江西省主要森林可燃物失水率变化规律研究

可燃物失水率快慢是反映燃烧快慢的内在指标之一。本项目采集17种江西省主要针叶、常绿阔叶及灌木树种的枝、叶进行失水率测定分析,得出不同树种不同组分失水率以树叶大于树枝,且日间变化幅度也较树枝更大;并利用多元统计方法,建立不同可燃物类型失水率模型,日失水率与当日14时相对湿度呈显著负相关。研究结果可为森林火险预报提供可靠信息,对提高林火管理水平,保护森林资源等均具有重要的意义。     

Investment,reinvestment, and the social discount rate for forestry

The nature of relationships between private rates of return and social rates of discount prevents the latter being derived from the former. Past government investments indicate only an upper bound to social discount rate (sdr), while rules to derive the sdr from the rates of return on acceptable and unacceptable potential projects need very careful formulation. These rules assume the rationality of governments, which can only be justified if constraints on funding are also assumed. But where such constraints exist, sdr will not be implied by rates of return anyway. It may be necessary, and it is always desirable, to derive an sdr independently on the basis of expected economic growth. Under constrained funding, similar methods should be applied in valuing public and private investment funds. Explicit account should be taken of the nature and extent of reinvestment.     

Precision Fire Hazard Divisions for Collective Forest in Southern China

This paper focuses on how to build the model of precision fire hazard divisions in the level of forest resources sub-compartment.Based on 3D GIS technology and characteristics of forest fires in collective forest of southern China,this study utilized Lin’an City,Zhejiang Province as the experimental area.Forest fire factors were divided into 11 indexes from the three categories(social and economic factors,forestry characteristics,and meteorological characteristics) and weighted for analysis.Next,three eigenvectors(one for each category) were created to build a nonlinear mathematical model called precision fire hazard divisions for forests.Then,the model was used to optimize and test forest fire hazard divisions with the least squares.Results showed that experimental and theoretical values of error were less than 0.1. Thus,in the experimental area this model and the fire occurrence history matched.     

刍议四川省退耕还林工程建设成效

从生态、经济和社会角度初步分析了四川省退耕还林工程建设成效。文章认为：退耕还林是一项得人心、顺民意的德政工程、民心工程。随着时间的延续和工程建设的逐步推进，工程产生的效益将会越来越显著。     

公益林建设应注意的问题和坚持的原则

文章结合当前林业生态工程阐述了公益林建设中应注意的问题和须坚持的原则。强调指出公益林建设要坚持生态系统的恢复和构建 ,要以原生生态系统为模式进行规划设计和建设。建议各地区的生态建设要搞好总体规划 ,要强调社区民众自觉参与 ,要协调好有关部门相关项目的工作。     

俄罗斯森林火灾现状统计分析

文中分阶段统计了1950~2000年俄罗斯森林火灾发生的次数和面积, 详细分析了1990~2003年森林火灾状况, 并且讨论了森林火灾产生的原因。森林火灾分级、特点、防火组织机构、研究现状和林火管理的改进措施也在文中进行了介绍。     

The Determination of Risk Adjusted Discount Rates for Private Sector Forestry Investment

In forestry economics a great deal of attention has been givento the choice of discount rate when this activity has been constitutedas part of the public sector investment portfolio. In contrast,little attention has been paid to the discount rate that shouldbe used when afforestation is considered as part of a portfolioof investments in the private sector. There are major difficulties,both practical and methodological, in determining the discountrate that should be applied to private as opposed to publicsector afforestation projects. The central purpose of this paperis thus to derive the appropriate discount rate for privatesector forestry with attention focused primarily on risk adjusteddiscount rates of the type applied in commercial capital budgeting.The relevant risk adjusted rates are then employed to assessthe viability of a 28.5 ha private sector afforestation standbased on Oceanic forestry technology. The afforestation projectis assessed under the differing tax and grant anangements introducedin 1988, available within the Farm Woodland Scheme and the WoodlandGrant Scheme. The analysis finally concludes that the use ofa risk adjusted discount rate leads to forestry, under bothschemes, being characterized as a profitable venture.     

