Zoning,land use,and urban tree canopy cover: The importance of scale

Declining urban tree canopy cover in the United States underscores the importance of elucidating factors that influence the distribution of urban trees. This is particularly relevant as most urban trees are located on private property while their canopies maintain ecosystem services that constitute public goods. Thus, municipalities establish institutions in the form of canopy cover goals and various policies to incentivize private actions to meet those goals. However, urban land use, as governed by municipal zoning policies, plays a role in the abundance, distribution, and potential future location of urban trees independent of policies meant specifically to manage canopy. For instance, previous research finds that lands zoned for residential and park development have the highest canopy cover relative to other land uses. Yet, little research has explored whether this conclusion holds across scales of analysis and how it might influence our understanding of potential canopy cover and relative canopy cover. Thus, we ask, does the nature of the relationship between zoning and canopy cover change between aggregated and disaggregated zoning scales and how might this knowledge improve the sustainability of urban forest management? To answer this question, we classified high resolution National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) images of Bloomington, Indiana land cover and compared existing, potential and relative canopy cover across aggregated and disaggregated zones. Results demonstrate an important exception to the oft-cited theory that residential lands have higher canopy cover, a conclusion that our data supports only at the scale of an aggregated interpretation of zoning. At a disaggregated scale, residential high density zones are significantly different than all other residential zones and more akin to commercial zones in terms of all canopy metrics. For urban forest managers and urban planners, this suggests the relevance of fine-scale variation in land-use policies and related canopy cover policies.     

The effects of future urban development on habitat fragmentation in the Santa Monica Mountains

A site suitability model of urban development was created for the Santa Monica Mountains in southern California, USA, to project to what degree future development might fragment the natural habitat. The purpose was to help prioritize land acquisition for the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area and examine to what extent projected urban development would affect distinct vegetation classes. The model included both environmental constraints (slope angle), and spatial factors related to urban planning (proximity to roads and existing development, proposed development, and areas zoned for development). It implemented a stochastic component; areas projected to have high development potential in the suitability model were randomly selected for development. Ownership tracts were used as the spatial unit of development in order to give the model spatial realism and not arbitrarily `develop' grid cells. Using different assumptions and parameters, the model projected the pattern of development from 5 to 25 years hence (based on recent development rates in the area). While <25% of the remaining natural landscape is removed under these scenarios, up to 30% of core (interior) habitat area is lost and edge length between natural vegetation and development increases as much as 45%. Measures of landscape shape complexity increased with area developed and number of patches of natural habitat increased four- to nine-fold, depending upon model parameters. This increase in fragmentation occurs because of the existing patterns of land ownership, where private (`developable') land is interspersed with preserved park lands.     

Forest fragmentation as an economic indicator

Despite concern over the ecological consequences of conversion of land from natural cover to anthropogenic uses, there are few studies that show a quantitative relationship between fragmentation and economic factors. For the southside economic region of Virginia, we generated a surface (map) of urbanization pressure by interpolation of population from a ring of cities surrounding the region. The interpolated map showed a geographic gradient of urbanization pressure or demand for land that increased from northwest to southeast. Estimates of forest fragmentation were moderately correlated with the geographic gradient of urbanization pressure. The fragmentation-urbanization relationship was corroborated by examining land-cover change against the urbanization map. The geographic gradient in land-cover change was strongly correlated with the urbanization pressure gradient. The correspondence between geographic gradients in land-cover change and urbanization pressure suggests that forest fragmentation will occur at a greater rate in the eastern portion of the southside economic region in the future.     

Modeling the spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range

A common approach to land use change analyses in multidisciplinary landscape-level studies is to delineate discrete forest and non-forest or urban and non-urban land use categories to serve as inputs into sets of integrated sub-models describing socioeconomic and ecological processes. Such discrete land use categories, however, may be inappropriate when the socioeconomic and ecological processes under study are sensitive to a range of human habitation. In this paper, we characterize the spatial dynamic distribution of humans throughout the forest landscape of western Oregon (USA). We develop an empirical model describing the spatial distribution and rate of change in historic building densities as a function of a gravity index of development pressure, existing building densities, slope, elevation, and existing land use zoning. We use the empirical model to project changes in building densities that are applied to a 1995 base map of building density to describe future spatial distributions of buildings over time. The projected building density maps serve as inputs into a multidisciplinary landscape-level analysis of socioeconomic and ecological processes in Oregon's Coast Range Mountains. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Riparian habitat changes across the continental United States (1972–2003) and potential implications for sustaining ecosystem services

