Influence of coloured noise on the extinction risk in structured population models

We use simple models to compare extinction risk among basic life history types when environmental noise is either uncorrelated (“white”) or positively autocorrelated (“red”). The metric of extinction is probability of extinction in 50 years; variability of noise is scaled such that its expected variance is independent of colour at this time scale. We compare annual, semelparous biennial, iteroparous biennial and perennial life histories. Given an identical equilibrium population size and basic reproductive number, annual life history confers much higher extinction risk than semelparous biennial life history. Iteroparous biennial and perennial life histories have even lower extinction risks. Autocorrelated noise influences the life histories differently: the extinction risk of the annuals decreases with reddening noise, whereas the other life histories show an opposite response. We show that in a previously developed stage-structured population model for the Florida scrub jay Aphelocoma coerulescens ignoring the possibility of red environmental noise might result in much too optimistic assessment on population viability. In conclusion, simplifications of population structure and ignoring red environmental noise in population viability analyses can result in serious biases.     

Assessing the susceptibility of female black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes) to longline fisheries during their post-breeding dispersal: an integrated approach

Albatross movements and foraging grounds during the post-breeding dispersal are poorly understood, despite their important conservation implications. We tracked four female black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) for 100 days during their summer (July-September, 1997-1999) post-breeding dispersal off California, and compared their movements to the distribution of fishing effort from the Japanese Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) longline fishery. The tracked birds foraged largely along the transition zone between the California Current and the Central Pacific Gyre, and spent 25, 24, and 51% of their time at sea within the 200-mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the USA and Mexico, and the high seas (international waters) respectively. The satellite-tracked birds occupied subtropical waters (18-20 °C) targeted by longline fisheries for tuna (Thunnus spp.) and broad-bill swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and ranged disproportionately farther during daylight hours, when tuna fisheries operate. The available data suggest that albatrosses overlap temporally and spatially with longline fisheries in the northeast Pacific Ocean. However, this research cannot directly evaluate whether black-footed albatross bycatch occurs in these fisheries. The coarse temporal (monthly) and spatial (1°×1°) resolution of the fisheries data, and the dynamic nature of the fishing effort inhibited a fine-scale analysis of albatross overlap with longline fisheries. While we documented substantial spatial overlap between albatross distributions and the Japanese EPO longline fishing effort during the 1980s, we found no co-occurrence during the 1990s. This study illustrates the value of satellite telemetry to assess national conservation responsibilities, and to identify potential interactions of protected species with fisheries not currently monitored by observer programs. Furthermore, our results underscore the need to exercise caution when interpreting satellite telemetry data for conservation purposes, because of the highly dynamic nature of pelagic fisheries.     

Understanding the decline and extinction of monarchs (Aves) in Polynesian Islands

Understanding the decline and extinction of species has become critical to conservation biology. The five monarch species of the genus Pomarea, endemic to the southeastern Pacific, are all listed as threatened. Introduced mammals and birds are believed to be responsible for their rarefaction. We analyzed the historical and current distribution of monarchs and introduced animals and found no relation between presence of Polynesian rats (Rattus exculans) and monarch distribution. There was a highly significant correlation between the arrival of the black rat (Rattus rattus) and the decline and extinction of monarch populations. The extinction of monarch populations after colonization by black rats tended to take longer on larger islands than on smaller ones. On islands without black rats, monarchs persisted even where forests have been reduced by more than 75%. After an island was colonized by black rats the number of monarch pairs with young decreased dramatically. Eggs in artificial nests placed in sites used by monarchs were only preyed upon by black rats. No eggs were preyed upon by Polynesian rats (Rattus exulans) or introduced birds. Monarch nests were mainly placed on horizontal branches inside the canopy and were more accessible than nests of Polynesian warbler (Acrocephalus caffer), a species still locally abundant. Warbler nests were placed higher up on vertical branches near the top of trees. These studies suggest that nest predation by black rats has been the main cause of monarch decline. However observations of direct aggression of adult monarchs by introduced red-vented bulbuls (Pycnonotus cafer), especially when monarchs raise their young, suggest that introduced birds could aggravate the decline of monarch populations already weakened by black rats. We discuss the practical implications of these findings for monarch conservation.     

