Future impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in northeastern China

Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991-2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.     

Potential impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems

Review of literature indicates that many uncertainties and assumptions exist in predicting the impacts of a climate change on forest ecosystems. However, current knowledge is sufficient to encourage any measures that are combating climate change, that is to reduce first and foremost the release of harmful substances to the atmosphere, lithosphere and biosphere.     

吉林市森林火灾损失的价值评估及森林防火工作的展望

本文通过对吉林市连续２０年森林火灾损失的价值评估测算,从中可以看出,由于２０年来的有效保护,未发生重、特大森林火灾,给吉林市旅游、环保业及农牧业等方面都带来了具大的、潜在的社会效益、生态效益。     

Selecting tree species for testing climate change migration hypotheses using forest inventory data

The lack of objective tree species lists hinders the assessment of climate change effects on tree species distributions. The goal of this study was to develop and evaluate criteria for selecting tree species used in large-scale tree migration monitoring efforts. The results of this study indicate that tree migration conclusions are highly dependant on the species selected for examination. It was found that tree species’ median latitudes or forecasted future areas provided objective criteria for development of species lists for migration hypothesis testing with the latter being insensitive to simulation error. Furthermore, only 10–15 of the top species, in terms of high median latitudes or loss in forecasted future area, are needed to maximize the sensitivity of a migration index. The use of such criteria in this study indicated a northward shift of sensitive tree populations of 27 km. It is suggested that examining species only the most likely to migrate serves as an objective starting point for migration detection. In contrast, the inclusion of all tree species commonly observed in large-scale forest inventories can obfuscate migration detection with tree species that have little ecological reason to immediately migrate in a changing climate.     

Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model

Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However, the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics, especially at the landscape or regional level, has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming, more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time, stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models.     

Multiple-use forest management in consideration of climate change and the interests of stakeholder groups

In this study, the overall utility of forest management alternatives at the forest management unit level is evaluated with regard to multi-purpose and multi-user settings by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is based on an additive utility model. The relative importance of partial objectives of forest management (carbon sequestration, ground water recharge, biodiversity, and timber production) is defined in cooperation with stakeholders. The forest growth model 4C (Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) is used to simulate the impact of six forest management strategies and climate on forest functions. Two climate change scenarios represent uncertainties with regard to future climatic conditions. The study is based on actual forest conditions in the Kleinsee management unit in east Germany, which is dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and oak (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea Liebl.) stands. First, there is an analysis of the impact of climate and forest management on forest functions. Climate change increases carbon sequestration and income from timber production due to increased stand productivity. Secondly, the overall utility of the management strategies is compared under the priority settings of different stakeholder groups. From an ecological perspective, a conservation strategy would be preferable under all climate scenarios, but the business as usual management would also fit the expectations under the current climate due to high biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In contrast, a forest manager in public-owned forests or a private forest owner would prefer a management strategy with an intermediate thinning intensity and a high share of pine stands to enhance income from timber production while maintaining the other forest functions.     

大气CO2升高和气候变化对森林的影响——国内近五年研究概况

本概述了国内过去５年中,在大气ＣＯ２倍增和气候变化条件下,对树木个体,森林生产力,森植被带影响的研究。     

Forest fire in India: a review of the knowledge base

Forest fire has profound impacts on atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem structure. This feedback interaction may be hastened in climate change scenarios. In view of this, the present day knowledge about the forest fire condition in India has been reviewed. Operational monitoring, geospatial modelling and climate change uncertainties are discussed. Indicators for forest fire assessment and the role of geoinformatics tools in developing those parameters are identified. The need for developing an adaptive management strategy from the existing experience is emphasized, and specific points are recommended sector-wise with short- and long-term visions.     

Exploring adaptation to climate change in the forests of central Nova Scotia, Canada

The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.     

