Application of the Forecasting Model of Exponential Smoothing to the Forecast of the Coal Wastage in Chongqing

The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is a valid method in forecasting and decision-making.Based on the practical datas and according to the characteristic(linearity trend) of the fact coal wastage in Chongqing(recently),the forecasting model of twice exponential smoothing model is set up and the model is applied to forecast the caol wastage in Chongqing.The forecast results show that the errors between the forecast values and the fact values error little and the model may be well applied on the forecast of the coal wastage in Chongqing.It also shows that the decision-making can based on the result well.     

An Analysis on the Altitude of Industrial Structure of Chongqing

To supply an even more amplitude background for the analysis on the quality of the structure of Chongqing, this paper analyzed the altitudes of employment structure and production value structure among three industry structures in Chongqing, then an static and dynamic comparison with other countries of DIFFERENT levels on the basis of grasping Chongqing's status in Western Area. An structural explanation of ChongQing's economy development stage aiming at giving an even more amplitude background to analyze the essence of its industrial structure.     

Potential Homebuyer''s Preference in Chongqing

Manufactured Affordable Housing (MAH) is recommended to address the mismatch between demand and supply in the housing market in Chongqing, which is the fourth metropolis in China and has huge housing demand due to a gigantic population of 30.6 million. A model for massive housing production needs to be developed in order to determine the potential homebuyers' preferences. A questionnaire is designed as a tool to retrieve the factors, which affect the potential home buyers' behaviour, the necessary information about their perception for the housing market, their preferences for housing, and to describe the adoption of suitable housing under the main topic of "MAH in Chongqing". This paper aims to highlight the factors that affect the purchase of housing and the preference of the potential homebuyers in Chongqing. The overall research objectives are to use the concept of MAH to examine the feasibility and viability for its use in Chongqing, and to design a suitable type of MAH for use in Chongqing, by maximizing the use of indigenous resources from the region as one of the major considerations. At this stage, investigation has been carried out to identify the basic characteristics of the construction industry in Chongqing to set the scene for the housing research. This paper is mainly to identify the potential homebuyer's preference and their demand for home purchase in Chongqing.     

重庆市农业气象服务调查研究

为了拉近现代气象业务与现代农业发展需求之间的距离,切实为提高农业综合生产能力、抗风险能力、市场竞争能力提供优质气象服务,利用2012年获取的重庆市38个区县农业气象服务需求调查数据,分析了重庆市农业气象服务现状及需求。调查对象涵盖了重庆农村的不同区域、不同阶层,共回收有效问卷共2198份。调查结果表明：大多调查者都能得到气象灾害预警信息,83.3%的被调查者对现有农业气象服务信息的准确率表示认可,目前重庆“三农”气象服务整体情况较好;农村地区关注气象的主要目的是提前做好突发天气的防御和安排农业生产;电视和手机短信为获取农业气象信息和气象预警信息的主要途径;大多数被调查者希望气象预报准确率更高,气象灾害预报预警能够更加及时,能够从更多的渠道获得气象信息;种养殖大户对更加精细和有针对性的气象服务需求旺盛。     

Utilizing Industry Solid Wastes as Resource of Building Material in Chongqing

To embed or heap industry solid wastes somewhere will occupy the earth and pollute the environment seriously. So utilizing the industry solid wastes as regeneration resource is important for sustainable development of city. Based on application and research for years in utilizing industry wastes and widely investigation, the produce status of industry solid wastes in Chongqing such as fly ash, desulfuration gypsum, blastfurnace slag and chromium slag are introduced. At the same time,this paper introduces application and research on these wastes in field of building material in Chongqing. Analyze problems and countermeasures during utilizing industry solid wastes as regeneration resource in Chongqing. As a further the prospect of utilizing industry solid wastes as regeneration resource of building material is discussed.     

Feasibility for Building the Under-ground Sewage Treatment Plant in Chongqing City

With the development of the economy, the demand forhabitation is enhanced and the sewage and industrial waster water must be disposed before outlet. Today, most of the sewage treatment plants are built on the aboveground without discussing the underground. Therefore, by the comparative analysis of the property and cost of the underground sewage treatment plant and the ground, the underground sewage treatment plant have merits in save the city land and improvement environment.The Chongqing citypossess a lot of advantages in using the space of underground with the analysis of the physiognomy and geology condition of the Chongqing city. Therefore, the development of underground sewage treatment plant is feasible in the Chongqing city.     