Modelling demography and extinction risk in the endangered Balearic shearwater

Several demographic parameters of Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) were estimated and used to model extinction probabilities for the species, which is an endemic seabird confined to a Mediterranean archipelago. Adult survival was analyzed through capture-recapture models at two colonies free of adult predators during 1997-2002. Extinction probabilities for the world breeding population were modelled using Monte Carlo simulations of population trajectories, introducing stochasticity both demographic and environmental. Adult survival estimate (0.780, SE=0.020, 95% Confidence Intervals: 0.739-0.816) was unusually low for a Procellariiform, suggesting that sources of mortality other than predators (e.g. fishing gears) also occur. A deterministic model showed a declining trend for the world breeding population (λ=0.952), and significantly less than 1. Population viability analysis showed that in the presence of environmental and demographic stochasticities, mean extinction time for the world population was estimated at 40.4 years (SE=0.2), and mean growth rate showed a 7.4% decrease per year. Demographic stochasticity played a more important role than environmental stochasticity in population growth rate.     

Demography and conservation of the Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena

The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.     

Assessing the impact of fisheries, climate and disease on the dynamics of the Indian yellow-nosed Albatross

Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species.     

Linking colonies to fisheries: Spatio-temporal overlap between common murres (Uria aalge) from Tatoosh Island and coastal gillnet fisheries in the Pacific Northwest, USA

The population-level impact of seabird bycatch is difficult to assess because colony-of-origin is often unknown. As an alternative and complementary approach to ship-derived observations, we assessed the relative potential for bycatch of a known seabird population by quantifying spatio-temporal overlap with local fisheries. Common murres (Uria aalge) have been reported as the most abundant seabird inadvertently caught in Washington and British Columbia coastal gillnet fisheries. In 1999-2001, we tracked 48 common murres from Tatoosh Island, the closest colony to the fisheries, during post-breeding. Using capture-mark-recapture models, we estimated weekly murre movement probabilities to/from three strata (offshore of, centered around, and inshore of Tatoosh Island). Based on movement probabilities and population size, we projected strata- and week-specific murre abundance. We created an index of overlap by calculating the product of murre abundance × gillnet fishing effort as a function of strata and time. The majority of murres (80%) moved inshore, where fishing effort was consistently the highest, suggesting that up to 4000 Tatoosh murres were vulnerable to bycatch. Index scores in the inshore stratum were 5-25 times higher relative to the offshore and Tatoosh strata, respectively. Overlap was sensitive to phenology, as index scores increased by 50% when dispersal was shifted four weeks earlier, while a two weeks delay decreased scores by 20%. Until the long-term impact of cumulative mortality in gillnet fisheries is determined, we believe a precautionary approach is warranted in the inshore stratum where the potential for bycatch was highest. We advocate the use of visible netting in inshore fisheries, a proven solution that reduces murre bycatch while maintaining fishing efficiency.     

Two-sex population projection of the endemic and dioecious rainforest shrub, Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)

Gardenia actinocarpa (Rubiaceae)—an endemic and dioecious shrub-small tree of the lowland rainforest of Cape Tribulation, NE Australia—is evaluated for its long-term population persistence using five-year demographic data from three permanent plots of the species. Two-sex, size-specific Lefkovitch matrices were constructed to evaluate the species’ vital rates and extinction thresholds. One site indicated a sign of significant population growth (annual λ=1.056), while the remaining two gave λs close to unity (λ=1.0102 and 1.007). Overall, λ was greater than 1 (λ=1.0281) indicating that G. actinocarpa will increase in population size with time, though male plants were projected to grow faster in number than female plants. Elasticity analyses indicated that the largest size class (>22 cm diameter) made the greatest contribution to population growth (28%), especially the male plants (23%). Also λ was equally sensitive to survival/stasis (45%) and growth (44%) and least sensitive to fecundity (11%). Stochastic simulations gave 0.505 probability of quasi-extinction to 10% of its initial size in 100 years of population growth projection- suggesting that the endemic G. actinocarpa, despite a positive rate of population increase, is indeed threatened. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations showed that to maintain population persistence of G. actinocarpa, efforts should concentrate, following cost-benefit analyses, on increasing seed production coupled with enhancing establishment of individuals in the seedling, juvenile and vegetative phases.     

