森林资源资产评估中多方法验证

为了使森林资源资产评估过程更加科学,评估结果更加客观,通过多种方法计算比较分析验证发现,林业上的传统成本法与其它行业的不一样,未考虑经营合理利润,其评估值只是投资的价值,而不是投资价值。结果表明：森林资源资产评估中的成本法的折现率应该使用项目内部收益率,而不是待业基准收益率,通过这样的修正,使用一套指标,分别运用成本法...     

森林资源资产评估中折现率的选择

折现率对森林资源资产评估结果至关重要。折现率体现着特定经济主体的时间价值取向，反映投资者所要求的收益率水平。笔者认为，实践中可运用资本市场中各种证券投资收益率以及相对风险系数，或者可运用林业投资的平均盈利能力等数据来确定林业投资者所要求的收益率水平，并考虑财务杠杆效应对其作出修正，以帮助正确选择森林资源资产评估中适用的折现率。     

池杉造林效益的分析与评价

本文一反传统的静态分析方法，介绍了林业项目经济效益评价的动态方法。并对江苏省宝应湖农场池杉林的经济效益进行了预测和分析，结果表明，在达到主伐年龄时，每公顷的财务净现值（确定收益率为１２％）为５０８２９．９６元，远远大于造林投资。财务内部收益率为２２．７％，是社会基准收益率的１．８９倍，获利能力很强。敏感性分析表明，当木材产量、木材价格分别降低１０％，经营成本提高１０％的情况下，其内部收益率仍高达２１％，远大于社会基准收益率，说明项目经营风险很小．     

浅析森林资源资产评估投资收益率的确定

结合森林资源资产评估工作实践,阐述了投资收益率的定义及构成,分析了投资收益率对森林资源资产评估值的影响,对森林资源资产评估投资收益率的确定方法进行了探讨。     

利用野生酸枣嫁接大枣的早期经济效益分析

利用山区野生酸枣改接优良枣树品种,早期进行粮枣间作．其内部收益率远远高于社会折现率,净现值比高,投资回收期短,效益成本比高。     

经济林资产评估的研究

基于经济林生长经营的特点,以年均纯收益Zu代替未来每年所预估的收益值,采用资产评估方法中的收益法评估经济林资产,并以柑桔为例,探讨了该方法在评估中的实际应用,分析了产品价格、产量、生产经营成本、折现率和经济寿命期等主要经济指标对评估值的影响作用。     

建设项目资金筹措的不同方式与基准收益率的研究

文章就净现值 (NPV)与基准收益率 (MARR)的函数关系 ,进行理论分析与研究 ,在投资项目活动中 ,对自有资金和借贷两种不同筹资方式进行了决策     

柚木优良种源、家系选择的经济效益评价

在柚木优良种源、家系选择试验研究的基础上,对选择结果分别以最优、中等和最差3类,依国家现行财税制度,采用"投资方案经济评价的方法"进行财务与经济效益动态分析评价.结果表明:最优种源和最优家系,其动态回收期为9.45 a和9.46 a,其财务内部收益率(以累计净现值计算)为16.46%和16.06%,均大于12%的折现率.最优种源的效益成本比,15 a时即达2.58,20 a生产周期时达到5.25,是中等水平的1.37~1.43倍,每公顷净收入是中等水平的1.56~1.64倍,最优家系在20 a的生产周期时,其效益成本比和每公顷净收入是中等水平的1.63倍和1.96倍.分析结果证明,柚木优良种源和家系的推广应用不仅经济合理可行,且效益显著.     

白石山森林公园滑雪场建设条件及效益分析

对吉林省白石山国家级森林公园滑雪场建设条件、财务状况和不确定性因素进行了分析,结果表明:建设地点具有明显的区位优势,冰雪资源丰富,客源市场广阔;财务内部收益率高于行业基准收益率,投资回收期低于行业基准投资回收期,财务盈利能力及抗风险能力较强.滑雪场建设十分必要并且可行.     

