Air force takes aim at a big bird

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable to destruction in a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union. The Air Force has worried about this situation for a long time, searching high and low for a better place to put both the existing silo-based missiles and a new missile, the MX. The first article in this series examined the reasons that U.S. officials became alarmed about missile vulberability, and the second examined the short-term plan to put missiles into silos. This article explores the Ait Force's least favourite long-term basing mode. Subsequent articles will explore the alternatives.     

An upheaval in u.s. Strategic thought

Early this year, the U.S. land-based force of nuclear missiles became vulnerable to a preemptive attack by the Soviet Union, as the Soviets deployed a large number of highly accurate warheads on their own missiles. They first demonstrated this capability in 1977. Since then, U.S. missile vulnerability has come to assume great importance in superpower relations. Western observers have portrayed the Soviet achievement as a sign of aggression, and made missile vulnerability into a symbol of declining American military strength. The government has proposed a vast military buildup of nuclear weapons, supposedly made necessary by this new threat. But the public is increasingly skeptical, and support for some form of arms control is growing. The first article in this series examines how the United States learned of the Soviet accuracy, and why it caused such great alarm. The next article will examine the Reagan Administration's response to this threat.     

Erratum

In R. Jeffrey Smith's News and Comment article "Antisatellite weapon sets dangerous course" (14 Oct., p. 140), a remark on page 141 (column 3) by Richard Garwin about the usefulness of rockets, balloons, and aircraft to supplant U.S. photoreconnaissance and meterological satellites was inadvertently attributed to Robert Buchheim. And a characterization on page 141 (column 2) of the Soviet antisatellite weapon, or ASAT, was actually made by General Lewis Allen, the former Air Force chief of staff, not by General David Jones, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Finally, a footnote on page 142 should have identified the Patriot as an air-to-air missile, not an air-to-ground missile.     

Cost of space-based laser ballistic missile defense

Orbiting platforms carrying infrared lasers have been proposed as weapons forming the first tier of a ballistic missile defense system under the President's Strategic Defense Initiative. As each laser platform can destroy a limited number of missiles, one of several methods of countering such a system is to increase the number of offensive missiles. Hence it is important to know whether the cost-exchange ratio, defined as the ratio of the cost to the defense of destroying a missile to the cost to the offense of deploying an additional missile, is greater or less than 1. Although the technology to be used in a ballistic missile defense system is still extremely uncertain, it is useful to examine methods for calculating the cost-exchange ratio. As an example, the cost of an orbiting infrared laser ballistic missile defense system employed against intercontinental ballistic missiles launched simultaneously from a small area is compared to the cost of additional offensive missiles. If one adopts lower limits to the costs for the defense and upper limits to the costs for the offense, the cost-exchange ratio comes out substantially greater than 1. If these estimates are confirmed, such a ballistic missile defense system would be unable to maintain its effectiveness at less cost than it would take to proliferate the ballistic missiles necessary to overcome it and would therefore not satisfy the President's requirements for an effective strategic defense. Although the method is illustrated by applying it to a space-based infrared laser system, it should be straightforward to apply it to other proposed systems.     

Space-based radar

The concept of national air defense against aircraft and cruise missiles has been evolving in parallel with the Strategic Defense Initiative and is being referred to as the Air Defense Initiative. One of the most promising sensor concepts for the Air Defense Initiative is space-based radar. Operated at microwave frequencies as an instrument for wide-area surveillance, space-based radar may be useful in mission areas such as fleet defense and battlefield surveillance.     

Genomics. Plant biology in 2010

The completion of the Arabidopsis sequence will be followed by a new ten-year project that will determine the function of all angiosperm genes. Funding for the U.S. component of this multinational project will originate from a new initiative from the U.S. National Science Foundation called the 2010 Project. Progress toward completion of this ambitious project will necessitate significant changes in how the plant biology community selects and approaches research objectives. The plan envisions that the project will facilitate the development of a computational model of a virtual plant that will allow predictive queries about basic mechanisms underlying plant growth and development.     

Industrial innovation in Japan and the United States

Japanese firms tend to be quicker and more economical than U.S.firms at developing and introducing new products and processes, but this advantage seems to exist only among innovations based on external technology, rather than internal technology. Whereas U.S.firms put more emphasis on marketing start-up, they put much less emphasis on tooling, equipment, and manufacturing facilities than do Japanese firms. Applied R&D in Japan, which focuses more on processes than in the United States, seems to have yielded a handsome return; but there is no evidence that the rate of return from basic research has been relatively high in Japan. In robotics, the Japanese edge seems to increase as one moves from R&D toward the market.     

北京市三级甲等医院园林景观满意度评价研究——以北京空军总医院为例

构建了北京市三级甲等医院园林景观满意度测评体系,并以北京空军总医院为例,采用AHP法和Deiphi法研究了园林景观满意度,结果显示:北京空军总医院园林景观总体满意度为3.26,属基本满意;基本环境和道路交通满意度分别为3.63、3.51,属比较满意;服务设施及活动空间和植物景观满意度分别为2.56、3.00,属基本满意...     