国家储备林PPP项目风险识别研究

文章以国家储备林PPP项目的风险识别为分析对象,提出系统的风险管理要求和风险分析识别,并采取定量的方法确定风险因素,构建了风险分担机制。在国家储备林PPP项目中社会资本方与公共部门之间的期待与目标并不一致的情况下,通过分析国家储备林PPP项目以往6个失败案例中的失败原因和风险因素,掌握过去有关项目中分担不明确的风险,从而识别现有可参考的风险分担方案中分担不统一的风险,再通过风险层级的划分,确定风险管理的优先顺序,并最终确定风险的影响对象与风险承担方。     

对我国森林重点火险区建设的探讨

分析了我国森林重点火险区建设现状和存在的主要问题,从完善防火阻隔系统和林火瞭望监测系统,提高队伍专业化水平和装备水平等方面,提出了如何进一步提升我国森林重点火险区森林火灾防控综合能力的主要对策。     

林火图像测量中的火场边缘提取技术

对火场边缘的自动提取技术进行研究,通过线性分类器进行图像分割,实现火场边缘的自动提取.结果表明:由于火焰和其他物体差别较大,完全可以用线性分类器实现火场边缘的自动提取,从而为林火行为的自动分析测量系统的研究提供基础技术支持.     

Misinterpreting the Internal Rate of Return in Sustainable Forest Management Planning and Economic Analysis

Sustainable forest management planning includes accounting for revenues and costs that accrue throughout time. While debate continues as to the how to account for these cash flows, the most used techniques are net present value, benefit cost ratios, and internal rate of return (irr). Managing forests sustainably depends critically on interpreting the results and management implications of these techniques accurately. It is appealing to equate the irr with a market-derived rate of return given its definition. Unfortunately, its mathematical derivation does not support this interpretation and past use of irr often illustrates this confusion and misinterpretation. The irr only reflects the amount and timing of the net cash flows for a given venture and does not include any social, economic, or other external factors found in market-derived discount rates. Therefore, the irr does not reflect an appropriate rate of return or opportunity cost of capital for sustainable forest management. My purpose is to provide a theoretical argument that can be used to help correct this misinterpretation and stimulate discussions on the economics of sustainable forest management.     

森林防火决策支持系统的开发

森林防火决策支持系统采用ArcEngine技术进行开发．在分析了ArcEngine组件特点的基础上,重点介绍了上饶市森林防火决策支持系统的设计与实现．系统的建立和使用将为森林防火管理提供及时、可靠的信息支持,极大地提高森林防火管理的效率和现代化水平．     

森林火灾数量特征和火灾保险率的数学模拟

森林火灾保险是国内新设的保险种类,保险费率的确定是一个值得研究的问题。本文通过对福建省某地区火灾资料的分析,得出了年火灾发生次数和每次受灾面积的概率分布模型,应用计算机仿真技术(Monte-carlo方法)模拟了一定时期内年火灾次数和面积,并根据保险费率计算的有关理论和依据,确定了森林火灾保险费率的合理取值。     

投资项目动态经济分析中必须考虑的问题

在投资项目净现值的计算中,根据未来可能出现的情况对现金流量和贴现率的测算都应该进行及时修正,才能提高经济可行性评价的准确性和可靠性,有效地避免投资风险。并针对我国中、小企业的现状,阐述了企业基础管理、市场调研和预测、国内国际经济信息的掌握等都是影响项目现金流量和贴现率的主要因素。     

新形势下森林资产评估难点及其评估方法探讨

在当前全国林权制度主体改革完成及商品林业向生态林业转变的新形势下，生态公益林灾害及人为破坏损失价值、森林生态效能货币价值、森林景观价值、速生丰产幼林及果前期经济林等收益高且见效快的商品林价值的评估方法，以及资产量化模型的建立和资本化率的确定等，无疑是森林资产评估的新难点，针对这些难点问题，提出对应的解决方法。     

森林火灾损失分类方法和评估指标评述

构建合理的损失分类方法才能采用科学的评估指标进行森林火灾损失评估。本文在研究国内外关于森林火灾损失分类评估体系的基础上,结合相关学科的知识,引入＂系统＂的概念,重新提出森林火灾损失的术语和具体的损失分类方法。新的损失分类方法体系共三级,其中一级分类为固有性系统损失、注入补偿性系统损失和效应性系统损失;二级分类为固有生物量损失、固有非生物量损失、趋利注入性损失、避害补偿性损失、社会效益损失和生态效益损失。新的术语和分类方法着力对森林火灾重要损失做全面统计,避免漏估和重复估计,为日后科学、合理和有效的森林火灾损失评估提供基础依据。     