Riparian ecosystems are important elements in landscapes that often provide a disproportionately wide range of ecosystem services and conservation benefits. Their protection and restoration have been one of the top environmental management priorities across the US over the last several years. Despite the level of concern, visibility and management effort, little is known about trends in riparian habitats. Moreover, little is known about whether or not cumulative efforts to restore and protect riparian zones and floodplains are affecting the rates of riparian habitat change nationwide. To address these issues, we analyzed riparian land cover change between the early 1970s and the late 1990s/early 2000s using existing spatial data on hydrography and land cover. This included an analysis of land cover changes within 180 m riparian buffer zones, and at catchment scales, for 42,363 catchments across 63 ecoregions of the continental US. The total amount of forest and natural land cover (forests, shrublands, wetlands) in riparian buffers declined by 0.7 and 0.9%, respectively across the entire study period. Gains in grassland/shrubland accounted for the 0.2% lower percentage of total natural land cover loss relative to forests. Conversely, urban and developed land cover (urban, agriculture, and mechanically disturbed lands) increased by more than 1.3% within riparian buffers across the entire study period. Despite these changes, we documented an opposite trend of increasing proportions of natural and forest land cover in riparian buffers versus the catchment scale. We surmise that this trend might reflect a combination of natural recovery and cumulative efforts to protect riparian ecosystems across the US. However, existing models limit our ability to assess the impacts of these changes on specific ecosystem services. We discuss the implications of changes observed in this study on the sustainability of ecosystem services. We also recommend opportunties for future riparian change assessments.     

An investigation of uncertainty in field habitat mapping and the implications for detecting land cover change

Land cover data for landscape ecological studies are frequently obtained by field survey. In the United Kingdom, temporally separated field surveys have been used to identify the locations and magnitudes of recent changes in land cover. However, such map data contain errors which may seriously hinder the identification of land cover change and the extent and locations of rare landscape features. This paper investigates the extent of the differences between two sets of maps derived from field surveys within the Northumberland National Park in 1991 and 1992. The method used in each survey was the Phase 1 approach of the Nature Conservancy Council of Great Britain. Differences between maps were greatest for the land cover types with the smallest areas. Overall spatial correspondence between maps was found to be only 44.4%. A maximum of 14.4% of the total area surveyed was found to have undergone genuine land cover change. The remaining discrepancies, equivalent to 41.2% of the total survey area, were attributed primarily to differences of land cover interpretation between surveyors (classification error). Differences in boundary locations (positional error) were also noted, but were found to be a relatively minor source of error. The implications for the detection of land cover change and habitat mapping are discussed.     

Tropical forest regeneration following land abandonment is driven by primary rainforest distribution in an old pastoral region

Context

Tropical forest regeneration is increasingly prominent as agro-pastoral lands are abandoned. Regeneration is characterised as favouring ‘marginal’ lands; however, observations of its drivers are often coarse or simple, leaving doubt as to spatial dynamics and causation.

Objectives

We quantified the spatial dynamics of forest regeneration relative to marginality and remnant forest cover in a 3000 km² pastoral region in northern tropical Australia.

Methods

Classification and regression trees related the extent and distribution of regeneration to soil agricultural potential, land-cover history, terrain slope, distance to primary forest, and primary forest fragment size, as defined by aerial photography.

Results

Secondary forest extent and distribution overwhelmingly reflect the proximity and size of primary forest fragments. Some 85 % of secondary forest area occurs <1 km of primary forest, and 86 % of secondary forest patches >50 ha are <400 m from primary forest and coincident with historic primary forest fragments. Where primary forest fragments are >8.5 ha, secondary forest area declines less rapidly with increasing distance from primary forest up to 1.5 km. Marginality inferred by soil potential and slope had no bearing on regeneration, except at the coarsest of spatial scales where regeneration is a proxy for primary forest cover.