珍贵树种大径材林培育建设项目经济评价

对汪清林业局珍贵树种大径材林培育基地建设项目进行动态经济分析与评价,结果表明:项目计算期的财务内部收益率为20.04%;财务净现值(ic=8.00%)为1 299.79万元;投资回收期为10.5 a。当销售收入下降10%时,内部收益率为8.02%;当经营成本上升10%时,内部收益率为12.86%;当建设投资上升10%时,内部收益率为16.02%,均高于行业基准收益率的临界值8%,项目具有较强的抗风险能力。     

Misinterpreting the Internal Rate of Return in Sustainable Forest Management Planning and Economic Analysis

Sustainable forest management planning includes accounting for revenues and costs that accrue throughout time. While debate continues as to the how to account for these cash flows, the most used techniques are net present value, benefit cost ratios, and internal rate of return (irr). Managing forests sustainably depends critically on interpreting the results and management implications of these techniques accurately. It is appealing to equate the irr with a market-derived rate of return given its definition. Unfortunately, its mathematical derivation does not support this interpretation and past use of irr often illustrates this confusion and misinterpretation. The irr only reflects the amount and timing of the net cash flows for a given venture and does not include any social, economic, or other external factors found in market-derived discount rates. Therefore, the irr does not reflect an appropriate rate of return or opportunity cost of capital for sustainable forest management. My purpose is to provide a theoretical argument that can be used to help correct this misinterpretation and stimulate discussions on the economics of sustainable forest management.     

松脂资源资产评估方法初探

松香工业要持续发展，就必须实行资源有偿使用制度，解决资源培育、木材生产与松脂生产之间的矛盾。松脂资源作为森林资源的一种衍生性资源，应以是否开发利用作为其成为资产的前提，其评估可以采用重置成本法、收益损失法、收益现值法。文章用重置成本法、收益损失法对始兴县松脂资源单位面积资产价值进行了评估，其松脂资源资产价值两者差异不大。     

黑木相思与速生桉商品用材林培育的经济效益对比分析

以国家开发银行贷款建设200 hm²黑木相思与速生桉用材林培育为例,采用动态经济分析方法进行财务净现值、内部收益率等指标及投资不确定性分析,研究两者投资经营的经济效益。结果表明,计算期（13a）内,黑木相思和速生桉用材林的内部收益率、投资利润率和资本金利润率均高于行业基准收益率（8%）,项目可行。黑木相思的财务净现值、内部收益率高于速生桉,其经济效益好,盈利能力和抗风险能力强。     

银行授信风险视角的我国林业产业资产证券化融资模式探析

林业产业资产证券化是一种重要的金融创新,是化解林业产业融资困境的重要手段.文中从银行授信风险角度出发,提出把林业产业和资产证券化技术结合起来,通过银行在资本市场认购资产支持证券的方式,为林业产业提供资金支持;基于我国林业产业特点,设计了5种林业产业资产证券化融资模式,即林权收益权资产证券化、林业财政补贴资产证券化、林业...     

Effect of land prices,transportation costs,and site productivity on timber investment returns for pine plantations in Colombia

The relative importance of land costs, site quality, and forest location are major concerns in forestry investments, but little research has been done to assess the impacts of these or other factors on financial returns. In response to this issue, the effects of land prices, wood transportation costs, site productivity, and discount rates on timber investment returns for pine plantations in the Andean Region in Colombia were estimated. For all the scenarios analyzed, the internal rate of return varied between 6.4 and 15.6%. High site quality with high growth rates were profitable in all scenarios at real discount rates ranging from 8 to 12%, but low site qualities seldom had positive net present values. Less expensive land and locations close to mills had better rates of return. More distant locations, poor quality sites, or areas with high land costs generally did not meet the discount hurdle rates. Site quality, which is the factor most easily manipulated by intensive forest management and improved technology, was substantially more important than land prices and transportation differences in determining timber investment returns.     