Linking spatial metrics and fish catch reveals the importance of coastal wetland connectivity to inshore fisheries in Queensland, Australia

Many commercially important fish species use coastal marine environments such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds. The ecological importance of spatially connected habitats to conservation is well established for terrestrial environments. However, few studies have applied spatial metrics, including measures of structural connectivity to marine environments. We examined the relationship between catch-per-unit-effort for commercially caught species and the spatial patterning of mapped benthic habitat types along the coast of Queensland, Australia in their dominant fisheries (trawl, line, net or pot fisheries). We quantified the composition and spatial configuration of seascapes and calculated coastline length, number of estuaries, river length and geographical latitude using 12 metrics within ninety 30-nautical-mile grid cells, which supported inshore fish catch data from 21 species groups. Multiple regression analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling plots indicated that ecological linkages may exist between geomorphic coastal features and nearshore fisheries production for a number of species groups. Connectivity indices for mangroves, salt marsh and channels explained the largest proportion (30–70%), suggesting the importance of connected tidal wetlands for fisheries. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) catch-per-unit-effort was best explained by the number of wetland patches, mangrove connectivity and wetland connectivity (r² = 0.38, n = 28). Catch-per-unit-effort for the Gulf of Carpentaria was highly correlated with wetland connectivity, the number of estuaries and seagrass patch density (r = 0.57, n = 29). The findings could guide the spatial design of marine protected area networks to maintain ecosystem services and avoid potential disruption to connectivity caused by habitat removal or modification. Application of the same approach to analyses of finer spatial scales would enable catch information to be related to particular estuarine habitats and provide better understanding of the importance of habitat connectivity for fisheries.     

Seed germination and conservation of endangered species from the Italian Alps: Physoplexis comosa and Primula glaucescens

Physoplexis comosa and Primula glaucescens, endemic to calcareous grasslands of the Lombardy Prealps, northern Italy, are protected under Annex IV of European Community Directive 92/43/EEC. Seed germination dynamics of these species were studied with the aim of producing appropriate germination protocols for use in ex situ conservation. Seeds were collected from Monte Barro (922 m a.s.l.) and for Primula glaucescens from three additional sites in a more central part of its range (1217-2521 m a.s.l.). Physoplexis comosa germinated only in sterile in vitro conditions, in which germination percentages were extremely low without a supply of gibberellic acid (GA3; 1.7%); the optimum GA3 concentration was 100 mg l⁻¹ (> 90% germination), with lower germination at higher doses of 250-500 mg l⁻¹. Primula glaucescens germinated in both sterile and non-sterile conditions and, although total germination was not affected by GA3 concentration, doses of 10-500 mg l⁻¹ acted equally to prompt earlier and more rapid germination. Primula glaucescens from Monte Barro was characterised by slower and poorer germination than from central sites.     

