Risk factors for transmission of foot-and-mouth disease during an outbreak in southern England in 2007

During an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in southern England in 2007, a case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for infection and to investigate the relative impact of risk factors on transmission between the infected farms. Seven of the eight case farms in the outbreak and 22 control farms participated. Data were collected via questionnaires and subjected to comparative statistical analysis. Case farms were further classified as primary or secondary according to the likely source of infection during the study. On primary case farms, it was plausible that infection had been introduced directly from the original source. On secondary case farms, FMD infection was more likely to have originated from another infected premises. Calving occurred more frequently on case farms than on control farms during the risk period, and the two primary case farms had a larger proportion of youngstock than the other farms. Secondary case farms (n=5) had a higher composite environmental risk score and a lower biosecurity score than control farms.     

A generic spreadsheet model of a disease epidemic with application to the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK

A generic, stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to calculate the number of cases within the first 100 days of a propagating epidemic and with the ability to incorporate generic control measures. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics were simulated with a range of assumptions about the number of cases incubating the disease on day 1 and the efficiency of control measures. Particularly severe epidemics resulted from scenarios with low efficiency of control measures and high numbers incubating. Control measures that prevented 0.8 of cases from resulting in new cases were able to reduce substantially the cumulative number of cases. The results of various scenarios using the model were compared to the number of cases of FMD in the first 100 days of the 2001 outbreak in the UK, with specific reference to cases in Cumbria and Anglesey. Potential practical and educational applications of the model are discussed.     

Epidemiological investigations of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Argentina

A total of 2126 herds, an attack rate of 0.82 per cent, were affected during an epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Argentina in 2001. The spatial and temporal distribution of the epidemic was investigated using nearest-neighbour and spatial scan tests and by estimating the frequency distributions of the times to intervention, and distances and times between outbreaks. The outbreaks were clustered and associated significantly (P<0.01) with herd density; 94 per cent were located in the Pampeana region, where the cattle population is concentrated, which had an attack rate of 1.4 per cent. The clustering results suggested that the virus had spread locally between outbreaks. Most of the outbreaks were separated by one day and the maximum distance between outbreaks was almost 2000 km, indicating that the infection spread rapidly over large distances. The index outbreak was detected more than 15 days after the primary outbreak, and restrictions on the movement of cattle were probably not enforced until about one month after infection occurred. As in other major epidemics, the period between the first outbreaks and the effective application of control strategies was probably crucial in determining the progress of the epidemic.     

Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in Peninsular Malaysia from 2001 to 2007

This is a retrospective study of the outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peninsular Malaysia between 2001 and May 2007. In total, 270 outbreaks of FMD were recorded. Serotype O virus (89.95 %) and serotype A (7.7 %) had caused the outbreaks. Significant differences on the occurrence of FMD were found between the years (t?=?5.73, P?=?0.000, df?=?11), months (t?=?4.7, P?=?0.000, df?=?11), monsoon season (t?=?2.63, P?=?0.025, df?=?10) and states (t?=?4.84, P?=?0.001, df?=?10). A peak of outbreaks observed in 2003 could be due to increased animal movement and the other peak in 2006 could be due to a compromised FMD control activities due to activities on the eradication of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Cattle (86 % of outbreaks) suffered the most. However, no difference in disease occurrence between species was observed. The populations of cattle (r?=?0.672, P?=?0.023) and sheep (r?=?0.678, P?=?0.022) were significantly correlated with occurrence of FMD. Movement of animals (66 % of outbreaks) was the main source for outbreaks. A combination of control measures were implemented during outbreaks. In conclusion, the findings of this study show that FMD is endemic in Peninsular Malaysia, and information gained could be used to improve the existing control strategy.     

Experiences with the control of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the government district of Hannover

An FMD-outbreak in the Hannover provincial government district is reported. Cattle and pigs in 6 farms were affected. In all cases FMD-serotype O1 was isolated. The origin of the virus could not be clearly found. The new disease control measures in the FRG are regarded as adequate. It is recommended that all disease control measures should be immediately coordinated by the provincial district government from the very beginning. All infected farms were immediately cleared. For the first time the electric killing method was applied. In an area of about 13 kms around the outbreak all clawed animals were immediately vaccinated. Attention is directed to the economic losses as a result of commercial restrictions placed on agricultural products from the infected area.     