The effect of forest fire on streamflow in Daxing’an Mountains

Based on the data obtained by single watershed experiment, the changes in streamflow by forest fire had been studied. The results showed the most forest fire in Daxing’an Mountains in 1987 resulted in the increase of annual runoff in the initial stage, snowmelt runoff reduced in May. The relationship between precipitation and streamflow was closed. The changes in streamflow relied more on the precipitation.     

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

When included as part of a larger greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction program, forest offsets may provide low-cost opportunities for GHG mitigation. One barrier to including forest offsets in climate policy is the risk of reversal, the intentional or unintentional release of carbon back to the atmosphere due to storms, fire, pests, land use decisions, and many other factors. To address this shortcoming, a variety of different strategies have emerged to minimize either the risk or the financial and environmental implications of reversal. These strategies range from management decisions made at the individual stand level to buffers and set-asides that function across entire trading programs. For such strategies to work, the actual risk and magnitude of potential reversals need to be clearly understood. In this paper we examine three factors that are likely to influence reversal risk: natural disturbances (such as storms, fire, and insect outbreaks), climate change, and landowner behavior. Although increases in atmospheric CO₂ and to a lesser extent warming will likely bring benefits to some forest ecosystems, temperature stress may result in others. Furthermore, optimism based on experimental results of physiology and growth must be tempered with knowledge that future large-scale disturbances and extreme weather events are also likely to increase. At the individual project level, management strategies such as manipulation of forest structure, age, and composition can be used to influence carbon sequestration and reversal risk. Because some management strategies have the potential to maximize risk or carbon objectives at the expense of the other, policymakers should ensure that forest offset policies and programs do not provide the singular incentive to maximize carbon storage. Given the scale and magnitude of potential disturbance events in the future, however, management decisions at the individual project level may be insufficient to adequately address reversal risk; other, non-silvicultural strategies and policy mechanisms may be necessary. We conclude with a brief review of policy mechanisms that have been developed or proposed to help manage or mitigate reversal risk at both individual project and policy-wide scales.     

火干扰对森林水文的影响

Fire is quite a common natural phenomenon closely related to forest hydrology in forest ecosystem. The influence of fire on water is indirectly manifested in that the post fire changes of vegetation, ground cover, soil and environment affect water cycle, water quality and aquatic lives. The effect varies depending upon fire severity and frequency. Light wildland fires or prescribed burnings do not affect hydrology regime significantly but frequent burnings or intense fires can cause changes in hydrology regime similar to that caused clear cutting.     

森林高火险预警的探讨

统计分析了句容市森林火灾情况，探讨了进行森林火险预报思路、因子初选及资料的分析处理，预报因子的筛选，建立线性方程组，求解预报方程并采用威尔克斯方法进行了判别函数总效果检验，最后提出了预报决策。     

Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: Implications for fire management in a changing climate

Predicted changes to global climates are expected to affect natural fire regimes. Many studies suggest that the impact of these effects could be minimised by reducing fuel loads through prescribed burning. Fuel loads are dynamic and are affected by a range of factors including fire and climate. In this study, we use a 22-year dataset to examine the relative influence of climate and fire history on rates of litterfall and decomposition, and hence fuel loads, in a coastal Eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Litterfall and decomposition were both affected by temperature, recent rainfall and fire history variables. Over the study period prescribed burning immediately reduced fuel loads, with fuel loads reaching pre-burn levels within 3 years of a fire. Modelling fuel loads under predicted climate change scenarios for 2070 suggests that while fuel loads are reduced, the levels are not significantly lower than those recorded in the study. Based on these predictions it is unlikely that the role or value of prescribed burning in these forests will change under the scenarios tested in this study.     

林火发生对土壤集中酶活性变化的影响

对贵州兴仁梨树坪林场杉木林林火影响下土壤的酶活性进行了研究,结果表明:林火对林地土壤的酶活性会产生极显著的影响.在林火发生的初期,土壤酶活性受到了抑制,之后土壤酶活性得到显著促进,土壤中养分的释放得到加强,但同时也抑制了土壤腐殖物质的积累过程,因此林火发生之后需要及时进行林地清理,并及时补栽造林,以保持林地土壤肥力的可...     

