Prediction and driving factors of forest fire occurrence in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are natural disasters that can occur suddenly and can be very damaging, burning thousands of square kilometers. Prevention is better than suppression and prediction models of forest fire occurrence have developed from the logistic regression model, the geographical weighted logistic regression model, the Lasso regression model, the random forest model, and the support vector machine model based on historical forest fire data from 2000to 2019 in Jilin Province. The models, along with...     

江西省森林火险综合区划

依据森林燃烧环理论,在充分考虑指标代表性、不可替代性以及数据可得性的基础上,根据江西省林火发生特点,选取气候、植被、地形等11个因子作为江西省森林火险精细化综合区划指标,并按照各区划因子对林火发生或蔓延的影响赋予不同的权重,将全省划分为Ⅰ级(低火险)、Ⅱ级(中火险)、Ⅲ级(高火险)3个不同等级的森林火险区.分区结果与该区气候、植被、地形分布等相符,说明区划结果具有较好的科学性和实用性,可为江西省森林火灾的预防、扑救和重点防护与管理等提供科学依据.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire frequency and forest area burnt in Jilin Province,Northeast China

Forest fires caused by natural forces or human activities are one of the major natural risks in Northeast China. The incidence and spatial distribution of these fires vary over time and across the forested areas in Jilin Province, Northeast China. In this study, the incidence and distribution of 6519 forest fires from 1969 to 2013 in the province were investigated. The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of the burnt forest area and the fire frequency varied significantly by month, year, and region. Fire occurrence displayed notable temporal patterns in the years after forest fire prevention measures were strictly implemented by the provincial government. Generally, forest fires in Jilin occurred in months when stubble and straw were burned and human activities were intense during traditional Chinese festivals. Baishan city, Jilin city, and Yanbian were defined as fire-prone regions for their high fire frequency. Yanbian had the highest frequency, and the fires tended to be large with the highest burned area per fire. Yanbian should thus be listed as the key target area by the fire management agency in Jilin Province for better fire prevention.     

吉林省主要森林火灾火源的时间变化特征

以吉林省1969-2017年森林火灾资料为依据,利用Excel绘制折线图,对吉林省6种主要森林火灾火源的时间变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:吉林省6种主要火源引起的森林火灾都具有明显的季节性特点,即主要发生在春秋两季,但是针对野外生活用火火源在2月也要注意防范;祭祀用火火源引起的森林火灾主要发生在4月的白天;纵火火源和野外生活用火火源引起的森林火灾在白天发生频繁,但是在夜晚人们防范意识薄弱期间也有发生;境外烧入火源引起的森林火灾有明显的“滞后”性,主要发生在下午和晚上。针对农事用火和野外吸烟,要在春秋两季进行全天候重点防范。     

Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991-2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.     

Nonparametric multivariate analysis of variance for affecting factors on the extent of forest fire damage in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are influenced by several factors,including forest location, species type, age and density,date of fire occurrence, temperatures, and wind speeds,among others. This study investigates the quantitative effects of these factors on the degree of forest fire disaster using nonparametric statistical methods to provide a theoretical basis and data support for forest fire management.Data on forest fire damage from 1969 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicate that different forest locations and types, fire occurrence dates, temperatures, and wind speeds were statistically significant. The eastern regions of the study area experienced the highest fire occurrence,accounting for 85.0% of the total number of fires as well as the largest average forested area burned. April, May, and October had more frequent fires than other months,accounting for 78.9%, while September had the most extensive forested area burned(63.08 ha) and burnt area(106.34 ha). Hardwood mixed forest and oak forest had more frequent fires, accounting for 31.9% and 26.0%,respectively. Hardwood-conifer mixed forest had the most forested area burned(50.18 ha) and burnt area(65.09 ha).Temperatures, wind speeds, and their interaction had significant impacts on forested area burned and area burnt.     

基于RS和GIS的云南省森林火险预报研究

基于遥感、GIS技术,选取不同植被易燃等级、植被干燥度、森林气象火险预报等级作为森林火险预报因子,采用因子加权叠置法,计算得到云南省森林火险预报指数,划分为没有危险、低度危险、中度危险、高度危险和极度危险5个等级。研究结果表明,较之传统的森林火险气象预报,该预报模型能够更为准确地预测林火发生的可能性,更好地满足森林防火业务的需求。     

林业投资来源与投资方向研究

通过对林业投资来源与投资方向的分析,对林业投资方面存在的问题提出相关对策及建议。     

中国吉林森林生态网络现状与展望

本文概要介绍了吉林省生态环境概况、林业建设成就与问题,论述了本省森林生态网络建设面临的任务及亟待解决的八个方面的问题,并对生物技术、信息技术、新材料技术及无公害森林保健技术在森林生态网络建设的应用前景进行了展望。参9。     