Assessing the broad-scale impact of agriculturally transformed and protected area landscapes on avian taxonomic and functional richness

Anthropogenic modification of natural habitat is resulting in a widespread loss of biodiversity. One of the primary responses of human societies to biodiversity loss has been the creation of protected areas. Two of the most important questions in conservation biology are: (1) whether protected areas are playing their intended role as reservoirs of biodiversity; and (2) whether habitat outside protected areas, particularly in agricultural landscapes, plays a significant role in maintaining biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides. Even though empirical evidence is still lacking on the exact mapping from functional group richness to specific ecosystem services, functional groups are good indicators of ecosystem functioning and thus service provision. We classified the South African avifauna into nine functional groups and tested at a coarse grain for differences in functional group composition between landscapes containing predominantly agricultural vs. protected areas. We used a matched pair sampling design to control for confounding variance. We found that avian functional groups respond in quantitatively and qualitatively distinct ways to agriculturally dominated landscapes. Raptors and scavengers displayed the most consistent losses, while nutrient dispersers and grazers tended to increase. Spatial detrending and randomisation tests suggested that only raptors and scavengers are negatively affected by agricultural landscapes independently of spatial autocorrelation. Thus, protected area landscapes are serving as important reservoirs of functionally important upper trophic populations while agricultural landscapes facilitate the presence of species that link aquatic and terrestrial systems. These results demonstrate the potential for complementary facets of functional diversity to exist on landscapes containing vastly different land-uses.     

A global assessment of the impact of fisheries-related mortality on shy and white-capped albatrosses: Conservation implications

Hundreds of thousands of seabirds are killed each year as a result of interacting with longline and trawl fishing operations, and the severity of the impact varies regionally. Shy and white-capped albatrosses, Thalassarche cauta and Thalassarche steadi respectively, are phenotypically similar species known to be incidentally killed by fishing operations. The magnitude of this mortality has not previously been assessed across their range. Here we examine recent effort and bycatch rates in fisheries known to incidentally kill these species and qualitatively evaluate the level of impact of each fishery. Results indicate that over 8500 of these albatrosses may be killed annually, although the reliability of this estimate is low due to the paucity of comprehensive observer data in most fisheries. Of the estimated deaths of all seabird species in the fisheries assessed, trawl and longline fisheries killed birds in approximately equal proportions, but when the mortality levels of shy-type albatrosses were examined, trawl fisheries were responsible for 75% of all deaths. Data suggest most of these birds were killed in South African, Namibian and New Zealand demersal trawl fisheries and the South Africa pelagic longline fishery. Because most adult shy albatrosses are comparatively sedentary and rarely found outside Australian waters, it is primarily juvenile shy albatrosses that regularly encounter fishing fleets known to kill large numbers of albatrosses. In contrast, throughout most of their range juvenile and adult white-capped albatrosses are exposed to fisheries that collectively kill many thousands of these albatrosses each year. These data emphasise the urgent need for robust assessments of the impact of bycatch at a species and population level, and the urgent implementation of effective mitigation measures.     

融合注意力机制与BERT+BiLSTM+CRF模型的渔业标准定量指标识别

在渔业标准文本中,定量指标识别对标准内容服务具有重要的意义,针对目前常用的命名实体识别方法对渔业标准定量指标识别准确率不高的问题,该研究提出了融合注意力机制与BERT+BiLSTM+CRF(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers+Bi-direct...     

The potential impact of projected change in farming by 2015 on the importance of the agricultural sector as a sediment source in England and Wales

In association with a major initiative aimed at identifying policy packages for inclusion in the Programmes of Measures (POM's) comprising EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) River Basin Management Plans (RBMP's), recent work has evaluated the gap between current and compliant suspended sediment losses due to farming across England and Wales. The work required national scale sediment source apportionment to assess the current contributions of diffuse agricultural and urban sector losses, channel bank erosion and point source discharges to the total suspended sediment loads delivered to all rivers. Results suggested that the agricultural sector dominates present day (year 2000) sediment inputs to rivers (1929 kt = 76%) compared to eroding channel banks (394 kt = 15%), diffuse urban sources (147 kt = 6%) and point source discharges (76 kt = 3%). Projected change in farming by 2015, represented by the Business as Usual forecast of structural developments and predicted uptake of sediment mitigation methods, suggested an overall 9% reduction in sediment loss from the agricultural sector across England and Wales. The projected reduction is unlikely to deliver sediment compliance in all catchments. Key limitations of the integrated modelling approach are discussed.