Immune responses to foot-and-mouth disease virus in pig farms after the 1997 outbreak in Taiwan

This paper reports on a retrospective study of the antibody responses to structural and non-structural proteins of FMD virus O Taiwan 97 in six pig herds in Taiwan in the year after the 1997 Taiwanese FMD outbreak. All herds were vaccinated against FMD after the outbreak as part of the countrywide control program. Three of the herds had confirmed FMD infections (herds N, O and P) and three herds remained non-infected (herds K, L and M). The serum neutralizing antibody titers and the non-structural protein ELISA (NSP) antibody responses in sows and 1-month-old pigs in the infected herds were higher than in the non-infected herds, but over time a number of positive NSP reactors were detected. From the serological studies and the herd monitoring and investigations it was considered that the FMD NSP positive reactors may not have constituted a true reservoir of FMD virus infection especially in herds where susceptible pigs were no longer present post-exposure or post-vaccination. Pigs vaccinated with an unpurified FMD type O vaccines being used at that time also showed false positive responses for NSP antibodies.     

The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions

The North American Animal Disease Spread Model is a stochastic, spatial, state-transition simulation model for the spread of highly contagious diseases of animals. It was developed with broad international support to assist policy development and decision making involving disease incursions. User-established parameters define model behavior in terms of disease progression; disease spread by animal-to-animal contact, contact with contaminated personnel or equipment, and airborne dissemination; and the implementation of control measures such as destruction and vaccination. Resources available to implement disease control strategies, as well as the direct costs associated with these strategies, are taken into consideration. The model records a wide variety of measures of the extent of simulated outbreaks and other characteristics. The graphical interface and output visualization features also make it a useful tool for training and preparedness exercises. This model is now being used to evaluate outbreak scenarios and potential control strategies for several economically important exotic animal diseases in the United States, Canada, and elsewhere. NAADSM is freely available via the Internet at http://www.naadsm.org.     

印度口蹄疫疫情的风险分析与评价

口蹄疫是一种危害哺乳动物的高度接触性传染病,由口蹄疫病毒引起,对易感偶蹄动物具有严重的潜在经济危害。世界动物卫生组织将其列为重点必须上报疫病,我国也认定其为一类动物传染病。本文根据印度开展口蹄疫防控管理与监测监控情况等相关材料、收集的相关国家和地区口蹄疫疫情信息以及世界动物卫生组织对于口蹄疫疫区划分和区域化管理措施等信息,对印度偶蹄类动物及其产品携带和传播口蹄疫病毒的风险进行了全面、科学的分析,对将来我国从印度进口偶蹄类动物及其产品提供了重要的科学依据。     

Potential revenue impact of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States

OBJECTIVE: To estimate potential revenue impacts of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the United States similar to the outbreak in the United Kingdom during 2001. DESIGN: Economic analysis successively incorporating quarantine and slaughter of animals, an export ban, and consumer fears about the disease were used to determine the combined impact. SAMPLE POPULATION: Secondary data for cattle, swine, lambs, poultry, and products of these animals. PROCEDURE: Data for 1999 were used to calibrate a model for the US agricultural sector. Removal of animals, similar to that observed in the United Kingdom, was introduced, along with a ban on exportation of livestock, red meat, and dairy products and a reduction and shift in consumption of red meat in the United States. RESULTS: The largest impacts on farm income of an FMD outbreak were from the loss of export markets and reductions in domestic demand arising from consumer fears, not from removal of infected animals. These elements could cause an estimated decrease of $14 billion (9.5%) in US farm income. Losses in gross revenue for each sector were estimated to be the following: live swine, -34%; pork, -24%; live cattle -17%; beef, -20%; milk, -16%; live lambs and sheep, -14%; lamb and sheep meat, -10%; forage, -15%; and soybean meal, -7%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Procedures to contain an outbreak of FMD to specific regions and allow maintenance of FMD-free exports and efforts to educate consumers about health risks are critical to mitigating adverse economic impacts of an FMD outbreak.     

Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, andTulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. RESULTS: Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.     

Investigation of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in vaccinated dairy cattle in Thailand

SUMMARY An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that spread between two related vaccinated dairy herds was investigated. Although the cattle were of similar vaccination status, in one herd there was high morbidity, whereas in the other there was considerably lower morbidity. The relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus was expressed as an r value determined by the two-dimensional neutralisation test. Bovine serum homologous to the vaccine virus indicated a close antigenic relationship between the vaccine virus and the outbreak virus (r = 0.61). The source of the outbreak virus was not determined. The investigation suggested a requirement for close contact between stock for foot-and-mouth disease to spread in a tropical environment, in contrast to the capacity of the disease to spread considerable distances by aerosol transmission in temperate climates.     

