Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe.A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information on the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence of warning and decision support systems with relevance for adaptation to climate change.The results show that farmers across Europe are currently adapting to climate change, in particular in terms of changing timing of cultivation and selecting other crop species and cultivars. The responses in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries.The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in the Mediterranean countries, and this is largely linked with the possibilities for effective adaptation to maintain current yields. The most negative effects were found for the continental climate in the Pannonian zone, which includes Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. This region will suffer from increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However, considering all effects of climate change and possibilties for adaptation, impacts are still mostly negative in wide regions across Europe.     

DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展

为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。     

Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.     

Focus on the application of crop science and biotechnology to climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Climate change is an apparent phenomenon affecting life in many aspects including crop production, so the assessment of its impact on crop production is urgently required to establish strategies and technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Numerous efforts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change with emphases on elevated temperature and CO₂ on crops, to assess climate change impact on crop production, and to develop application technologies for coping with climate change in a sustainable manner. This special issue of JCSB contains a collection of peer-reviewed research articles covering the impact of microclimate conditions on crop production (4 papers), modeling approaches for impact assessment (3 papers), and applications of crop science and biotechnology for climate change adaptation (3 papers). It is believed that this special issue will help crop scientists broaden their knowledge and understanding on climate change issues in crop production and facilitate research in crop science and biotechnology in battling against climate change to sustain current crop production and increase future crop production to feed ever continuously increasing human population.     

中国农田减缓气候变化的潜力与技术途径

以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化是当前人类面临的主要环境问题之一,并且对农业生产和粮食安全产生了重大影响。增强作物对气候变化的响应与适应能力,提升农田系统固碳减排潜力,是中国农业生产上亟待解决的重要问题。笔者简要分析了国内农业固碳现状,总结了农业生产上应对气候变化的相关技术体系。通过分析国内农业生产适应和减缓气候变化的潜力和技术途径,对未来增加农业固碳潜力的研究做出了展望,为气候变化背景下实现中国农业的可持续发展提供了新的参考和借鉴。     

气候变化对中国农业的影响研究进展

（1湖北三峡职业技术学院,宜昌 443000;2中国农科院农业环境与可持续发展所,北京 100081）     

陇东黄土高原地区热量资源分布演变分析及对农业生产的影响

为了研究陇东黄土高原地区热量资源的变化,提高为农气象服务的科学性和有效性,笔者对庆阳市具有代表性的环县、庆城和西峰的1960—2013 年的气温资料的变化特征进行分析。结果表明：庆阳在近54 年以来,年平均气温在波动中呈上升趋势,但各具特点;农耕期增加,作物种植界限北移且多样化;热量资源均有增加,中部川道地区最为丰富;终霜日结束趋势偏早,作物遭受冻害的次数减少。各地应根据气候变化,适当调整和优化农业产业结构,增加设施农业、特色农业及秋作物的种植比例和技术投入,同时,科学有效的预防由于热量资源增加而引发的自然灾害,实现农业生产的可持续发展。     

Climate change impact on corn suitability in Isabela province,Philippines

Climate change is expected to affect agricultural crop production in the Philippines. Several studies were already done to quantify the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production in the country. Most of these studies focus only on the effect of climate change on crop yield. This study estimated the effect of climate change on the area (suitable area) for corn production. Using the Land Use Suitability Evaluation Tool (LUSET), change in corn suitability in the province of Isabela was estimated for the years 2050, 2060, and 2070. Based on the results, climate change will negatively impact corn suitability in the province. Decreasing trend in corn suitability rating was observed due to increasing temperature resulting to loss of highly suitable areas for corn production. For example, during the first cropping season the estimated average decreases in suitability scores due to an increase in temperature were 6.7, 11.4, and 20.7% in the years 2050, 2060, and 2070, respectively. These decreases in suitability resulted in the loss of 6,777 ha highly suitable areas for corn production.     

