, foot-and-mouth disease virus was shown to persist in individual African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) for up to at least five years; thus, the duration of infectivity is more than adequate to cover the normal periods between calving peaks. In a small isolated free-living population which varied from 30 to 100 buffalo, two immunological types of foot-and-mouth disease virus were maintained for at least 24 years and through several generations.