Conclusion

Findings underline the need to conserve even modest rainforest patches as propagule reservoirs enabling regeneration. Marginality per se may have a limited role in regeneration. As most secondary forest was an extension of primary forest, its unique conservation value relative to that of primary forest may likewise merit reconsideration.

     

The inequity of distribution of urban forest and ecosystem services in Cali,Colombia

Little is known about urban forest planning, management and its benefits in emerging countries. The uneven distribution of tree canopy cover and parks in urban area is related to environmental justice, especially with disadvantaged socio-economic and marginated communities. However, the inequity of urban forest in many cities of emerging countries where often found irregular and unregulated land use patterns and social and socio-economic inequities, is hardly highlighted. This study explores the inequity of distribution of tree canopy cover and public park in Cali, Colombia. Utilizing the traditional socio-economic indices, the stratification, linear regression analysis is conducted to describe relationship between total tree canopy cover, tree canopy cover of various land use types, number of parks and park area per capita. The result demonstrates that lower income communities have lower tree canopy cover, fewer parks and smaller park area than higher income communities. This paper discusses importance of accounting for urban forests and ecosystem service in city planning efforts and better strategies of reducing inequity in emerging countries. Addressing the inequity of urban forest could be a better strategy to create resilient, sustainable, safe and livable cities in emerging countries.     

Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes

In northern Patagonia, Argentina we quantify changes in fire frequency along a gradient from mesic Nothofagus dombeyi forest to xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis at the steppe ecotone, and we examine patterns of vegetation change coincident with the changes in fire regimes across a range of spatial scales. At a regional scale changes in land cover types are documented by comparing 1:250000 scale cover type maps from 1913 and 1985. Changes in landscape structure are analyzed by comparing vegetation patterns on 1:24000 scale aerial photographs taken in 1940 and 1970. Fire frequency peaked in the late nineteenth-century due to widespread burning and clearing of forests by European settlers late in the century. Subsequently, fire frequency declined dramatically about 1910 due to the cessation of intentional fires and has remained low due to increasingly effective fire exclusion. At a regional scale there has been a dramatic increase during the twentieth century in the proportion of forest cover relative to areas mapped as recent burns or shrublands in 1913. Remnant forest patches that survived the widespread late-nineteenth century burning have coalesced to form more continuous forest covers, and formerly continuous areas of shrublands have become dissected by forest. Under reduced fire frequency there has been a shift in dominance from short-lived resprouting species (mostly shrubs) towards longer-lived species and obligate seed-dispersers such as Austrocedrus chilensis and Nothofagus dombeyi. Due to limited seed dispersal of these tree species, the spatial configuration of remnant forest patches plays a key role in subsequent changes in landscape pattern.     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Improving tree cover estimates for fine-scale landscape ecology

Context

Mapping the presence of trees is an important tool for assessing tree-covered habitats, their changes, and calculating variables, like forest area and fragmentation.

Objective

Despite the popularity of automated pattern recognition to make tree cover maps, their accuracy and precision are rarely tested or compared to more modest methods, like human-based pattern recognition to identify tree cover.

Methods

Here, we test the performance of two computer-generated tree mapping products, the Global Change Forest database and the Carnegie Landsat Analysis System, against ground surveys and a human-made tree cover map created using Google Earth to hand digitize the presence and absence of trees in a diversified agricultural region in Costa Rica (934 km²).

Results

The human-made tree cover map properly classified 100% ground survey sites and explained 81% of the variance in percent of canopy cover values from the field. The Global Change Forest database misclassified 18 of 23 ground survey sites in deforested locations and explained 6% of the variance in percent of canopy cover values from ground surveys. The Carnegie Landsat Analysis System misclassified 9 of 23 ground survey sites in deforested locations and explained 38% of the variance in percent of canopy cover values from the field.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the Global Change Forest database overestimated tree cover by of 20% and the Carnegie Landsat Analysis System by 1%. We caution landscape ecologists working at fine spatial scales against using computer-generated tree cover, especially in the partially forested lands that increasingly cover the planet.