Developments in breeding cereals for organic agriculture

The need for increased sustainability of performance in cereal varieties, particularly in organic agriculture (OA), is limited by the lack of varieties adapted to organic conditions. Here, the needs for breeding are reviewed in the context of three major marketing types, global, regional, local, in European OA. Currently, the effort is determined, partly, by the outcomes from trials that compare varieties under OA and CA (conventional agriculture) conditions. The differences are sufficiently large and important to warrant an increase in appropriate breeding. The wide range of environments within OA and between years, underlines the need to try to select for specific adaptation in target environments. The difficulty of doing so can be helped by decentralised breeding with farmer participation and the use of crops buffered by variety mixtures or populations. Varieties for OA need efficient nutrient uptake and use and weed competition. These and other characters need to be considered in relation to the OA cropping system over the whole rotation. Positive interactions are needed, such as early crop vigour for nutrient uptake, weed competition and disease resistance. Incorporation of all characteristics into the crop can be helped by diversification within the crop, allowing complementation and compensation among plants. Although the problems of breeding cereals for organic farming systems are large, there is encouraging progress. This lies in applications of ecology to organic crop production, innovations in plant sciences, and the realisation that such progress is central to both OA and CA, because of climate change and the increasing costs of fossil fuels.     

Drought Tolerance and Water Use of Cereal Crops: A Focus on Sorghum as a Food Security Crop in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) faces twin challenges of water stress and food insecurity – challenges that are already pressing and are projected to grow. Sub‐Saharan Africa comprises 43 % arid and semi‐arid area, which is projected to increase due to climate change. Small‐scale, rainfed agriculture is the main livelihood source in arid and semi‐arid areas of SSA. Because rainfed agriculture constitutes more than 95 % of agricultural land use, water scarcity is a major limitation to production. Crop production, specifically staple cereal crop production, will have to adapt to water scarcity and improved water productivity (output per water input) to meet food requirements. We propose inclusion and promotion of drought‐tolerant cereal crops in arid and semi‐arid agro‐ecological zones of SSA where water scarcity is a major limitation to cereal production. Sorghum uniquely fits production in such regions, due to high and stable water‐use efficiency, drought and heat tolerance, high germplasm variability, comparative nutritional value and existing food value chain in SSA. However, sorghum is socio‐economically and geographically underutilized in parts of SSA. Sorghum inclusion and/or promotion in arid and semi‐arid areas of SSA, especially among subsistence farmers, will improve water productivity and food security.     

气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响

气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响已得到高度关注,并形成了诸多研究成果,但影响的评估结果存在一定的争议。笔者对21世纪以来百篇国内外相关高质量文献进行整合梳理,总结讨论了气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。研究表明：（1）1961年以来气候变化主要通过影响作物生长发育、引起种植结构改变、导致农业病虫害和气象灾害加剧的方式影响了中国的粮食生产,影响结果正负共存,总体上呈负效应,且气温升高的负效应最为显著。（2）气候变化对粮食生产的影响存在地域差异,在东北、西北绿洲等高纬度地区,气温升高改善了区域热量条件,粮食产量有增加趋势;在华北平原、南方稻区、西南地区和西北旱作区,气温升高缩短了作物生育期,加上降水变化,导致区域的粮食产量下降。（3）不考虑CO₂肥效作用,未来气候变化很可能造成粮食产量下降,且小麦的减产幅度可能高于水稻和玉米;考虑CO₂肥效作用,负面影响将会减弱,并可能对东北地区的水稻和华北平原的小麦产生正面影响。     

湖南农业气候资源对全球气候变化的响应分析

为了揭示全球气候变化背景下湖南农业气候资源的变化特征,利用湖南省97个台站1960-2010年逐日气象观测资料,在进行均一性检验和订正的基础上,分析湖南省农业气候资源时间、空间变化趋势及其差异。结果表明：湖南气温与全球气温变化趋势一致,呈现以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,相对应的热量资源也呈现为显著增多的变化趋势,以活动积温对气候变暖响应最敏感;湖南降水量无显著趋势变化,但在不同季节、不同地区的变化趋势差异较大,冬季湘北地区呈显著增多趋势,春季湘西地区呈显著减少趋势,夏季湘中地区呈显著增多趋势,秋季湘西南地区呈显著减少趋势;日照时数呈现以夏季显著减少为主要特征的变化趋势,减少幅度最大的地区位于湘江中下游地区。气候变化导致湖南省农业气候资源发生变化,进而影响到农业生产布局和结构,需合理利用气候资源,提高农业适应气候变化的能力。     