Applying portfolio optimisation to the harvesting decisions of non-industrial private forest owners

The non-industrial private forest owner's optimal harvesting and investment strategies are studied at forest holding level by including individual forest stands in an asset class portfolio. The forest owner can either clearcut mature stands and invest the capital in financial or real asset classes (bank deposits, government bonds, stocks, apartments) or postpone clearcutting and retain capital in standing trees. Forest inventory data from actual forest holdings in Southwest Finland, the simulation–optimisation software MELA, and statistics on timber prices are utilised to compute the return series for forest stands. The numerical results show that the optimal level of clearcutting decreases markedly with initial non-forest wealth, especially at low risk-free rates of interest. It may therefore be rational for non-industrial private forest owners to consider shorter rotation periods than those of investors with diversified portfolios. The correlations between returns from forest stands are high, implying that increasing the variety of stand structures achieved by planting different species is not likely to bring substantial diversification benefits. The favoured investment outlet for harvesting revenues (apartments, government bonds or stocks) is sensitive to the period of historical data used to compute the return series and risk-free rate of interest. The value growth of forest stand can be used to estimate annual returns only for those stands that are readily mature. An alternative method of computing returns on stands in any development phase is proposed, based on net present value of stand adjusted for fluctuations in forest land prices. This method applies if selling forest land is considered an option. If selling is not an option, the ratio of maximised net present value to value at immediate harvest can be used as a ‘maturity index’ for ranking the stands for portfolio optimisation.     

基于林业政策的商品林经营投资收益与投资风险研究

对商品林经营的投资收益率和投资风险进行测定,分析林业政策以及不同因素对投资收益率和投资风险的影响,进而认识林业政策以及不同因素对商品林经营投资的决策行为的影响.分析得出:现有的政策条件还无法改变商品林经营相对投资收益率低、投资风险大的基本状况,对商品林经营的投资还不能产生足够的激励.     

Investment Potential of Private Forests in Croatia

This paper presents a comprehensive financial analysis of the investment potential of seven private forest categories in the Republic of Croatia (total study area of 268,072 ha). It covers the period from 2018 to 2048 and includes forest purchase costs, management simulation, timber transport to mills, timber processing and veneer production, and finally the selling of sawmill, veneer and forest products. Data from the Croatian National Forest Inventory and forest habitats map were used as a basis for analyses. Spatial data on private forests, roads and timber process plants at the national level were also integrated into the analyses. For the forest management simulation, the MOSES 3.0 simulator was used, and the QGis 3.4 software was used for spatial analyses of forests, roads and mils. Based on data from several world stock exchanges that cover companies of the forestry sector, a real (inflation-free) discount rates were used. The financial analyses showed which forest categories have positive investment potential and under which conditions. Results pointed out that multi-aged European beech forests have the highest internal rate of return (8.45%) and are the only one which would meet the expectations of a financially rational investor using criteria of a risk-adjusted inflation-free discount rate of 8%.     

The Japanese pulp and paper industry: an analysis of financial performance from 1991 to 2001

This article discusses the determinants of profitability expressed as return on capital among Japanese pulp and paper companies. Return on capital is measured as income before tax related to stockholders’ equity. Return on capital has been divided into profit margin and asset utilization rate. The hypothesis is that return on capital can be explained by mill size, productivity, product line, financial situation, and use of wood resources. The dataset consists of 13 larger Japanese pulp and paper companies listed in Pulp &; Paper Statistics. Data on financial performance, production, and use of wood fibers were collected for the period 1991–2001. The average return on equity for the studied companies is 4.2%. Labor productivity has increased quite significantly, from about 600 to 1,000 kg/employee and year. An econometric analysis indicates that the best model fit is found when the asset utilization rate is used as the dependent variable. Significant variables are, among others, asset utilization rate lagged one time period (?), labor productivity (+), capital productivity (?), paper production as a share of total paper and board production (?), total value of assets on the books (?) and solidity (+). This may indicate that the total value of assets on the books is large in relation to the total production of paper, paperboard and pulp.