     

Land-use and land-cover dynamics in response to changes in climatic,biological and socio-political forces: the case of southwestern Ethiopia

Few studies of land-use/land-cover change provide an integrated assessment of the driving forces and consequences of that change, particularly in Africa. Our objectives were to determine how driving forces at different scales change over time, how these forces affect the dynamics and patterns of land use/land cover, and how land-use/land-cover change affects ecological properties at the landscape scale. To accomplish these objectives, we first developed a way to identify the causes and consequences of change at a landscape scale by integrating tools from ecology and the social sciences and then applied these methods to a case study in Ghibe Valley, southwestern Ethiopia. Maps of land-use/land-cover change were created from aerial photography and Landsat TM imagery for the period, 1957–1993. A method called `ecological time lines' was developed to elicit landscape-scale explanations for changes from long-term residents. Cropland expanded at twice the speed recently (1987–1993) than two decades ago (1957–1973), but also contracted rapidly between 1973–1987. Rapid land-use/land cover change was caused by the combined effects of drought and migration, changes in settlement and land tenure policy, and changes in the severity of the livestock disease, trypanosomosis, which is transmitted by the tsetse fly. The scale of the causes and consequences of land-use/land-cover change varied from local to sub-national (regional) to international and the links between causes and consequences crossed scales. At the landscape scale, each cause affected the location and pattern of land use/land cover differently. The contraction of cropland increased grass biomass and cover, woody plant cover, the frequency and extent of savanna burning, and the abundance of wildlife. With recent control of the tsetse fly, these ecological changes are being reversed. These complex patterns are discussed in the context of scaling issues and current conceptual models of land-use/land-cover change.     

Planning for the conservation and sustainable use of urban forestry in Addis Ababa,Ethiopia

The planning and management of urban forest has become increasingly important as a focus of urban environmental management. The objectives of this study were to analyze the landuse/land cover and to map functional zones of the urban forest in the upper catchment area of Addis Ababa. This study identifies five landuse/land cover types: (i) Eucalyptus–Juniperus dominated forest, (ii) mixed native forest, (iii) built-up areas, (iv) Eucalyptus plantation (v) crop/grazing lands. The vegetation analysis shows 44 woody plant species representing 31 families, out of which 13 tree species, 29 shrubs and two species of lianas. The woody species diversity was 1.35 with the species richness and evenness of 44 and 0.80, respectively. This indicates that the forest has poor species diversity which is attributed to high anthropogenic pressure and monoculture plantation development strategies in the last decades. The density of plants ranged from 25 for Olea europea to 825 individuals per hectare for Eucalyptus globules from the tree layers and from 50 for Dombeya torrida and Erica arborea to 900 individuals per hectare for Myrsine africana from shrub layers. Based on importance value index (IVI), Eucalyptus globulus and Juniperus procera showed the highest IVI of 96.37 and 54.80, respectively as compared to other species. The forest structure showed higher contagious distribution where out of the recorded 44 species, 37 species showed contagious distribution. The result also showed poor regeneration potential in all studied forest layers. Based on the landuse/cover analysis, the phytosociological study and field observation, this study recommends six urban forest zoning. These include: (i) conservation zone, (ii) recreation zone, (iii) production zone, (iv) agroforestry zone, (v) reforestation zone, (vi) buffer zone between the green area and the built-up environment. The green area in the upper catchment has no definite boundaries and needs re-demarcation activities.     

The effects of land tenure and land use on the urban forest structure and composition of Melbourne

The urban forest provides valuable ecosystem services for enhancing human well-being. Its structure and composition determine the quantity and quality of these services. There has been little research on the heterogeneity in structure and composition of urban forests in the Australasian region, especially in the centre of a highly dynamic and rapidly urbanizing city. This paper quantifies the structure and the composition of the urban forest of Melbourne, Australia's city centre. The effects of land tenure and land use on the heterogeneity of canopy cover, tree density and canopy size were explored. Species and family composition by land use, land ownership and street type were also analysed using the Shannon–Wiener and Jaccard similarity indices. Most of the canopy cover in the city centre is located on public land and is unevenly distributed across the municipality. The mean canopy cover (12.3%) is similar to that found for whole city studies around the world, which often include peri-urban forests. Similarly to other cities, structure varied across different land uses, and tree size, density and cover varied with land tenure and street type. The diversity index shows that the urban forest is rich in species (H′ = 2.9) and is dominated by native species. Improving the distribution, and increasing tree cover and variety of species will result in a more resilient urban centre, able to provide multiple ecosystem services to their residents and its large population of visitors and workers. The study of the urban centre provides further understanding of compact city morphologies, and allows inter-city comparison independent of the size.     