成渝经济区现代农业发展差异与空间集聚

为了明确成渝经济区内现代农业发展水平及差异,采用主成分分析方法对各县现代农业发展水平进行综合评价,并采用Moran指数全局和局部指标分析了邻接区域农业发展水平的空间关联性和集聚特性。结果发现县域现代农业发展水平差异较大,呈现成都市和重庆市区两核心区域发展水平高、中间地带和外围区域发展水平低的凹型发展模式。地理上邻接区域具有的正的空间关联性,并主要定位了高高集聚类型和低低集聚类型区域,有利于更精确地找准弱弱集聚的关键突破点,培育农业产业集群,发挥辐射作用带动区域发展。     

Approaches to Night View Lighting Project of Mountainous Cities

In this paper, taking the night view lighting project of the center of the Chongqing city as an example, which is in the visual field of Yikeshu landscape stage in Nanshan of Chongqing, an approach to the lkghting project is suggested. It takes the landscape feature of mountainous city with abundant stereo perception and hierarchy into account and meets the demand of multi-level,multi-orientation and distant sightseeing. This approach is characterized by point,line,plane and body planning, vertical kierarchy, horizontal area division with emphasis on problem of light and color treatment.     

Analysis on an Assessing Index System of Chongqing''s Green Investment Environment

Based on an integrative research on the investing environment of the 40 districts in Chonqing, this paper applies Factor and Cluster Analysis Method to analyze Chongqing's investment environment in a quantitative way. Besides an illustration of the characteristics of Chongqing's Green Investment Environment, the main purpose of this paper is to provide evidence to improve Chongqing's investment environment and reference to theoretical study of investment environment.     

Study on Road Greening in the Main Urban Area of Chongqing City Based on Plant Diversity

The greening situation of 242 road greenbelts in 7 administrative regions in the main urban city of Chongqing City was investigated by field survey, and the plant composition, application frequency, species richness and diversity of plants used for road greening in the main urban area were analyzed. The results show that there were 105 species of plants used for road greening(not including seasonal flowers displayed temporarily) in the main urban area of Chongqing City, belonging to 80 genera, 47 families. Among them, there were 95 species of woody plants and 10 species of perennial herbs, accounting for 90.47% and 9.53% of the total number respectively. Some suggestions were put forward according to the current situation and problems of road greening in the main urban area of Chongqing City.     

An Analysis on Specialization and Synthesis Development of ChongQing''s Industrial Structure

Through an analysis on specialization and synthesis development of Chongqing's three-D industrial structure and 13 major sectors, dominant specialization sectors and their status and functions, the relationships among dominant specialization sectors and non - specialization ones are given in this paper. This would be helpful for Chongqing to establish rational industrial policies, to upgrade its industrial structure level.     

对渭河流域区产业结构调整与农民增收的思考与建议

渭河流域是陕西和甘肃两省经济核心区，如何结合当地资源运用市场经济杠杆确定区内主导产业，做好产业结构调整，实现农民增收与经济可持续发展是目前面临的主要问题，笔者根据近十年工作实践，就上述问题提出建议。     

2-D water quality numerical simulation of the river by using stream tube-FVM

The contamination transplant-diffuse mechanism in shallow river is analysed. FVM is applied to the stream tubes, according to mass conservation principle and established the 2-D finite volume model in the contamination concentration field (CCF). This method is applied to simulate water quality of some section of Yangtze River and Jialing River around Chongqing city, which is simple and effective.     

上海市水产品消费需求的双对数模型分析

为了研究上海市水产品消费需求的影响因素以及不同因素贡献度的大小,以上海市1999—2010年城市居民家庭人均水产品消费量、城市化水平、水产品价格指数、替代品价格指数、居民消费价格指数、居民家庭人均可支配收入等相关数据作为研究对象,采用Eviews软件对上海市水产品消费需求进行回归分析。建立了包括城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民消费价格指数、总人口数这些影响因素在内的上海市水产品消费需求模型。另外,通过建立关于城市居民家庭人均可支配收入、居民价格指数、总人口数的模型,对这些影响因素进行预测,从而可以对上海市水产品消费进行预测。最终认为,要增加上海市水产品的消费需求,必须从提高家庭人均可支配收入、控制居民消费价格指数、发展水产品深加工业、加强物流体系建设以及加强水产品市场质量管理等方面入手,推动上海水产业持续稳定的发展。     