Simulation analyses to evaluate alternative control strategies for the 2002 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the Republic of Korea

Using the stochastic and spatial simulation model of between-farm spread of disease, InterSpread Plus, we evaluated the effect of alternative strategies for controlling the 2002 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Republic of Korea. InterSpread Plus was parameterised to simulate epidemics of FMD in the population of farms containing susceptible animal species in the Korean counties of Yongin, Icheon, Pyongtaek, Anseong, Eumseong, Asan, Cheonan, and Jincheon. The starting point of our analyses was the simulation of a reference strategy, which approximated the real epidemic. The results of simulations of alternative epidemic-control strategies were compared with this reference strategy. Ring vaccination (when used with either limited or extended pre-emptive depopulation) reduced both the size and variability of the predicted number of infected farms. Reducing the time between disease incursion and commencement of controls had the greatest effect on reducing the predicted number of infected farms.     

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection status and distance and direction from the index farm. The UK Met Office's NAME atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) was used to generate plumes for each day that FMDV was excreted from the index farm based on actual historical weather records from October 1967. Daily airborne FMDV exposure rates for all farms in the study area were calculated using a geographical information system. Probit analyses were used to calculate dose-response probability of infection curves to FMDV, using relative exposure rates on case and control farms. Both the logistic regression and probit analyses gave strong statistical support to the hypothesis that airborne spread occurred. There was some evidence that incubation period was inversely proportional to the exposure rate.     

Epidemiology and control of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the Republic of Ireland in 2001

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease was confirmed in a flock of sheep on a farm in the Cooley peninsula, County Louth, on March 22, 2001. The virus was similar to other viruses of the serotype O PanAsian strain and virtually indistinguishable from other isolates from Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The epidemiological evidence suggested that infected sheep brought from Great Britain on February 19, 2001, were the source of the infection. The disease was eradicated by epidemiological investigation, serological testing and extensive culling.     

Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States

Alternative mitigation strategies were compared during hypothetical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the USA using a computer-simulation model. The epidemiologic and economic consequences were compared during these simulated outbreaks. Three vaccination and four slaughter strategies were studied along with two speeds of FMD virus spread among three susceptible populations of animals. The populations represented typical animal demographics in the United States.The best strategy depended on the speed of spread of FMD virus and the demographics of the susceptible population. Slaughter of herds in contact with known contagious herds was less costly than slaughtering only contagious herds. Slaughtering in 3 km rings around contagious herds was consistently more costly than other slaughter strategies. Ring vaccination in 10 km rings was judged more costly than slaughter alone in most situations. Although early ring vaccination resulted in lower government costs and duration in fast-spread scenarios, it was more costly when vaccinated animals were slaughtered with indemnity and other related slaughter costs.     

Conclusions from the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the government district of Hannover in 1987/1988

Kn?sel und Tiroke (1989) reported recently experiences derived from the control of FMD outbreaks in 1987/88 in Lower Saxony (FRG). On the basis of the described facts and in connection with the observations of the other outbreaks during the last 20 years in the FRG several conclusions were drawn: (1) The compulsory annual vaccination was not able to prevent these outbreaks. (2) Hence follows that very probable introductions of FMD from foreign countries cannot be prevented, especially since such infections were due to infected swill fed to pigs, and those strains were normally not related to the vaccine strains used. (3) Considering all circumstances of the recent outbreaks, it seems unrealistic to believe the primary infection was not due to the escape of virus from the neighboring vaccine plant. (4) The annual vaccination campaigns since 1970 against FMD were useless because most of the primary outbreaks of FMD since then can be traced to the production or the application of vaccines. (5) The legislative control measures are not sufficient to prevent secondary outbreaks. It was recommended to extend the quarantine areas as well as the radius of ring vaccination and to prolong the period of quarantine. (6) The regulation of tremendous losses of trade is obscure because camouflage of the origin of infections blocks the application of the principle of ultimate responsibility. Facit: Eradication of the disease and strict prevention of its introduction into Europe should be the principal strategy of FMD control for the future instead of imperfect protecting one species of the susceptible animal population.