唐山地区近48年农业气候资源变化特征分析

以全球变暖为主线的气候变化已被世界公认。气候变化会影响到农业气候资源的变化,从而影响农业生产的格局,作物品种布局、粮食产量等。为此,利用唐山地区11个气象观测站1961~2008年日平均气温和逐日降水资料,运用最小二乘法进行线性倾向估计,分析唐山地区主要农业气候资源时间、空间变化趋势及其差异,为政府部门指导农业生产,发展设施农业和名优农产品开发、引进、农业气候资源利用论证提供决策依据。结果表明：唐山地区热量均呈增加趋势,西南部热量增加趋势明显,东北部热量增加较缓;≥0 ℃活动积温、≥10 ℃活动积温的变化与年平均气温的变化密切相关;年降水量表现为减少趋势,且年际间变化较大。     

作物对大气CO2浓度升高生理响应研究进展

The increase of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO₂]) has substantially had a huge impact on agricultural production. As the sole substrate for photosynthesis, the increase of atmospheric [CO₂] stimulates the net photosynthetic rate, thus promoting the biomass accumulation and yield level in many crops. However, the ‘fertilization’ effect of the elevated atmospheric [CO₂] on crop production is less than theoretical expectation, and elevated [CO₂] increases the health risk due to the decline in grain quality. The relevant mechanism is still unclear. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of elevated [CO₂] on crop photosynthesis system, reviewed various responses of key photosynthesis indicators, such as the leaf net photosynthetic rate, the intercellular [CO₂] of leaves, maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (V_{c, max}), and the capacity of Rubp-regeneration (J_max) in different crops, in response to the elevated atmospheric [CO₂]. Based on the C-N metabolism of the whole plant, we summarized two prevailing hypotheses about the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity under elevated atmospheric [CO₂], namely the source-sink regulation mechanism and N limitation mechanism, respectively. We summarized the influence of elevated [CO₂] on the nutritional quality of the grain, such as the change in the protein, oil, mineral elements, and vitamin concentrations. Furthermore, we also reviewed the potential interactive effect of the elevated atmospheric temperature and [CO₂] on crop growth. Finally, the main research directions of this field in the future are proposed. In summary, this review can provide theoretical reference for accurately assessing the changes in crop yield and quality under climate change conditions, maximizing the ‘fertilization’ effect of elevated [CO₂], and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on crop production.     

Energy crops: Prospects in the context of sustainable agriculture

The objectives of this review are to analyse the potential of bioenergy crops development in European agriculture and to identify research objectives based on transformation technologies. Bioenergy is the chemical energy stored in organic material, which can be directly converted into useful energy sources by biological, mechanical or thermochemical processes. The substitution of food crops with energy crops and the demand for agricultural raw materials for liquid biofuel production will affect agriculture over the next decade and possibly beyond. It is expected that both second-generation biofuel production technology and energy crops used will be more efficient than first-generation. Nonetheless, there are still technical limitations for crop growth and fuel production from second-generation technology. In general, many of the crops that could supply the raw materials for second-generation biofuels are largely undomesticated and are in the first stages of development and management. The development of specific crops dedicated to energy has been proposed as a strategy to produce energy without affecting food security and the environment. The research seeks to develop enzymatic systems for the cost-efficient decomposition of cellulose into its molecular sugar components, which can then be fermented to produce ethanol. This biorefinery of crops into multiple products, including energy, chemical products and materials, will augment the overall value of the biomass. Clearly, multidisciplinary research is necessary to address sustainable biofuel production.     

气候变化对中国东北地区生态与环境的影响

【研究目的】综述了气候变化对东北地区的影响,以期在区域发展中能利用气候变化的有利方面,降低其不利的影响;【方法】根据近年来发表的相关论文,文章综述了东北地区已经发生的气候变化影响及未来可能受到的影响;【结果】结果表明,过去100年东北地区的温度升高明显且降水普遍减少,干旱化趋势严峻。温度的升高改善了东北的热量资源,部分农业生产从中受益。但由于气候变化,目前特殊的生态系统如湿地,冻土退化或消失。未来的气候变化,会改变农业生产布局,降低主要作物的产量,生态系统结构发生改变,农牧带沙漠化的风险增加;【结论】东北地区必须客观认识气候变化的利弊影响,采取相应的适应和应对措施,促进区域发展。     