An Evidential Analysis on the Rural Urbanization Development in Chongqing

The rural urbanization process in Chongqing is much slower than that in other metropolitans and most of the provinces in eastern China, which can't adapt to its important function as the economic and cultural center in southwestern China.It is urgent for Chongqing to accelerate the rural urbanization for improving its whole urbanization level and speeding up its economy development to catch up with other metropolitans and some advanced provinces.Compared with the urbanization in other metropolitans and some provinces, the authors demonstrated the rural urbanization situation and its characteristics in Chongqing in details, analyzed the reasons for the poor urbanization and its influences on the social-economic development especially that in the rural area.Inferior position of Chongqing's small towns in the market competition with those from other provinces is one of the results of its poor urbanization development.At last, the authors suggested a few practical countermeasures to improve the rural urbanization in order to get a rapid and sustainable rural development and to increase the whole economic effects of the metropolitan.     

analysis and application of demand forecasting model with multi element variable parameters

A forecasting model for logistics demand was presented to overcome the limitations of single goal forecasts of logistics demand and forecast data complexity. Based on the forecasting evaluation index and pretreatment of rough set theory, a multi input and multi output wavelet network (MMWNN) model for forecasting multi element regional logistics demand was studied. The network configuration was confirmed using the stepwise checkout and iterative gradient descent methods. After rough set reduction, the evaluation index was used to forecast the multi element regional logistics demand. The results of the numerical example indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.     

Urban Environmental and Urban Ecological Problems in the Sustainable Development of Chongqing City and Its Countermeasures

The main urban environmental and urban ecological problems existing in the sustainable development of Chongqing city were introduced in this paper. Furthermore, the causes and features of these problems were analyzed. At last, some countermeasures, which would provide some scientific bases for accelerating the urban sustainable development of Chongqing city, were suggested.     

Population Prediction for New Town Planning of Beijing Municipality --A Case Study of Changping New Town

Based on the function orientation of the new towns in General Planning for Beijing Municipality(2004-2020) and the condition of future economic growth and labor force demand,this paper makes a population prediction of Changping using edge-glide algorithm.It is pointed out that the population amount will decline under natural population growth,from 515 thousand in 2000 to 489 thousand in 2020.Along with the population and industry transfer from center of the municipality to outer district,the new town will have strong impact on function remission of the central city area and the population will increase rapidly in Changping.It is predicted that there will be increase of 520-630 thousand in Changping from 2000 to 2020.So it's important to take measures to meet the requirement of population growth and alleviate the function of city zone.     

Alternative Labor Market Closures in a Regional Model

Five versions of a regional economic forecasting and simulation model are implemented to evaluate the forecasting accuracy and significance for impact analysis of alternative regional labor market closures. The five versions correspond to the following specifications: downward-sloped labor demand and upward-sloped labor supply, vertical labor demand and upward-sloped labor supply, an input-output version, and two general equilibrium configurations of labor demand and supply. It is found that the estimated impacts of an exogenous employment stimulus differ greatly across the model versions. Also, post-sample forecasts for 1981-1988 are run for the fifty states plus Washington D.C. with each model version to test their relative forecast accuracy. The forecast comparison shows that the general equilibrium version that specifies inelastic supply is inferior to the other versions for short-term forecasts of wage rates and long-term employment forecasts. For both short- and long-run population forecasts, the versions with completely immobile labor are more accurate than those with completely mobile labor. However, versions that specify an upward-sloped labor supply (partial labor supply adjustment) are the most accurate.     

THE FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS USE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ZONES

The model for forecasting the development of the Science and Technology Development Zones(STDZ) and the High Technology Industry Developrhedt Zones (HTIDZ) is created with the help, of the forecasting theory and technology in system engineering, A scheme for handling the dynamic variables in the model is proposed. The development targets of the Chongqing Shapingba Science and Technology Development Zone in the coming six years are forecasted .by using the model. The model can be used widely to forecast the development of STDZ and HTIDZ and other similar social and economical systems.