生物防火工程抗林火测试总结报告

以生土带防火线和生物防火林带组成的生物防火工程,用以阻止和阻隔地表火蔓延和林冠火(飞火)的飞窜入侵,生物防火林带经7年管护后,平均树高4.45m,郁闭度0.90时,实地抗林火测试表明,以木荷为主体的防火林带在生土带的共同作用下,具有较好的阻隔林火功能。参试木荷受损率6.67%～13.39%且无重度受损。     

森林防火规划编制分析*

森林防火规划是一项科学性和技术性很强的工作,可全面提升我国森林防火综合能力,消除森林火灾隐患,巩固生态文明建设成果,保护人民群众生命财产安全。文章介绍了森林防火规划的常规编制方法,剖析了森林防火应急道路建设、以水灭火设施建设、林火阻隔带建设和森林防火指挥中心建设等主要内容。     

Changes in wildfire severity from maritime pine woodland to contiguous forest types in the mountains of northwestern Portugal

Large and severe wildfires are now widespread in the Mediterranean Basin. Fire severity is important to ecosystem properties and processes and to forest management but it has been neglected by wildland fire research in Europe. In this study, we compare fire severity between maritime pine (PS) woodland and other forest (OF) types, identify other variables influent on fire severity, and describe its variation. We sampled contiguous, paired stands of PS and OF cover types – including deciduous and evergreen broadleaves and short-needled mountain conifers – that burned under very high to extreme fire danger in northwestern Portugal. Data on stand characteristics and fire severity metrics were collected in plots along transects perpendicular to the PS–OF boundary. Fire severity was rated in separate for the tree canopy, understorey vegetation and forest floor layers, and then an average (composite) fire severity rating was calculated. Fire intensity inferred from stem char height (adjusted for the effects of other factors) was highest in PS, followed by deciduous broadleaved woodland and short-needled conifer forest. With a few exceptions, all fire severity ratings were significantly different between PS and OF at all sites. Most fire severity metrics and ratings were correlated. The distance for fire severity minimization did not differ between OF types (median = 21 m). Variation in composite fire severity was accounted for by a classification tree (R² = 0.44) based on cover type (contributing with 51% to the overall explanation), stand variables, aspect, distance to the PS–OF edge and fire spread pattern. Except for a more immediate decline in deciduous broadleaves, fire severity rating was not affected by OF type and tended to decrease in more mature stands and moister aspects. The fire severity moderation from PS to OF was compounded by a dominant pattern of down slope fire propagation into moister topographical positions, exacerbating the fuel effect implicit in the cover type change. The results are consistent with fire hazard and fire incidence studies and support conventional knowledge that advocates the expansion of broadleaved deciduous or evergreen forest as a means to achieve more fire-resilient ecosystems and landscapes.     

Economic vulnerability of fire-prone landscapes in protected natural areas: application in a Mediterranean Natural Park

Environmental services and landscape goods are rarely incorporated into economic valuation of natural resources, even though these resources may constitute a large proportion of the total ecosystem value, mainly in natural protected areas. The frequent occurrence of wildfires in Spanish protected areas requires a tool, which allows for the comprehensive management of landscape resource and mitigating the potential economic impacts caused by fire. In this paper, we extend the economic valuation theory to the concept of economic vulnerability. Geographic Information System was used to develop a framework for landscape impact assessment using annual landscape value, vegetation resilience and fire behavior. An economic approach of landscape susceptibility was provided by the integration of these three components. Once landscape susceptibility had been spatially characterized, landscape vulnerability was analyzed from criteria associated with landscape susceptibility and burn probability. There was a notable variation in landscape vulnerability ranging from 412,000 Euros to 1,200,000 Euros in Aracena Natural Park (186,828 ha) according to the selected contingent valuation scenario. The availability of cartography of landscape vulnerability could play a critical role in budget optimization and the decision-making process. In this sense, this approach helps managers to identify different efforts according to spatial distribution of the risk and fuel management strategies to increase economic efficiency of fire prevention activities.