论政府信息公开

为了精简政府组织,提高行政效率,提供公众便利、高效的检索机制,美国发展了政府信息指引服务。本文在阐述美国对知情权保护立法的基础上,分析美国政府信息指引服务的发展成因,并提出了我国政府信息公开应采取的措施。     

美苏农业生产比较研究

本文将美国和苏联自50年代以来的农业生产进行了初步的比较研究。总的讲来,苏联的农业落后于美国.除自然条件和某些技术外,最主要的原因是苏联的农业政策和组织管理都过于刻板,过份强调集中计划而忽略生产者的自决权.文章最后提及近年来苏联对农业进行改革已初见成效.只要坚持改革,苏联的农业前景将有所改观。     

Uncertainties in building a strategic defense

Building a strategic defense against nuclear ballistic missiles involves complex and uncertain functional, spatial, and temporal relations. Such a defensive system would evolve and grow over decades. It is too complex, dynamic, and interactive to be fully understood initially by design, analysis, and experiments. Uncertainties exist in the formulation of requirements and in the research and design of a defense architecture that can be implemented incrementally and be fully tested to operate reliably. The analysis and measurement of system survivability, performance, and cost-effectiveness are critical to this process. Similar complexities exist for an adversary's system that would suppress or use countermeasures against a missile defense. Problems and opportunities posed by these relations are described, with emphasis on the unique characteristics and vulnerabilities of space-based systems.     

“十一五”国家科技支撑计划农业领域回顾与思考

在全面总结《国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要(2006-2020年)》中期落实情况之际,深入分析和思考"十一五"国家科技支撑计划农业领域项目实施的经验和存在的不足,对今后农业领域更好的落实纲要后期的任务有着重要的意义。在对农业领域项目的投入产出情况、科技成果转化应用以及科技创新人才基地建设等方面取得的成效进行深入分析的基础上,较为全面的总结了项目实施取得的经验和存在的不足,并针对性的提出了相应的改进措施,对今后农业领域更好的落实《规划纲要》的后期任务有着重要的意义。     

县级土地利用总体规划实施保障措施研究——以新疆伊宁市为例

新一轮土地利用总体规划修编已在全国各地展开,伊宁市作为新疆土地总体规划修编的试点城市,其规划实施保障措施的研究必不可少。针对伊宁市土地利用的实际,根据土地利用规划实施保障体系的基本思路及框架,确立了法律、行政、经济、社会、技术、监督六大保障措施,并对其相关的具体内容进行了阐述,最后提出了几点建议。     

精度验收的五圆方案

本文主要讨论关于导弹发射结果的精度验收标准,并由截尾的序贯抽验方法得到一个截尾数为３的五圆方案,其特点是充分利用各次试验中所提供的信息,使最大平均抽验量比已有的双圆方案及三圆方案要小,以减少由于抽验而造成的损失。     

精度验收的五圆方案

本文主要讨论关于导弹发射结果的精度验收标准，并由截尾的序贯抽验方法得到一个截尾数为３的五圆方案，其特点是充分利用各次试验中所提供的信息，使最大平均抽验量比已有的双圆方案及三圆方案要小，以减少由于抽验而造成的损失。     

Brown on deterrence

Some insight into Secretary of Defense Harold Brown's views on deterrence may be gained from the following excerpts from an address titled "Strategic Force Structure and Strategic Arms Limitations" he delivered at the Institute of U.S. Studies of the Soviet Academy of Science in Moscow in March 1975.     

美国农产品贸易的发展趋势及特点

近20年来,美国农产品贸易规模不断扩大,贸易总额由1991年的817．4亿美元增加到2011年的2756．1亿美元,成为全球最大的农产品进出口国。美国农产品贸易的产品结构特征突出,出口以谷物、食用油籽和棉花等资源密集型产品为主,而进口则以饮品、水产品、蔬菜和水果等劳动密集型产品为主。美国农产品贸易的市场架构具有非常强的地缘性,出口市场靠“北关自由贸易区”和中、日、韩东亚三国两个轮子驱动,而进口来源地则较为牢固。总之,近20年来,美国在主要农产品进出口方面仍占主导地位,但其在国际市场上的份额和统治力均有所下降。预计2013年和2014年美国农产品出口额将会继续保持20％左右的增速,进口额增速将保持在10％左右。     

宁夏银川市地下水资源费征收标准调整方案浅议

为了合理开发、管理水资源,建立水资源投资机制和价格体系.分析了目前银川市周边地区水资源费征收管理现状和存在的问题,提出了银川市水资源费征收的建议和对策.     

U.s. Trade policy at a crossroad

U.S. trade policy since the end of World War II has rested on two pillars: a multilateral approach to trade agreements and a commitment to rules rather than results. Support for each principle is rapidly eroding because of, among other things, record trade deficits and pessimism about the effects of exchange rate movements on trade flows. In fact, however, U.S. trade deficits are largely "homemade," and trade flows are responsive to changes in exchange rates. The U.S. has played a leadership role in promoting freer trade on a multilateral basis. Adoption of any one of a number of recently proposed alternative trade policy frameworks would be counter to that role.     

对飞行学院开展信息素质教育的思考

本文从对信息素质的认识入手,提出了飞行学院树立信息素质教育理念是适应空军转型建设的需要、是飞行学院任职教育的需要、是飞行人才成长发展的需要的观点。重点围绕飞行学院图书馆如何开展任职教育阶段的信息素质教育,对模式和方法上进行初步探索和研究,提出了图书馆必须实现4个转变：由被动服务型向主动育人型转变;由浅层次文献型向深层次研究型转变;由＂书本位＂型向＂人本位＂型转变;由封闭的阵地型向开放的机动型转变。