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Württemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios.     

The climate change and forestry of Heilongjiang Province in 1990’s

The background of global climate change was briefly summarized. The comprehensive effects of various factors, including seawater temperature, sunspots’ activities, volcanic explosion, CO₂ concentration change, O₃ concentration change and characteristics of atmospheric circulation index, on the climate change of Heilongjiang Province were analyzed. The tendency of climate change of Heilongjiang in the next 10 years was predicted according to the data of historical climate collected form passed 100 years and the above analysis. The climate of Heilongjiang Province in the next 10 years will be mainly wann and dry. There will be still annual fluctuation. Although the general tendency of climate change accords with global climate change, the regional characteristic is also distinctive. The probable influence of climate change on forestry was put forward and forestry response strategy was elementary discussed.     

Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (temperature, precipitation, drought, wind etc.). Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700?4500 m). 100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model), genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate conifer, Subtropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests). Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios, current scenario, changed precipitation (8% increase), changed temperature (1.07°C increase), and both changed temperature and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.     

The effects of topography on forest soil characteristics in the Oregon Cascade Mountains (USA): Implications for the effects of climate change on soil properties

Forest soil measurements were made at over 180 sites distributed throughout the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in the Oregon Cascade Mountains. The influences of both elevation and aspect on soil variables were measured in the early (1998) and late summer (1994). Increased elevation significantly increased soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, soil organic matter, labile C and mineralizable N, microbial activities, extractable ammonium, and denitrification potentials. In contrast, bulk density, pH and soil temperature (1998 only) were significantly lower at the higher elevations. Relative to labile C, mineralizable N was preferentially sequestered at higher elevations. Aspect significantly affected annual mean temperature and precipitation, soil moisture and temperature, soil organic matter, mineralizable N, extractable ammonium, denitrification, and microbial activities. There were no significant higher statistical interactions between elevation and aspect on climatic or soil factors. Soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation at higher elevations is likely driven by a reduction in decomposition rates rather that an increase in primary productivity, however, SOM accumulation on north facing slopes is probably due to both a decrease in decomposition and an increase in primary production. Models of climate change effects on temperate forest soils based on elevational studies may not apply to aspect gradients since plant productivity may not respond to temperature–moisture gradients in the same way across all topographical features.     

Estimation of the carbon storage of forest vegetation and carbon emission from forest fires in Heilongjiang Province,China

The forest resource of Heilongjiang province has important position in china. On the basis of the six times of national forest inventory data （1973-1976, 1977-1981, 1985-1988, 1989-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2003） surveyed by the Forestry Ministry of P. R. China from 1973 to 2003, the carbon storage of forests in Heilongjiang Province are estimated by using the method of linear relationship of each tree species between biomass and volume. The results show that the carbon storage of Heilongjiang forests in the six periods （1973-1976, 1977-1981, 1985-1988, 1989-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2003） are 7.164×10^8 t, 4.871×10^8 t, 5.094×10^8 t, 5.292×10^8 t, 5.594×10^8 t and 5.410×10^8 t, respectively., which showed a trend of decreasing in early time and then increasing. It indicated that Heilongjiang forests play an important role as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide during past 30 years. Based on the data of forest fires from 1980 to 1999 and ground biomass estimation for some forest types in Heilongjiang Province, it is estimated that the amount of mean annual consumed biomass of forests is 391758.65t-522344.95t, accounting for 6.4%-8.4% of total national consummation from forest fires, and the amount of carbon emission is 176 291.39t-235 055.23t, about 8% of total national emission from forest fires. The emission of CO2, CO, CH4 and NMHC from forest fires in Heilongjiang Province are estimated at 581761.6-775682.25 t, 34892.275-46523.04 t, 14091.11-18788.15 t and 6500-9000 t, respectively, every year.