Reading past landscapes: combining modern and historical records,maps, pollen-based vegetation reconstructions,and the socioeconomic background

Context

Anthropogenic and environmental changes are reshaping landscapes across the globe. In this context, understanding the patterns, drivers, and consequences of these changes is one of the central challenges of humankind.

Purpose

We aim to test the possibilities of combining modern multidisciplinary approaches to reconstruct the land-cover and linking the changes in land-cover to socioeconomic shifts in southern Estonia over the last 200 years.

Methods

The historical records from five, and maps from six time periods and 79 pollen-based land-cover reconstructions from four lakes are used to determine the land-cover structure and composition and are thereafter combined with the literature based analyses of socioeconomic changes.

Results

All information sources recorded similar changes in the land-cover. The anthropogenic deforestation was comparable to today’s (approximately 50%) during the nineteenth century. Major political and socioeconomic changes led to the intensification of agriculture and maximal deforestation (60–85%) at the beginning of the twentieth century. The land nationalisation following the Soviet occupation led to the reforestation of the less productive agricultural lands. This trend continued until the implementation of European Union agrarian subsidies at the beginning of the twenty first century.

Conclusions

Pollen-based reconstructions provide a trustworthy alternative to historical records and maps. Accounting for source specific biases is essential when dealing with any data source. The landscape’s response to socioeconomic changes was considerable in Estonia over the last 200 years. Changes in land ownership and the global agricultural market are major drivers in determining the strength and direction of the land-cover change.

     

Tree mortality rates and tree population projections in Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Based on re-measurements (1999 and 2001) of randomly-distributed permanent plots within the city boundaries of Baltimore, Maryland, trees are estimated to have an annual mortality rate of 6.6% with an overall annual net change in the number of live trees of –4.2%. Tree mortality rates were significantly different based on tree size, condition, species, and land use. Morus alba, Ailanthus altissima, and trees in small diameter classes, poor condition, or in transportation or commercial – industrial land uses exhibited relatively high mortality rates. Trees in medium- to low-density residential areas exhibited low mortality rates. The high mortality rate for A. altissima is an artifact of this species distribution among land use types (24% were in the transportation land use). Based on a new tree population projection model that incorporates Baltimore's existing tree population and annual mortality estimates, along with estimates of annual tree growth, Baltimore's urban forest is projected to decline in both number of trees and canopy area over the next century. Factors affecting urban tree mortality are discussed.     

Forest recovery in a tropical landscape: what is the relative importance of biophysical,socioeconomic, and landscape variables?

Socioeconomic changes in many areas in the tropics have led to increasing urbanization, abandonment of agriculture, and forest re-growth. Although these patterns are well documented, few studies have examined the drivers leading to landscape-level forest recovery and the resulting spatial structure of secondary forests. Land cover transitions from agricultural lands to secondary forest in the island of Puerto Rico have been ongoing since the 1940s. This study is a glimpse into this landscape level trend from 1991 to 2000. First, we relied on Landsat images to characterize changes in the landscape structure for forest, urban, and agricultural land classes. We found that although forest cover has increased in this period, forest has become increasingly fragmented while the area of urban cover has spread faster and become more clustered. Second, we used logistic regression to assess the relationship between the transition to forest and 21 biophysical, socioeconomic, and landscape variables. We found that the percentage of forest cover within a 100 m radius of a point, distance to primary roads and nature reserves, slope, and aspect are the most important predictors of forest recovery. The resulting model predicts the spatial pattern of forest recovery with accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.798). Together, our results suggest that forest recovery in Puerto Rico has slowed down and that increasing pressure from urbanization may be critical in determining future landscape level forest recovery. These results are relevant to other areas in the tropics that are undergoing rapid economic development.     