Prospects for ecological intensification of Australian agriculture

World population growth, changing diets and limited opportunities to expand agricultural lands will drive agricultural intensification in the decades ahead. Concerns about the reliance of past agricultural intensification on non-renewable resources, about its negative impacts on natural resources both on and off farm and on greenhouse gas emissions, provide an imperative for future agricultural intensification to become ecologically efficient. We define ecological intensification of agriculture (EIA) as: producing more food per unit resource use while minimising the impact of food production on the environment. Achieving it will require increased precision in the use of inputs and reduction in inefficiencies and losses. It will also require a more holistic view of farming, going beyond efficiencies of single inputs into a single field in a single season to consideration of efficiencies of whole systems over decades. This paper explores the ecological intensification issues facing agricultural production in Australia where opportunities for agricultural intensification are centred on more efficient use of limited and unreliable water resources in both dryland and irrigated agriculture. Ecological efficiencies can be achieved by better matching the supply of nutrients to crops’ requirements both temporally and spatially. This has the added benefit of minimising the opportunities for excessive nutrients to impact on soil health (acidity and dryland salinity) and water quality (pollution of groundwater and eutrophication of lakes and rivers). Opportunities for ecologically efficient intensification are also identified through better integration of crop and livestock enterprises on mixed crop–livestock farms. We define nine desirable attributes of an EIA system: (1) increased agricultural production; (2) efficient use of limited resources; (3) minimal impact on global warming; (4) minimal negative on-site impacts; (5) minimal negative off-site impacts; (6) minimal risk and maximum resilience; (7) preservation of biodiversity in agriculture; (8) preservation of biodiversity in nature and; (9) positive social outcomes. We focus on four technologies and production systems emerging in Australian agriculture: climate risk management; precision agriculture; crop–livestock integration and deficit irrigation. For each of these systems we identify how well they are likely to match the nine desirable attributes of an EIA system. While it seems unlikely that any single technology can satisfy all nine desirable attributes, there is hope that in combination emerging and future technologies will progress Australian agriculture towards greater productivity and ecological efficiency.     

Performance of Agricultural Systems under Contrasting Growing Season Conditions in South-western Quebec

Climate change will alter temperature and rainfall patterns over North American agricultural regions and there will be a need to adapt crop production systems to the altered conditions. A set of field experiments were conducted in south-western Quebec, Canada, with soybean ( Glycine max L.), corn ( Zea mays L.), sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L.) × sudangrass ( Sorghum sudanense Piper) hybrid and switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) under two tillage and three nitrogen fertility regimes, to study their performance in three successive growing seasons (2001–2003), two of them with unusually warm and dry conditions. The annual crops were established in two tillage systems: conventional and no-till (NT). All crops except soybean were fertilized with three levels of nitrogen: corn – 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha⁻¹, sorghum-sudangrass – 0, 75 and 150 kg N ha⁻¹, switchgrass – 0, 30 and 60 kg N ha⁻¹. The 2001 and 2002 seasons were hotter and drier than the 2003 season, which was the most favourable for crop growth. The capacity of the crops to yield in dry seasons was as follow: switchgrass > sorghum-sudangrass > corn > soybean. The corn and sorghum-sudangrass responses to nitrogen fertilizer were low in 2001 due to the combined effect of dry growing season and coarse soil texture. Soybean did not perform well under NT. Corn yielded better at the highest nitrogen fertilizer rate under NT when the early season was warmer than the normal. Our results show that switchgrass and sorghum-sudangrass could be an option in south-western Quebec if the frequency of hot and dry seasons increase in the future, because of climate change.     

覆盖作物及其作用的研究进展

在农作物种植系统中,田间杂草、土壤因素对作物的生长发育、产量和品质的影响一直都是农业领域关注的热点。大量使用化肥和除草剂可以达到作物增产、除草的目的,但其对土壤和环境造成的负面影响,严重制约了农业生产的可持续发展。种植覆盖作物是一种实现农业可持续发展的新策略,可以达到控制杂草、减少氮肥施用、改善土壤质量等目的。本文主要从覆盖作物的起源与发展过程、主要种类和作用及其种植制度等方面,总结了目前覆盖作物的研究进展及其在作物种植中的应用,以期为覆盖作物在我国农业生产中的研究与应用提供理论基础。     

Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China

The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China.