经营森林理念及其在吉林省的应用研究

本文提出了经营森林理念,并阐述了在市场经济条件下经营森林的内涵及与传统的森林经营的区别;分析、总结了经营森林理念在吉林省实施“三大区域战略”,即东部“大森林”、中部“大粮仓”、西部“大草原”的应用实践与经验;吉林林业走的是生态建设产业化、产业发展生态化的道路,探索出了生态与经济协调发展、经济与生态双重产出的符合吉林省林情的发展模式。     

大理州森林火险天气预报方法

选用2001～2010年大理州的森林火灾次数与对应的气象数据进行统计分析,分析结果表明日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前15日累计降水量对大理州森林火灾有较好的指示性,其中日平均相对湿度对大理州森林火险天气等级指示性最强。根据实际应用需要选用日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前9日的降水数据建立模型计算森林火险天气等级。利用2011年大理州森林火灾数据对模型的模拟效果进行检验,检验效果很好,说明运用此模型进行大理州森林火险天气预报是可行的。     

云南松林区的林火与火险等级分区初探

云南松林区发生的森林火灾是多种自然因素和人为活动综合作用的结果。通过对四川省云南松分布区不同区域与林火有关的主要气候因子分析及综合值的比较,结合地形地貌、植被状况和人为活动等多种因素,将我省云南松分布区划分成5个不同等级的火险区,并提出了相应的护林防火对策。     

关于中国吉林省林业建设的思考

This paper reviews various forestry practices in Jilin Province, China. The authors emphasize the rich natural diversity of Jilin and the need to focus research efforts on understanding the potential of native species to meet the needs of land-management agencies involved in forest resource exploitation and ecological restoration. The native species of China hold great potential, and deserve more research attention, for meeting these needs. The introduction and testing of exotic species should be dbne only under rigorous scientific testing and after comparison with native species prior to operational introduction into forestry in order to avoid unwanted ecological consequences, including potential problems with alien invasives and pest introductions. The authors also emphasize the need to maintain viable （e.g., genetically diverse and reproductively fit） natural populations of native species in order to protect China＇s valuable natural diversity and maintain the potential of native species to function as future seed sources for local forest and ecological restoration activities.     

吉林省森林防火体系发展模式的研究

本文立足于吉林省的实际,以有效控制重大森林火灾发生和大力提高应变能力为体系建设战略目标,采用关键要素评价矩阵法评析森林防火体系现状、筛选主导子系统,研究提出了吉林省森林防火体系建设战略发展模式总体构架和分区系统模式,并以原始林区为例,对不同区域系统配置要点进行探讨,为森林防火建设提供参考依据。     

汪清县森林有害生物调查与分析

汪清县林业局于2004年开展了最新一次的森林有害生物调查,结果表明,全县共有森林有害生物325种,其中：病害16种、害虫286种、害鼠5种、有害植物18种。调查发现光肩星天牛已传入汪清县境内并有所扩散,成为林木的重大潜在有害生物。对兴安落叶松鞘蛾、落叶松枯梢病等主要有害生物的种类和发生规律进行了分析,提出了防治对策。     

吉林市森林火灾损失的价值评估及森林防火工作的展望

本文通过对吉林市连续２０年森林火灾损失的价值评估测算,从中可以看出,由于２０年来的有效保护,未发生重、特大森林火灾,给吉林市旅游、环保业及农牧业等方面都带来了具大的、潜在的社会效益、生态效益。     

敦化林区森林土壤调查

本文对敦化林区范围内的土壤情况进行了调查，确定了林区的土壤类型，提出了今后林业经营的方向。     

辽东半岛地区主要火险林型及燃烧性的研究

文章通过外业调查确定了辽东半岛地区的主要5种火险林型,分别为油松人工纯林、日本黑松人工纯林、栎树天然纯林、杂木天然林、刺槐人工纯林。阔叶树林型下的灌木层、草本层的种类和盖度均明显大于针叶树,针叶树的凋落物层盖度大于阔叶树。主要林型下地被可燃物的载量分布较高,变化范围为6.47～12.08t/hm2;地被可燃物燃烧性能是针叶树明显大于阔叶树,其综合燃烧性由大及小的排序:日本黑松人工纯林>油松人工纯林>天然栎树林>刺槐人工纯林>天然杂木林。     

吉林省辉南森林经营局基层林场转为公益型林场的测算探讨

深化重点国有林区和国有林场苗圃管理体制改革是当前林业战线的重要任务之一。本文根据本局森林资源现状的研究分析,提出了将基层林场转为公益型林场,并对林场的规模、人员设置及生态效益进行了科学测算。