90 years of forest cover change in an urbanizing watershed: spatial and temporal dynamics

Landscape structure in the Eastern US experienced great changes in the last century with the expansion of forest cover into abandoned agricultural land and the clearing of secondary forest cover for urban development. In this paper, the spatial and temporal patterns of forest cover from 1914 to 2004 in the Gwynns Falls watershed in Baltimore, Maryland were quantified from historic maps and aerial photographs. Using a database of forest patches from six times—1914, 1938, 1957, 1971, 1999, and 2004—we found that forest cover changed, both temporally and spatially. While total forest area remained essentially constant, turnover in forest cover was very substantial. Less than 20% of initial forest cover remained unchanged. Forest cover became increasingly fragmented as the number, size, shape, and spatial distribution of forest patches within the watershed changed greatly. Forest patch change was also analyzed within 3-km distance bands extending from the urban core to the more suburban end of the watershed. This analysis showed that, over time, the location of high rates of forest cover change shifted from urban to suburban bands which coincides with the spatial shift of urbanization. Forest cover tended to be more stable in and near the urban center, whereas forest cover changed more in areas where urbanization was still in process. These results may have critical implications for the ecological functioning of forest patches and underscore the need to integrate multi-temporal data layers to investigate the spatial pattern of forest cover and the temporal variations of that spatial pattern.     

Landscape drivers of butterfly and burnet moth diversity in lowland rural areas

Context

Butterflies have been continuously declining for several decades in Europe due to many factors, such as farming intensification. Rural landscapes have undergone dramatic changes leading to homogenized landscapes.

Objectives

In this study, we investigated how landscape composition, structure and connectivity impact butterfly communities according to their ecological and biological traits.

Methods

We made use of 5669 Lepidoptera surveys performed at 4525 distinct locations in lowland Central France. We considered 19 ecological groups based on habitat specialization, mobility, diet, voltinism or overwintering strategy. Generalized linear mixed-effect models were used to relate the species richness of these groups to landscape variables defined in circular zones with radius from 250 m to 5 km.

Results

Richness of most species groups co-varied with landscape variables, with the exception of mobile, imago-overwintering, monophagous and polyphagous species. Habitat proportion explained more variation in butterfly diversity than habitat connectivity or habitat diversity. Moreover, the best proportion models were generally found for the 250-m circular zones. Thirteen species groups were disfavored by cropland amount. Except for forest specialists and high mobility group, no other group was more diverse in landscapes dominated by a single land cover type. Rather, for total diversity and 14 groups, species richness peaked for forest proportions varying between 40 and 80%, and for total diversity and nine groups for grassland proportions ranging from 30 to 60%.

Conclusions

These results indicate that landscape homogenization is contributing to the ongoing decline in butterflies, and support preserving and (re)creating mosaics of grasslands and forests.

     

Landscape and local effects on occupancy and densities of an endangered wood-warbler in an urbanizing landscape

Context

Golden-cheeked warblers (Setophaga chrysoparia), an endangered wood-warbler, breed exclusively in woodlands co-dominated by Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) in central Texas. Their breeding range is becoming increasingly urbanized and habitat loss and fragmentation are a main threat to the species’ viability.

Objectives

We investigated the effects of remotely sensed local habitat and landscape attributes on point occupancy and density of warblers in an urban preserve and produced a spatially explicit density map for the preserve using model-supported relationships.

Methods

We conducted 1507 point-count surveys during spring 2011–2014 across Balcones Canyonlands Preserve (BCP) to evaluate warbler habitat associations and predict density of males. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate multiple components of detection probability and evaluate covariate effects on detection probability, point occupancy, and density.

Results

Point occupancy was positively related to landscape forest cover and local canopy cover; mean occupancy was 0.83. Density was influenced more by local than landscape factors. Density increased with greater amounts of juniper and mixed forest and decreased with more open edge. There was a weak negative relationship between density and landscape urban land cover.

Conclusions

Landscape composition and habitat structure were important determinants of warbler occupancy and density, and the large intact patches of juniper and mixed forest on BCP (>2100 ha) supported a high density of warblers. Increasing urbanization and fragmentation in the surrounding landscape will likely result in lower breeding density due to loss of juniper and mixed forest and increasing urban land cover and edge.